Heritage Auctions Thread

[Bearcat-Doug | 5,105]

7 hours ago, chuppy44 said:

About $600 for a nice copy of Zelda with a few dings and $869,400 for a generic thin layer of cellophane.

I don't doubt that this has been brought up before, but couldn't someone just buy the factory that produced these seals for about that price?

Do I sound bitter?

A 9.0 CIB of that same variant probably wouldn't go over $1500, so it doesn't make a lot of sense to me either that an identical shrinkwrapped copy would bring $868,500 more. These prices don't make any sense to me when we are just a little over two years removed from people thinking it was crazy that a 9.4 gloss sticker Super Mario Bros sold for $100k. I'm guessing that million dollar asking price from Pawn Stars isn't so far fetched anymore.

[sp1nz | 612]

23 minutes ago, GPX said:

I don't like how "rich speculators" are all grouped into the one entity.

I mean, I consider myself part-collector, part-speculator, but come on...any sensible speculation does not involve the following formula:

- spend 2000% on a game (from previous value)

- then hope one day it goes up to 3000%

What happened to "buy low, sell high" principle?

I said more money than sense and über rich; richness is on a spectrum and I don't think I chucked every rich person into one entity. I don't have a problem with rich people or speculating, I have a problem with the obvious market manipulation that is happening. Sealed enthusiasts have been spending 4-5 figures for a long time on certain items but I don't think they are in the running for dropping high 6 figures for any one graded game, because they know better. I could be wrong.

3 minutes ago, jonebone said:

You also have to realize that people go in with each other sometimes, or that there are new companies that sell fractional sales of collectibles.

Not saying it'd be "easy", but one of those companies could buy that Zelda for $870k and then list it for $1M with fractional shares, say $100 a piece for 10,000 owners.  I bet those shares would sell out in a day, then the "market cap" on it is $1M.  The company who bought it gets back their investment and some and gets to pump it to the moon.

The sealed graded market on key titles is likely never cooling off.  What typically happens is one of these signature auctions goes off and everything close to relevant gets bought off ebay and then it cools for a bit until next signature auction.  I really thought some of these sales would underperform due to summer time lull and post-covid reopening but if that didn't do it then nothing will.

Great points and fractional shares are definitely pure investing. As a game collector I wouldn't ever want to co-own a game but these kinds of people who invest and speculate on the highest level (for better or for worse) definitely can and will do it. Still I imagine the ceiling is not super far away for a 870k Zelda, maybe we are talking of 2-5 million in x-yy years, if the madness continues. Lot of money to be made potentially but the risks are also extremely high from my point of view, since I believe the market is artificially catapulted into space from ground level. All you need is 2 people fighting over an item though and there's so much one can do to prop up their items value via shady tactics, such as having proxy shill bidder - maybe it's not smart to double dip on something you actually already own but dropping so much money to begin with feels like these people can gamble and keep their items relevant even if they are not. Let's also compare video games (a speculative market) to more established markets: the most expensive coin is like 10mil~, most expensive sports card is 5mil~ and most expensive comic book is 3mil~. From this lense it is like jet fuel had been injected into the video game investing - luckily this type of game collecting isn't for me and if it was then I wouldn't play with the sharks but look for sensible deals.

[GPX | 1,369]

5 minutes ago, sp1nz said:

I said more money than sense and über rich; richness is on a spectrum and I don't think I chucked every rich person into one entity. I don't have a problem with rich people or speculating, I have a problem with the obvious market manipulation that is happening. Sealed enthusiasts have been spending 4-5 figures for a long time on certain items but I don't think they are in the running for dropping high 6 figures for any one graded game, because they know better. I could be wrong.

Great points and fractional shares are definitely pure investing. As a game collector I wouldn't ever want to co-own a game but these kinds of people who invest and speculate on the highest level (for better or for worse) definitely can and will do it. Still I imagine the ceiling is not super far away for a 870k Zelda, maybe we are talking of 2-5 million in x-yy years, if the madness continues. Lot of money to be made potentially but the risks are also extremely high from my point of view, since I believe the market is artificially catapulted into space from ground level. All you need is 2 people fighting over an item though and there's so much one can do to prop up their items value via shady tactics, such as having proxy shill bidder - maybe it's not smart to double dip on something you actually already own but dropping so much money to begin with feels like these people can gamble and keep their items relevant even if they are not. Let's also compare video games (a speculative market) to more established markets: the most expensive coin is like 10mil~, most expensive sports card is 5mil~ and most expensive comic book is 3mil~. From this lense it is like jet fuel had been injected into the video game investing - luckily this type of game collecting isn't for me and if it was then I wouldn't play with the sharks but look for sensible deals.

I actually agreed with you, and was just expanding on the point. I also think the new group of people with the big end bids are a select group of hypists/manipulators. When they get bored or run out of cash to play with, prices will likely drop. Or in the least it will have to plateau at some point. 

And yep, sealed collectors have been spending 4-5 figures for several years already before WATA/HA party. The amount of these same sealed collectors currently spending 6 figures are likely to be in the 0-5%, is my educated guess. The rest are the new breed of “whoever they are”.

[Gulag Joe | 582]

Which title do you think will hit a million dollars? Will we see it in this auction? I think Super Mario 64 9.8 A++ has a chance.

[OptOut | 8,884]

11 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said:

Which title do you think will hit a million dollars? Will we see it in this auction? I think Super Mario 64 9.8 A++ has a chance.

[Dumars2001 | 164]

2 hours ago, Hammerfestus said:

My lucky day:)!!!!

[Dumars2001 | 164]

1 hour ago, jonebone said:

You also have to realize that people go in with each other sometimes, or that there are new companies that sell fractional sales of collectibles.

Not saying it'd be "easy", but one of those companies could buy that Zelda for $870k and then list it for $1M with fractional shares, say $100 a piece for 10,000 owners.  I bet those shares would sell out in a day, then the "market cap" on it is $1M.  The company who bought it gets back their investment and some and gets to pump it to the moon.

The sealed graded market on key titles is likely never cooling off.  What typically happens is one of these signature auctions goes off and everything close to relevant gets bought off ebay and then it cools for a bit until next signature auction.  I really thought some of these sales would underperform due to summer time lull and post-covid reopening but if that didn't do it then nothing will.

Spoken like a pro as usual.

[Dumars2001 | 164]

49 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said:

Which title do you think will hit a million dollars? Will we see it in this auction? I think Super Mario 64 9.8 A++ has a chance.

I also think the Mario 64 is going to go for a huge amount, but I don't see it surpassing the Zelda that just sold. If I had to say what game breaks the million dollar barrier, I am going to have to say an early print/high grade Nes Super Mario Bros will be the first game to go over a million.

[Caliboy24 | 47]

Well, if anyone missed out on the Zelda that sold yesterday. Here is another shot up for sale in my pic below

[OptOut | 8,884]

9 minutes ago, Caliboy24 said:

Well, if anyone missed out on the Zelda that sold yesterday. Here is another shot up for sale in my pic below

Wow, that's epic dude! Well done! You better put that money into a dream home or something, it's an unimaginable amount of money! 

[Caliboy24 | 47]

55 minutes ago, OptOut said:

Wow, that's epic dude! Well done! You better put that money into a dream home or something, it's an unimaginable amount of money! 

I wish it was mine . I was just reposting it from Comicconnect.

[inasuma | 1,203]

9 hours ago, Dumars2001 said:

Is a Non Rev A copy worth $851,000 more than an exact graded 9.0 Rev A copy

well i mean considering HA allows both the consigner and company executives to bid, it's impossible to know how much of the bidding is organic vs shill fat-pocket bidding.

[DefaultGen | 5,405]

1 hour ago, inasuma said:

well i mean considering HA allows both the consigner and company executives to bid, it's impossible to know how much of the bidding is organic vs shill fat-pocket bidding.

HA knows so much about this market that no one else does  They know what really sells to fat cat collectors, what sells back to cosigners, what they themselves buy, what bidding wars Rally and Otis are getting into, if these sales are going to all new people or the same 8 people are pumping them every week. People think Wata controls the market as the Wizard of Oz, but man Heritage has the most priceless information. In a market without even pop reports, imagine being the only one with the bidder history of the most expensive game ever sold.

Edited July 10, 2021 by DefaultGen

[DoctorEncore | 3,691]

I know it's been getting bad for a while, but this is just silly. I don't know how anyone can justify these prices. My brain simply cannot comprehend this madness. 

I suppose some people consider this investing and that's fine, but I'm not willing to change my mindset. Videogames will always be about having fun and sharing knowledge and experiences for me and I don't want to cross over into this weird world where they're just a commodity to be traded. I go to work to make money, I go to games to have fun.

[Estil | 1,265]

Video games are not for investing.  Stocks and bonds are for investing.  NO FEAR.

[inasuma | 1,203]

I mean, money is meant to be spent, yet people collect, grade, and invest it all the same. For something as widely loved and shared as video games it was just a matter of time.

[Bearcat-Doug | 5,105]

2 hours ago, DoctorEncore said:

I know it's been getting bad for a while, but this is just silly. I don't know how anyone can justify these prices. My brain simply cannot comprehend this madness. 

I suppose some people consider this investing and that's fine, but I'm not willing to change my mindset. Videogames will always be about having fun and sharing knowledge and experiences for me and I don't want to cross over into this weird world where they're just a commodity to be traded. I go to work to make money, I go to games to have fun.

This is true. The main reason that I got out of vintage baseball cards a few years back is due to the high prices. It was less of an issue of being able to afford them as it was having ridiculous amounts of money tied up in them took all of the fun out of it.

[GPX | 1,369]

4 hours ago, DoctorEncore said:

I know it's been getting bad for a while, but this is just silly. I don't know how anyone can justify these prices. My brain simply cannot comprehend this madness. 

I suppose some people consider this investing and that's fine, but I'm not willing to change my mindset. Videogames will always be about having fun and sharing knowledge and experiences for me and I don't want to cross over into this weird world where they're just a commodity to be traded. I go to work to make money, I go to games to have fun.

Now the mindset needs to change matey..

You go to games to make money, and work is more fun than buying 6-digit graded games!

(or keep having fun with games and stay out of the hype)

[tidaldreams | 654]

12 hours ago, jonebone said:

You also have to realize that people go in with each other sometimes, or that there are new companies that sell fractional sales of collectibles.

Not saying it'd be "easy", but one of those companies could buy that Zelda for $870k and then list it for $1M with fractional shares, say $100 a piece for 10,000 owners.  I bet those shares would sell out in a day, then the "market cap" on it is $1M.  The company who bought it gets back their investment and some and gets to pump it to the moon.

The sealed graded market on key titles is likely never cooling off.  What typically happens is one of these signature auctions goes off and everything close to relevant gets bought off ebay and then it cools for a bit until next signature auction.  I really thought some of these sales would underperform due to summer time lull and post-covid reopening but if that didn't do it then nothing will.

There were some underperformers like Hagane, Lufia 2, etc. Just not the Marios/Zeldas.

[tidaldreams | 654]

4 hours ago, Estil said:

Video games are not for investing.  Stocks and bonds are for investing.  NO FEAR.

Don't really agree with this. People can invest in whatever they want for whatever price they want. That's like saying people shouldn't be paying $300/share for GME or $60/share for AMC because those valuations don't tie to the company's fundamentals. 

Video games have performed better than many traditional asset classes over the last few years anyway. 

[GPX | 1,369]

16 minutes ago, tidaldreams said:

Don't really agree with this. People can invest in whatever they want for whatever price they want. That's like saying people shouldn't be paying $300/share for GME or $60/share for AMC because those valuations don't tie to the company's fundamentals. 

Video games have performed better than many traditional asset classes over the last few years anyway. 

Yep, I see nothing wrong with video games as an investment. But with the prices going at astronomical rates, you can’t mention it in the same breadth as a “collectible investment”.

People currently bidding that high in my opinion are:

- fake bidders/manipulators

- rich idiots

- smarter idiot selling to the next idiot with more cash, but effectively gambling

- not understanding market fluctuations and prices can come down

- any combination of the above

 

 

[Dumars2001 | 164]

13 hours ago, Gulag Joe said:

Which title do you think will hit a million dollars? Will we see it in this auction? I think Super Mario 64 9.8 A++ has a chance.

Well, you may be right after all! The SM64 is now at $396,000 with 15 hours to go. 

[inasuma | 1,203]

14 minutes ago, Dumars2001 said:

Well, you may be right after all! The SM64 is now at $396,000 with 15 hours to go. 

It’s nearly quadroupled in one day? What the actual fuck!

Edited July 11, 2021 by inasuma

[Amermoe | 150]

2 hours ago, tidaldreams said:

There were some underperformers like Hagane, Lufia 2, etc. Just not the Marios/Zeldas.

Lufia II was a "Made in Mexico", not even a first print "Made in Japan" something that I don't think many people realized or cared to talk about. I think it overperformed even at 9.8 A++. The Lufia franchise is not that popular and mainly appeals to fans of the games, it's also not that rare sealed. The Japan print mint sealed is much more rare. so seeing it go for what it went for just tells me those entering at those price points have no clue what they're doing.

[GPX | 1,369]

5 minutes ago, Amermoe said:

Lufia II was a "Made in Mexico", not even a first print "Made in Japan" something that I don't think many people realized or cared to talk about. I think it overperformed even at 9.8 A++. The Lufia franchise is not that popular and mainly appeals to fans of the games, it's also not that rare sealed. The Japan print mint sealed is much more rare. so seeing it go for what it went for just tells me those entering at those price points have no clue what they're doing.

Or they have a lot of clues, and price-jacking everything humanly possible.