jonebone | 1,307 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Edit: Oh shit, AMC is well above $8 now I see. Well yeah, there was no resistance to $7 so that one is going to run. Yikes. Hopefully I can learn from GME and BB and not sell this one too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arch_8ngel | 1,597 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, jonebone said: I dont put a lot of faith into after hours numbers as they are traded so sparsely. But yes if AMC holds $5 its a wide open easy run to $7 just from reading the chart. I wouldn't put faith in after hours carrying from day to day, but I suspect most of us are trading in lot sizes that will probably fill successfully if you attempt to snag a price in the range of after hours activity while that trading is happening. It is all limit-price trading, so unless you fat finger your selling price, it is harmless to try and take advantage of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arch_8ngel | 1,597 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, jonebone said: Edit: Oh shit, AMC is well above $8 now I see. Well yeah, there was no resistance to $7 so that one is going to run. Yikes. Hopefully I can learn from GME and BB and not sell this one too early. Yeah, it shot up to that level after hours and held steady pretty much the entire extended session. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonebone | 1,307 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 (edited) And arch, if you were curious about the AMC pick it was as simple as the stock being near rock bottom on bankruptcy risk. They raised $900M to take that off the table, and there was a ton of short interest there too. Once you got that gap up and the down volume couldn't win, you knew there was a much higher chance of running to $7 than falling to $4. Now panic buying will come there. Edited January 27, 2021 by jonebone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kguillemette | 1,545 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I've been eyeing amc after regal went under as a potential long. When covid blows over(if it ever does) amc will start up up again sans it's biggest rival. It's like buying coke right before pepsi disappears from the market. Huge market share to capitalize on. All they need to do is survive long enough get there, which it looks like they will, and they have a nice little dividend on top of it which hopefully they will begin paying out in the next couple years. Of course, the insanity of gme has changed everything. like seriously, wtf. Ive been trying to avoid FOMO, but man, is it catching up to me on AMC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arch_8ngel | 1,597 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kguillemette said: Ive been trying to avoid FOMO, but man, is it catching up to me on AMC right now. I figure some of the guys that are in the process of making a shitload of money of GME right now are going to shift gears in the next couple of weeks (or some are already in the process). I have no current plans to hold AMC for the recovery unless it's meme falls flat (in which case my bet is small enough that I'll probably ride it out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kguillemette | 1,545 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I feel like I need to throw a couple hundred bucks at amc on principle right now. This is more exciting than betting on the super bowl! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arch_8ngel | 1,597 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, jonebone said: Interesting. I went in about 5k on AMC and bought my first ever call options on it too. Missed the latter part of this comment, earlier. What calls did you buy? And what was the process like? I have enough stocks where I have round lots of 100 that I might consider writing covered calls -- or using options to buy round lots of 100 (is selling puts the one that pays you a premium while you wait to see if the price reaches your buy target? ) I haven't looked into activating options trading, but I would be surprised if I don't meet whatever their requirements are. (not going to mess with apps like the wsb guys -- I'll stick with a real brokerage) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonebone | 1,307 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said: Missed the latter part of this comment, earlier. What calls did you buy? And what was the process like? I have enough stocks where I have round lots of 100 that I might consider writing covered calls -- or using options to buy round lots of 100 (is selling puts the one that pays you a premium while you wait to see if the price reaches your buy target? ) I haven't looked into activating options trading, but I would be surprised if I don't meet whatever their requirements are. (not going to mess with apps like the wsb guys -- I'll stick with a real brokerage) Specifcally was 3 call contracts at a $5 OTM March 19 Strike. I think it was about $600 including the options fees when I bought them as the stock was at $4.80. I'm obviously a novice here but from reading through other stock threads I'm in elsewhere, you typically like to look 40+ days out so the decay value doesn't eat up your returns. I have no idea what they'll be worth tomorrow but they should be significantly in the money with a ton of time left so I imagine it will be a good percentage return on those. Edited January 27, 2021 by jonebone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arch_8ngel | 1,597 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 (edited) 27 minutes ago, jonebone said: Specifcally was 3 call contracts at a $5 OTM March 19 Strike. I think it was about $600 including the options fees when I bought them as the stock was at $4.80. I'm obviously a novice here but from reading through other stock threads I'm in elsewhere, you typically like to look 40+ days out so the decay value doesn't eat up your returns. I have no idea what they'll be worth tomorrow but they should be significantly in the money with a ton of time left so I imagine it will be a good percentage return on those. So 3 call contracts = option for 300 shares with the $600 representing a call price of $2/share? (so your break even is a little less than $7 share price if you held to expiration?) Am I understanding that correctly? I don't really understand the "theta decay" (haven't read much on it) and definitely don't have a sense of what "reasonable" options premiums look like (in terms of thinking about what leverage you're actually taking versus your break-even price) EDIT: and what kind of account are you trading in? I gather from some of the WSB maniacs that it is possible to do this in a Roth. Edited January 27, 2021 by arch_8ngel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonebone | 1,307 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 5 hours ago, arch_8ngel said: So 3 call contracts = option for 300 shares with the $600 representing a call price of $2/share? (so your break even is a little less than $7 share price if you held to expiration?) Am I understanding that correctly? I don't really understand the "theta decay" (haven't read much on it) and definitely don't have a sense of what "reasonable" options premiums look like (in terms of thinking about what leverage you're actually taking versus your break-even price) EDIT: and what kind of account are you trading in? I gather from some of the WSB maniacs that it is possible to do this in a Roth. Not sure of the breakeven specifics but yes I bought the right to own 300 shares at a cost of $5 each for $600. The way options win is by a big move though. That's why the decay is so real. You could buy the Friday option for a stock on Monday and be right about the move (thinking it will go up), but it it moves too slow or doesn't move until the next week. Then you lost. Giving yourself more time preserves the intrinsic value of the option much longer. And I'm playing in a taxable account. My 401k and Roth are just various mutual funds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonebone | 1,307 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GME above $300 and AMC over $11 in premarket, crazy. A legit poster that I've known for a decade on Honda-Tech got into GME with a $44k position about 2 3 weeks ago after reading into WSB and seeing me talk about it there. He's been holding diamond hands the whole time and account went over $1M today. Completely wild... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Californication | 1,477 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Can't believe I missed most od the action. I grabbed a piece at $240 since it got up tp $350 PM. But am going to really wait for the next of my shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arch_8ngel | 1,597 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, jonebone said: GME above $300 and AMC over $11 in premarket, crazy. A legit poster that I've known for a decade on Honda-Tech got into GME with a $44k position about 2 3 weeks ago after reading into WSB and seeing me talk about it there. He's been holding diamond hands the whole time and account went over $1M today. Completely wild... Just sold half of my AMC pre-market for $17.25 after buying yesterday at $4.80... wild. Could accelerate today, who knows...but I'd feel like an idiot for not banking that gain. And went ahead and re-laddered my remaining GME limit sell orders, since the majority of the influence of Elon's tweet probably hasn't happened yet and I don't want to have everything sell on open. (willing to let a couple of shares run the risk of missing the squeeze to see how high it really goes) Edited January 27, 2021 by arch_8ngel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arch_8ngel | 1,597 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 hours ago, jonebone said: Not sure of the breakeven specifics but yes I bought the right to own 300 shares at a cost of $5 each for $600. The way options win is by a big move though. That's why the decay is so real. You could buy the Friday option for a stock on Monday and be right about the move (thinking it will go up), but it it moves too slow or doesn't move until the next week. Then you lost. Giving yourself more time preserves the intrinsic value of the option much longer. And I'm playing in a taxable account. My 401k and Roth are just various mutual funds. Do you have real trading access in your Roth? Personally, that is where I am trying to bank any trading gains, since it completely eliminates the tax consideration of short vs long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arch_8ngel | 1,597 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 23 minutes ago, Californication said: Can't believe I missed most od the action. I grabbed a piece at $240 since it got up tp $350 PM. But am going to really wait for the next of my shots. I'm not willing to buy more at these levels -- but I am willing to space out my remaining sell orders Definitely trying not to be the pig that gets slaughtered... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Californication | 1,477 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Grabbed more at $200. News is saying the twonbigger short positions have been closed, but it doesn't seem realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arch_8ngel | 1,597 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Californication said: Grabbed more at $200. News is saying the twonbigger short positions have been closed, but it doesn't seem realistic. Yeah, I saw that. There was technically enough volume yesterday for them to have covered -- but since we know retail was still piling in, it makes me very skeptical they could have unwound. I think it is much more likely that at least one of those two major short holders is now completely bankrupt and is going to be forcibly liquidated today. And if not today -- by the end of Friday when all monthly calls AND all weekly calls end ITM coupled with quite a few of those positions being able to afford to exercise and get the actual shares rather than needing to resell the option. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Californication | 1,477 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said: Yeah, I saw that. There was technically enough volume yesterday for them to have covered -- but since we know retail was still piling in, it makes me very skeptical they could have unwound. I think it is much more likely that at least one of those two major short holders is now completely bankrupt and is going to be forcibly liquidated today. And if not today -- by the end of Friday when all monthly calls AND all weekly calls end ITM coupled with quite a few of those positions being able to afford to exercise and get the actual shares rather than needing to resell the option. If the option is repaid in a dif. form than stock does that mean GME won't get a price bump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arch_8ngel | 1,597 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Californication said: If the option is repaid in a dif. form than stock does that mean GME won't get a price bump? I don't know -- but that is a question that is definitely going to be answered because this thing is global news now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Californication | 1,477 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said: I don't know -- but that is a question that is definitely going to be answered because this thing is global news now. Now I am getting nervous because part of the leverage was from the fact that their position had been heldnopen for so long. Even if the short interest is up, new shorts aren't equivelant to old shorts. And...I'm green. Edited January 27, 2021 by Californication Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RH | 4,924 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I know GME is small potatoes compared to the whole of the market but here's my question-- when a stock (or potentially stocks) like these see hyper-runaway prices due to cycles of short squeezes, when they collapse, can they bring the whole market down with it? Basically, could that trigger a mass sell off of "everything"? Again, I get the GME, AMC and BB are drops in the bucket against all stocks and other investment options, but I think many of us see that we could have a correction, if not recession, coming at any time. Can GME be the trigger when it collapses, or is that generally not how this works? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonebone | 1,307 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 46 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said: Just sold half of my AMC pre-market for $17.25 after buying yesterday at $4.80... wild. Could accelerate today, who knows...but I'd feel like an idiot for not banking that gain. And went ahead and re-laddered my remaining GME limit sell orders, since the majority of the influence of Elon's tweet probably hasn't happened yet and I don't want to have everything sell on open. (willing to let a couple of shares run the risk of missing the squeeze to see how high it really goes) I'm trying to learn from being out way too early on GME. I'm not selling anything yet, and in fact, looking to buy more. GME run is going to end sooner than later and money will go play elsewhere. AMC volume is already exceeding number of shares available with signifciant short float. Plus, I actually like the company news fundamental (enough injection to stave off bankruptcy), as opposed to something like BB or BBBY that got pushed. Think this one has some real legs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Californication | 1,477 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 (edited) Couldn't hold. I am think my soft baby like hands may not be made for this. Took 11% atleast. Edit: fuck me. Edited January 27, 2021 by Californication Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arch_8ngel | 1,597 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, jonebone said: I'm trying to learn from being out way too early on GME. I'm not selling anything yet, and in fact, looking to buy more. GME run is going to end sooner than later and money will go play elsewhere. AMC volume is already exceeding number of shares available with signifciant short float. Plus, I actually like the company news fundamental (enough injection to stave off bankruptcy), as opposed to something like BB or BBBY that got pushed. Think this one has some real legs... Yeah, had another small slug fill at $18. Had to move my market-hours limits up so they don't fill immediately at open. How high are you expecting AMC to run? Because current prices are way beyond "hopeful recovery story"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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