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The Spreading (And Potentially Deadly) Coronavirus Epidemic....


jonebone

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21 minutes ago, Murray said:

Yup, tried yesterday. 

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I stocked the fuck up. I was getting some fried chicken in the deli and overheard people talking crazy about TP, so I went over and snagged a few packs out of some unattended carts. 😜 I didn’t really do that, but I did get some fresh fried chicken though.

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14 minutes ago, Richardhead said:

I stocked the fuck up. I was getting some fried chicken in the deli and overheard people talking crazy about TP, so I went over and snagged a few packs out of some unattended carts. 😜 I didn’t really do that, but I did get some fresh fried chicken though.

It’s cool. I’ll just jack some from work over the weekend. 

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My wife got the call just now that her school is closed tomorrow.  Parent with confirmed 'Rona (linked to the Biogen conference), child suspected and is being tested.  Various other kids and parents, either linked to the Biogen conference or this family, are also being tested with suspicion of infection.

My daughter goes to daycare in an elementary school in the district.  Keeping her home tomorrow as details slowly get out.

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34 minutes ago, MrMark0673 said:

My wife got the call just now that her school is closed tomorrow.  Parent with confirmed 'Rona (linked to the Biogen conference), child suspected and is being tested.  Various other kids and parents, either linked to the Biogen conference or this family, are also being tested with suspicion of infection.

My daughter goes to daycare in an elementary school in the district.  Keeping her home tomorrow as details slowly get out.

Where do you live?

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2 minutes ago, GPX said:

Regarding toilet paper, maybe there's a new trend of toilet paper collecting, that we just didn't realise? Somewhere out there, a couple of millionaires are collecting toilet paper...?

 

Why are game boxes so rare? Because everyone threw them out. Same goes for vintage TP. 

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8 hours ago, MrMark0673 said:

My wife got the call just now that her school is closed tomorrow.  Parent with confirmed 'Rona (linked to the Biogen conference), child suspected and is being tested.  Various other kids and parents, either linked to the Biogen conference or this family, are also being tested with suspicion of infection.

My daughter goes to daycare in an elementary school in the district.  Keeping her home tomorrow as details slowly get out.

Sicknesses in general spread like wildfire in schools, it stucks.  My 5 year old just missed an entire week of school with Flu A.  She was the "last kid at her table" to finally catch it and that's the way it goes.  So yeah, I would keep your kid home too.

Also, corona is definitely going to run it's course across the nation now if people haven't realized yet.  I'm hoping that it is seasonal like Flu and it goes dormant as the summer comes up (but possibly recurring in the colder months again).  Just hoping time is on our side because our country is woefully underprepared for a full fledged outbreak.  And our stock market is going to take a hell of a beating this year with the worst to come.

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6 minutes ago, MrMark0673 said:

Watertown Ma, she teaches in Arlington.

@jonebone Ain't that the truth!  Between me working at a middle school, my wife in kindergarten, and my daughter in daycare, I feel like we get hit with a different bug each week.  

Yeah, a couple of years ago, I felt like I was continually sick for an entire year as the kids hit me with everything they dragged home from daycare.

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I have always been prone to flus and colds - even when I got flu shots I would usually come down with it and I would get 2 or 3 nasty colds a year.

Since retiring I have not had a bout with either - I can only attribute it to no longer being exposed to everything that walked through the library doors.

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13 hours ago, MrMark0673 said:

My wife got the call just now that her school is closed tomorrow.  Parent with confirmed 'Rona (linked to the Biogen conference), child suspected and is being tested.  Various other kids and parents, either linked to the Biogen conference or this family, are also being tested with suspicion of infection.

My daughter goes to daycare in an elementary school in the district.  Keeping her home tomorrow as details slowly get out.

Sorry to hear this, not only is the virus itself terrible on its own, but the significant impact to work/life in general to take on all these measures - best of luck to you and your family.

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My city Fort Myers just had its first confirmed death from a 73 year old who died in the hospital my girlfriend works at.  People are going crazy here and buying all the water and Lysol wipes they can find.  I think they are overreacting wayyyy too much.  

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As someone who works on Wall St, this is one hell of a day... People are in a bit of panic right now...

Couple of thoughts:

1) I live on Long Island, and when I fell asleep last night, caseload of infections was 8. It’s now 18, just hours later. Schools are closing, Universities are closing, and the local fire department was just banned from responding to suspected coronavirus cases... all in all it feels like we’re going to be dealing with this for a while, but I hope I’m wrong. If you’re wondering about when we might expect this to end, look into Farr’s Law. Every outbreak in history, from elongated ones like HIV all the way to SARS have followed the bell curve trend. China has finally began reporting #s for new cases that are beginning to drop. This begs two questions: can we trust that data? And are they getting enough tests done for that data to be correct? We may never know... but in accordance with Farr’s Law, we seem to still be in beginning stages of the bell curve here in the US. That’s the way it feels at least based on trending growth.

2) My brother is a pharmacist. We had a semi-comical conversation about the whole thing last night and he joking said he’s convinced he’ll come in contact with or even acquire the virus soon. He deals with sick people all day long, so this seems plausible. He’s not very worried about it though. In fact, my wife is a nurse, and she’s not worried at all either. The more I speak with medical professionals, the more I find them complacent with the situation and expect that eventually it will blow over once a vaccine is created. If you speak with a medical professional, and their attitude is one of logical action and calm, then I think this is something to take comfort in... it is their field after all, and they’re the trained professionals.

3) ***This one is unsettling...

I hung up with a client yesterday. He works in the US but frequently visits Wuhan China to sell his products wholesale to distributors. Over his career he became friends with 7 notable individuals. 6 are multi millionaires, and 1 is a billionaire.  He became friendly with them and began frequenting Wuhan more often. His last trip was around Sept of 19. While there, he noticed a massive “factory” in the city that had recently expanded. He asked his clients about it... all of them... nobody would answer him... “we’re not allowed to talk of it”, was their response.  
He and one of the millionaires got drunk one night and he asked about the mystery “factory” again. The guy finally cracked... somewhat. From what he understood, the factory was run by the state for various purposes...the purposes could change... but the government was extremely tight lipped about it and the people knew not to talk about it openly, and especially not with foreigners. My client thought that was odd, but it is a communist and authoritarian gov after all, so it lines up.

Fast Forward to one week ago (March 2).

My client, hadn’t received an order from China for his wares in months... his biggest buyers, the 7 Chinese men hadn’t contacted him since November. His business is hurting because of it, but with the outbreaks, he’s unwilling to fly to Wuhan like he normally would. For an entire day, he called al of them incessantly. Finally one of them answered. It was one of the millionaires. He asked how he was to see if he was okay. He was healthy but he had fled China. He was somewhere in Europe and refused to give his location. The billionaire fled as well and his whereabouts are completely unknown. The other 5 millionaires were all dead... along with most of their families. My client asked his Chinese distributor how this could have happened? With their resources, they should have been able to stay healthy and avoid risky behaviors like venturing outside. He didn’t have an answer, but said it was suspicious. My client then asked him why he left China? Now, the Chinese distributor doesn’t answer in English very well.. he uses a translator most of the time, and over a phone call it wasn’t possible. When asked why he left, he kept saying the same one word answer... “Germany”... “Germany”.... this confused the shit out of my Client so he kept asking “what about Germany?” The Chinese distributor responded..”The factory... Holocaust”... 

My client kept probing him for more information. At the end of the conversation he came away with a few things: 1) the police were doing daily checks on every citizen. If you or your family had a temperature, you were taken by a gang of 7-8 people to your home, and your door was welded shut to lock you inside. 2) the “factory” seemed to be a cremation center for dead bodies... but this is where things get even darker... the police and certain hospitals were burning infected elderly patients alive.. they’d be bound at feet and wrists and sealed in a body bag.  I’ve done some independent looking into these “facts” and was actually able to verify a bit of it. Burning infected elderly patients alive and welding infected people into their home in the ghettos seems to have happened according to independent accounts.  
His contact also gave my client one other piece of info. A government worker in his circle of friends escaped China to flee the disease. When the two friends reconnected after fleeing separately, he said that before he left, the “factory” made a purchase for incinerators... one that could get hot enough to burn a body, and could burn 2-3 bodies a day. According to the worker, Tens of Thousands of these incinerators were ordered by the government. He estimated  the ability to effectively cremate 60-100k bodies per day.

My client was justifiably horrified by all of this and asked his Chinese distributor the last question of that conversation... and this one is by far the most troubling piece of info... He asked him WHEN he fled Wuhan.... the response was “December 5th”.

December 5th means that this outbreak was taking hold WAYY before January..and it must’ve gotten bad enough by Dec 5 to cause him to flee his own country... I’ve seen estimates that the virus began running rampant as early as late September/early October. I’m beginning to wonder if that’s actually the case.. either way... I don’t think I believe a single thing coming out of China right now, especially not reported statistics. This also lines up with a statement my brother made last night. As a pharmacist he believes the outbreak has been spreading for a lot longer than most people are being told.
 

This all came from my client. I take it with a grain of salt and it almost sounds like a movie script, but then he’s never been someone to exaggerate things and he’s relatively calm and collected overall. The conversation he had with his distributor spooked him badly.
I know this might read like some conspiracy theory mumbo jumbo, but this is what I was told by someone who literally had boots on the ground in Wuhan. I’m not entirely sure what to believe, but the situation in China feels grim right now for Wuhan residents. 

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18 minutes ago, Lambda said:

 

December 5th means that this outbreak was taking hold WAYY before January..and it must’ve gotten bad enough by Dec 5 to cause him to flee his own country... I’ve seen estimates that the virus began running rampant as early as late September/early October. I’m beginning to wonder if that’s actually the case.. either way... I don’t think I believe a single thing coming out of China right now, especially not reported statistics. This also lines up with a statement my brother made last night. As a pharmacist he believes the outbreak has been spreading for a lot longer than most people are being told.
 

 

This timeline just doesn't hold water, when you consider how many people transit the impacted areas of China and that we are JUST NOW getting confirmed cases and deaths in western countries.

I definitely don't believe the stats published by China, but I think it is extremely unlikely that people "in the know" were fleeing this particular viral outbreak as early as December.

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