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The Spreading (And Potentially Deadly) Coronavirus Epidemic....


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9 hours ago, arch_8ngel said:

Well, the official stats so far implies a death rate 10x higher than standard strains of the flu.  But since it is apparently spread by asymptomatic or low symptom carriers, who knows what the real number is.

But yeah, definitely not as bad as SARS or MERS in terms of death rate, just considerably more infectious than either.

I would think a man like yourself would know that a reported 10x death rate in comparison to the flu at this stage in the life cycle of the virus isn't a fair number to use. The common flu has a team of scientists working to combat it every year via vaccinations and has trained medical professionals ready to identify it and treat it effectively. Remove those pillars, and you have a killer virus that anyone in poor health would not survive. 

Add that to the accuracy of the numbers as the sample increases. The cronovirus has such small numbers of cases in countries that can produce trusted outcomes. I personally do not trust the Chinese govt in reporting data whether for good or for bad. With the trade war tactics that have been on, I'm sure they're pleased as to what the commotion is doing to the DJI and also the diversion that happened from the HK protests. 

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1 hour ago, RegularGuyGamer said:

I would think a man like yourself would know that a reported 10x death rate in comparison to the flu at this stage in the life cycle of the virus isn't a fair number to use. The common flu has a team of scientists working to combat it every year via vaccinations and has trained medical professionals ready to identify it and treat it effectively. Remove those pillars, and you have a killer virus that anyone in poor health would not survive. 

Add that to the accuracy of the numbers as the sample increases. The cronovirus has such small numbers of cases in countries that can produce trusted outcomes. I personally do not trust the Chinese govt in reporting data whether for good or for bad. With the trade war tactics that have been on, I'm sure they're pleased as to what the commotion is doing to the DJI and also the diversion that happened from the HK protests. 

That is why I said "who knows" at this point since the diagnosis rate is almost certainly lower than the reality, since asymptomatic people can spread it which probably implies a large number of people mistaking it for any other cold and not pursuing an explicit diagnosis or treatment, to end up as part of the larger statistic.

By contrast, the baseline for getting the flu lays you out on your ass in a pretty unmistakable way, if you weren't vaccinated.  

But the other side is that this one is currently estimated as being more transmissible than flu (2+ vs 1.3).

Now that it is in the USA, with people turning up with unknown sources, give it two or three weeks and we will ideally have a much better understanding of the numbers without the filter of untrustworthy data from China.

Then again, with Pence at the helm as a news filter..."who knows" whether we get full disclosure.

Edited by arch_8ngel
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This sh*t is getting crazy.  It's unsettling to read the news anymore, it's changing by the hour it seems.  With US cases/deaths established and they can't even trace the origin?!?

I'm legit shaken by this to the point I think I'm going to cancel a trip I have at the end of March, for a Pokemon Go safari zone event where people travel to from all over the world.

Am I crazy to consider cancelling?  (Not flying, driving, and the event is at a massive park in St. Louis)

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31 minutes ago, Boosted52405 said:

This sh*t is getting crazy.  It's unsettling to read the news anymore, it's changing by the hour it seems.  With US cases/deaths established and they can't even trace the origin?!?

I'm legit shaken by this to the point I think I'm going to cancel a trip I have at the end of March, for a Pokemon Go safari zone event where people travel to from all over the world.

Am I crazy to consider cancelling?  (Not flying, driving, and the event is at a massive park in St. Louis)

Are you currently not in good health overall?  Do you have a weakened immune system or an auto immune disease?  Are you under 10 or over 60?  This shit is blown way out of proportion IMO.  I am no doctor though so please seek out advice from your doctor to help you make a decision.  But IMO if you answered no to all of those questions above your all set.  Haven't you ever gotten the flu before?  Sure maybe you get sick and feel like shit for a week but your not gonna die.

Edited by tbone3969
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3 hours ago, arch_8ngel said:

That is why I said "who knows" at this point since the diagnosis rate is almost certainly lower than the reality, since asymptomatic people can spread it which probably implies a large number of people mistaking it for any other cold and not pursuing an explicit diagnosis or treatment, to end up as part of the larger statistic.

By contrast, the baseline for getting the flu lays you out on your ass in a pretty unmistakable way, if you weren't vaccinated.  

But the other side is that this one is currently estimated as being more transmissible than flu (2+ vs 1.3).

Now that it is in the USA, with people turning up with unknown sources, give it two or three weeks and we will ideally have a much better understanding of the numbers without the filter of untrustworthy data from China.

Then again, with Pence at the helm as a news filter..."who knows" whether we get full disclosure.

So true about Pence.  This is what I find truly scary about this administration.  Trump appoints people to head divisions who have no business being there.  I mean Pence DOES NOT BELIEVE IN EVOLUTION.  I am 100% serious about that.  And this is the guy you want heading up the fight against this new virus?  Just blows my mind.

Edited by tbone3969
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8 minutes ago, tbone3969 said:

Are you currently not in good health overall?  Do you have a weakened immune system or an auto immune disease?  Are you under 10 or over 60?  This shit is blown way out of proportion IMO.  I am no doctor though so please seek out advice from your doctor to help you make a decision.  But IMO if you answered no to all of those questions above your all set.  Haven't you ever gotten the flu before?  Sure maybe you get sick and feel like shit for a week but your not gonna die.

Under 10 actually seems like the safest group, so far, for this particular illness.

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5 minutes ago, tbone3969 said:

So true about Pence.  This is what I find truly scary about this administration.  Trump appoints people to head divisions who have no business being there.  I mean Pence DOES NOT BELIEVE IN EVOLUTION.  I am 100% serious about that.  And this is the guy you want heading up the fight against this new virus?  Just blows my mind.

I was basing my negative assessment of his competence for the job on how there was an AIDS explosion in his state, on his watch, due to actions he had some level of authority over.

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38 minutes ago, tbone3969 said:

Are you currently not in good health overall?  Do you have a weakened immune system or an auto immune disease?  Are you under 10 or over 60?  This shit is blown way out of proportion IMO.  I am no doctor though so please seek out advice from your doctor to help you make a decision.  But IMO if you answered no to all of those questions above your all set.  Haven't you ever gotten the flu before?  Sure maybe you get sick and feel like shit for a week but your not gonna die.

Good perspective although should we be cautious of minimizing it?  To ask, are folks commonly being cured of this?  I was under the impression that it's fairly lethal, origins are not being traced in the US, and now it's in CA, WA, and NY?  Honest talk, I definitely appreciate your input though, and am in good health overall.

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4 minutes ago, Boosted52405 said:

Good perspective although should we be cautious of minimizing it?  To ask, are folks commonly being cured of this?  I was under the impression that it's fairly lethal, origins are not being traced in the US, and now it's in CA, WA, and NY?  Honest talk, I definitely appreciate your input though, and am in good health overall.

What do you consider "fairly lethal"?

Current statistics (which presumably under-count the true number of infected due to asymptomatic carriers and low-symptom infected) show an approx 2% mortality rate overall, skewed heavily by a 15% mortality rate for the over-65 bracket.

The percentage of people that need hospital intervention is a good bit higher than that, though. (10-15% overall)

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20 minutes ago, Boosted52405 said:

Good perspective although should we be cautious of minimizing it?  To ask, are folks commonly being cured of this?  I was under the impression that it's fairly lethal, origins are not being traced in the US, and now it's in CA, WA, and NY?  Honest talk, I definitely appreciate your input though, and am in good health overall.

Lethal.....  no way.  Mortality rate is similar to the flu.  Less than 2 percent unless something has drastically changed in the reporting within the last couple of days.  If so please link sources because I want to know.  First case just popped up in Manhattan and that's where I live. 

 

Remember what __________  said (shit I forget his name).  Basically he said that "TVs job is to scare you into staying home and watching more TV."

 

 

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2 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

What do you consider "fairly lethal"?

Current statistics (which presumably under-count the true number of infected due to asymptomatic carriers and low-symptom infected) show an approx 2% mortality rate overall, skewed heavily by a 15% mortality rate for the over-65 bracket.

The percentage of people that need hospital intervention is a good bit higher than that, though. (10-15% overall)

Yeah idk, I'm really getting played by the media regarding the lethal aspect, but am overall just worried the globe doesn't yet have a handle on the screening/quarantining/treatments.

So are you saying there is a roughly 98% curation rate?  That would be quite reassuring, I think it's just the "unknown origin of several US cases" thing that is freaking me out.  And it seems that infected peeps are getting through screening measures that are constantly evolving, so am just becoming super paranoid :).

I literally never travel or go anywhere outside my state of Iowa, so a trip out of state to walk around a park with thousands of tourists has me a bit unsettled (but would still really like to go).

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2 minutes ago, Boosted52405 said:

Yeah idk, I'm really getting played by the media regarding the lethal aspect, but am overall just worried the globe doesn't yet have a handle on the screening/quarantining/treatments.

So are you saying there is a roughly 98% curation rate?  That would be quite reassuring, I think it's just the "unknown origin of several US cases" thing that is freaking me out.  And it seems that infected peeps are getting through screening measures that are constantly evolving, so am just becoming super paranoid :).

I literally never travel or go anywhere outside my state of Iowa, so a trip out of state to walk around a park with thousands of tourists has me a bit unsettled (but would still really like to go).

I don't know if curation is the right word.  Have you ever gotten the flu?  It's just like that.  You feel like shit and then you get better.  Your body fights off the virus which is why one usually gets a high fever when they have the flu.  But again, what do I know?  I am not a doctor.  Please contact your doctor and I bet you would get a lot of the same information your getting here but do it just to hear it from an actual doctor.  I talked to the school nurse at my daughter's school, again not a doctor but getting closer, and she felt the same way I do.  This is getting blown way out of proportion.  Her school was currently in the middle of a bad flu outbreak and the nurse was much more worried about the flu than the Corona Virus because of what was mentioned earlier in this thread.  The flu is very dangerous for little kids but this Corona Virus doesn't seem to be.  Why doesn't the flu get this much coverage?  It's the media dude.  They love stories like this.  Now it will impact economic growth for sure, people are not going to go out as much, restaurants will suffer, movie tickets will suffer, travel will suffer, etc.  Factories are closing in China (Apple specifically was hit hard by this).  It will mess with the economy severely.  But as far as impacting human lives not so much IMO.

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1 hour ago, tbone3969 said:

I don't know if curation is the right word.  Have you ever gotten the flu?  It's just like that.  You feel like shit and then you get better.  Your body fights off the virus which is why one usually gets a high fever when they have the flu.  But again, what do I know?  I am not a doctor.  Please contact your doctor and I bet you would get a lot of the same information your getting here but do it just to hear it from an actual doctor.  I talked to the school nurse at my daughter's school, again not a doctor but getting closer, and she felt the same way I do.  This is getting blown way out of proportion.  Her school was currently in the middle of a bad flu outbreak and the nurse was much more worried about the flu than the Corona Virus because of what was mentioned earlier in this thread.  The flu is very dangerous for little kids but this Corona Virus doesn't seem to be.  Why doesn't the flu get this much coverage?  It's the media dude.  They love stories like this.  Now it will impact economic growth for sure, people are not going to go out as much, restaurants will suffer, movie tickets will suffer, travel will suffer, etc.  Factories are closing in China (Apple specifically was hit hard by this).  It will mess with the economy severely.  But as far as impacting human lives not so much IMO.

Very interesting and yep will be chatting with my doctor as well in a few weeks.  I suppose due to the news outlets, I didn't really know people were overcoming this virus, I was under the impression they were quarantined, bedridden, and seriously ill (with many dying).  I'll definitely do some reading too to better educate myself and to likely calm down my paranoia a bit.

EDIT - to add, and food for thought - this appears to be scattered all over the US now 😞

From CNN: "At least 10 states have cases of coronavirus: Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, Wisconsin -- and now, New York."

Edited by Boosted52405
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There is no containing it at this point.  Early on there was a chance but China did a shit job.  Once it got out of China it was pretty much impossible to contain.  Which is why the WHO raised the threat to "very high" and then the stock market tanked.  That's really the story in a nut shell.  And the stock market is tanking (well its actually up today but way down over the short term) because this will have huge economic impacts IMO.  

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On 2/25/2020 at 9:20 PM, SuperJimtendo said:

I wasn't going to post it but now I'm going to post it

 

 

E3B01B4F-8C6B-471E-871E-9C06B0126BD1.png

Well now wait a sec, just how far did these go and were these as contagious as the current Corona virus?  And I'm pretty sure no one really thought any of these were gonna "kill us all" 😛 

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3 hours ago, Estil said:

Well now wait a sec, just how far did these go and were these as contagious as the current Corona virus?  And I'm pretty sure no one really thought any of these were gonna "kill us all" 😛 

Nah I vividly remember a lot of people just about losing their shit over most/all of these, SARS especially comes to mind. Not only was it the first time I very much recall people buying out surgical mask en mass, it coincidentally also "originated" in China... in fact this whole Coronavirus panic is very nearly history repeating itself... with the exception we're neck deep in social media and everyone including their dog having a platform in Twitter and Instagram to spew their idiotic crap.

@Boosted52405 I would encourage you to not make any decisions until you thoroughly research on this yourself. Take some time and look up information on your own volition and don't trust any random news source, even if it is "reliable" or "credible" because unfortunately on some fundamental level all news in this age, at best, more fallible then ever. The best places to go would be the actual experts, the CDC and WHO. And as @tbone3969 basically put it, unless you fall into a category for higher risk for any illness (i.e. the elderly or those with comprimised immune systems) and you practice good hygiene & habits, the risk is negligible.

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I'm not a doctor, nor am I an expert; however, as the weeks drag on, here's my thoughts:

1. In Taiwan, I believe they just reported case number 42. However, 12 people have been considered cured, and I think one (or possibly two) people had died, the one I heard about was an older taxi driver who had hepatitis or something.

2. Outside of China, the two countries effected by this are Korea and Japan, Italy is up there too last time I checked, but it's far, far away from where I am living.

3. Wuhan is literally about 600 miles from where I live, China itself is even closer, and if you think about most of the people going in and out of Taiwan, it is to/from China, Korea, Japan.

4. It is all political, but imo the WHO is a joke. Thanks to them, everyone seems to think that Taiwan is having a huge outbreak (WHO lists Taiwan as being part of the 80,000 in China), whereas the truth there is 42 cases, twelve which are cured.

5. From what I've read, a large factor contributing to deaths in China is due to not having enough medical supplies. They tried to keep things under wraps, they failed, and the people have to pay the price. 

Sorry to get into politics a bit here, but I am just trying to help provide everyone with a different viewpoint. Here, everyone is literally wearing a mask, everywhere, with masks even being rationed. Then there was panic buying over rubbing alcohol, and some of the distilleries down south were told to switch from making Kaoliang grain alcohol to rubbing alcohol.

Yet despite being in close proximity to it all, and there being shortages of supplies left and right, I'm still here, and the number of cases and deaths is low.

Wash your hands, keep your throat moist, avoid crowds if you're really worried, wear a facial mask, and life goes on. Just keep your cool.

Screenshot_2020-03-03-17-41-40-14.png

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Member · Posted

Look folks, viruses spread.  We are setting at 3,118 dead.  Various reports from medical sources giving their best opinions are all making various observations but many of them are making it clear that even though this could spread rapidly, it's not something to be feared.  Instead of thinking "oh noes, I could dies!!!" just think that more likely you could get the flu.

Man, I'd hate to get the flu, and I'd want to do what I could to protect myself, but I get it about once every 2 years.  Am I afraid of that? No.  Am I going to change my life because there's a higher chance I might get it? Nope.

Every virus has it's own "characteristics" regarding incubation periods, how long it can be dormant and spreadable, the chances of people being carriers vs. people getting the full-blown symptoms and, of course, the general death rate.  A high percent of the people dying are the elderly. The recent outbreak in a retirement home in Oregon (or was it Washington state) had 4 people die.  That sounds horrible, and even though I sympathize with the families, my wife's grand father is in assisted living and they had a flu outbreak last year.  I can't recall the exact number, but more than four people died.  It didn't even make the news, and that's worth keeping in perspective.  Flu outbreaks happen in these communities and, unfortunately, they are deadly because the elderly have weakened immune systems.

Keep a perspective on this.  This is basically a new virus strand of which their is currently no vaccine, so it has "free range".  Pair it with the relatively high incubation period where people can be unknowingly contagious, and we have a "flu" that has the chance to spread rapidly.  Doctors and researchers need to be concerned and need to research it, but the people most at risk are the very young and the elderly.  The rest of us have well under 1% chance of dying if we get the coronavirus, and for the rest of us, if we catch it, we're just going to have a really, really bad week or two.

Edited by RH
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49 minutes ago, RH said:

 

Man, I'd hate to get the flu and I'd want to do what I could to protect myself but I get it about once every 2 years.  Am I afraid of that? No.  Am I going to change my life because there's a higher chance I might get it? Nope.

....

 

You get the flu every two years even WITH a flu shot?  Or do you not bother to get vaccinated every year?

 

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On 3/1/2020 at 2:13 PM, epiclotus said:

I absolutely agree.  

? because he opposed govt provided needle exchanges for junkies. LOL ok. 

 

politicizing this damn virus is annoying. Its why trump is going to win again. Everything is the worst ever and hyperbole. This is getting out of hand.

Edited by Quest4Nes
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