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The Spreading (And Potentially Deadly) Coronavirus Epidemic....


jonebone
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China will probably be at over 100 official deaths by the end of the weekend. It's the perfect storm situation. Illness originates in a major city in an unknown way. Illness goes largely unreported for weeks. People transfer it to others unknowingly for weeks. No known cure and the earliest estimates say a cure is a year+ out. Cities go into lockdown, preventing 35 million from leaving. 

They're at 56 dead, and almost 2000 infected now. Just a week ago, there were less than 10 dead and less than 500 infected. And these are the numbers China is confirming. The real figure is almost certainly much higher. The disease essentially had a 3 week jumpstart before any lockdowns were put into effect. 

Oh, and the flu is not more deadly percentage wise than this coronavirus. "the agency says influenza has caused up to 57,300 deaths and sickened up to 41.3 million people". That's only 1/13th of 1 percent of those infected who died. 

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2019/04/us-flu-still-elevated-dropping-deaths-high-57000

Meanwhile, this coronavirus is at a 3% death rate.

 

Edited by Makar
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I don't think anyone said that the flu was deadlier as a virus, rather last year it killed a large number of people and most rarely bat an eye when they think about flu season creeping in, yet with this coronavirus, Sars, etc everyone starts panicking, despite a much lower number of deaths overall.

Last time I read, origin was thought to be related to tainted snake meat.

 

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2 hours ago, fcgamer said:

I don't think anyone said that the flu was deadlier as a virus, rather last year it killed a large number of people and most rarely bat an eye when they think about flu season creeping in, yet with this coronavirus, Sars, etc everyone starts panicking, despite a much lower number of deaths overall.

Last time I read, origin was thought to be related to tainted snake meat.

 

New zoonotic diseases originating in a populous country that suppresses media coverage is concerning in and of itself.

 

 

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I'd be more concerned that Taiwan had been excluded from WHO for several years, given their close proximity with China. TBH, if some big epidemic does occur, and countries are being excluded from WHO due to political feet stamping of the big bully in the room? Sheesh.

Edited by fcgamer
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Unless we start hearing about the dead rising and feasting on the flesh of the living, I'm personally not too concerned. I felt like we were overdue for a mass viral pandemic panic, and sure enough here we are.

On 1/24/2020 at 7:40 AM, Wandering Tellurian said:

You may be overestimating the ability of modern medicine to cope with  a widespread outbreak (of any disease) - it takes time to develop, produce and distribute a vaccine - assuming one can be discovered (if at all) in a practical time frame,  And there is an extremely limited number of total hospital beds to treat severe cases - especially if you have to institute isolation of sick individuals - and there is always a danger of medical personnel getting the very disease they are trying to deal with.

I assume they more meant the capabilities of "modern medicine" such as preventive measures/treatments/etc and not just medications. We've come a long way in 102 years.

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6 hours ago, SpoonMan Abrams X said:

 

I assume  they more meant the capabilities of "modern medicine" such as preventive measures/treatments/etc and not just medications. We've come a long way in 102 years.

We still have a basic limitation on hospital beds (especially if we are talking cases that need to be isolated).  It is really a matter of overwhelming numbers in case of an out of control pandemic.

Also much (but not all) of the improvement   in the overall health of the body politic over the last century or so is due to improved sanitation (of various sorts) and increased safety in water and food supplies.   There hasn't been one in awhile but whenever there is a sanitation workers' strike that lasts very long in a large municipality that collects its own trash things go south really rapidly as garbage piles up (with attendant problems) surprisingly rapidly.

Edited by Wandering Tellurian
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Member · Posted

Reuters is reported yesterday that there are now 1925 confirmed cases and, I'm sure, much more today.

http://news.trust.org/item/20200126105121-12mxo

It seems the virus is roughly affecting double the number of people each day, though the death count percent went down.  Of course, standard disclaimer, this is only the numbers we're getting out of China which they are willing to report.  No idea how bad it really is. I'm still not worried about this, but it's interesting to observe.  Doubling the number infected each day is pretty rapid. Sure, 2,000 isn't a lot, but if that rate keeps up there should be another 1800-2000 reports today and by next Monday there could be a total of nearly a quarter million reported cases, in the worst case scenario.

Personally, I think the numbers/increase rates will go up but should start to considerably taper off.  This is because now that it's "known", everyone is being cautious.  This virus is suppose to have a 1-2 week incubation period, so if people showing signs today got it 2 weeks ago, the news wasn't spreading that much.  Still, it'd be impressive (in a sad and alarming way) if at it's peak intensity, 100,000 are reported to have contracted the virus in just one day, before it tapers off from there.  

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1 minute ago, RH said:

Reuters is reported yesterday that there are now 1925 confirmed cases and, I'm sure, much more today.

http://news.trust.org/item/20200126105121-12mxo

It seems the virus is roughly affecting double the number of people each day, though the death count percent went down.  Of course, standard disclaimer, this is only the numbers we're getting out of China which they are willing to report.  No idea how bad it really is. I'm still not worried about this, but it's interesting to observe.  Doubling the number infected each day is pretty rapid. Sure, 2,000 isn't a lot, but if that rate keeps up there should be another 1800-2000 reports today and by next Monday there could be a total of nearly a quarter million reported cases, in the worst case scenario.

Personally, I think the numbers/increase rates will go up but should start to considerably taper off.  This is because now that it's "known", everyone is being cautious.  This virus is suppose to have a 1-2 week incubation period, so if people showing signs today got it 2 weeks ago, the news wasn't spreading that much.  Still, it'd be impressive (in a sad and alarming way) if at it's peak intensity, 100,000 are reported to have contracted the virus in just one day, before it tapers off from there.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome

Always worth taking a look at history to see how China under-reports these types of things. 

(look at comparative mortality rates for SARS and tell me you think it is realistic that China had 1/3 the mortality rate of Hong Kong, Canada, or Singapore when they were well-known at the time to be nowhere near the WHO standards for physicians-per-capita or other basic healthcare measures)

 

 I doubt we'll have solid information on the actual communicability or mortality for this one until or unless it starts spreading in another country.

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Member · Posted
21 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome

Always worth taking a look at history to see how China under-reports these types of things. 

(look at comparative mortality rates for SARS and tell me you think it is realistic that China had 1/3 the mortality rate of Hong Kong, Canada, or Singapore when they were well-known at the time to be nowhere near the WHO standards for physicians-per-capita or other basic healthcare measures)

 

 I doubt we'll have solid information on the actual communicability or mortality for this one until or unless it starts spreading in another country.

Let's just be clear, I'll never defend China and there practices and reporting any statistics.  They will either fudge them to make them look like the "greatest country ever!" or the country "who has done the best in a bad situation."

Regardless, the only numbers we have to go off of are the ones they are reporting.  I'd never want this but until more reasonable countries start reporting numbers of how far this illness has spread and killed people, we'll never get a real picture of just how communicable or just how deadly this virus really is.

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Member · Posted

For the time being, it’s worthy to be cautious rather than going into global hysteria. If the virus is lurking within the country then it’s not a current serious threat to us, outside of China. I’d be much more of concern if there was a handful of infected popping up all over the world and affecting each continent.

Also the numbers can be misleading not only of the government agendas, but in China, the health resources are relatively lacking and the average person may also be delaying in seeking for treatment or even too poor to get the proper treatment. Thus the death rates would likely be more higher compared with the incidence of infected in the poorer countries compared with the first world countries.

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Member · Posted
4 minutes ago, cartman said:

Isn't the American CDC very skilled and knowledgeable for these type of things? I wonder how effetive they would be here.

Not sure if you're being sarcastic(honestly) or if you mean they could help China.  Well, China is a bit to arrogant to ask for help.

Personally, I'm still not worried but the US government flew out over 200 US citizens from Wuhaun, China and they flew them to a quarantine setup on a US military base in Alaska. So... yea, the CDC is taking this extremely seriously.

I also find it interesting, for lack of a better term, that as the Chinese counts of occurrences is going up, the fatality rate is going down.  IIRC, this morning over 6,000 people were confirmed to have contracted the virus, but the death toll was around 240-250.  That within the realm of statistical possibility, and if the populous is worried, they may be seeking medical assistance much more early and are being taken care properly.  However, the percentage rate is going down enough to make me wonder if China is undercutting those numbers in their favor.

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57 minutes ago, RH said:

Not sure if you're being sarcastic(honestly) or if you mean they could help China.  Well, China is a bit to arrogant to ask for help.

Personally, I'm still not worried but the US government flew out over 200 US citizens from Wuhaun, China and they flew them to a quarantine setup on a US military base in Alaska. So... yea, the CDC is taking this extremely seriously.

I also find it interesting, for lack of a better term, that as the Chinese counts of occurrences is going up, the fatality rate is going down.  IIRC, this morning over 6,000 people were confirmed to have contracted the virus, but the death toll was around 240-250.  That within the realm of statistical possibility, and if the populous is worried, they may be seeking medical assistance much more early and are being taken care properly.  However, the percentage rate is going down enough to make me wonder if China is undercutting those numbers in their favor.

I don't mean help but just in general, whether they'd have some solution. I used to watch those forensic shows and this agency popped up multiple times it seems like they're a prestigeous institute.

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3 minutes ago, cartman said:

I don't mean help but just in general, whether they'd have some solution. I used to watch those forensic shows and this agency popped up multiple times it seems like they're a prestigeous institute.

They are, but there are so many different flu viruses out there that a solution is a constantly moving target. Plus, they have limited resources, just like everyone else.

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14 minutes ago, Tulpa said:

They are, but there are so many different flu viruses out there that a solution is a constantly moving target. Plus, they have limited resources, just like everyone else.

Yeah it ought to be hard still to solve. There's the issue of resistance also even if it kills the virus effectively there might be some strain that survives and goes on. I heard this might be an issue with a lot of diseases that are containable today that tomorrow they might not be anymore.

But i think it would be correct to offer China help if there is something that can be contributed. Political differences with taxing and all the other shit, those can be ongoing while people still come together to prevent deaths occurring. I don't think there's an absolute correlation between disputes and disagreement in everything.

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8 hours ago, cartman said:

Isn't the American CDC very skilled and knowledgeable for these type of things? I wonder how effetive they would be here.

China would never let the west into ground zero, they don't need outsiders reporting on how "humanely" they're treating their infected (or suspected) citizens.

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6 hours ago, cartman said:

But i think it would be correct to offer China help if there is something that can be contributed. Political differences with taxing and all the other shit, those can be ongoing while people still come together to prevent deaths occurring. I don't think there's an absolute correlation between disputes and disagreement in everything.

Totally disagree here. Due to China's insistence, Taiwan is excluded from the WHO summits. Furthermore:

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3865894

The PRC doesn't feel the need to put politics aside for the benefit of the world, they reap what they sow.

An article about WHO, coronavirus, and Taiwan:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/22/china-health-coronavirus-wuhan-virus-spreads-taiwan-no-say-who/

Edit: To clarify, I don't want people dying unnecessarily either.

IMG_20200129_210155.jpg

Edited by fcgamer
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On 1/27/2020 at 11:25 PM, GPX said:

For the time being, it’s worthy to be cautious rather than going into global hysteria. If the virus is lurking within the country then it’s not a current serious threat to us, outside of China. I’d be much more of concern if there was a handful of infected popping up all over the world and affecting each continent.

All the more reason I hope this is, as Barney Fife would say, nipped in the bud before it can become a possible global hysteria.

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