Heritage Auctions Thread

[Hammerfestus | 3,846]

6 minutes ago, Rhapsody98 said:

You have to segregate them, or they'll cause the rest of your collection to lose value.  /s

Whoa whoa whoa.  Not cool dude.   

Edited August 31, 2021 by Hammerfestus

[AdamW | 713]

2 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

Christ are you STILL defending Wata/HA? 

Er. What? I summarized the article because Hammerfestus asked. Is that not an accurate summary? It's not a defence nor intended as one. It has no commentary whatever. You can find my commentary on it in my reply to Karl above.

Edited August 31, 2021 by AdamW

[Crystalis88 | 30]

3 minutes ago, AdamW said:

Er. What? I summarized the article because Hammerfestus asked. Is that not an accurate summary? It's not a defence nor intended as one. It has no commentary whatever. You can find my commentary on it in my reply to Karl above.

yea im not sure how he interprets that as a defense of wata lol

[Alder | 243]

7 minutes ago, AdamW said:

Er. What? I summarized the article because Hammerfestus asked. Is that not an accurate summary? It's not a defence nor intended as one. It has no commentary whatever. You can find my commentary on it in my reply to Karl above.

Even in your reply to Karl, I read it more as "yikes, but here's how they might weasel out of it" 

[AdamW | 713]

2 minutes ago, Alder said:

Even in your reply to Karl, I read it more as "yikes, but here's how they might weasel out of it" 

that was about the shape of it, yeah.

[WarMech | 82]

Do we want to take bets on how this impacts their October auction, if at all? There's a very good chance some people just won't care about any of this controversy or will forget as by and large people tend to have the atten - ICE CREAM TRUCK!

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

4 minutes ago, WarMech said:

Do we want to take bets on how this impacts their October auction, if at all? There's a very good chance some people just won't care about any of this controversy or will forget as by and large people tend to have the atten - ICE CREAM TRUCK!

I don’t think it will impact much but who knows. It might impact higher end. 

[a3quit4s | 4,099]

2 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

I don’t think it will impact much but who knows. It might impact higher end. 

Until it’s picked up by much larger media outlets, law enforcement steps in, or the FTC launches a public investigation it will all just go unnoticed and it will be business as usual. 

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

19 minutes ago, AdamW said:

that was about the shape of it, yeah.

My apologies. I misread several posts. 

[AdamW | 713]

I think in terms of a big sudden impact, @a3quit4sis right - it'd take something like that, which would probably scare enough 'serious investors' and fractional sites that prices might take a sudden dramatic dive.

Outside of that, what I think might happen might not be so much a clear and obvious bubble pop event, but more maybe a more modest correction from some of the crazier prices combined with a move away from HA and WATA. I think some people who aren't super bought into WATA are already considering VGA for grading some things they might otherwise have sent to WATA, some people will definitely be hoping CGC comes in with a good product, and the stuff about HA has to help certifiedlink, comicconnect, and goldin (though if people make the WATA-CU-Goldin connection it could hurt Goldin too).

[Crystalis88 | 30]

9 minutes ago, a3quit4s said:

Until it’s picked up by much larger media outlets, law enforcement steps in, or the FTC launches a public investigation it will all just go unnoticed and it will be business as usual. 

Do you think the Mario 64’s at Goldin auctions will be propped up beyond 1.5 mil? With this type of market all it takes is one high profile sale to underperform expectations to cause an avalanche. 

[AdamW | 713]

1 minute ago, Crystalis88 said:

Do you think the Mario 64’s at Goldin auctions will be propped up beyond 1.5 mil? With this type of market all it takes is one high profile sale to underperform expectations to cause an avalanche. 

I think quite a few people were already predicting the 9.8/A++ would come in under $1.5m even before we knew there was a VGA 95 in the same auction But if it comes in a long way under - like, say, less than half - that could be a big deal for sure. It's currently at $120k, btw.

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

19 minutes ago, Crystalis88 said:

Do you think the Mario 64’s at Goldin auctions will be propped up beyond 1.5 mil? With this type of market all it takes is one high profile sale to underperform expectations to cause an avalanche. 

Actually I think the investors and manipulators are going to want to protect their investments and bid up the current Goldin auctions and then the next HA sales. What better way to try and squash than high prices? After that, I think you will see the effects because you can only pass the hot potato around for so long. 

[Hammerfestus | 3,846]

There sure does seem to be a lot of emotions on this topic.  I’m sorry but I have a bit of a hard time understanding that as I can’t help but just see this all as some sideshow.  I mean it’s sealed stuff.  That was never like 9some % of us.  Kind of feel sorry for the sealed collectors (the ones buying anyways) but not really.  This all certainly is shady as hell and if it rises to the level of breaking the law there certainly should be repercussions.  But personally to me this is just watching reality tv.   

[a3quit4s | 4,099]

1 hour ago, Crystalis88 said:

Do you think the Mario 64’s at Goldin auctions will be propped up beyond 1.5 mil? With this type of market all it takes is one high profile sale to underperform expectations to cause an avalanche. 

It’s hard to think that that price is sustainable given there are more of them floating around but what has gone on with sealed games recently we should throw all logic to the wind. 
 

1 hour ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

Actually I think the investors and manipulators are going to want to protect their investments and bid up the current Goldin auctions and then the next HA sales. What better way to try and squash than high prices? After that, I think you will see the effects because you can only pass the hot potato around for so long. 

Unless they have already decided that $1.5 was the peak and now we see the collapse in the next auctions. But that is also a catch 22 for the people who believe the $1.5 mil sale was not on the up and up. Maybe the real goal is not get people to believe that a game is worth $1.5 mil but $200k-$300k is still a ton of money for a game that may not really be that rare. 

Edited August 31, 2021 by a3quit4s

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

.

Edited August 31, 2021 by WalterWhiteJr.

[JamesRobot | 5,800]

3 hours ago, WarMech said:

Do we want to take bets on how this impacts their October auction, if at all? There's a very good chance some people just won't care about any of this controversy or will forget as by and large people tend to have the atten - ICE CREAM TRUCK!

What flavor did you get?  I got a Sonic pop.

[Hammerfestus | 3,846]

11 minutes ago, JamesRobot said:

What flavor did you get?  I got a Sonic pop.

I need a jealous emoji

[darkchylde28 | 1,546]

5 hours ago, spacepup said:

I'm not saying he's wrong about all the allegations, but these reports seem almost written intentionally to be as dramatic as possible.

That's pretty much exactly what's going on.  From the bit at the top of his site, right above the article, it sounds like he's doing all that he can to get a bunch of regular subscribers to the site so that he can actually turn a profit for all of his efforts.  While that isn't normally something to scoff at, there really isn't any honor in fluffing up pieces unnecessarily just to make them look bigger, or more impressive--ask any English teacher when it comes time for folks to hand in reports and research papers.  I think creating such long, meandering diatribes really just serves to shoot himself in the foot more than it helps in any way, shape, or form.

5 hours ago, BriGuy82 said:

Yes these articles are hard to read. I feel like I'm reading an old time news bulletin!

Hey!  Old time news bulletins got straight to the point, lol!  The 12 minute estimated reading time of this piece would pretty much cover several entire pages of any newspaper, which is kind of ridiculous for a single article, or even a magazine story.

3 hours ago, Hammerfestus said:

Im gonna be honest.  That shit was too long.  Did not read.  I’ll just let you fine upstanding citizens do the work for me.

Yeah, I have to admit that I haven't read it yet myself.  I scanned the headline, read the few lines about how he wants everybody's money as a subscriber, saw "12 minute estimated reading time" and decided I'd rather read this thread and maybe circle back later, based on my experience with the last article of his that was linked here.

2 hours ago, Hammerfestus said:

There sure does seem to be a lot of emotions on this topic.  I’m sorry but I have a bit of a hard time understanding that as I can’t help but just see this all as some sideshow.  I mean it’s sealed stuff.  That was never like 9some % of us.  Kind of feel sorry for the sealed collectors (the ones buying anyways) but not really.  This all certainly is shady as hell and if it rises to the level of breaking the law there certainly should be repercussions.  But personally to me this is just watching reality tv.   

The larger issue is that this isn't just restricted to the sealed or slabbed market.  Sure, on the surface, that's all that's going on here.  However, it's causing everyone who has anything to do with the video game hobby--collecting, trading, reselling--going absolutely bonkers with prices.  Some folks want to say and act like it's due to some huge influx of new interest in the hobby, but all the people I can find newly flooding in right now are people hoping to discover and flip the next $1M version of a normally common video game.  Sure, people who have been in the hobby for a long time and those at the top of this bubble are aware of why the copies of SMB that sold were special, but all the new blood, and anybody who really only occasionally played or resold games before this sure don't.  And they don't care to learn.  All they hear is "Super Mario Bros went for $100K, then $2M!  I'm gonna be RICH!!!"  This sort of blatant market manipulation hurts everybody in the hobby, regardless of system, regardless of how you collect (slabbed, sealed, CIB, loose, etc.).  Basically the only people not suffering too badly right now are people who are digital only, either legitimately buying non-physical copies of games or getting their hands on ROMs/ISOs to have their fun with.

[Hammerfestus | 3,846]

2 minutes ago, darkchylde28 said:

That's pretty much exactly what's going on.  From the bit at the top of his site, right above the article, it sounds like he's doing all that he can to get a bunch of regular subscribers to the site so that he can actually turn a profit for all of his efforts.  While that isn't normally something to scoff at, there really isn't any honor in fluffing up pieces unnecessarily just to make them look bigger, or more impressive--ask any English teacher when it comes time for folks to hand in reports and research papers.  I think creating such long, meandering diatribes really just serves to shoot himself in the foot more than it helps in any way, shape, or form.

Hey!  Old time news bulletins got straight to the point, lol!  The 12 minute estimated reading time of this piece would pretty much cover several entire pages of any newspaper, which is kind of ridiculous for a single article, or even a magazine story.

Yeah, I have to admit that I haven't read it yet myself.  I scanned the headline, read the few lines about how he wants everybody's money as a subscriber, saw "12 minute estimated reading time" and decided I'd rather read this thread and maybe circle back later, based on my experience with the last article of his that was linked here.

The larger issue is that this isn't just restricted to the sealed or slabbed market.  Sure, on the surface, that's all that's going on here.  However, it's causing everyone who has anything to do with the video game hobby--collecting, trading, reselling--going absolutely bonkers with prices.  Some folks want to say and act like it's due to some huge influx of new interest in the hobby, but all the people I can find newly flooding in right now are people hoping to discover and flip the next $1M version of a normally common video game.  Sure, people who have been in the hobby for a long time and those at the top of this bubble are aware of why the copies of SMB that sold were special, but all the new blood, and anybody who really only occasionally played or resold games before this sure don't.  And they don't care to learn.  All they hear is "Super Mario Bros went for $100K, then $2M!  I'm gonna be RICH!!!"  This sort of blatant market manipulation hurts everybody in the hobby, regardless of system, regardless of how you collect (slabbed, sealed, CIB, loose, etc.).  Basically the only people not suffering too badly right now are people who are digital only, either legitimately buying non-physical copies of games or getting their hands on ROMs/ISOs to have their fun with.

Do we actually know that the sealed speculators have anything to do with rising CIB prices.  I mean I collect almost exclusively NES CIB and I haven’t seen any crazy spike that I could reliably attribute to bleed over from this mania.  The covid spike is very clear and accelerated what was already the ever increasing price of retro games.  It’s not like we weren’t already on a path to stupid game prices since forever.  I doubt anyone could point to anything other than maybe a bit of an increase in the rate of growth outside of hyperbole.  I’m sure the influence is there but my CIB copy of whatever game isn’t suddenly worth bonkers money because of this.

[AdamW | 713]

I just don't see the evidence for that. 99% of game prices are not doing anything particularly bonkers. When I just want to buy some random game for some random system it usually turns out to cost...not very much. I saw Sonic Colors for DS on GDQ and it looked fun so I thought I'd buy a copy. It was 20 bucks. Yesterday I for some reason figured I'd kinda like a copy of Horizon: Zero Dawn. That's 15 bucks brand new sealed for the complete edition with all DLC. You want to play Super Mario Bros. on the NES? You can still get an SMB/Duck Hunt cart for five bucks off fifteen different local listings, guaranteed.

I just haven't seen any solid evidence that the HA/WATA crap is affecting anything beyond high-end sealed games (and some other specific sealed not-yet-high-end games/franchises) much if at all. I don't think new people are coming into the market buying up CIBs at stupid prices thinking they'll get rich. I do see some of the new people on Discord and Reddit and stuff. None of the ones who are trying to speculate are buying CIBs. Most of them are buying sealed Gen 7+ stuff, but only particular franchises they reckon are going to be the next Mario or whatever.

Edited August 31, 2021 by AdamW

[Jeevan | 8,911]

4 hours ago, Hammerfestus said:

Do we actually know that the sealed speculators have anything to do with rising CIB prices.  I mean I collect almost exclusively NES CIB and I haven’t seen any crazy spike that I could reliably attribute to bleed over from this mania.  The covid spike is very clear and accelerated what was already the ever increasing price of retro games.  It’s not like we weren’t already on a path to stupid game prices since forever.  I doubt anyone could point to anything other than maybe a bit of an increase in the rate of growth outside of hyperbole.  I’m sure the influence is there but my CIB copy of whatever game isn’t suddenly worth bonkers money because of this.

WATA is responsible as back before covid I tried to buy an smrpg cib.  someone contacted me and said they would sale, but over the price I felt comfortable buying at.  They ultimately said they would just get it slabbed and sell it......WATA is bad for EVERY aspect of collecting

[darkchylde28 | 1,546]

Just now, Hammerfestus said:

Do we actually know that the sealed speculators have anything to do with rising CIB prices.  I mean I collect almost exclusively NES CIB and I haven’t seen any crazy spike that I could reliably attribute to bleed over from this mania.  The covid spike is very clear and accelerated what was already the ever increasing price of retro games.  It’s not like we weren’t already on a path to stupid game prices since forever.  I doubt anyone could point to anything other than maybe a bit of an increase in the rate of growth outside of hyperbole.  I’m sure the influence is there but my CIB copy of whatever game isn’t suddenly worth bonkers money because of this.

I see it again and again and again locally, and have talked to plenty of others who see the same thing.  Idiot sees poorly vetted and understood (by the media outlet) headline stating, "SUPER MARIO 64 SELLS FOR $1.56 MILLION!"  Idiot immediately determines that Super Mario 64 is rare, absolutely top shelf desirable by everybody, and immediately marks up his prices.  All the neighboring idiots at the flea market do similar markups, because even if they don't believe the hype, "the market has spoken."  Just like when one gas station spikes its gas prices and all the others do the same thing.

The vast majority of people peddling video games outside of the very niche market that's been making headlines of late rarely have two brain cells to rub together in regard to what's actually happening to cause the headlines they're seeing.  All they know is that hey, people are going crazy "on that there internet" about how suddenly valuable a particular game is, which translates immediately into ALL versions and copies of that game must therefore be suddenly more valuable than they were 5 minutes prior.  The idiots then play the telephone game talking to one another about this phenomena, which causes "gem mint sealed Super Mario 64 goes for record price," already misunderstood, to warp its way into, "all N64 games must be valuable," which on down the line ends up being "old video games must be valuable because somebody paid over $1M for a cartridge."

People always claim "oh, this isn't affecting prices" until the first $400 beat to shit Mario 64 cart actually makes a sale online, then the second one, then it all snowballs because, HEY!  There's a precedent for that sort of price, so it MUST be true!  The bubble has expanded across the hobby, and everything is ballooning as a result of it.  Remember how lack of faith in shitty third party Atari 2600 cartridges caused the entire video game industry to collapse?  Even for the companies who always released quality product?  Doesn't matter how true something is once enough idiots repeat it to each other and start believing it.

[Jeevan | 8,911]

3 minutes ago, AdamW said:

just haven't seen any solid evidence that the HA/WATA crap is affecting anything beyond high-end sealed games much if at all. I

See above post

[AdamW | 713]

@darkchylde28but unless any of them actually sells a game at those prices, they'll pretty quickly wind them back down again, assuming they actually want to make any revenue.

I don't go to flea markets, so I dunno about that. I'm going off what I see on eBay and craigslist and Canadian hobby shops, mostly. SM64 carts are selling for $30 on eBay.