The Spreading (And Potentially Deadly) Coronavirus Epidemic....

[Magus | 169]

Ugh schools are now closed for at least 3 weeks in MA. And my partners company has already sent out an email essentially saying we are not paying you guys, tough luck, but thanks so much for understanding. 

I belive you can get unemployment in this circumstance, but it is a fraction of what she would get normally. And from what i understand there are people talking about it being much longer than 3 weeks and potentially not even opening the schools again this year......I hope that is just a worst case scenario and it doesn't end up that way.

And I hope you are all healthy, stay healthy, and are able to push through this if you are financially being hit by this like so many are. 



 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Magus
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[jonebone | 1,307]

Not to scare anyone but I've seen lots of numbers thrown around about how bad this will get.  Being the numbers guy I am, I wanted to do my own analysis. I'm not in the medical industry but I am a professional cost estimator at least. The caveat here is that an estimate is only as good as the data you use to forecast and the reasonableness of your assumptions. Having said that I'm going to estimate about 3.5M infected and that would put us around 350k deaths @ 1%.

Here's my analysis if anyone wants to see how you arrive at that number, based on real data from CDC or other scholarly sources.



The bad:
COVID-19 is almost "twice as infectious" as Flu (R0 of 2.2 vs. 1.3), with a higher mortality rate. Scare tactics have it at 3-4% but most experts seem to agree around 1% on this vs. 0.1% on Flu (10x as bad.)
There's no vaccine. Yet CDC estimates show vaccine effectiveness can vary between 5 and 27% in a year (look at 2014-2015 season, that flu shot wasn't worth a damn).

The good:
CDC says hand washing can reduce spread of respiratory illnesses by about 1/5th. And we're doing a lot of that.
Studies show that school closure effectiveness is at least about 21% at 90% compliance. If children and teenagers are kept home you can get an effectiveness of closer to 90%.
The flu is definitely seasonal and we're running into this at the end of flu season. Experts are divided about COVID-19 impact but I would be a lot of money that we will come out far better in this outbreak by starting now going into summer as opposed to Fall going into Winter. That is a blessing in disguise that no one is really talking about.
Travel restrictions and mass gathering reductions will also have a huge impact on spread. I'm assuming about 50% personally but even if you go with a modest percentage of 20% (which is reasonable compared to the other CDC or scholarly endorsed assumptions, that is substantial.)

Graph for reference on Flu seasonality, also from CDC.



Hope this info at least lets people better understand some of the numbers getting thrown around.

Edit: BTW, at a minimum, if you don't think COVID-19 will be seasonal, the seasonality of the flu will at least free up hospital beds that would otherwise be occupied in the winter months during the heart of flu season.

So yes, don't panic because the Flu wrecks a good 1% of the population every year.  But also be prepared, because we're all likely going to know at least one person who contracts this new virus.  
 

[Reed Rothchild | 9,592]

35K deaths*...?

The x10 death rate must be some sort of risk factor multiplier or something?

[jonebone | 1,307]

4 minutes ago, Reed Rothchild said:

35K deaths*...?

The x10 death rate must be some sort of risk factor multiplier or something?

350k deaths, i.e. 1% of infected. The seasonal flu has a death rate of about 0.1% of infected and most disease experts are saying COVID looks to be around 1%.  Some unreputable media hype have it at 3-4% but the experts have it much lower, though very high compared to flu. 

Edited March 16, 2020 by jonebone

[Reed Rothchild | 9,592]

Wouldn't that be 1% of 35 million infected?

edit: I think that's what your spreadsheet says

[Strange | 1,702]

Ah yes, I also base my public health decisions on what some random drunk said at one of my bars.

For those unaware, Downtown/Broadway was booming as per usual in Nashville this weekend and heavy criticism was thrown at the bar owners and patrons. As such, Mayor Cooper (rightfully) declared bars on Broadway are to remain closed until this blows over. Most are complying, however some are not. These bars have lost my business. It sucks because I actually like Rippys.

The statement made by the owner is absolutely ridiculous.

 

[jonebone | 1,307]

8 minutes ago, Reed Rothchild said:

Wouldn't that be 1% of 35 million infected?

edit: I think that's what your spreadsheet says

No, 3.5M infected and 350k death rate (1%) from that.  The very top table is the Flu CDC data which coincidentally shows about 35Million infected in a typical flu season.  Sorry I know it was a lot of numbers...

[fsped09 | 223]

1 hour ago, jonebone said:

Not to scare anyone...

Scares everyone

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

 

1 hour ago, jonebone said:

No, 3.5M infected and 350k death rate (1%) from that.  The very top table is the Flu CDC data which coincidentally shows about 35Million infected in a typical flu season.  Sorry I know it was a lot of numbers...

He is saying that 1% of 3.5MM is 35k not 350k.  (i.e. 1% of 35MM would give you the 350k death number)

If you're personally estimately 3.5MM infected (due to mitigating factors) then accompanying deaths should presumably work out to 35k if you're using a 1% estimate. (rather than 350k)

 

A couple lines up you appear to do the same thing showing the death rate for 14MM infected at 1.4MM rather than 1% equating to 140k.

[jonebone | 1,307]

10 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

 

He is saying that 1% of 3.5MM is 35k not 350k.  (i.e. 1% of 35MM would give you the 350k death number)

If you're personally estimately 3.5MM infected (due to mitigating factors) then accompanying deaths should presumably work out to 35k if you're using a 1% estimate. (rather than 350k)

 

A couple lines up you appear to do the same thing showing the death rate for 14MM infected at 1.4MM rather than 1% equating to 140k.

Ah, yes then my death rates are vastly overstated.  I would agree 35k death rate then, rest of numbers are just taken directly from CDC with assumptions applied as noted. 

[Nintegageo | 582]

Honestly recommend people listen to the Joe Rogan podcast with Michael Osterholm. It was very interesting.

[Gamegearguy | 228]

What I don't get is why governors like to act like little dictators and decree everything to be closed. It's just not fair. I would like to go out and do stuff. It's about time people started revolting to this crap and overthrow the government and decree everything open again like it should be.

[Tulpa | 3,537]

17 minutes ago, Gamegearguy said:

What I don't get is why governors like to act like little dictators and decree everything to be closed. It's just not fair. I would like to go out and do stuff. It's about time people started revolting to this crap and overthrow the government and decree everything open again like it should be.

The only reason they're doing it is that the wet fart of a presidential administration we have is incapable of responding  to the threat. If he hadn't defunded the CDC and dismantled the epidemic task force we had in place, we might have had a better way of handling it.

Or we could be like Italy, who responded too late , kept everything open and people mingling, and now they're totally fucked.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Tulpa

[Kguillemette | 1,547]

28 minutes ago, Gamegearguy said:

What I don't get is why governors like to act like little dictators and decree everything to be closed. It's just not fair. I would like to go out and do stuff. It's about time people started revolting to this crap and overthrow the government and decree everything open again like it should be.

I'm glad that we have some governors with the balls to make the tough calls. Even a conservative like Gov Sununu made the call to close schools for 3 weeks. If both sides of the aisle agree on something like this, it's time to get in line like a good little American. We can't afford our hospitals to get overwhelmed with bullshit like COVID. What do we do if someone has a stroke but the beds are full of corona virus complications? God forbid this gets into another nursing home and causes absolute devastation. If 40 residents of a nursing home/ assisted living facility need to get sent to the ER at the same time... Just overwhelming. If 2 nursing homes in the same area get hit we are talking unthinkable devastation that could have been potentially prevented by shitting it down for a few weeks.

[Boosted52405 | 178]

34 minutes ago, Gamegearguy said:

What I don't get is why governors like to act like little dictators and decree everything to be closed. It's just not fair. I would like to go out and do stuff. It's about time people started revolting to this crap and overthrow the government and decree everything open again like it should be.

Rumor has it there is a virus going around.  Thought you should know.

[Tulpa | 3,537]

5 minutes ago, Kguillemette said:

I'm glad that we have some governors with the balls to make the tough calls. Even a conservative like Gov Sununu made the call to close schools for 3 weeks. If both sides of the aisle agree on something like this, it's time to get in line like a good little American. We can't afford our hospitals to get overwhelmed with bullshit like COVID. What do we do if someone has a stroke but the beds are full of corona virus complications? God forbid this gets into another nursing home and causes absolute devastation. If 40 residents of a nursing home/ assisted living facility need to get sent to the ER at the same time... Just overwhelming. If 2 nursing homes in the same area get hit we are talking unthinkable devastation that could have been potentially prevented by shitting it down for a few weeks.

Yeah, in Italy, they pretty much admitted that old people who have the virus are not going to get treatment. They just don't have the capacity.

Here, keeping grandpa alive kind of supersedes your visit to Applebee's.

Use Ubereats or Door Dash. It's what they're there for.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Tulpa

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

3 minutes ago, Tulpa said:

Yeah, in Italy, they pretty much admitted that old people who have the virus are not going to get treatment. They just don't have the capacity.

 

From what I understand, most of the stories saying that they are resorting to triage for the elderly have been debunked and were based on a memo discussing PLANS to triage IF NEEDED.

So they aren't at capacity YET, but they are planning for it as a worst-case scenario. 

[Hogie | 12]

40 minutes ago, Gamegearguy said:

What I don't get is why governors like to act like little dictators and decree everything to be closed. It's just not fair. I would like to go out and do stuff. It's about time people started revolting to this crap and overthrow the government and decree everything open again like it should be.

I am not extremely worried about myself, but I am willing to do my part to ensure that I am apart of the solution and not the problem. This is a time that we need to think of others and how this may negatively effect them and not ourselves.

[Gamegearguy | 228]

OK, perhaps my previous post was a little harsh, but it seems to me like the only people this could cause real harm to is children and the elderly. If this is true, elderly people rarely go out anyway, and kids should be learning things with at least a few unsick kids. The last thing they need is to sit in front of a computer all day playing video games. My nephew is home from school playing his Switch when he should be learning stuff like I did when I was his age.

Or perhaps it's a case of me being too old, which is probably not true because I'm >40 years old. But perhaps it's the future of kids needing to be in front of screens all day because in the future we'll all be stuck at home due to the coronavirus 20 years from now.

[MrWunderful | 2,927]

Silicon valley is shutting down. We are getting a shelter in place order apparently, they (Google) are putting all their construction projects on hold (billions of dollars in construction). 
 

Crazy Times! Looking forward to my 2 weeks off. 

[Andy_Bogomil | 815]

 

29 minutes ago, Tulpa said:

 

Here, keeping grandpa alive kind of supersedes your visit to Applebee's.

 

 

What about the owner and employees of Applebee's or many other situations where this is causing financial hardship? You guys talk as if there are no implications of mass isolation for a virus that the vast majority would have non-critical symptoms, if any. It's easy to call this the best course of action when you have the luxury to have paid sick time etc., but that's not the case for a lot of people who have very little benefits or own a private business that isn't 'essential'. I do think this is a serious illness but don't act as if shutting everything down for an undermined amount of time is simply people missing out things like sporting events etc.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Andy_Bogomil

[Kguillemette | 1,547]

3 minutes ago, Gamegearguy said:

OK, perhaps my previous post was a little harsh, but it seems to me like the only people this could cause real harm to is children and the elderly. If this is true, elderly people rarely go out anyway, and kids should be learning things with at least a few unsick kids. The last thing they need is to sit in front of a computer all day playing video games. My nephew is home from school playing his Switch when he should be learning stuff like I did when I was his age.

Or perhaps it's a case of me being too old, which is probably not true because I'm >40 years old. But perhaps it's the future of kids needing to be in front of screens all day because in the future we'll all be stuck at home due to the coronavirus 20 years from now.

I respectfully disagree with the entirety of your world view. Elderly go out every day. But that's not not the main risk. If a carrier visits an AL facility or nursing home. This is the risk.

 

 

Also. This does not affect children. Total deaths worldwide for children under 10(as of 2 days ago) is a fat goose egg.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

8 minutes ago, Gamegearguy said:

OK, perhaps my previous post was a little harsh, but it seems to me like the only people this could cause real harm to is children and the elderly.

Does nobody actually read the news?

  This one doesn't appear to harm kids under 10 years old at all, with the 10-19 age group at the same relatively low risk level as 20-29.

 

60+ is where the stats get ugly, where at 80+, men are looking at a 20%+ chance of death.

 

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

2 minutes ago, Andy_Bogomil said:

 

 

What about the owner and employees of Applebee's or many other situations where this is causing financial hardship? You guys talk as if there are no implications of mass isolation for a virus that the vast majority would have non-critical symptoms, if any. It's easy to call this the best course of action when you have the luxury to have paid sick time etc., but that's not the case for a lot of people who have very little benefits or own a private business that isn't 'essential'. I do think this is a serious illness but don't act as if shutting everything down for an undermined amount of time is simply people missing out things like sporting events etc.

This whole event is definitely going to involve a lot of reconsideration of how we choose to value lives of the elderly, versus the health of the economy.

It is definitely an ugly truth that 80+ could have a 100% death rate, and if it was isolated to them, it is probably a significant net benefit, economically.

 

[Tulpa | 3,537]

3 minutes ago, Andy_Bogomil said:

What about the owner and employees of Applebee's or many other situations where this is causing financial hardship? You guys talk as if there are no implications of mass isolation for a virus that the vast majority would have non-critical symptoms, if any. It's easy to call this the best course of action when you have the luxury to have paid sick time etc., but that's not the case for a lot of people who have very little benefits or own a private business that isn't 'essential'. I do think this is a serious illness but don't act as if shutting everything down for an undermined amount of time is simply people missing out things like sporting events etc.

Of course there's implications, but there's also implications of a virus that kills off a big percentage of the elderly. With the Boomer population aging, that's not an insignificant amount.

The sooner we flatten the curve on the rate of infection by isolation, the sooner it largely passes and the faster we're back to normal.