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The Spreading (And Potentially Deadly) Coronavirus Epidemic....


jonebone
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Known cases reported (China is the orange line.)

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Known cases reported, excluding China

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Interesting trend lines.  Currently, the cases outside of China are to infrequent for a solid trending curve to appear, but in China the curve is well defined and becoming consistent.

I was reading a published scientific paper yesterday and it was showing the R0 value for the coronavirus is supposedly in the 2.5-4 range.  For viruses, the R0 value is basically a number representing how many people an infected individual is likely to infect as well.  So, with an R0 value in the range of 2.5-4, if someone becomes ill with the virus, they will likely infect 2-4 other people.  This may seem high, but other illnesses have been much higher, at least before that were contained.

However, those numbers were based off of the reported numbers from the Chinese authorities through mid-January, IIRC.  At that time, I think there were less than 500 reported cases, so the sampling was low, and who knows how much of a cover up was already taking place at that time.

I also read an article that (disclosure) was on a tabloid site that was claiming an anonymous source from a Chines funeral home in Wuhuan was reporting that the people in the funeral homes are working 24/7 cremating bodies, coming directly from the hospital.  They are cremating 100's of bodies each day.  Supposedly, other funeral homes were reporting the same thing and the workers are only taking brief naps and are getting desperate because they are exhausted and running out of supplies.

Again, that was from a tabloid, but I've also seen leaked videos which, supposedly, are showing the stacks of bodies in body bags at the hospitals in Wuhuan, so it wouldn't surprise me if that reporting was legitimate, even though the source was a tabloid. 

I'm still not personally worried but the main concern I have about this is that (no surprise!) China is doing a cover up and it seems that in their efforts to hide this disgrace of their handling this situation, all of the quarantining and lack of supplies is probably making it worse. Furthermore, by reporting locally that "everything's fine", locals often tend to believe the state-run media and many aren't taking the precautions they could take if they were aware of how grave this situation has become. I've seen interviews of multiple people happily continuing to work and shop in the meat markets and they believe what they are being told and it's not a big deal.

This is just sad.  I expect them to lie to the world on many things, but it seems they are doing a huge disservice to their people by trying to cover this up.

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A physician who had tried warning his colleagues about the virus and who was arrested for spreading the information is among those who have died of this virus.  On a more positive note, however, it looks like an existing antiviral drug is doing to be tested as a treatment for this virus.  Hopefully it helps. You can read about it here:  The first coronavirus drug candidate is set for testing in China

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On 2/6/2020 at 9:39 AM, RH said:

 

I was reading a published scientific paper yesterday and it was showing the R0 value for the coronavirus is supposedly in the 2.5-4 range.  For viruses, the R0 value is basically a number representing how many people an infected individual is likely to infect as well.  So, with an R0 value in the range of 2.5-4, if someone becomes ill with the virus, they will likely infect 2-4 other people.  This may seem high, but other illnesses have been much higher, at least before that were contained.

 

 

A cursory search of "highest R0" seems to show the only R0's greater than 4 are all diseases that were eliminated via mass vaccinations, rather than containment.

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Member · Posted
7 hours ago, arch_8ngel said:

 

A cursory search of "highest R0" seems to show the only R0's greater than 4 are all diseases that were eliminated via mass vaccinations, rather than containment.

Well, that's part of what makes this virus both sad and unique. If managed properly this doesn't seem to be that contagious. However, it does have a high mortality rate and I do think China is grossly covering up their real numbers.

We still don't have the full facts on this one. I'm still note personally worried but I do hope China gets scared enough to ask for help. I think I read yesterday that they admitted to needing medical supplies and  were running out in hospitals.

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  • 2 weeks later...

1. The CDC is sending out warnings that the US is likely to get hit by this.

2. The mayor of San Francisco has declared a state of emergency.  (I assume for planning if the sh*t hits the fan.) 

3.  Apparently it has been determined that the virus can be spread through the sh*t of victims of the virus.

4.  San Francisco has yet to effectively deal with the decidely odd (and repugnant) behaviour of some residents taking a sh*t wherever they feel like doing so.

5.  What are the odds that all of the above will make  the city of San Francisco  finally do something about 4 - which should have been done long ago?

Edited by Tabonga
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Member · Posted

You guys see they think there's an outbreak of it at a Washington state nursing home?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/01/health/washington-state-possible-coronavirus-outbreak/index.html

And there's this. It's happening.

"As Washington State declared a state of emergency over the new coronavirus, researchers who studied two cases in the state say that the virus may have been spreading there for weeks, suggesting the possibility that up to 1,500 people in the state may have been infected."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/coronavirus-news.html

Edited by Makar
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Yeah, that along with the whistleblower complaint about health and human services not using adequate protective gear when they repatriated people is really concerning.

At this stage the news is almost certainly going to get worse before it gets better.

Long term, it will all "be fine" but in the meantime I expect a bit of panic.

Heard on the radio that the first case in Rhode Island has been confirmed, so now the east coast is in play.

Add to that the apparent news that it spreads without symptoms.

 

The good news in all of this is that no children have died from it at all and apparently tend toward very mild symptoms (including with infants).  So practically speaking, parents really only need to worry about the severity of their own symptoms and can at least expect their kids to be fine.

 

Pretty concerned about a guy like Pence being the filter for official news on health related issues though.  

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I'm still not overly concerned... to be honest concern is more how general public is starting to react. Everything I've seen/read/heard has it as still not even being as infectious or deadly as the Flu.

Lot of panic (in particular a discord group with some friends) where people are trying to encourage others to buy face/surgical masks. I just want to point out how stupid and non-useful that is. Surgical Masks do next to nothing to prevent the spread of any virus let alone coronavirus. Their purpose is to prevent Surgeons and those assisting from contaminating surgical areas via their own spit, etc. Protection from the virus would require something more akin to a full respirator and facemask.

Point of this message is; don't be that person and panic buy up a bunch of masks. Just practice standard sanitary/hygienic practices; wash your hands, don't touch your face, keep some hand sanitizer around if your that concerned. If you or someone you know is sick, then stay home.

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There are also reports in various places of people buying up stocks of toilet paper, bottled water and what not.  Reminds me of what happens to grocery stores when people think there is a big storm coming and they snag all consumables (like bread, eggs and milk) in sight - the stores wind up looking like they have been looted during a zombie apocalypse.  If things get so bad that we can't get toilet paper we have far more serious problems going on.

Didn't these fools learn anything from Y2K?

Edited by Tabonga
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38 minutes ago, RegularGuyGamer said:

My dad was a respiratory therapist for 35 years and says the H1N1 and SARS was worse by far. Cronovirus is about as deadly as another flu, which is bad but not Spanish flu or even H1N1 levels. 

Well, the official stats so far implies a death rate 10x higher than standard strains of the flu.  But since it is apparently spread by asymptomatic or low symptom carriers, who knows what the real number is.

But yeah, definitely not as bad as SARS or MERS in terms of death rate, just considerably more infectious than either.

Edited by arch_8ngel
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31 minutes ago, fsped09 said:

Yeah, this Donald tweet didn't age well either. 

 

What's crazy is that Pence has WORSE than zero experience in the form of having experience actively making medical crises worse than if he had simply maintained the status quo.

 

Edited by arch_8ngel
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