Heritage Auctions Thread

[AdamW | 713]

2 minutes ago, CodysGameRoom said:

Market manipulation is a type of market abuse where there is a deliberate attempt to interfere with the free and fair operation of the market; the most blatant of cases involve creating false or misleading appearances with respect to the price of, or market for, a product, security or commodity.

On that basis it's hard to say with any certainty whether anything you cite meets the definition. It seems more or less impossible to me to declare whether the value Deniz gave for a game on a TV show (that is widely known to have a limited basis in reality) was an accurate one. There's very little data to base that assessment on. At the least, nobody seems to have any actual evidence or solid analysis indicating that it was an overstatement.

[Laseki | 128]

3 hours ago, ExplodedHamster said:

This is so lazy, I’m sorry. Jone has been a well respected member of the community for many years. If you want to take potshots like this and not address the arguments on their merits, it doesn’t help your position. 

What arguments?

He brushed aside an almost hour long video that shows large scale market manipulation by a small group of people by saying more or less that the creator of said video just doesn't like sealed games.

He ignores everything in the video that shows them wiping their asses with the hobby because he clearly has money dumped into the scam and is friends with one of the people involved.

There is no agenda like he thinks considering this is the same shit Jim halperin did 40 years ago with the coin market as shown in the video.

Edited August 25, 2021 by Laseki

[AdamW | 713]

To expand on that a bit, classic "market manipulation" is something like a pump-and-dump, where you spread objectively false information about a company to make it appear more valuable. This works because there actually are objective ways to analyze the value of a company. If you spread a rumour that company X is about to close a $200m deal or announce discovery of a giant gold mine or something, when it isn't, that is very clearly manipulation. You're clearly affecting the process a reasonable investor would go through in evaluating the company.

Nothing that's been mentioned here is that clear-cut. Deniz didn't, AFAIK, make any objectively false claims about the game to justify his valuation of it. If, for instance, he'd said it was the only copy in the world, when he obviously knows it isn't, *that* would much more clearly be something you could call "manipulation" by direct comparison to contexts where that's a term of art. But he didn't. He, AFAIK, made fairly vague and/or subjective statements, none of which were clearly false, then gave a value as an opinion. That's a much less clear-cut situation.

[BriGuy82 | 768]

The video missed the part where the Carolina collection was then lent to wata to be paraded around at game conventions as part of the self promotion. So the graders grading their own games then promoted their own games which they graded?  Honestly it gets a little confusing.

Edited August 25, 2021 by BriGuy82

[CodysGameRoom | 2,008]

To be clear, I like and respect Jone. If he says Deniz is a nice guy who’s passionate about games I believe him.

But that has about zero to do with what’s actually going on with Heritage and Wata. Being nice and passionate about games doesn’t excuse what’s happening in my opinion. 

And I think the only way to have an unbiased opinion on this is if you don’t own any graded games. 

Edited August 25, 2021 by CodysGameRoom
Typo

[tidaldreams | 654]

I can't keep up with this thread anymore.

[WarMech | 82]

1 minute ago, CodysGameRoom said:

And I think the only way to have an unbiased opinion on this is if you don’t own any graded games. 

I don't have any graded games and I'm confused as all hell, mostly because of all the conversation I missed. I did watch that video from the suggested timestamp provided, though.

 

Not good for someone who was actually thinking of taking part in the Feb auction.

[LifeGame | 760]

I want them to go up in price and i want them to go down in price...for real...what is my situation?

[Boss | 16]

4 minutes ago, LifeGame said:

I want them to go up in price and i want them to go down in price...for real...what is my situation?

As a collector and not a reseller we want them all to go down in price so we can continue to take part in a hobby we enjoy and not be priced out. 

[LifeGame | 760]

3 minutes ago, Boss said:

As a collector and not a reseller we want them all to go down in price so we can continue to take part in a hobby we enjoy and not be priced out. 

I am both, very very much both...

[AdamW | 713]

16 minutes ago, CodysGameRoom said:

To be clear, I like and respect Jone. If he says Deniz is a nice guy who’s passionate about games I believe him.

But that has about zero to do with what’s actually going on with Heritage and Wata. Being nice and passionate about games doesn’t excuse what’s happening in my opinion. 

And I think the only way to have an unbiased opinion on this is if you don’t own any graded games. 

BTW, on that point - I don't own any graded games, and don't have any plans to have any graded any time soon.

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

At the end of the day, the only thing to likely come of this is more information for people to make decisions. Now folks will have the information on the relationships behind the scenes. The "players" in this game. As much crap as I give Wata, HA and all those speculators, I have zero problems with Deniz as a person. I don't NOT want to see him and Wata do well. I enjoy it when people do something they love and are successful at it. It is feel good stuff. 

None of this news and scrutiny should be surprising. What is surprising is that it has taken this long for some light to be shed on the high end sealed and graded market over the last couple of years. Scrutiny should be expected to keep people in check, regardless of whether there is any ill will going on. With the amount of money and uninformed consumers at play here, it is healthy for transparency to exist and questions to be asked. 

The argument of the day on Facebook groups is "oh okay then don't buy sealed games if you believe all this crap. Who cares!" Well I care, and people like me who enjoy collecting mint CIB or sealed games for our personal collections (and NOT solely for investing purposes) are now priced out of the market. And it sucks. So yeah, I care. And I also care about all of the uninformed people rushing into this thing starry eyed and thinking that they can grade all these switch games and flip them for goo goo bucks. People are going to lose. They are going to lose big. This market has been up up up. It is not going to go up forever. 

Bottom line for me is even taking this video aside, folks may have "gained" value on their games, but community was lost at the expense. All of this creates tension, cliques, friction. People get jealous, backdoor, engage in shitty practices. I used to engage in some of the FB groups, but the toxicity turned me off big time. VGS and NA have always felt "authentic" and welcoming. Back to my CIB and loose cart only collecting. The community brings me joy and peace of mind, neither of which you can pump up with money.

[ExplodedHamster | 404]

3 hours ago, CodysGameRoom said:

And how much did WATA and Heritage get paid?

I mean these are for profit businesses, not charities. I would expect them to profit and want to profit. That’s not really evidence. 

[ExplodedHamster | 404]

3 hours ago, JeremiahJT said:

Has WATA and Heritage Auctions made the news with copies of Stadium Events, Little Samson, or The Flintstones: Surprise at Dinosaur Peak? All the games that have broke these records have been common mass produced games. Sure some have been rarer variants, but all the games have been common. This to me points to manipulation.

If they make the news for a $2,000,000 Stadium Events they do not make any more money outside of that one copy. There are no more sealed copies for people to send in. They make the news with a Super Mario 64 or a Legend of Zelda then every Tom, Dick, and Harry with a sealed copy of those (of which there are still plenty out there) send in their copy of those games and they pay for them to be graded at a value of what just sold (taking into account condition and variant). And remember WATA charges based on the value of the game.

Top condition items of popular franchises/athletes/characters are what sell when hobbies transform into large-scale collectibles (Jordan rookies, Charizards, Turtles, etc). SE and Dinosaur Peak are games basically nobody played and have absolutely no large-scale impact. They are niche. They will still sell fine,  as enough old school collectors are around, but the items that will be worth the most will be the highest grade Marios, Zeldas, and Pokemons of the world. 

Edited August 25, 2021 by ExplodedHamster

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

14 minutes ago, ExplodedHamster said:

Top condition items of popular franchises/athletes/characters are what sell when hobbies transform into large-scale collectibles (Jordan rookies, Charizards, Turtles, etc). SE and Dinosaur Peak are games basically nobody played and have absolutely no large-scale impact. They are niche. They will still sell fine,  as enough old school collectors are around, but the items that will be worth the most will be the highest grade Marios, Zeldas, and Pokemons of the world. 

Agree 100%. Mario, Zelda and Pokémon are king. They are also all still very relevant in today’s culture. And I don’t see that stopping anytime soon (if ever). 

[ExplodedHamster | 404]

43 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

 

Bottom line for me is even taking this video aside, folks may have "gained" value on their games, but community was lost at the expense. All of this creates tension, cliques, friction. People get jealous, backdoor, engage in shitty practices. I used to engage in some of the FB groups, but the toxicity turned me off big time. VGS and NA have always felt "authentic" and welcoming. Back to my CIB and loose cart only collecting. The community brings me joy and peace of mind, neither of which you can pump up with money.

To be fair, this happened well before WATA. NA had devolved into the same old shit of sealed and non-sealed collectors arguing for no good reason over and over. It was a cycle of that and like 3-4 other debates repeating nonstop. Certainly it has gotten worse overall, but that happens in every hobby when the money gets really serious. Inevitably, it ends up a “populist” versus “elitist” debacle. It’s really just a microcosm of society.

Edit - I should say the main forum devolved. The other forums were all still pretty good, albeit traffic was way down.

Edited August 25, 2021 by ExplodedHamster

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

4 minutes ago, ExplodedHamster said:

To be fair, this happened well before WATA. NA had devolved into the same old shit of sealed and non-sealed collectors arguing for no good reason over and over. It was a cycle of that and like 3-4 other debates repeating nonstop. Certainly it has gotten worse overall, but that happens in every hobby when the money gets really serious. Inevitably, it ends up a “populist” versus “elitist” debacle. It’s really just a microcosm of society.

Edit - I should say the main forum devolved. The other forums were all still pretty good, albeit traffic was way down.

That is a fair point. Though the scale that this is on now is much larger and deeper and spreads across many different platforms. Its like comparing a small fire in your backyard to a forest fire. Sure, they are both fires, but one does much more damage and affects many more lives.

Edited August 25, 2021 by WalterWhiteJr.

[JeremiahJT | 75]

23 minutes ago, ExplodedHamster said:

Top condition items of popular franchises/athletes/characters are what sell when hobbies transform into large-scale collectibles (Jordan rookies, Charizards, Turtles, etc). SE and Dinosaur Peak are games basically nobody played and have absolutely no large-scale impact. They are niche. They will still sell fine,  as enough old school collectors are around, but the items that will be worth the most will be the highest grade Marios, Zeldas, and Pokemons of the world. 

If popularity is the driving force for collectibles then why is the most expensive card of a baseball player nobody alive has seen play? Shouldn't it be a Jordan or James card?

I cannot comment on Pokemon or Turtles (as in Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles?), but comics also does not follow this perfectly. Spider-Man is by far more popular than Superman, but Action Comics #1 is number one. One of the two main reasons is its rarity.

It seems video games is an outlier where popularity (or opportunity for more exploitation) trumps rarity. Trumps it by an order of magnitude at that.

[ExplodedHamster | 404]

20 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

 

10 minutes ago, JeremiahJT said:

If popularity is the driving force for collectibles then why is the most expensive card of a baseball player nobody alive has seen play? Shouldn't it be a Jordan or James card?

I cannot comment on Pokemon or Turtles (as in Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles?), but comics also does not follow this perfectly. Spider-Man is by far more popular than Superman, but Action Comics #1 is number one. One of the two main reasons is its rarity.

It seems video games is an outlier where popularity (or opportunity for more exploitation) trumps rarity. Trumps it by an order of magnitude at that.

It’s a bit more complicated than that. Jordans are not number 1 value, but their value to population ratios are insane. If there were, say, 10-15 Jordan PSA 10s (instead of 325ish), they might well outsell a single Honus Wagner PSA 10.
 

When populations of games do come out, I believe people will be shocked how low population is for elite grade games. There could be 500 Mario 64, if there are only 5-10 9.8/A++ over time, their value will always destroy a decent sealed copy of Stadium Events. Demand will be much higher amongst the new crowd. 

Edited August 25, 2021 by ExplodedHamster

[AdamW | 713]

7 minutes ago, JeremiahJT said:

If popularity is the driving force for collectibles then why is the most expensive card of a baseball player nobody alive has seen play? Shouldn't it be a Jordan or James card?

I cannot comment on Pokemon or Turtles (as in Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles?), but comics also does not follow this perfectly. Spider-Man is by far more popular than Superman, but Action Comics #1 is number one. One of the two main reasons is its rarity.

It seems video games is an outlier where popularity (or opportunity for more exploitation) trumps rarity. Trumps it by an order of magnitude at that.

It's not purely about popularity. Action #1 is a big deal because of its foundational status to superhero comics; it's where the whole industry started, pretty much. Spiderman came along a lot later; he's a popular character from a later age, along with a ton of others. And rarity matters, of course. If there were 10,000 Action #1s out there in perfect shape they'd be worth a lot less. But the point is, you can't just determine which thing is the most valuable purely by figuring out which one is the rarest. There are comics rarer than action #1 which aren't worth as much. It's only #8 for rarity in this list, but #1 for value:

https://rarest.org/entertainment/comic-books

[OptOut | 8,884]

 

Healthy looking graph there, huh! Jim Halperin helped do this to the graded coin market in the 80's... Now he's playing with our toys.

Anyone want to bet on where the Super Mario 64 would sit on a graph like that? Good luck speculating in a market where you are blind and others can see...

[zoiks66 | 72]

The easiest and cleanest way for it to be proved that the explosion of values of sealed video games isn’t 100% caused by the market manipulation of grading companies, auction houses, and/or fractional share companies would be for buyers of the 6 figure games to reveal themselves and not be affiliated with a grading company, auction house, and/or fractional share company.  That would prove that there is actual demand at these prices.  I honestly have never believed anyone without a corporate agenda has bought any of these high priced sealed games.

[GPX | 1,369]

5 hours ago, Gloves said:

The real scam nobody is talking about is how I market manipulated VGS Likes by closing down the threads people made and redirecting them to my own post of the video in this thread. 

Classic abuse of power, I'm all about those Likes! 

Please someone like me... 

I vote we burn this guy!

[Tyree_Cooper | 755]

10 hours ago, jonebone said:

You have to watch until the 51 minute part until the agenda becomes clear, he admits hating graded games. 

I hate to go scratch someone's post, I'm fine with everyone's opinion, but he didn't say he hates graded games. Here for you what he said:

51:25

<< And I hope this ridiculous practice of trying to extract profit from the suckers who buy the hype will end sooner rather than later. >>

A moment later he shows Shawn with some graded games.

So it seems pretty clear the practice he's talking about is... what he explained during the previous 50 minutes of video, where he never said grading in itself is shit. Worst he said about grading is that it's arbitrary.

Edit: and the example he gives for how arbitrary it is is such a big punch in everyone's face that i find him way too nice not using actual insults (that tomb raider straight out of the vietnam war graded 9.8).

Edited August 25, 2021 by Tyree_Cooper

[GPX | 1,369]

4 hours ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

That is a fair point. Though the scale that this is on now is much larger and deeper and spreads across many different platforms. Its like comparing a small fire in your backyard to a forest fire. Sure, they are both fires, but one does much more damage and affects many more lives.

Market manipulation, shill bidding etc. have existed way prior to the recent couple of years. However, manipulation with 3-4 figures as opposed to manipulation with 6-7 figures is now an entire level of shenanigans that isn’t without significant repercussions.