The Spreading (And Potentially Deadly) Coronavirus Epidemic....

[LeatherRebel5150 | 1,056]

Just now, LeatherRebel5150 said:

 

double post somehow

Edited March 16, 2020 by LeatherRebel5150

[LeatherRebel5150 | 1,056]

2 minutes ago, Jeevan said:

Emergency personnel tend to buy from vendors, not local stores, at least in my experience......along with factories........ 

Which is exactly my point, they are trying to use it as an excuse to stay open.

[Tabonga | 2,324]

1 hour ago, Jeevan said:

 World ruled by 10 y/o's or less...........

In this film (a really odd piece of ephemera from 1968) everyone over 35 is put in "retirement" camps.  It ends with the under 10 crowd planning to do the same with everyone over 10.

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Tabonga

[Californication | 1,477]

Everyone in my downtown sd office will be working from home. Not sure how many people, but we take up 3 floors in one of the largest buildings.

[Lambda | 130]

22 hours ago, a3quit4s said:

For what it’s worth I got my 8 month old the Enfamil Neuropro Gentleease at Target a few days ago with no issue. They still had some on the shelf if you need me to go buy it for you and ship it out. 
 

My biggest fear lately isn’t me not having food for me, it’s not having food for my little bud.

@a3quit4s, @ICrappedMyPants, @Mega Tank 

^these dudes all reached out to me with helpful advice, offers to help, and literally to go shopping for my buddy!! I’m thankful for every single one of you, more than I can say. These are the gents that make this place amazing, and THESE are the types of people who are going to be some of the real heroes in helping others out during all of this. If I could buy you all a round of drinks, I would right now (unfortunately they just closed all of the bars and restaurants here indefinitely ) haha.

on a serious note... Thank you guys!!!! The helpful tips and offers have been so much appreciated. I was able to use some of this info and direct my buddy to a store that had some baby formula tubs in stock. You guys ROCK!!! 

[Richardhead | 2,813]

Welp, I’m officially a little panicked. We are a small business. We can’t do deliveries and it’ll be nearly impossible to keep up with curbside pickup. If we have to shut down, we don’t get paid. I have a small little nest egg put away for this kind of thing, but I know a few of my coworkers that for sure do not.  We have a grocery store across the street that can still sell beer from inside, meanwhile see can’t? Fuck me! 

[Jeevan | 8,915]

4 minutes ago, Richardhead said:

Welp, I’m officially a little panicked. We are a small business. We can’t do deliveries and it’ll be nearly impossible to keep up with curbside pickup. If we have to shut down, we don’t get paid. I have a small little nest egg put away for this kind of thing, but I know a few of my coworkers that for sure do not.  We have a grocery store across the street that can still sell beer from inside, meanwhile see can’t? Fuck me! 

Good luck bud, let me know if u need anything, Hopefully you will make it aight 

[Tulpa | 3,524]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

 

[Lambda | 130]

16 minutes ago, Richardhead said:

Welp, I’m officially a little panicked. We are a small business. We can’t do deliveries and it’ll be nearly impossible to keep up with curbside pickup. If we have to shut down, we don’t get paid. I have a small little nest egg put away for this kind of thing, but I know a few of my coworkers that for sure do not.  We have a grocery store across the street that can still sell beer from inside, meanwhile see can’t? Fuck me! 

https://joinhomebase.com/blog/covid-19-financial-resources-businesses-workers/
 

Im not positive if this will be helpful, but I know the list of affected areas is growing by the day. This website should be able to offer some advice on how to handle the situation, at least from a request standpoint. You’re not alone, brother. Hopefully Colorado makes that list quickly... I’m hearing 11 states are falling in line with operating restrictions, mine being one of them.

eBay can be a great place to sell unneeded items lying around the house if quick cash is something you need. Just a thought: Babies are being born every hour... if you have any children past the point of infancy, and have some clothes, toys, etc. in the attic, consider listing them for a small boost. I know for a fact that several expectant mothers would be happy to make those purchases from you rather than running out to an overcrowded big box store and risking infection. If you don’t have kids, people are buying everything they can online right now to avoid leaving the home. Best of luck brother!!

Edited March 17, 2020 by Lambda

[a3quit4s | 4,110]

10 minutes ago, Lambda said:

https://joinhomebase.com/blog/covid-19-financial-resources-businesses-workers/
 

Im not positive if this will be helpful, but I know the list of affected areas is growing by the day. This website should be able to offer some advice on how to handle the situation, at least from a request standpoint. You’re not alone, brother. Hopefully Colorado makes that list quickly... I’m hearing 11 states are falling in line with operating restrictions, mine being one of them.

eBay can be a great place to sell unneeded items laying around the house of quick cash is something you need. Just a thought: Babies are being born every hour... if you have any children past the point of infancy, and have some clothes, toys, etc. in the attic, consider listing them for a small boost. I know for a fact that several expectant mothers would be happy to make those purchases from you rather than running out to an overcrowded big box store and risking infection. If you don’t have kids, people are buying everything they can online right now to avoid leaving the home. Best of luck brother!!

We can dump $1.5 trillion into failing financial markets but we need to charge small businesses 4% interest to get a loan to keep their businesses afloat? Don’t worry though there is a 30 year option. I mean cmon man. Oh and the Dow was down 3,000 points so great work all around government. 

Edited March 17, 2020 by a3quit4s

[MrWunderful | 2,927]

Call me crazy. 
 

7110 people or so have died of this. 
 

Dont more people than that die from other viruses everyday? Do any other viruses cause death even?

 

7k people from what now 8 billion? What percentage is that, Im not a math guy. Just seems like in the grand scheme of the entire worlds population that isnt all that much. Maybe im missing something though. 

[Murray | 2,449]

27 minutes ago, Richardhead said:

Welp, I’m officially a little panicked. We are a small business. We can’t do deliveries and it’ll be nearly impossible to keep up with curbside pickup. If we have to shut down, we don’t get paid. I have a small little nest egg put away for this kind of thing, but I know a few of my coworkers that for sure do not.  We have a grocery store across the street that can still sell beer from inside, meanwhile see can’t? Fuck me! 

Got some extra TP if you need it bud. 

Edited March 17, 2020 by Murray

[Lambda | 130]

Just now, a3quit4s said:

We can dump $1.5 trillion into failing financial markets but we need to charge small businesses 4% interest to get a loan to keep their businesses afloat? Don’t worry though there is a 30 year option. I mean cmon man. 

I couldn’t agree more. This is unfair.
 

I actually had this conversation with my CMO only minutes ago. And from there I present this link:

https://www.cbr.com/coronavirus-apple-may-acquire-disney-stock-crash/

I work on the street... and I have a huge feeling that this virus is going to change the landscape: mentally, socially, physically, and philosophically. I’m actually expectant that going forward we will see two things from Wall Street:

1) more mergers and acquisitions like the one mentioned in this article (although I can’t say that Apple has any true intent to buy Disney and I make no claims for or against buying either stock as a way to profit). I think the “idea” of the article is on point though. It would reduce the needs for serious bailouts from the federal government since the money would inflow from the private sector.

2) since we all know how most people feel about bailouts after the Lehman Bro’s collapse (), we can assume that Anti-Trust committees may allow this to happen and turn the other cheek to these M&A deals so that people don’t get furious over new bailouts and larger federal debt levels.

 

Bottom Line:

Small businesses need to be helped out right now. It’s time for the fed to do the “neighborly” thing for once.

 

[jonebone | 1,307]

8 minutes ago, MrWunderful said:

Call me crazy. 
 

7110 people or so have died of this. 
 

Dont more people than that die from other viruses everyday? Do any other viruses cause death even?

 

7k people from what now 8 billion? What percentage is that, Im not a math guy. Just seems like in the grand scheme of the entire worlds population that isnt all that much. Maybe im missing something though. 

They think death rate is about 1% of infected, about 10x as lethal as flu. Then use whatever assumption that you want but exponential spread will infect a lot if you dont get it under control early. What seems like too early is far better than too late.

[fsped09 | 223]

2 minutes ago, MrWunderful said:

Call me crazy. 
 

7110 people or so have died of this. 
 

Dont more people than that die from other viruses everyday? Do any other viruses cause death even?

 

7k people from what now 8 billion? What percentage is that, Im not a math guy. Just seems like in the grand scheme of the entire worlds population that isnt all that much. Maybe im missing something though. 

Imagine we didn't have any medicine to combat the number of people that die from viruses everyday? Imagine that not a single one of the eight billion had any immunity to those viruses. Less than half have recovered. 7k+ dead, is a lot of people, a lot of people QUICKLY at that. (the numbers below are two weeks old).

 

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-diseases-comparing-covid-19-sars-mers-numbers-n1150321 

 

Yes out of billions 7k a drop in bucket. But in the US were not equipped for this and have had little experience dealing with these types of issues. Democratic (not democrats) countries can't force citizens to stay inside like the can in a communist country. So don't look at the number, compare to the number of people on the planet and think its not that bad. In the US, we're still on day zero of this. More and more people will get sick and more and more will die based on what we've seen in other countries like Italy, which the US is on par with at the moment (with lag). 

 

Source (Site): https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/covid-19-coronavirus-data

 

Its not where we're at now that is scary, its where are we going to be in two, four, six and eight weeks from now. 

[RegularGuyGamer | 2,014]

23 minutes ago, MrWunderful said:

Call me crazy. 
 

7110 people or so have died of this. 
 

Dont more people than that die from other viruses everyday? Do any other viruses cause death even?

 

 

Here's a good video on how this virus had been spreading and why governments have taken it so seriously just based on the growth. Take into account how that it's an acute respiratory syndrome, it becomes a real threat to more people than our health Care system can handle.

 

 

Edited March 17, 2020 by RegularGuyGamer

[MrWunderful | 2,927]

14 minutes ago, RegularGuyGamer said:

Here's a good video on how this virus had been spreading and why governments have taken it so seriously just based on the growth. Take into account how that it's an acute respiratory syndrome, it becomes a real threat to more people than our health Care system can handle.

 

 

I get it now, just needed a visual representation thanks. 
 

https://apple.news/AWTPfZ4rMQwmOos2PRsrVRw

 

thats a great article that you can run simulations to see how a theoretical virus spreads. Pretty cool. 

[Lambda | 130]

11 hours ago, MrWunderful said:

Call me crazy. 
 

7110 people or so have died of this. 
 

Dont more people than that die from other viruses everyday? Do any other viruses cause death even?

 

7k people from what now 8 billion? What percentage is that, Im not a math guy. Just seems like in the grand scheme of the entire worlds population that isnt all that much. Maybe im missing something though. 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
 

The guy in this article talks like a data scientist. Only reason I feel that way is because I have a data scientist contracted on my team haha.

we did some looking into the research and the spread rate in outbreak areas tends to be close to 1.6(X) daily. Let X Equal yesterdays Patients. This number has held true for outbreaks daily here on Long Island after looking into it, so now I have a feeling he has at least “somewhat” of an idea in what he’s talking about. (The article itself feels alarmist but it’s only the data and numbers that I really cared about when reading).

Edit:(I checked the YouTube video above and his numbers line up oddly well). When considering total populations, like urban and rural combined, 1.25 may very well be the number. When considering Urban pops alone (as my co did, outside of NYC, where human transaction is marginally higher than any rural county across the US). 1.6x seems to be spread count effective. I feel even more affirmed in the numbers my data scientist procured and came up with after watching that video, and reading the data from this MScEng in the link.

This guy (my article) has a model for predicting tru infections walking around in your area:

T = P x 2^(17.3/6.2)

let T = True Case

let P = Official Patients

True Cases are the people walking around with the infection (spreading it)

Patients are officially recognized positive cases

2 is doubling time for the the virus

17.3 if average time to death for a critical patient

6.2 is average time to double infection

 

Now... if the model is correct (and according to the article it checks out based on data from China, Iran, SKorea),  in NY alone, there were 950 “Patients” this morning... but calculated, 7k+ people walking around with the infection.

The problem worsens when you look at Wuhan and places like Italy in particular. We know for a fact that the hospital systems there are overloaded... “no more beds”... without proper treatment and care, some people who might not otherwise die, wind up dying. The calculated death rate for hospital and care systems that are overrun winds up moving from 1% to nearly 5-6% ... THATS troubling. The true problem comes in when hospitals wind up putting sick patient next to healthy healthcare experts. At this time we have an undoubted run of infection from patients to healthy actors, and when we reduce our healthcare staff, we reduce the care that critical patients need. This in and of itself is self explanatory.

 

im not a data scientist but I had one of my guys run the number and things seem to roughly check out. (Roughly)

 

I’m hoping we just get a handle on this ASAP.

 

In other news: the pic is a related prediction by AHA... and extremely troubling at best... I’d really like to know what constitutes “wave 2”

 

I would also challenge all who read this to look-up Farr’s Law and how it relates to pandemic/epidemic problems. It is marginally relayed by the video posted above, but clarity on the topic may bring some reduction in fear to those who are really worried about this. From HIV to COVID-19, all outbreaks in history (so far) have followed Farr’s Law.

... my wife is a nurse, mother and aunt are in healthcare, 3 cousins are in law enforcement, father is management for Air Canada (works in LaGuardia) - all people outwardly facing the public in their work lives.... my fathers gf is in retail.... his gf works for a luxury company and recently had a customer back from Spain within past week. He was coughing and sneezing, walking around the store (with my fathers gf walking with him to help him shop, pick out gifts)... he was questioned by management and he traveled from Spain. And didn’t self isolate after he arrived... my fathers gf is now quarantined and out of work at mandate of Monte Blanc Corporate.... of all of my family, SHE is the one who becomes potentially exposed? The irony....just found this out a couple of hours ago

 

we gotta get this shit under control.... if you have extra and have elderly “neighbors”, help them, if you have more than you need, supply your closest.... humanity will be what beats this virus... not numbers.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Lambda
Spelling+Clarity

[Estil | 1,265]

So I went to get a few provisions at my local store and it looks like the *beep* has now hit the fan in my area.  TP/PT's, GONE.  Fresh beef/pork...mostly GONE.  Eggs, bread...GONE.  I think there was some milk left but there are "strict limit of three" signs everywhere...thankfully nobody seemed to want my go-to beverage, gallon jug of sweet tea.  I was going to get kitty a spare bag of cat food just to be on the safe side but his kind and half the others, not to mention most of the kitty litter, GONE (yes even food/supplies for man's REAL best friend, and I suppose that other species also, is getting harder to come by).  Thank God I was able to order a four pack of his cat food off Amazon.  Not to mention I got the last Maxwell House off an end cap so I got a spare can of coffee at least.  Plus my store which normally is open 6AM-1AM (it used to be 24 hours) is now down to 7AM-10PM.

This is just getting way WAY too real...

Edited March 17, 2020 by Estil

[Lambda | 130]

9 hours ago, Nintegageo said:

Honestly recommend people listen to the Joe Rogan podcast with Michael Osterholm. It was very interesting.

This... I very much agree. Listened to the whole thing. I don’t take Joe Rogan as mews but this guest is serious in his response

[Lambda | 130]

12 minutes ago, Estil said:

So I went to get a few provisions at my local store and it looks like the *beep* has now hit the fan in my area.  TP/PT's, GONE.  Fresh beef/pork...mostly GONE.  Eggs, bread...GONE.  I think there was some milk left but there are "strict limit of three" signs everywhere...thankfully nobody seemed to want my go-to beverage, gallon jug of sweet tea.  I was going to get kitty a spare bag of cat food just to be on the safe side but his kind and half the others, not to mention most of the kitty litter, GONE (yes even food/supplies for man's REAL best friend, and I suppose that other species also, is getting harder to come by).  Thank God I was able to order a four pack of his cat food off Amazon.  Not to mention I got the last Maxwell House off an end cap so I got a spare can of coffee at least.  Plus my store which normally is open 6AM-1AM (it used to be 24 hours) is now down to 7AM-10PM.

This is just getting way WAY too real...

In response to the milk hoard... I saw people doing this in my local grocer... I saw one individual with *10* gallons of milk in his cart!!!! I kid you not...

Milk goes bad in a matter of 14 days.. I have a 13 month old that exclusively drinks whole milk watered down to prevent constipation.... and I’m on my last 8 ounces by tmrw. I’ll go out and get more.... but seriously... 10 gallons of milk?!?! In one sitting?!(14 days at best?!) how can that much milk even be consumed by one family?! Haha

only thing I can think of and hope for is that he bought all of that to distribute to neighbors/family who couldn’t leave the house to shop?? Otherwise, I’m at a total loss at this type of panic buying....

Edited March 17, 2020 by Lambda

[Tulpa | 3,524]

32 minutes ago, Lambda said:

In response to the milk hoard... I saw people doing this in my local grocer... I saw one individual with *10* gallons of milk in his cart!!!! I kid you not...

Milk goes bad in a matter of 14 days.. I have a 13 month old that exclusively drinks whole milk watered down to prevent constipation.... and I’m on my last 8 ounces by tmrw. I’ll go out and get more.... but seriously... 10 gallons of milk?!?! In one sitting?!(14 days at best?!) how can that much milk even be consumed by one family?! Haha

only thing I can think of and hope for is that he bought all of that to distribute to neighbors/family who couldn’t leave the house to shop?? Otherwise, I’m at a total loss at this type of panic buying....

I think that might be the worst part of this; all the food that will be going to waste.

[doner24 | 1,197]

Governor is closing up any bars/restaurants/non essential places tomorrow for at least a couple weeks here in Minnesota. Businesses and people are going to get hit hard, especially in the service industry. There will be some great case studies that come out of this. A cost/benefit analysis comparing the deaths of mostly elderly people to the loss of many businesses, incomes for young, healthy people. 
 

As someone with a very immunocompromised mother and the means to work from home and not be affected as much as others. I’m firmly in the quarantine camp, but I certainly see the other side as well. 

[fox | 1,668]

I know things are crazy out there.  Pretty much everything is shutting down, people getting laid off, it is hard times. I'm hanging in there and trying to normalize my routine as much as possible, but I understand we all have to make sacrifices.

[captmorgandrinker | 1,649]

For those that are having issues finding milk, try your local gas station.  People don't really think to look there so when everybody else is cleaned out they normally have some still.