Stock Analysis and Trades Thread

[RH | 4,906]

1 minute ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

Is anyone invested in Bitcoin or crypto in general? Bitcoin seems to be getting even more attention lately after hitting a new ATH.

No, but I use to be heavy in the dev scene from 2010 to about 2016. I'd avoid it in general. It's 99% useless tech and doesn't suit the purpose of why it was created to begin with.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

56 minutes ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

Is anyone invested in Bitcoin or crypto in general? Bitcoin seems to be getting even more attention lately after hitting a new ATH.

Not directly.  I have some ARKK and ARKF that has some coverage of companies that have some more direct investments in the crypto space.  But I've never bothered to go through the motions of actually getting money transferred to an exchange like Coinbase, and even though Paypal offers it now, I don't have as much confidence in how they'll handle the tax reporting (and I don't want it to accidentally trigger a 1099 on my other Paypal usage).

[DefaultGen | 5,405]

My mom's boss is all in on Bitcoin and trying to drag my mom in. Neither are technical or understand Bitcoin they just want to gamble on those gainz. To the moon baby.

Yeah, this is like 2017, lol.

[a3quit4s | 4,102]

I had litecoin for awhile, I think I made $50 on it so I’m a big time trader AMA

[Bearcat-Doug | 5,105]

1 hour ago, arch_8ngel said:

Not directly.  I have some ARKK and ARKF that has some coverage of companies that have some more direct investments in the crypto space.  But I've never bothered to go through the motions of actually getting money transferred to an exchange like Coinbase, and even though Paypal offers it now, I don't have as much confidence in how they'll handle the tax reporting (and I don't want it to accidentally trigger a 1099 on my other Paypal usage).

It was $14,700 when PayPal started offering and it's right at $23k now. I'm not sure if they handle the taxes especially combined with ebay sales.

[Bearcat-Doug | 5,105]

1 hour ago, DefaultGen said:

My mom's boss is all in on Bitcoin and trying to drag my mom in. Neither are technical or understand Bitcoin they just want to gamble on those gainz. To the moon baby.

Yeah, this is like 2017, lol.

I'm up quite a bit, but I'm ready to sell in a second if it looks like 2017 again. 

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

53 minutes ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

It was $14,700 when PayPal started offering and it's right at $23k now. I'm not sure if they handle the taxes especially combined with ebay sales.

Yeah, I just didn't want to risk it (and their total fees on crypto exchange aren't particularly good, anyway).

One of these days I'll get off my ass about getting some money transferred to Coinbase.

Though at the same time, a significant amount of the recent run-up is a handful of institutions making large purchases to get it onto their platforms (I think the Paypal purchase itself greatly exceeded typical monthly liquidity).  For the moment I'm content to own the guys selling the shovels via ARKF/ARKK.

[Bearcat-Doug | 5,105]

3 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

Yeah, I just didn't want to risk it (and their total fees on crypto exchange aren't particularly good, anyway).

One of these days I'll get off my ass about getting some money transferred to Coinbase.

Though at the same time, a significant amount of the recent run-up is a handful of institutions making large purchases to get it onto their platforms (I think the Paypal purchase itself greatly exceeded typical monthly liquidity).  For the moment I'm content to own the guys selling the shovels via ARKF/ARKK.

PayPal isn't charging fees until next year. I'll switch over to Coinbase too at the end of the month.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

3 minutes ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

PayPal isn't charging fees until next year. I'll switch over to Coinbase too at the end of the month.

They didn't appear to be charging fees to BUY crypto -- but my cursory reading was that they did have exit-fees (and there was currently no way to transfer the crypto off of their platform).

[Bearcat-Doug | 5,105]

Just now, arch_8ngel said:

They didn't appear to be charging fees to BUY crypto -- but my cursory reading was that they did have exit-fees (and there was currently no way to transfer the crypto off of their platform).

They haven't been charging to buy or sell, but you can't move it yet.  

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

52 minutes ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

They haven't been charging to buy or sell, but you can't move it yet.  

Good to know -- still leaves me with the unknown of whether a relatively small crypto transaction turns around and screws you by triggering a 1099 on the rest of your paypal activity.

On the one hand, since the rest of your paypal activity is on a 1099-K, I could see why it wouldn't (since crypto would generate a different type of 1099)  But on the other hand -- once you have Paypal generating tax forms for your TIN, it wouldn't surprise me, at all, if their system just went ahead and reported all potentially reportable activity (irrespective of thresholds).

 

As an interesting sidenote, though, since buying/selling on Paypal's platform is using their pre-existing pool of cryptocurrency, I wonder how they're doing their market-making? With actual exchanges, I would have assumed that buy/sell (in-and-out of cash) is with other parties directly on the platform, so the price is set dynamically by actual bid-ask activity on the platform. Is Paypal claiming to be an exchange/market in the same way? Because it looked like it was basically a "market order" (i.e. they state a current price and you just pay it, rather than being able to set a limit price) -- so how are they setting that price?  

Even with the real exchanges, though, there isn't a full suite of options that "market makers' would use with stocks to manage market-order activity (to avoid major spikes) -- seems like something that would be interesting to read up on.

Edited December 19, 2020 by arch_8ngel

[Bearcat-Doug | 5,105]

1 hour ago, arch_8ngel said:

Good to know -- still leaves me with the unknown of whether a relatively small crypto transaction turns around and screws you by triggering a 1099 on the rest of your paypal activity.

On the one hand, since the rest of your paypal activity is on a 1099-K, I could see why it wouldn't (since crypto would generate a different type of 1099)  But on the other hand -- once you have Paypal generating tax forms for your TIN, it wouldn't surprise me, at all, if their system just went ahead and reported all potentially reportable activity (irrespective of thresholds).

 

As an interesting sidenote, though, since buying/selling on Paypal's platform is using their pre-existing pool of cryptocurrency, I wonder how they're doing their market-making? With actual exchanges, I would have assumed that buy/sell (in-and-out of cash) is with other parties directly on the platform, so the price is set dynamically by actual bid-ask activity on the platform. Is Paypal claiming to be an exchange/market in the same way? Because it looked like it was basically a "market order" (i.e. they state a current price and you just pay it, rather than being able to set a limit price) -- so how are they setting that price?  

Even with the real exchanges, though, there isn't a full suite of options that "market makers' would use with stocks to manage market-order activity (to avoid major spikes) -- seems like something that would be interesting to read up on.

I don't know if this will clear it up any, but it's worth a read.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/shehanchandrasekera/2020/10/21/how-taxes-will-complicate-crypto-payments-on-paypal/amp/

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

On 12/18/2020 at 9:05 PM, Bearcat-Doug said:

I don't know if this will clear it up any, but it's worth a read.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/shehanchandrasekera/2020/10/21/how-taxes-will-complicate-crypto-payments-on-paypal/amp/

I know how the taxes work for crypto payments, that isn't really the question.  The question is whether it will end up causing Paypal's tax compliance group to pro-actively generate 1099-K's by virtue of the fact that they're already doing a tax form for your SSN/TIN.

[Bearcat-Doug | 5,105]

2 hours ago, arch_8ngel said:

I know how the taxes work for crypto payments, that isn't really the question.  The question is whether it will end up causing Paypal's tax compliance group to pro-actively generate 1099-K's by virtue of the fact that they're already doing a tax form for your SSN/TIN.

It seems like I read somewhere that it does, but I'd have to find the article again to confirm.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

21 minutes ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

It seems like I read somewhere that it does, but I'd have to find the article again to confirm.

Yeah -- my immediate assumption is that it would, just because it wouldn't surprise me at all if their overall system has a single flag for "generate tax forms - yes/no" without any distinction between 1099-K and the forms you'd get for crypto gains/losses.  

[jonebone | 1,307]

Gamestop back to almost $19 again. Gonna ride it out and see what next year brings, nice to spread it out over multiple tax years if I fully exit the position.  May sell half again and hold rest, time will tell. 

[Kguillemette | 1,544]

8 hours ago, jonebone said:

Gamestop back to almost $19 again. Gonna ride it out and see what next year brings, nice to spread it out over multiple tax years if I fully exit the position.  May sell half again and hold rest, time will tell. 

I admire your balls here. I sold out before the Earnings report expecting a dive. Wish I bought back in on hindsight when it fell to 13. Congrats!

 

Ryan Cohen must be a huge gamer. He is really trying to wake the dead here!

[jonebone | 1,307]

12 hours ago, Kguillemette said:

I admire your balls here. I sold out before the Earnings report expecting a dive. Wish I bought back in on hindsight when it fell to 13. Congrats!

 

Ryan Cohen must be a huge gamer. He is really trying to wake the dead here!

$22 today, go figure.  I held through the lows of $3, been a long ride.  It's crazy because I do feel the stock is overvalued right now, but I also know hype knows no bounds.  I figured it could maybe make mid $20s on hype alone but who even knows anymore...

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

37 minutes ago, jonebone said:

$22 today, go figure.  I held through the lows of $3, been a long ride.  It's crazy because I do feel the stock is overvalued right now, but I also know hype knows no bounds.  I figured it could maybe make mid $20s on hype alone but who even knows anymore...

Yeah... this is pretty wild.

If you haven't browsed over there -- read the history of "Deep Fucking Value" and a few of the other GME whales at WallStreetBets.  That guy has ridding through ups-and-downs in the millions -- it is absolutely insane, and very entertaining to read.

 

I hopped back in for a small amount a couple days ago -- and I just hopped out again after 40% in 2 days. It's been amusing to dabble in a couple of swing trades on this one, but I don't really believe in them long term, so it was a gamble rather than an investment, IMO

  

Edited December 23, 2020 by arch_8ngel

[jonebone | 1,307]

33 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

Yeah... this is pretty wild.

If you haven't browsed over there -- read the history of "Deep Fucking Value" and a few of the other GME whales at WallStreetBets.  That guy has ridding through ups-and-downs in the millions -- it is absolutely insane, and very entertaining to read.

 

I hopped back in for a small amount a couple days ago -- and I just hopped out again after 40% in 2 days. It's been amusing to dabble in a couple of swing trades on this one, but I don't really believe in them long term, so it was a gamble rather than an investment, IMO

  

But you felt more comfortable gambling on a stock you've followed closely for awhile than another one, right?  Glad my adventure brought you some good luck as you would call it. 

[jonebone | 1,307]

My new stock pick for you guys, PZZA, Papa John's.  Started a position today.

Personal Take:

They just rolled out a stuffed crust pizza, and as a pizza fan, I'm excited.  You didn't see this innovation under the prior owner, and we're a couple years removed from his fallout.  Shaq has been on board and it's going to pay dividends at some point.

Also, I remember thinking the same thing with Domino's when they changed their crust in 2017 with the new seasoning.  It went from cardboard to worth eating surprisingly.  Never took a position and that stock has gone bonkers, but market share is back for the taking.  

Will monitor for some more entries but I'm pretty excited about their 2021.  Hoping I can get a couple more entries but for now I took a small position.  Here's to 2021!

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

Papa John's is definitely the best of the quick-takeout pizza chains, in terms of product quality. (granted, I haven't had Pizza Hut in a long while)

In the short term, the biggest problem with Papa John's is that they don't have a drive up window (like Dominos had pre-pandemic)

Evidently they at least added contactless pickup (though the times I've purchased from them in the past few months, I don't think I've seen it prominently advertised when I've ordered carry-out) -- but even back in "normal" times, the drive up window for Domino's is a massive comparative convenience if you have kids in the car.

Shaq is a great businessman, though, with a really good eye for where he wants to be involved.

[DoctorEncore | 3,691]

Ahhh, I miss the days when I used to day trade and do proper research on stocks. I bet big on Amazon and Netflix 10+ years ago and was rewarded handsomely for it. I really do enjoy reading the discussion you guys have here though. Maybe some day I'll dive back in to individual stocks.

That being said, there is some satisfaction in sitting back and letting my 401k and mutual funds do the work for me.

 

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

4 hours ago, DoctorEncore said:

 

That being said, there is some satisfaction in sitting back and letting my 401k and mutual funds do the work for me.

 

Definitely. Unless you end up with a really big win, or are willing to make big bets, the $-per-hour return versus "the market average" is generally pretty poor.

[jonebone | 1,307]

PZZA has been on a tear since I called it out last week.  My first shares were at $83.xx then I bought more at $88.xx after trying the stuffed crust last weekend (it was solid, would buy again).  Wanted to get a bigger position but my buying opportunities may be gone, it's now at $95.

My target on it was $100-$120 easily, maybe it will spike pass $100 and I can get a reentry there.  Time will tell.