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Stock Analysis and Trades Thread


Daniel_Doyce
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I thought we already had one of these that migrated from the NA thread, but maybe I'm remembering one-off potshots at our favorite whipping boy, GME.

I've been holding off so far, but I'm thinking of taking a few big positions this week. Oil stocks are getting hammered and I see a couple of insurance stocks (my industry) that are way undervalued.

Anyone else looking to buy? Terrible time to sell, BTW, but I'm sure you guessed that already.

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Been contemplating buying cruise line calls for June but it’s tough to say how long this Coronavirus epidemic will last and how long recovery will take. 
 

If your in for the long game get in on those cruise stocks cause they are only going to go back up. 

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I've been holding off for a few years, i finally have a bit of money to invest. My gut tells me to put it into a nice and safe stock that pays dividends like at&t. But Im still doing research to make the best choice I can. Everything is down right now! I only have about $500 to invest, most of my $ I am stockpiling as cash for emergencies. 

I'll let you guys know what I finally pull the trigger on.

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I find NerdWallet to generally always give sound advice. They keep a list of the best online brokers, so instead of reinventing the wheel here is the link:

https://www.nerdwallet.com/best/investing/online-brokers-for-stock-trading

edit: just saw Robinhood was on the list, probably stay away from that as it has crashed for all users and a lot of people holding options got stuck with them and lost big. 

Edited by a3quit4s
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2 hours ago, Kguillemette said:

Here's a question for you. Etrade, TD Ameritrade or some other online broker?

Schwab (bought TD Ameritrade) or Fidelity would be my suggestion if you want a full range of investment options.

Vanguard is great if you just want their mutual funds and ETFs.

 

Etrade was bought by Morgan Stanley, so I'd stay away from them, personally, but I just don't like giving any amount of money to the full-service guys, even in a round-about way through a subsidiary.

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29 minutes ago, a3quit4s said:

I find NerdWallet to generally always give sound advice. They keep a list of the best online brokers, so instead of reinventing the wheel here is the link:

https://www.nerdwallet.com/best/investing/online-brokers-for-stock-trading

edit: just saw Robinhood was on the list, probably stay away from that as it has crashed for all users and a lot of people holding options got stuck with them and lost big. 

Stay away from all of those silly app-based groups.

The absolute shit-show that has been Robinhood lately should serve as a stark warning to anyone using any of those places.

If you have enough money to be investing, you have enough money to work with at least one of the 3 big-name discount brokerages (Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard).

 

EDIT: to go along with that, until you have a meaningful amount of money, you probably want to stay away from options-trading anyway, so "getting stuck with options" shouldn't really be a primary concern for the vast majority of investors.

Edited by arch_8ngel
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Most brokerages are have no fees to trade anymore, it's amazing how competitive the stock market traders are.  I use Fidelity personally.

I've had a ton of money in cash for perhaps too long, but have been waiting for buying opportunities.  I think you'll see some decent ones this year.

Other advice is to max out your Roth IRA at $6k a year in a nice diversified mutual funds before considering to put any play money into the market though. 

In terms of GME, I did exit out of some shares to maximize my tax writeoff last year when it touched $6.50 again and still will hold a bunch.  Haven't added to the position in over a year but would probably buy some aggressive call contracts if it ever touches $3.00 again. 

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15 minutes ago, Daniel_Doyce said:

Nabbed some oil company stocks this morning and am giving the cruise lines a close look while I wait for my yearly bonus to be paid out on Friday.

I think everyone is watching those, same thing with parks like SIX (flags) too.  They all seem too attractive but don't want to catch the falling knife.  We're no where near peak coronavirus panic nor ripple effects of oil price wars.  Things are long overdue to get bad. 

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4 hours ago, jonebone said:

I think everyone is watching those, same thing with parks like SIX (flags) too.  They all seem too attractive but don't want to catch the falling knife.  We're no where near peak coronavirus panic nor ripple effects of oil price wars.  Things are long overdue to get bad. 

I think the oil crisis is mostly priced in, and the coronavirus is actually priced much more pessimistically than reality. I'll call this close to a bottom and will be pleasantly surprised and happy to buy more at an even lower price if I'm wrong.

Edited by Daniel_Doyce
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4 hours ago, Daniel_Doyce said:

No complaints with TDAmeritrade over here. Agree that Robinhood shat the bed this week and I'd never use them.

Signed up for TDAmeritrade and bought 20 shares Carnival @ 23.5. Gonna hold until it reaches 40 or I need to access cash. Worst case I'm out $470. I can afford that right now. 

I saw on TD I can start a Roth IRA too, gonna get on that next. I don't have nearly enough to put in the max this year, but every little bit helps. I'd like to hook up with an employer that matches 401k, but that's few and far between in foodservice.

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21 hours ago, Kguillemette said:

I saw on TD I can start a Roth IRA too, gonna get on that next. I don't have nearly enough to put in the max this year, but every little bit helps. I'd like to hook up with an employer that matches 401k, but that's few and far between in foodservice.

You have until April 15th to fund your Roth for 2019, so any money you can stuff into it before that date make sure you allocate to LAST TAX YEAR to take advantage of the extra space, in case you find yourself able to max out 2020 contributions prior to April 15 2021.

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1 hour ago, arch_8ngel said:

You have until April 15th to fund your Roth for 2019, so any money you can stuff into it before that date make sure you allocate to LAST TAX YEAR to take advantage of the extra space, in case you find yourself able to max out 2020 contributions prior to April 15 2021.

Good tip, thanks!

 Not to give everyone my life story, but it has taken almost 10 years, but i am finally no longer paycheck to paycheck. It is a wonderful feeling to be able to have enough money leftover at the end of the year to invest!

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5 hours ago, arch_8ngel said:

Wouldn't be the first time Ford reduced their dividend...

True, but it's been a while since they have and I think that was due to the restructuring after the bailout. And they've even increased it three times since that cut plus 3X special cash dividends. The Ford family earns too much money from those dividends, so they have an incentive to keep it as high as possible. I trust them a lot more than GE, that cut bit me in the ass.

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11 minutes ago, Daniel_Doyce said:

CCL is down more than 50% from a few months ago. Definitely giving it a look. However, there are so many bargains on energy stocks that it's tough to choose which industry to buy into.

There is almost no way they aren't a dividend-trap at this point.

They are going to have a terrible year along with the entire hospitality industry.

But at least hotels are essential for business travel, once that picks back up -- but cruises are a totally unnecessary purchase.

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The cruise industry is going to bleed heavily and dividends will be abandoned entirely.  They have a long way to go to bottoming out.  Also remember that even the best analyst in the world cannot predict or quantify hype / panic.  They'll revise revenue numbers downward and actuals are going to be way worse than they project.

I would look more at stuff like Walmart, Target, Grocery stores, etc.  Those are needs, not wants.  People are emptying their shelves already and online buying will take off even more if we're quarantined. Stuff like the travel industry / cruises / amusement parks will rebound eventually but will also see much worse days ahead before we even think about turning a corner.  

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JB:

I'm waiting for the dividend to be cut. I think a "long way to go" is debatable if you believe in the EMH at all, and I give most analysts little credence. Good look at seekingalpha and you'll see completely different analyses of the same stock.

I already have a substantial portfolio of stocks with less Beta. This is a good time to take on some risk. If I don't get the absolute bottom on some of these stocks, I'll still do pretty well.

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4 hours ago, arch_8ngel said:

There is almost no way they aren't a dividend-trap at this point.

They are going to have a terrible year along with the entire hospitality industry.

But at least hotels are essential for business travel, once that picks back up -- but cruises are a totally unnecessary purchase.

Eh, I don't think this is a GME-type scenario, where the death event is known but the timing is uncertain. Again, a lot of the negative results for the next 2 years have been priced in by the 60-70% decline so far. If CCL cuts their div or gets below 10, I'll seriously consider it.

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