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Stock Analysis and Trades Thread


Daniel_Doyce

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26 minutes ago, jonebone said:

PZZA has been on a tear since I called it out last week.  My first shares were at $83.xx then I bought more at $88.xx after trying the stuffed crust last weekend (it was solid, would buy again).  Wanted to get a bigger position but my buying opportunities may be gone, it's now at $95.

My target on it was $100-$120 easily, maybe it will spike pass $100 and I can get a reentry there.  Time will tell. 

What do you think about the P/E?

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31 minutes ago, Californication said:

What do you think about the P/E?

I'm not a big fundamental guy.  I just know that within the Pizza to go market, Papa Johns is going to take some market share with the stuffed crust offering.  Maybe it's temporary or maybe its semi-permanent but either way it's going to boost some visibility to the company.

With COVID still lingering around and eating out being obsolete at the moment as well, I just find PZZA to be a very solid low risk play.  I'd be more worried about a total stock market correction that brings down most of everything across the board than a P/E value on this one. 

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Not sure if any of you do international trading but two worth keeping an eye on the ASX are Pilbara Minerals (PLB) & Galaxy Resources (GXY).

Both are lithium miners and it appears lithium may have hit its bottom price and is trending back up.

With the demand for electric cars set to explode in Europe, so they can meet their electric car quotas by 2030, I think these two companies will continue to do well.

Australia exports the most lithium in the world and is one of the top countries with reserves.

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Well I bailed on 380 shares at $29 an hour ago but wondering if I should dump the rest around $35 right now.  As I mentioned, one thing I've learned is that hype knows no bounds.  Predicting a top of something once hype kicks in is impossible.

Edited by jonebone
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1 minute ago, jonebone said:

Well I bailed on 380 shares at $29 an hour ago but wondering if I should dump the rest around $35 right now.  As I mentioned, one thing I've learned is that hype knows no bounds.  Predicting a top of something once hype kicks in is impossible.

Good for you JoneBone.  It finally paid off.

Edited by tbone3969
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12 minutes ago, tbone3969 said:

Good for you JoneBone.  It finally paid off.

I know, 2 years too early.  I exited 250 more shares at $34.50 and only holding 250 now for the final ride.  Can't believe how much it blew up today, almost fully out of my position now. 

Of course I did that with ETSY a few years back, had $10ish shares that I exited around $20 and it was a very small position.  Think that one is around $180 now...

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5 hours ago, jonebone said:

I know, 2 years too early.  I exited 250 more shares at $34.50 and only holding 250 now for the final ride.  Can't believe how much it blew up today, almost fully out of my position now. 

Of course I did that with ETSY a few years back, had $10ish shares that I exited around $20 and it was a very small position.  Think that one is around $180 now...

Well, if this is "the" squeeze, finally come home to roost, probably the time to take profit once and for all before the institutional shorts solidify side deals for larger lots that don't involve them getting completely reamed.

Though I gather a squeeze can go on for a few days as things unwind -- and in the meantime, I'm sure it can get crazier to where you might want to just gamble on trailing stops executing correctly.

 

 

EDIT:  "Deepfuckingvalue" at wallstreetbets posted his update -- dude is up $2MM on the day and has over $1MM worth of calls that expire on the 15th (that he has the cash to exercise).  So if you are still holding on -- you're in good company I guess! 😛

Edited by arch_8ngel
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3 hours ago, tbone3969 said:

I recently sold my position in AMD.  Bought in sub $5.  I think it is a good time as I feel there will be a very large correction in the market soon.  But what do I know?

Wow that’s like a retirement level investment depending on how much you had. Good job holding on all the way to $90 too. Even if there isn’t a correction you’ve already made a fantastic return. 

 

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39 minutes ago, tbone3969 said:

What is your feeling about Crypto now?

This is got to be a long post so to be nice I'm putting in it a spoiler tag.

Spoiler

Well, I'll just give you a bit of personal context and why I was interested in the stuff to begin with, way back before people were "speculating" it.  I found out about bitcoin through techy/nerdy news aggregate site called slashdot.  After seeing a couple articles about it, which I ignored at first, I figured I'd check it out to see what this bitcoin thing was.

When bitcoin was created back in 2008, it was fresh off the heals of the stock market crash that started "the great recession" and the issues we had in the US sent ripples throughout the international markets and made things even worse for Europe than the US.  Bitcoin was created as an experimental attempt to create a "currency" that had it's creation built on top of set mechanical rules and the implementation was intended so that no one person, or persons, could likely control or dictate the propagation of transactions or change the process.  It was considered "experimental" by Satoshi because he knew it wasn't perfect and even back in 2010, when I got into the scene, many of the known potential issues such as 51% attacks were well known. Furthermore, it was also understood that competing groups could fork chains in the future and that could be potentially problematic, and that has happened at least once.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin was a proof of concept that a currency could be created that, theoretically, is not created by governmental fiat.  No government could control the "printing presses" and that currency could be used globally and anonymously.

When I first learned about bitcoin, I had two competing observations--I knew it could change the world of money and finance, but I also knew that bitcoin wasn't the "coin" to do it.  The concept and tech needed to involve.  This is why I got heavily involved in altcoins that were actually doing something different, and not simple forks of bitcoin with some slight modifications to some magic number.

However, as time has gone on I've seen every project move from being an actual reasonable tool for currency to become nothing but a speculative means of investing, with no real world value.  That may sound ironic because many argue that bitcoin, and crypto in general, "has no value".  However, that's not true.  The value of cryptocurrency is intrinsic to both it's purpose and the size of people willing to use it as currency.  For me, the hope was that cryptocurrency would eventually provide a fast, safe, free/mostly free and anonymous way to process monetary transactions locally and globally.

Cryptocurrency might get there one day, but all I ever observed is that even though some of the tech evolved, the only interest that most newcomers had were in speculation.  This meant a lot of money seeped into the ecosystem, and whole bunch of it was scammed or stolen.  Scams abounded a lot, even back in 2010, but the scams have just got bigger and more sophisticated.  People kept "inventing" flashier implementations that didn't really solve any problems that couldn't be solved in some better way, and at the helm of many of those projects were hucksters who could con enough people to buy in.  And to be clear, many of those projects (I even include Ethereum in that bunch) weren't looking for a fast buck.  I think they were just looking for a way to make something speculative that people would keep building on top of, but being a bit greedy they were always blindsided by the fact that their use of "blockchain tech" is often never a good approach to solving the problems they are built to fix.

So, for me, 90% of all crypto is built as a speculative platform with no other purpose than speculation.  It's a circular purpose, but it provides no real world value.  The fact that bitcoin breached $30k a coin shows that people don't care about the tech.  Me, and many others, were the ones calling out how crappy the coin was and their were many ways to improve it, but even in 2010, so many people were invested in mining, people wouldn't listen.  I'd argue Satoshi knew it, and wanted to just get the idea out there.  Regardless, it's bloated chain is still out their and is king of the hill.  It's not because it's usable tech.  It's because investors keep pumping money into the ponzi scheme that it's become, and with probably trillions of more dollars that could go into it, it could have a long way to go before it's final collapse.

I know this is a long post.  I'm not really mad, but I am a bit disenfranchised.  In the early days, I was a bit starry-eyed and hopeful that our small community (of probably only a few thousand, and less than 100 developers working on other cryptos) were making something that would break the grip of governments hold on currency.  Well, crypto morphed away from that, and I'm not interested in what it is today.  I fully admit I speculated and bought and sold coins from about 2010 to 2016, but I only chased tech that I thought was moving the direction I wanted to be a part of, and I always jumped head-first in as a developer trying to fix potential exploits or theorize improvements to make the process run more safely and smoothly.  But that's not what crypto is, and when I saw that as a fact, I just got out.  The rat race, the endless scams, the death of really good coins because they were no longer "cool".  Yeah, that wasn't what I was about and, in the end, the whole thing lost it's purpose.

 

Edited by RH
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11 minutes ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

I kinda wish I took some Bitcoin profits at $42K, but I bought the dip to $30k instead. The support at $32K seems to be there, so I'll keep riding it out. 

I don't even pay attention much now.  It got up to $42k?! Seriously people, why? Why is bitcoin worth $42k other than the fact that people keep dumping money in it?!

This is why it's a ponzi scheme.  Everyone buying in today is just hoping that tomorrow someone else will buy in at a higher price tomorrow.

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13 minutes ago, RH said:

Nevertheless, Bitcoin was a proof of concept that a currency could be created that, theoretically, is not created by governmental fiat.  No government could control the "printing presses" and that currency could be used globally and anonymously.

 

I feel like the part in bold is a misrepresented feature of cryptocurrencies - at least, at my understanding of how nodes and the computer power works - since governments (USA / Russia / China) are who is capable of tooling up and taking over any "coin" they want by getting the majority computing power stake.  (i.e. they could execute a sort of hostile takeover of the ledger)

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13 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

I feel like the part in bold is a misrepresented feature of cryptocurrencies - at least, at my understanding of how nodes and the computer power works - since governments (USA / Russia / China) are who is capable of tooling up and taking over any "coin" they want by getting the majority computing power stake.  (i.e. they could execute a sort of hostile takeover of the ledger)

Yes, that's basically a 51% attack.  Again, we were aware of that possibility back in 2010, and I'm sure the community was aware of it even before then.  This is one of a few major reasons why Satoshi only considered bitcoin an experimental proof of concept.

Regardless, even if no better approach solved that specific problem, cryptos are always free to use and free to abandon.  One of the original, speculated safe guards of the 51% attack is that if anyone (or country, organization, whatever) had the capability to own 51% of the network, why would they do that and destroy it's value.  Everyone knows that's a major problem so it's a problem that was always avoided and the feelings of the early adopters was that in such a case, the coin would be either abandoned or people would take "desperate measures" to fix nefarious behavior.

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33 minutes ago, RH said:

One of the original, speculated safe guards of the 51% attack is that if anyone (or country, organization, whatever) had the capability to own 51% of the network, why would they do that and destroy it's value.  Everyone knows that's a major problem so it's a problem that was always avoided and the feelings of the early adopters was that in such a case, the coin would be either abandoned or people would take "desperate measures" to fix nefarious behavior.

That seems like an incredibly naive view... the moment it is beneficial to them to do so, China could almost certainly allocate the computing resources to burn the whole thing to the ground. Russia potentially could, as well.  The USA, while it could do the same, is almost certainly content, for the moment, to just have the tax revenue and to have an easy way to trace funding for illegal activities they want to prosecute.

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1 hour ago, RH said:

I don't even pay attention much now.  It got up to $42k?! Seriously people, why? Why is bitcoin worth $42k other than the fact that people keep dumping money in it?!

This is why it's a ponzi scheme.  Everyone buying in today is just hoping that tomorrow someone else will buy in at a higher price tomorrow.

It went from $21k to $42k in three weeks. It pulled back to $30k and now it's back to $37k. I've never seen anything like it honestly. I'm on the right side of it, so I hope it keeps going.

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12 hours ago, ThePhleo said:

There goes half the comic collectors from the hobby then. >_> here's hoping for a flash crash.

Probably not the term for what you intend -- a "flash crash" is a sudden momentary drop and then more-or-less back-to-normal caused by someone placing a too-large order in a way that market makers can't smooth out.  (i.e. a whale fat-fingers a huge sell order as a market order and it works its way DEEP into the buy-order book)

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