jonebone | 1,307 Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 57 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said: If there are less than 30 (allegedly) sealed games graded (we don't know the breakdown of what is PC and what is red label), and more than half of those are trackable through heritage history, that 9.8 a++ has a very likely chance of being a 1/1 It's not a 1 of 1. There's at least a dozen VGA copies that would hit 9.6 A++ or 9.8 A++ as well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sp1nz | 610 Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 Super Mario 64 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulag Joe | 581 Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 25 minutes ago, jonebone said: It's not a 1 of 1. There's at least a dozen VGA copies that would hit 9.6 A++ or 9.8 A++ as well. I don't think eleven more theoretical copies in that condition existing will impact the price that was achieved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kell | 102 Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 I have one... which I guess is my point. How many more under the radar are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulag Joe | 581 Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 I think the population of collectors entering the hobby will exponentially outgrow the incoming population of under the radar 9.8 a++ future wata grades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inasuma | 1,191 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Gulag Joe said: If there are less than 30 (allegedly) sealed games graded (we don't know the breakdown of what is PC and what is red label), and more than half of those are trackable through heritage history, that 9.8 a++ has a very likely chance of being a 1/1 to be fair, the SM64 was a 1/2, as the auctioneer pointed out. so someone is sleeping on that other one. haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inasuma | 1,191 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 22 minutes ago, kell said: I have one... which I guess is my point. How many more under the radar are there. congrats on your new bay area trailer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gloves | 11,683 Administrator · Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumars2001 | 164 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 4 hours ago, Gulag Joe said: I called it! You should be taking the first flight to Vegas! You are on fire! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumars2001 | 164 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 (edited) I am absolutely shell-shocked by what just happened. SM64 is now the highest selling video game of all time! Just nuts to me. Main stream media/Social media is all over this sale already, which will only enflame the hobby more and bring more people/collectors/"investors" into the hobby. Edited July 12, 2021 by Dumars2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumars2001 | 164 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 isn't this a bargain these days? https://www.ebay.com/itm/124807338501?epid=56249257&hash=item1d0f18da05:g:HXYAAOSwMp9g6ypm&autorefresh=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptOut | 8,869 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 I TOLD you guys N64 was awesome. And yeah @Hammerfestus Heritage Auctions bidders are the DANKEST collectors around, no joke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GPX | 1,353 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 14 hours ago, DefaultGen said: Doing the math sometimes makes my brain hurt. Mathematically speaking, I would think in the equation there has to be some complex and imaginary numbers thrown in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GPX | 1,353 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 6 hours ago, Dumars2001 said: isn't this a bargain these days? https://www.ebay.com/itm/124807338501?epid=56249257&hash=item1d0f18da05:g:HXYAAOSwMp9g6ypm&autorefresh=true The problem this leads to in the current climate, is when someone asks “what’s a fair price for my X game in Y grade?” With heated arguing, we can conclude fairly it’s “anywhere between 4 digits to 7 digits”. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptOut | 8,869 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, GPX said: The problem this leads to in the current climate, is when someone asks “what’s a fair price for my X game in Y grade?” With heated arguing, we can conclude fairly it’s “anywhere between 4 digits to 7 digits”. Indeed, there is no "fair market price" at this present time for pretty much any sealed/graded HA level video game. That "market", as it currently functions, is ENTIRELY irrational and speculative, and so there is no such thing as true market value for any of those items. I'm not even NECESSARILY saying those recent sales are overpriced (although obviously I believe they are), because the next one that comes up for sale could hit THREE MILLION DOLLARS and it would seem no less ridiculous to me than what we just witnessed. That copy of Mario 64 may have sold for 1.5 million, but it doesn't make it or any equivalent copy "worth" that much, until the market stabilises and we have seen those sales upheld over time. Lets face it, the next one that comes up could just as easily sell for 3 million, HIT 5 million, or fall back to 1 million or 500,000. I honestly wouldn't be surprised at ANY of those outcomes, because the whole situation makes zero rational sense. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumars2001 | 164 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 32 minutes ago, OptOut said: Indeed, there is no "fair market price" at this present time for pretty much any sealed/graded HA level video game. That "market", as it currently functions, is ENTIRELY irrational and speculative, and so there is no such thing as true market value for any of those items. I'm not even NECESSARILY saying those recent sales are overpriced (although obviously I believe they are), because the next one that comes up for sale could hit THREE MILLION DOLLARS and it would seem no less ridiculous to me than what we just witnessed. That copy of Mario 64 may have sold for 1.5 million, but it doesn't make it or any equivalent copy "worth" that much, until the market stabilises and we have seen those sales upheld over time. Lets face it, the next one that comes up could just as easily sell for 3 million, HIT 5 million, or fall back to 1 million or 500,000. I honestly wouldn't be surprised at ANY of those outcomes, because the whole situation makes zero rational sense. I really like your assessment. It is very logical thinking. I think you 100% hit it on the dot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sp1nz | 610 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 (edited) For most collecting mediums the valuable items are things that appreciate over time and people didn't consider them valuable at the time because the data wasn't in yet f.ex. 1. This cartoon character became successful and is still going strong 50+ years after the fact. 2. This sports player is or was godlike. 3. This playing card's potential was realized after many years and it was never reprinted. And so forth. But for video games it now is: this character is the most popular character from the most popular game that sold the most copies. Wow did anyone buy that game and keep it sealed when it launched? They did? Wow sell it for 10 millions next year with plastic wrap because you forgot it in your closet or your uncle owns a shipping carton or whatever. It was never mystery to gamers that Super Mario Bros. is a great game. Though I'm not saying unopened SMB first print is common or even close but Super Mario 64, heck yeah. It's like Super Mario 64 became "the video game Action Comics #1" before "the actual video game Action Comics #1" got there and it definitely didn't deserve it in my opinion - though earlier records are still records, so Super Mario 64 got a lucky break in being the million breaker. Maybe in due time it would've made sense that Super Mario 64 is priced at that, if it became apparent that there is such a condition rarity but now it's just supremely absurd sale. Then again many other collectibles don't even come "sealed", so it's easier to have condition rarity be cranked up to eleven for video games. Maybe people have too much bitcoin, maybe the background devils are even nastier than I anticipated, maybe someone is just super dumb - options, options. Another huge thing I wonder about is this: what will happen with lower condition copies of Super Mario 64? Do 6.0s start selling for tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands, how harsh will the condition premium be? 1.5 million straight for couple decimals? I'm curious. Will high grade CIBs become tens of thousands worth... for a million++ seller, clear as water, good game since its inception. Well it's funny to observe from the sidelines. Maybe soon big sports collectors will jump in and pay millions for rare copies of sports games, when before it would've be 3-4 figure sales - just because they can pay it and want a thing. It'll be sports celebrities versus game mascots, who will flex the hardest, who will pay the craziest price, it'll be a competition unto itself. Hope not. People would buy dog excrement if it was touted as the newest art piece from a hyped auction house partner artist. I mean I recently put a Steam foil trading card for sale for 100€ AS A JOKE because I saw that one other card in the set sold twice for 60€... and it sold - I laughed for 5 minute straight, now the same shit is for sale at 10-12€ and is not selling (may I add that these prices are also insane and will come further down most likely to 1-3€ or just won't sell if they sit at the high prices). I also sold couple other cards in the set, I made 180€ profit on 3 cards and proceeded to spent it on the Steam Summer Sale. People are mad. Of course I am mad too for collecting digital cards to make digital badges with but it's like funny money thing and playing in a funny market on my favorite digital platform. The thing is for an oil sheikh it could've been funny money that he dumped on my cards but when I buy I look at the market graph, quantity on offer, gaps between prices, games popularity for future potential for increase or decrease in card price - more calculated than someone spending 10x or more today when he could spend 10x less tomorrow. The extra irony here is that if he felt time pressure to buy the cards, there still is one card in the set that hasn't even appeared in the market, so he played himself. But since he's rich he can spend as much as he wants whenever he wants and not care about the results too much. Edited July 12, 2021 by sp1nz 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumars2001 | 164 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 I also collect vintage Starwars and and below are some of the most expensive items that have ever sold since Starwars came out in 1977. As you can see, we are talking about some items that only 1 exist in the world and some of the items only probably less than 3 to 10 exist in the world, but these game sales recently have basically obliterated these prices that have taken almost 45 years to build up to. That Mario 64 could have bought all the items below and still have almost $300,000 hundred thousand dollars to spare to buy up even more rare and priceless Starwars items. The whole situation is really perplexing to say the least. This is from a website that I found: George Lucas’ Episode IV Panavision Camera ($625,000) Luke Skywalker’s Episode IV lightsaber ($240,000) Chewbacca film-ready head ($172,200) Boba Fett Figures (Up to $50,000) Vlix Action Figure Mint on Card ($58,888.80) Jawa with Vinyl Cape($10,000+) Marvel Comics Star Wars #1 (1977) 35 Cent Variant($11,000) Han Solo With Little Head And Blaster($4,000+) Obi-Wan, Darth Vader, Luke Skywalker with Double Telescoping Lightsaber($22,500) Carded Starwars 20 back Rocket Launcher Boba Fett $150,000 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptOut | 8,869 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, Dumars2001 said: I also collect vintage Starwars and and below are some of the most expensive items that have ever sold since Starwars came out in 1977. As you can see, we are talking about some items that only 1 exist in the world and some of the items only probably less than 3 to 10 exist in the world, but these game sales recently have basically obliterated these prices that have taken almost 45 years to build up to. That Mario 64 could have bought all the items below and still have almost $300,000 hundred thousand dollars to spare to buy up even more rare and priceless Starwars items. The whole situation is really perplexing to say the least. This is from a website that I found: George Lucas’ Episode IV Panavision Camera ($625,000) Luke Skywalker’s Episode IV lightsaber ($240,000) Chewbacca film-ready head ($172,200) Boba Fett Figures (Up to $50,000) Vlix Action Figure Mint on Card ($58,888.80) Jawa with Vinyl Cape($10,000+) Marvel Comics Star Wars #1 (1977) 35 Cent Variant($11,000) Han Solo With Little Head And Blaster($4,000+) Obi-Wan, Darth Vader, Luke Skywalker with Double Telescoping Lightsaber($22,500) Carded Starwars 20 back Rocket Launcher Boba Fett $150,000 Yeah man, I mean the ACTUAL camera George Lucas used while filming Star Wars, that's just IMMENSE you know, a real genuine piece of history. To think that someone just spent SIGNIFICANTLY more than DOUBLE that to buy a copy of Mario 64 is just ludicrous. I would REALLY love to know the identity of the person or people who just paid that ridiculous sum for Mario 64, I mean I PRESUME the identity will be revealed at some point. Whatever they were reasoning when we know that there are LOADS more Mario 64's out there waiting to hit the auction platter, I mean I would really love to know the thought process behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brickman | 3,919 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 33 minutes ago, OptOut said: I would REALLY love to know the identity of the person or people who just paid that ridiculous sum for Mario 64, I mean I PRESUME the identity will be revealed at some point. Whatever they were reasoning when we know that there are LOADS more Mario 64's out there waiting to hit the auction platter, I mean I would really love to know the thought process behind that. Ok Ok, I guess I better reveal it was me who bought it. I scored big on some dogecoin Elon hooked me up with before we dumped it all and watched all those Reddit suckers hold the bag for us. I’ll be selling fractional shares shortly, but I’ll let any VGS member get in on the ground floor for a low price. Also thinking of setting a live stream of the game sitting in its plastic tomb on a shelf doing absolutely nothing so nerds can wank over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GPX | 1,353 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 56 minutes ago, Dumars2001 said: I also collect vintage Starwars and and below are some of the most expensive items that have ever sold since Starwars came out in 1977. As you can see, we are talking about some items that only 1 exist in the world and some of the items only probably less than 3 to 10 exist in the world, but these game sales recently have basically obliterated these prices that have taken almost 45 years to build up to. That Mario 64 could have bought all the items below and still have almost $300,000 hundred thousand dollars to spare to buy up even more rare and priceless Starwars items. The whole situation is really perplexing to say the least. This is from a website that I found: George Lucas’ Episode IV Panavision Camera ($625,000) Luke Skywalker’s Episode IV lightsaber ($240,000) Chewbacca film-ready head ($172,200) Boba Fett Figures (Up to $50,000) Vlix Action Figure Mint on Card ($58,888.80) Jawa with Vinyl Cape($10,000+) Marvel Comics Star Wars #1 (1977) 35 Cent Variant($11,000) Han Solo With Little Head And Blaster($4,000+) Obi-Wan, Darth Vader, Luke Skywalker with Double Telescoping Lightsaber($22,500) Carded Starwars 20 back Rocket Launcher Boba Fett $150,000 This perfectly highlights why a lot of us are laughing hard at the current prices. You could be buying up all 9 of these rare Star Wars grails (with genuine rarity) and still have 300K spare, as opposed to buying 1 copy of Mario 64 WATA 9.8A++. Which seems to be the better deal here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GPX | 1,353 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 3 hours ago, OptOut said: That copy of Mario 64 may have sold for 1.5 million, but it doesn't make it or any equivalent copy "worth" that much, until the market stabilises and we have seen those sales upheld over time. Lets face it, the next one that comes up could just as easily sell for 3 million, HIT 5 million, or fall back to 1 million or 500,000. I honestly wouldn't be surprised at ANY of those outcomes, because the whole situation makes zero rational sense. I beg to differ, the situation currently makes a lot of sense. But only to those who can afford it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptOut | 8,869 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 1 minute ago, GPX said: I beg to differ, the situation currently makes a lot of sense. But only to those who can afford it. How can it make sense? I cannot comprehend the rational behind that price, not even in the slightest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulag Joe | 581 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, OptOut said: How can it make sense? I cannot comprehend the rational behind that price, not even in the slightest. Only 2 copies exist in that condition. Less than 60 sealed copies of Mario 64 exist and we don't know the breakdown of what is players choice and what is red label in those numbers. It's truly a rare game in every sense. And the media attention on these high dollar sales will certainly attract more high dollar buyers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptOut | 8,869 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said: Only 2 copies exist in that condition. Less than 60 sealed copies of Mario 64 exist and we don't know the breakdown of what is players choice and what is red label in those numbers. It's truly a rare game in every sense. And the media attention on these high dollar sales will certainly attract more high dollar buyers. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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