Stock Analysis and Trades Thread

[a3quit4s | 4,102]

22 hours ago, jonebone said:

Well I bailed on 380 shares at $29 an hour ago but wondering if I should dump the rest around $35 right now.  As I mentioned, one thing I've learned is that hype knows no bounds.  Predicting a top of something once hype kicks in is impossible.

Bro you are still the GOAT, in July the stock was at $4 and todays ticker is ~$34. Still have no idea how the stock accurately represents GME as a company. I get they are closing stores and hiring new board members; but there is still no guarantee that any of that will help. Series X and PS5 are still desperately short of supply and digital is going to take over. Sure, the deal with Microsoft helps them but the used market is their money maker and it is drying up fast.

You said it though, once the hype train leaves the station she don't slow down. Enjoy those profits and don't forget to set aside 30% for uncle sam.

[jonebone | 1,307]

20 minutes ago, a3quit4s said:

Bro you are still the GOAT, in July the stock was at $4 and todays ticker is ~$34. Still have no idea how the stock accurately represents GME as a company. I get they are closing stores and hiring new board members; but there is still no guarantee that any of that will help. Series X and PS5 are still desperately short of supply and digital is going to take over. Sure, the deal with Microsoft helps them but the used market is their money maker and it is drying up fast.

You said it though, once the hype train leaves the station she don't slow down. Enjoy those profits and don't forget to set aside 30% for uncle sam.

There were plenty of people who made absolutely life changing amounts of money, my gains were much more modest.  Also only have to pay 15% gains since I held for more than a year plus but yeah, it worked out for most part.

Bought some PFE today with some profits, not sure what else I want to buy.  Of JNJ, PFE and MRNA, the main coronavirus vaccine makers, I like the PFE fundamentals and chart the best.  In at $36.xx today and I see 2021 potential in the mid $40s.

I assumed the vaccine would already be priced into the stock, but shockingly it looks like it has plenty of room to run.  4% dividend also hedges against downside risk. 

[DoctorEncore | 3,691]

On 1/14/2021 at 9:49 AM, a3quit4s said:

Bro you are still the GOAT, in July the stock was at $4 and todays ticker is ~$34. Still have no idea how the stock accurately represents GME as a company. I get they are closing stores and hiring new board members; but there is still no guarantee that any of that will help. Series X and PS5 are still desperately short of supply and digital is going to take over. Sure, the deal with Microsoft helps them but the used market is their money maker and it is drying up fast.

You said it though, once the hype train leaves the station she don't slow down. Enjoy those profits and don't forget to set aside 30% for uncle sam.

 

On 1/14/2021 at 10:13 AM, jonebone said:

There were plenty of people who made absolutely life changing amounts of money, my gains were much more modest.  Also only have to pay 15% gains since I held for more than a year plus but yeah, it worked out for most part.

Bought some PFE today with some profits, not sure what else I want to buy.  Of JNJ, PFE and MRNA, the main coronavirus vaccine makers, I like the PFE fundamentals and chart the best.  In at $36.xx today and I see 2021 potential in the mid $40s.

I assumed the vaccine would already be priced into the stock, but shockingly it looks like it has plenty of room to run.  4% dividend also hedges against downside risk. 

Man, the stock market is so weird: https://www.fool.com/amp/investing/2021/01/17/gamestop-stock-surges-100-in-2-days-but-it-wont-la/

(Unnecessary rant about capital gains taxes and income equality behind spoiler tag)

Spoiler

 

As Jone pointed out, capital gains tax is significantly lower than income tax. As such, it is a big driver of worsening income inequality in this country. Billionaires can make billions of dollars in profit on the stock market and have a lower effective tax rate than a someone making 60k a year. Ever hear about executives taking their pay in stocks and options? Well that's why!

It kind of blows my mind that the government doesn't even try to fix this inequality. And then I remember that more than half of all congressional members are millionaires and two out of our last three presidents were a millionaires/billionaires when elected... (Obama is also now a multi-millionaire, although most of his net worth came after leaving office).

Anyways, it's definitely better to make your money on the stock market than to work a normal job. Which is funny because trading stocks produces nothing of value, while regular jobs nearly always produce goods or services of value. America!

 

But to bring it back to GameStop. Great call, Jone. I really thought they were dead in the water and it looks like a lot of recent shorts thought so too. I still see them playing only a minor role in gaming in the future, but they've navigated a rough patch surprisingly well. I don't think they have a long game though. By letting so many Steam competitors get up and running (GOG, Epic, and dozens of other smaller storefronts), I think their window as a truly competitive digital retailer has passed.

Edited January 18, 2021 by DoctorEncore

[ThePhleo | 2,185]

I definitely had my doubts in GameStop, I even thought COVID would bring it to its knees even faster

[captmorgandrinker | 1,649]

3 minutes ago, ThePhleo said:

I definitely had my doubts in GameStop, I even thought COVID would bring it to its knees even faster

All of us did (except for Jone).

I still don't understand what people are seeing that makes them value their stock that high.  I still think they're on the verge of going under in the next couple years, unless some shit like e-Gaming is going to save them somehow.

[Californication | 1,477]

It doesn't make sense for GME to move that high. Their financials have been on a downward trajectory including the most current year over last year. The fact that they have hired new board members means they are willing to pivot is good, but there is no proof of concept.

The only thing I could imagine is that if they are able to cut out a ton of fixed costs through closing locations as they are doing and maintain their revenue streams they will be profitable. Problem is they don't know how much their revenue will drop if they don't have as many physical locations. I think some people think the Covid environment was kind of a test of what the online environment could be like because stores were partially open, but I don't think that really reflects the revenue change they will see if they close stores and this was a bumper year for game purchases and they were still down YoY. 

If there wasn't a Gamestop near me, I wouldn't use them as much. The plus side of going to GameStop is that if they send you a game you are not happy with (which happens all the time) you can drop it off at a physical location and not have to hassle with shipping it back.

[DoctorEncore | 3,691]

22 minutes ago, Californication said:

It doesn't make sense for GME to move that high. Their financials have been on a downward trajectory including the most current year over last year. The fact that they have hired new board members means they are willing to pivot is good, but there is no proof of concept.

The only thing I could imagine is that if they are able to cut out a ton of fixed costs through closing locations as they are doing and maintain their revenue streams they will be profitable. Problem is they don't know how much their revenue will drop if they don't have as many physical locations. I think some people think the Covid environment was kind of a test of what the online environment could be like because stores were partially open, but I don't think that really reflects the revenue change they will see if they close stores and this was a bumper year for game purchases and they were still down YoY. 

If there wasn't a Gamestop near me, I wouldn't use them as much. The plus side of going to GameStop is that if they send you a game you are not happy with (which happens all the time) you can drop it off at a physical location and not have to hassle with shipping it back.

I think initially it was mostly speculation on the introduction of new consoles and the big bump seen in pandemic gaming. The last 10-20% was probably short sellers.

I think their only real advantages over competitors at this point are the sheer number of storefronts and their name recognition (which is fading fast). If a big online competitor wanted to make a splash in retail, they could partner with Gamestop or purchase half of those locations to give buyers immediate release day pickup options. Gamestop gets a cut of the sale and a chance to sell you a shitty subscription while Amazon/Walmart saves by shipping in bulk. Match made in heaven.

But I've been wrong too many times to count. Sold both GM and Tesla early this year because I got sick of GM's floundering price and Musk's media missteps. I can still hear the lost upside taunting me in my dreams. 

Edited January 18, 2021 by DoctorEncore

[Brickman | 3,987]

On 1/8/2021 at 8:14 AM, Shmup said:

Not sure if any of you do international trading but two worth keeping an eye on the ASX are Pilbara Minerals (PLB) & Galaxy Resources (GXY).

Both are lithium miners and it appears lithium may have hit its bottom price and is trending back up.

With the demand for electric cars set to explode in Europe, so they can meet their electric car quotas by 2030, I think these two companies will continue to do well.

Australia exports the most lithium in the world and is one of the top countries with reserves.

Just an update on my Lithium post. I ended up buying 667 GXY @$2.93 and initially 2727 PLS @1.10 and then a further 3840 PLS @1.30 (average price now at $1.22).

I plan to keep these for a year and see how they go. I liked how jonebone provided updates on his GME holdings so I might provide some updates along the way. You can track me either making a stupid mistake or a good pick haha.

Now hopefully Biden will make an announcement soon about EVs and that should hopefully send a further rocket up Lithium's prices.

Holdings:

 

[jonebone | 1,307]

I exited the last of my Gamestop shares around $40 last week but my god it keeps running.  Over $50 now, quite an absurd turnaround.

[RH | 4,905]

54 minutes ago, jonebone said:

I exited the last of my Gamestop shares around $40 last week but my god it keeps running.  Over $50 now, quite an absurd turnaround.

I saw the +10% increase this morning. Ludicrous.

So at what price do we short?

[jonebone | 1,307]

8 minutes ago, RH said:

I saw the +10% increase this morning. Ludicrous.

So at what price do we short?

You don't.  The saying is "the stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."  

[jonebone | 1,307]

11 minutes ago, RH said:

I saw the +10% increase this morning. Ludicrous.

So at what price do we short?

Went above $70 now, another +60% in a day.  Absurd.

[DefaultGen | 5,405]

Is Gamestop bitcoin, what is going on.

[RH | 4,905]

Looking at the charts, it look like the previous, all time high of GME was in 2008 before the market crash, and that was around $64.  I can't zoom in on the current chart I'm looking at, so I can't see the exact price.

So, back in 2008, it was pre-market crash AND people still loved retail.  I know we must also consider inflation, but I really can't help but assume their revenue is down far more than back then.

So yes, @DefaultGen. GME is the new Bitcoin. Actually, I'm annoucning my ICO right now.  GMECoin (GMEC).  GMEC is pegged at the price of GME.  It can only go up.  Much profit! Such wow1

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

2 hours ago, RH said:

 

So at what price do we short?

You don't -- you'll get slaughtered in the squeeze if you can find shares to short in the first place.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

1 hour ago, RH said:

Looking at the charts, it look like the previous, all time high of GME was in 2008 before the market crash, and that was around $64.  I can't zoom in on the current chart I'm looking at, so I can't see the exact price.

 

That isn't a 1:1 comparison, since there have been a number of buyback cycles in the meantime -- that is a share today owns more of the company than a share did back then.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

1 hour ago, DefaultGen said:

Is Gamestop bitcoin, what is going on.

Short squeeze.  If the stock runs high enough, short sellers are required to cover their positions, at any price, to mitigate further damage -- driving the price up further.

Or rather -- that massive jump up to 70 was a margin call on a fund that was short -- triggering a trading halt due to it moving too much too fast for market makers to keep up -- presumably the residual rise is the expectation that this is the first major domino to fall in the squeeze that WSB has been lusting after.

EDIT -- I don't completely understand the distinction, because I don't trade options -- but a lot of the discussion about that big midday pop is related to a "gamma squeeze", rather than a margin call.

Edited January 22, 2021 by arch_8ngel

[DoctorEncore | 3,691]

This is out of control. Kudos to the people who saw this coming because they should be rich at this point.

[RH | 4,905]

32 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

That isn't a 1:1 comparison, since there have been a number of buyback cycles in the meantime -- that is a share today owns more of the company than a share did back then.

Ah, I understand now.  I know splits should have been factored in, but I didn't consider buybacks.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

35 minutes ago, RH said:

Ah, I understand now.  I know splits should have been factored in, but I didn't consider buybacks.

Yeah -- you have to compare the market cap not the share price.

 

EDIT:  

PS -- DeepFuckingValue is still in with 50,000 shares ($3.25M) and 1000 April $12 calls ($5.3M)

Combined with the cash he's farmed out of other GME options sales along the way he is sitting on over $11 MILLION as of this afternoon.  Absolutely wild to watch. He made $3 million TODAY.

(and a reminder -- this dude made these crazy options plays with $50k back in 2019 BEFORE Ryan Cohen bought in -- it is absolutely unreal)

Edited January 22, 2021 by arch_8ngel

[Kguillemette | 1,544]

Holy smokes! I never even bothered to read their earnings report in December, I just expected it to pretty sub-par. Did I miss something that made everyone want to throw their money at GameStop?! 

[DoctorEncore | 3,691]

Here's some more context:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/1/22/22244900/game-stop-stock-halted-trading-volatility

[jonebone | 1,307]

Gamestop over $100 in premarket.  Thinking about playing it today if I get an entry around Friday's prices.  Just be in and out.  Long term this thing has to correct but near term the price action on Friday tells me there are way too many shorts out there and stock still has to go up.

Basically, everyone and their mother hated this stock and thought it was going bankrupt (read some comments in this thread even).  So vast majority were short.  I'd say from the $3 to $10 range most of the casual shorts probably got out.  Yet big money shorts started piling in as this stock reaches new highs.

You see comments in this thread "When do we short?", and that's why you don't.  It's created this do loop of people who thought the stock was way overvalued at $30, $40, $50, etc. and want to play the short side.  Well the answer it is overvalued but there are so many short positions that vastly outnumber the shares being traded.  So it's going to keep running until the volume starts to finally taper off.  You'll even get that mentality today.  "Price is $100?  It's a no brainer to short!" Sure, until it's $150 tomorrow. Volume is way too high now that there will be absolutely monstrous swing trades to be made if you play it right.

Edited January 25, 2021 by jonebone

[tbone3969 | 304]

On 1/22/2021 at 6:27 PM, Kguillemette said:

Holy smokes! I never even bothered to read their earnings report in December, I just expected it to pretty sub-par. Did I miss something that made everyone want to throw their money at GameStop?! 

Yeah what exactly is going on with this company's stock.  Even if they did have a strong 4th quarter this is ridiculous.  Is it purely just a super large "short squeeze"?

[jonebone | 1,307]

27 minutes ago, tbone3969 said:

Yeah what exactly is going on with this company's stock.  Even if they did have a strong 4th quarter this is ridiculous.  Is it purely just a super large "short squeeze"?

Yes, I explained above.  The volume and squeezing is absolutely insane and volume is still picking up each trading day.  It still could run quite aways.  Doubling every day (or losing 50%) is possible until the volume thins out.