Look at these prices...unreal right ?

[MiamiSlice | 3,093]

49 minutes ago, avatar! said:

Not knowing anything about the prices of Beanie Babies, I did a search and some still sell for crazy amounts. Sure, these are the "exceptions", and I'm definitely not saying all LRG will be selling for crazy amounts, but quite a few absolutely will! I mean, already some LRG games are selling for thousands of dollars...

 

Who's gonna tell him? Do I have to explain it? It's late here but I'm willing to explain it tomorrow. 

[O.G. CIB | 415]

2 hours ago, AdamW said:

Well, sure, they're selling for that right now. But right now we're in the middle of one of the craziest macroeconomic phases of recent history, with gigantic piles of spare cash sloshing around the economy, and the prices on just about every asset class from houses to sneakers to trading cards to video games to things that don't really exist at all are through the roof.

It seems reasonable to assume there is a heavy speculative interest in the market, and any time that's the case, you can't just assume prices will continue to go up and to the right. It's possible, but it's not by any stretch assured.

Again I'd take the comics boom as a reference point; a lot of those sixteen-variant [fifth] "#1" [in the last four months] issues were changing hands for elevated prices after they came out. For a year or two. Then the market figured out no-one was actually that interested in owning them and everyone was just speculating on them, and the prices fell through the floor. The only stuff from that period that's still valuable tends to be things that actually turned out to have lasting significance, frequently real #1s of series that were unheralded at first and so which no-one bought and immediately slabbed for investment purposes but actually, you know, opened and read.

LRG games look a lot like the sixteen-variant, nine "#1s" a year comics to me. How many LRG games do you think people are opening and playing, versus how many are being immediately shipped off to WATA or at least shelved and never touched? A sealed, pristine copy of SMB or Pokemon Red is worth a lot of money because no-one bought those games and just stuck them on the shelf, they opened them and played them and loved them and have strong childhood memories of them. That doesn't apply to this stuff. Is anyone in twenty years going to be thinking of those happy days of childhood when they played the LRG Jak and Daxter collector's box set? Nah. (It's interesting to speculate on what they might get nostalgic about, but it ain't this).

The only thing that differs for me is future switch collecting, if that becomes a thing, will be unmatched. Not only because of LRG but actual printed physical copies are down across the board. Nintendo of America min. print is 5,000 I believe and some of these popular indie games are getting low print runs. 

[avatar! | 1,811]

2 hours ago, AdamW said:

LRG games look a lot like the sixteen-variant, nine "#1s" a year comics to me. How many LRG games do you think people are opening and playing, versus how many are being immediately shipped off to WATA or at least shelved and never touched? A sealed, pristine copy of SMB or Pokemon Red is worth a lot of money because no-one bought those games and just stuck them on the shelf, they opened them and played them and loved them and have strong childhood memories of them. That doesn't apply to this stuff. Is anyone in twenty years going to be thinking of those happy days of childhood when they played the LRG Jak and Daxter collector's box set? Nah. (It's interesting to speculate on what they might get nostalgic about, but it ain't this).

I completely agree, those classic NES games etc. will certainly become the next Action Comics #1 etc.

I'm not saying LRG games will be worth millions in 30 years, BUT, I am saying some of them will absolutely sell for such prices that people will look back on today and say "dang! wish I had purchased a bunch of those LRG games back in the day..."

Also, just because people are not playing LRG Jak and Daxter in no way means it won't be worth 10 times what it's selling for now. How many people have read Action Comics #1 or Detective Comics #27 or Bone #1?
WAIT - you never heard of Bone #1? It's an indie comic that came out 30 years ago! and look, prices for copies that are not even NM (9.0 is technically VG+) are thousands of dollars

LRG games will be like Bone #1, at least some of them certainly will be. Slowly they will appreciate in value to the point where 30 years from now they will sell for 10s or 100s of time cost. Bone #1 at $3000 is over 1000 times original cost. The first LRG - Breach & Clear was $24.99 so 100 times cost would put it at about $2500. Wouldn't surprise me if it reaches that value, even if it is "only" $300 now (which is it's going rate). And you know those crazy prices on Shantae, maybe they will go down, but I doubt it. In 30 years that $1200 Shantae might go for $12,000 or more.

[AdamW | 713]

Sure I've heard of Bone. I've got a full set of hardcover collections (that aren't worth much because comic people like single issues ). But that's actually exactly the kind of thing I was talking about above: Bone was an under-the-radar indie comic that came out without making much of a splash (and had a small print run), then gradually built a following to the point where the og #1 became sought after. It wasn't released with SIX VARIANT COVERS and hyped to heaven in the comic press at the time. The equivalent of a "Bone #1" in current gaming terms would maybe be if, I dunno, Undertale or Celeste had been initially released physically by some minor imprint and only a few hundred copies had been made which most people just tore open and played. It's not your typical heavily hyped LRG re-release of a 20 year old game with some pins in the box.

Some LRG games might wind up being worth something, yeah. We agree on that. But I wouldn't want to be in the business of predicting which (except obvious stuff like the first few, and Celeste will probably hold up okay). It's not necessarily the ones selling for high prices right now.

[AdamW | 713]

I definitely wouldn't want to guess about Shantae. Either it becomes such a self-fulfilling meme that all the mountains of shantae stuff lrg keeps pushing out turn into legit gold, or it'll be compete beanie baby territory and all of them except the actual og rare ones will be completely worthless and people will be embarrassed to admit they bought them

[sp1nz | 611]

8 hours ago, AdamW said:

The equivalent of a "Bone #1" in current gaming terms would maybe be if, I dunno, Undertale or Celeste had been initially released physically by some minor imprint and only a few hundred copies had been made which most people just tore open and played. It's not your typical heavily hyped LRG re-release of a 20 year old game with some pins in the box.

For Undertale there was a limited original print of 200 through Kickstarter rewards - numbered non-sealed slipcover with sealed game, soundtrack and artbook (dunno why I took pics on some dusty foam matt back in the day but hey):

Fangamer also has the "Collector's Editions" with the Heart Locket that are still being sold or maybe even re-printed for some systems. Would people covet the original PC Kickstarter CEs now or in 30 years? I don't know and definitely not for what kind of price. How many people even know about this version to begin with?

Edited June 1, 2021 by sp1nz

[AdamW | 713]

@sp1nz Ah yeah, I'd forgotten about that one. It's still not quite the same but a lot closer, so I wouldn't be surprised if that does hold pretty good value. The fangamer editions less so as they're continuing to reprint those as long as people want to buy them.

[segashack | 15]

I'm not a big Shantae fan, but in summer 2020 was buying some wii u games I missed and almost bought it many times for 15ish dollars. Now it's going for 60.

 

Twilight Princess HD now sells for 80. Yikes

[avatar! | 1,811]

On 6/1/2021 at 8:05 AM, sp1nz said:

For Undertale there was a limited original print of 200 through Kickstarter rewards - numbered non-sealed slipcover with sealed game, soundtrack and artbook (dunno why I took pics on some dusty foam matt back in the day but hey):

Fangamer also has the "Collector's Editions" with the Heart Locket that are still being sold or maybe even re-printed for some systems. Would people covet the original PC Kickstarter CEs now or in 30 years? I don't know and definitely not for what kind of price. How many people even know about this version to begin with?

That's definitely a collector's item, but it has two things going against it.

1)It's for the PC - PC games in general just don't retain their value with little exception. You can find old PC games that you feel *should* be valuable, but simply are not - but of course one never knows, in 30 years maybe there will be a huge demand for vintage PC games
2)As was noted, the Collector's Edition is readily available for PS4 and Switch. While not as rare, and not numbered, it has everything the PC game has.

 

[AdamW | 713]

I'd bet on some PC games going up, once the market sorts out what it likes. There are already some that are getting up there; any classic LucasArts title (Monkey Island 1 can go into the thousands, I think), original Doom and Doom 2 big boxes for e.g. So I don't think that'll necessarily count against Undertale in the long run. Fun to speculate though

[sp1nz | 611]

2 hours ago, avatar! said:

That's definitely a collector's item, but it has two things going against it.

1)It's for the PC - PC games in general just don't retain their value with little exception. You can find old PC games that you feel *should* be valuable, but simply are not - but of course one never knows, in 30 years maybe there will be a huge demand for vintage PC games
2)As was noted, the Collector's Edition is readily available for PS4 and Switch. While not as rare, and not numbered, it has everything the PC game has.

Yeah, I put the Heart Locket Collector's Edition in quotation marks because it's not really that collectible - maybe it'll hit $200+ in 5-10+ years for couple of the release platforms, nothing too big by my estimation in any case. Also I know PC collecting is more niche - even with an indie megahit like Undertale. I wouldn't bet on it being valuable into far future, but if some modern PC title will be, then the Kickstarter edition definitely fits the bill better than most. Still original platform release doesn't always mean much for future collectability either - we can look to Arcade PCBs or Famicom Disk System Zelda - people will put their stock on American NES first appearances over many originals. Speculating on any Kickstarter rewards overall would be a huge gamble in my opinion though. I was more presenting the case that such limited editions exist but that may not mean much into the future.

There are definitely valuable computer games and I imagine it goes beyond functionality of the copy too but games beyond a thousand dollars are definitely few and far between for non-sealed especially. As for contents between Undertale CEs, they're not too different, one could argue the common CE is more enticing content wise and platform wise too but looking at retro collecting behavior I would say that content being almost the same is not a deterrent for potential value. Something being NFR or 5-screw or hang-tab box or cover variant or -1 print run etc. doesn't mean much of the package or its contents changes but it means a lot for demand and potential value. In any case it'll be fun to see how things develop for modern games, PC games, weird Kickstarter editions and beyond even when I'm not one to let go of my non dupes.

Edited June 2, 2021 by sp1nz

[Dumars2001 | 164]

 Nes raw Swords and Serpents sold for $1,899. Crazy times!

 

https://www.ebay.com/itm/373102192364?epid=56236715&hash=item56de9fa6ec%3Ag%3A0cMAAOSwrede~hqq&nma=true&si=mdOX%2BnMVPOWLIXF1d8vkNA2fV34%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

 

[final fight cd | 186]

5 minutes ago, Dumars2001 said:

 Nes raw Swords and Serpents sold for $1,899. Crazy times!

 

https://www.ebay.com/itm/373102192364?epid=56236715&hash=item56de9fa6ec%3Ag%3A0cMAAOSwrede~hqq&nma=true&si=mdOX%2BnMVPOWLIXF1d8vkNA2fV34%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

 

That box art is awesome. Kinda surprised it isn’t more expensive from that single point alone. 

[DoctorEncore | 3,691]

1 hour ago, Dumars2001 said:

 Nes raw Swords and Serpents sold for $1,899. Crazy times!

 

https://www.ebay.com/itm/373102192364?epid=56236715&hash=item56de9fa6ec%3Ag%3A0cMAAOSwrede~hqq&nma=true&si=mdOX%2BnMVPOWLIXF1d8vkNA2fV34%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

 

I sincerely hope it sold for a much lower Best Offer price. Yikes.

[Dumars2001 | 164]

14 minutes ago, DoctorEncore said:

I sincerely hope it sold for a much lower Best Offer price. Yikes.

This was a straight up Buy it now. 

[MiamiSlice | 3,093]

1 hour ago, Dumars2001 said:

 Nes raw Swords and Serpents sold for $1,899. Crazy times!

 

https://www.ebay.com/itm/373102192364?epid=56236715&hash=item56de9fa6ec%3Ag%3A0cMAAOSwrede~hqq&nma=true&si=mdOX%2BnMVPOWLIXF1d8vkNA2fV34%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

 

I had this game when I was a little kid. I don’t know who thought it was a good idea to give me this. I could never get past floor 2. 

[chuppy44 | 56]

4 hours ago, avatar! said:

That's definitely a collector's item, but it has two things going against it.

1)It's for the PC - PC games in general just don't retain their value with little exception. You can find old PC games that you feel *should* be valuable, but simply are not - but of course one never knows, in 30 years maybe there will be a huge demand for vintage PC games
2)As was noted, the Collector's Edition is readily available for PS4 and Switch. While not as rare, and not numbered, it has everything the PC game has.

 

But what makes people think modern console games are going to fare any better when they are all basically identical to PC and were designed as PC games in the first place (unlike older games that were unique to the original hardware)?

I have no desire to collect for modern consoles, mainly for that reason. Maybe that's just me though.

[avatar! | 1,811]

5 minutes ago, chuppy44 said:

But what makes people think modern console games are going to fare any better when they are all basically identical to PC and were designed as PC games in the first place (unlike older games that were unique to the original hardware)?

I have no desire to collect for modern consoles, mainly for that reason. Maybe that's just me though.

That's definitely just you

Well, maybe not just you, but you're definitely in the minority! Look, consoles sell much better than PC games, they make tons of retro consoles, they're plug-n-play, people like them, people are willing to pay lots of money for them, and with little exception consoles and console games appreciate in value while PC games do not.

[Tanooki | 4,933]

There are a good number of big box old PC games that get over the $100 mark.  They've gone up, it wasn't too terribly long ago no one would have paid that.  Not keeping up with console definitely, but some are not fun to pick up.

[AdamW | 713]

2 hours ago, Dumars2001 said:

This was a straight up Buy it now. 

Yeah, eBay's current behavior is that if it sold for an offer price it would say so, but it wouldn't tell you what it was. It would just have the price crossed out and "best offer accepted". This changed about a month ago - before that it was just showing them as sold for full price in the publicly viewable HTML.

[avatar! | 1,811]

1 hour ago, Tanooki said:

There are a good number of big box old PC games that get over the $100 mark.  They've gone up, it wasn't too terribly long ago no one would have paid that.  Not keeping up with console definitely, but some are not fun to pick up.

Some truly rare games sell for a mint. Ultima I, Doom (original), World of Warcraft (original)... but those are all classic games that have tremendously influenced gaming. Other games that are phenomenal. even in the series such as the acclaimed Ultima V - that sells for $100-150 CIB. And those CIB are far more rare than say Zelda, Mario, etc. but they sell for less. Also, with inflation, you actually lose money on used copies of PC games even those that sell for over $100 (unless of course it's one of the really coveted ones). If Ultima came back, and became immensely popular then I'm sure prices would greatly increase, but until then, it will likely be a niche collector's item.

[Tanooki | 4,933]

Oh I know the PC one seems in a way more mature, where the truly rare have a rare fair price, and those that aren't, even if they're well loved, just don't.  It's almost like the so called pc master race has a better grasp on how to value the old things.  I've got a nice shelf (1, not a loaded bookshelf) of old big box pc games, a few are sealed, most are not.)  If they were valued like Nintendo junk from that period is I'd be loaded.

[MiamiSlice | 3,093]

I think there's other factors to the pricing of PC games vs console that are worth considering. 

I think the collectability and pricing of retro games starts with NES. Those are the first ones that crossed over into really valuable and in-demand. Part of the demand for collectors is about nostalgia and the NES has a lot more nostalgic than say, classic PC games.

Also, the media format is a part of that nostalgia. I didn't think much of the floppy disks that classic PC / Mac games came on, they weren't unique... lots of software was distributed that way. But NES cartridges and packaging are unique. Everyone has a certain nostalgic response when they see an NES cartridge, we have cultural memes like about blowing into the cartridge and so on. And when it came to PC games, it was not unusual to pirate them simply by copying the floppy disks or installing using someone else's copy. In some cases you didn't need the media after installing either. So you might have nostalgia for a game that had a physical release, but you never actually owned the physical release and don't really remember it. 

Also, NES fullset collecting buoys demand and there's no such thing as fullset collecting for PC. You might collect an entire series, like every Doom, Duke Nukem, Fallout, Sim City, etc. But you cannot collect every PC game ever released. There's no neat list of 600+ games to track down. 

And when we are comparing PC to console, let's keep in mind that not all console game libraries are equally valuable. Atari games do not command the same level of demand or price that everything from NES and onward do. There's plenty of console libraries, i.e. Intellivision, Odyssey, Vectrex, etc. etc. that are niche and don't bring in the big bucks like the stuff from NES and onward. And I would argue that a lot of the speculation around console games is fueled by NES being the established collectible library and Nintendo being the most hype brand in game collecting. We think of console games from other companies like Sega, Sony, etc. as being valuable and worth collecting now but NES had to go first. The demand started there. 

Lastly, @chuppy44's comment about modern-gen collecting is a fair one. Those of us that collect these games have a bias for physical media and that is part of why there is demand for them. But most gamers in the younger generation (think whatever comes after gen-Z) probably don't give a crap about physical media. They buy digital games and that's fine by them. They might not ever own a physical copy of anything. For them, these console games may as well be laserdiscs or 8-tracks. The market could decline in the future the same way the market for Atari games declined when that audience got old and the rest of us who grew up with NES onward were like "Atari? What's that?" 

But in terms of comparing console to PC, I just think about the Indiebox releases that came out some years ago, which were a real attempt to make something collectible and forced-rare for PC games. They had good titles, distributed in nice consistent collector-focused packaging... games like Hollow Knight, Axiom Verge, Lovers in a Dangerous Spacetime, Steamworld Dig, etc. etc. These are out of print now, obviously, and the Indiebox brand is basically forgotten. Do they command much on eBay? No. They don't. Why? Maybe PC gamers just don't worry much about "game preservation" the way console gamers do. Maybe they are pretty comfortable knowing these games will always be available on Steam or Gog or Abandonware or whatever. Basically what I'm saying is, what Indiebox did was a nice idea but the market of "PC gamers that actually want physical media" was very small. I'm willing to bet most of the people who have those releases are console gamers that also play on PC, not PC gamers that scoff at console gamers. 

That's my $0.02. 

[phart010 | 1,707]

On 5/31/2021 at 10:48 PM, avatar! said:

 

Ok so I need to invest in DOGE, Pokémon and beanie babies. Am I missing anything else?

[AdamW | 713]

Basketball NFTs, man. Sheesh, what rock have you been under?!