Stock Analysis and Trades Thread

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

53 minutes ago, Californication said:

I searched and didn't see that. I thought it was because of the earnings miss. I took a nice hit on this.

I didn't see this story pop up until later -- pre-market, I definitely only saw the earnings miss -- but it was a "small" miss, IMO, so no way it was going to have been the only factor on a huge drop.

[jonebone | 1,307]

AMC party continuing, still holding a bunch of shares!

[Andy_Bogomil | 815]

9 hours ago, jonebone said:

AMC party continuing, still holding a bunch of shares!

Bought a few this afternoon for shits in case we see something similar to what happened with GME a few months back. I honestly am just following the hype and have done no formal research on what to expect. Not too much so if the bottom falls out in the next few days I could care less really.

I bought a few more Cineplex stock here in Canada as the 'entertainment' stocks seem to be trending upwards with the talk of restriction easing and vaccine rollout. Scoping around for a few more that might be easy pickings.

[Gloves | 11,776]

Similarly, Cineplex is up here in Canada! 

[jonebone | 1,307]

Looks like I may get called out of my AMC shares finally after all.  Sold covered calls on my entire position at $22 strikes yesterday that will expire next Friday.  Basically into the shares for free at this point but man I have a bad feeling this thing is going to go completely parabolic like GME.

You can tell with 400M some shares outstanding and 300M shares being traded daily the past couple of days that all of the longs (like me) are caving and profit taking.  Yet it is still accelerating so it looks like people are locking up those shares to force a short squeeze and taking the lid off this thing.  I really thought $20 would provide some overhead resistance but since it didn't it could get really nutty.

Edited May 27, 2021 by jonebone

[doner24 | 1,195]

17 minutes ago, jonebone said:

Looks like I may get called out of my AMC shares finally after all.  Sold covered calls on my entire position at $22 strikes yesterday that will expire next Friday.  Basically into the shares for free at this point but man I have a bad feeling this thing is going to go completely parabolic like GME.

You can tell with 400M some shares outstanding and 300M shares being traded daily the past couple of days that all of the longs (like me) are caving and profit taking.  Yet it is still accelerating so it looks like people are locking up those shares to force a short squeeze and taking the lid off this thing.  I really thought $20 would provide some overhead resistance but since it didn't it could get really nutty.

I cashed in a bunch earlier this year when it hit 19, but kept 750 shares and forgot about them. Pleasant to look at today and hope it pulls a GME!

[RH | 4,903]

I'm going to throw out this analysis to see what you guys think.  I'll try to be brief but since many of you guys have much more experience with stock trading, here me out and let me know your thoughts.

I think Coinbase is the newest, best long term hold in tech in a very long time and even if it take another major dip, it is 100% worth getting into for a long hold.  Here's my reasoning.

One of the things that I have noticed when looking at industry is there is one type of business which always makes money hand over fist.  Put simply, it's controlling markets.  Go back in history and you will see that the known, wealthiest people of all time have either been merchants that captured specific trade routes for goods that were highly desirable in their home region OR they were rulers who captured the marketplaces of trade routes and setup shop buying/selling/taxing in the middle of it all.

Fast forward to today in our modern era, and look at people like Bezos.  He grew Amazon by rolling debt year over year, while growing Amazon into the Juggernaut that it is today.  He has been the richest man in the world because he controlled much of the online marketplace for buying and selling new (and now used) items.

Then there is Apple.   They took a huge dive in value when Jobs left.  He came back and under his leadership, Apple created the iPod.  This was a tremendous and huge step in digging the flailing company out of the whole they were in.  Though the device was "neat" and worth buying, it was really iTunes, a marketplace, that allowed them to rake in profits.  Jobs was brilliant and parlayed that synergy into an iPhone which had an app store.  He created an Apple marketplace by using draconian rules for distributing and selling apps.  Pairing that with a fan base that would buy anything with an Apple logo on it, Jobs was able to turn Apple into the biggest company that has ever existed!

So how does this relate to Coinbase?   Coinbase is at it's start for public company.  Does crypto have places to go from here at this point in time?  I think it does.  There's still a lot of speculation going on in the cryptocurrency world and real, practical tech is minimal compared to the whole of the ecosystem filled with pointless, speculative coins.  There are many wild spikes to come, both up an down, for new and existing crypto.  However, BOTH scenarios are valuable to Coinbase since it is an exchange.  You buy crypto from them, they profit.  You sell crypto, they profit.  Use there trade platform?  More profit on trading fees!

Coinbase has a well established platform and are undoubtedly sitting on huge coffers of cryptocurrency.  Paired with the fact that they have a major coin-for-coin trading platform where more profits can be taken, Coinbase "owns the books" and is poised to make money so long as there is any market movement that's good or bad.

I have no clue what the next 10, 20 or 50 years of crypto are going to look like but I have strong feeling it's not going anywhere.  Regardless of news out of China of them shutting down all services or similarly negative news.  Coinbase is king of the cryptocurrency exchange "hill" and they have been there since the fall of MtGox.  Unless it comes out they have been doing shady business since the inception of their public offering, or hackers manage to break in and steal all of their crypto keys, I don't see how Coinbase could be anything but a safe bet, so long as there is significant market interest in cryptocurrencies.   As the cryptocurrency market grows, so will Coinbase's revenue and profits and with smart business moves, they can capture more and more of the business market, making themselves into more of an exchange monopoly.

I left the crypto market years ago because it took a direction that I wasn't interested in and I was tired of all the baggage and drama.  Regardless, it's not going anywhere and when Coinbase, of all companies, decided to go public it was a no-brainer to invest in them with a long position because it controls much of the market of buying, selling and trading crypto in the US.  Market owners always make money.  A LOT of money and their shareholders are the ones that stand the best chance to benefit.

[jonebone | 1,307]

AMC moonshot today.  Selling too early at $22 on this Friday when I'll be called out, oh well.  I did learn from selling too early on GME though, as I learned to sell covered calls the entire time and make passive profits along the way.  

My favorite stock at the moment is ABNB, not trying to replicate GME / AMC insanity but that one has an easy valuation in the $180-$200 range with plenty of upside.  Will add heavily if I get another chance around $140 but not going to chase it on the run up.  That one just screams undervalued right now though.

[doner24 | 1,195]

10 minutes ago, jonebone said:

AMC moonshot today.  Selling too early at $22 on this Friday when I'll be called out, oh well.  I did learn from selling too early on GME though, as I learned to sell covered calls the entire time and make passive profits along the way.  

My favorite stock at the moment is ABNB, not trying to replicate GME / AMC insanity but that one has an easy valuation in the $180-$200 range with plenty of upside.  Will add heavily if I get another chance around $140 but not going to chase it on the run up.  That one just screams undervalued right now though.

Been a fun day today! I sold enough earlier this year to make what I have left pure profit, so I’m riding this until 100’s!

[RH | 4,903]

24 minutes ago, jonebone said:

My favorite stock at the moment is ABNB, not trying to replicate GME / AMC insanity but that one has an easy valuation in the $180-$200 range with plenty of upside.  Will add heavily if I get another chance around $140 but not going to chase it on the run up.  That one just screams undervalued right now though.

How far do you think it can go?  Much like Zoom, I feel like this is a pretty solid company but IMHO, the market cap looks way overvalued at close to 100B.

[jonebone | 1,307]

10 minutes ago, RH said:

How far do you think it can go?  Much like Zoom, I feel like this is a pretty solid company but IMHO, the market cap looks way overvalued at close to 100B.

This isn't a fundamental drive.  No one is buying AMC at these levels as a long term hold.  This is all technicals and short squeezing.  It's parabolic and guessing the top is impossible.  It will look a lot like the GME spike when done in terms of how the chart looks.

[RH | 4,903]

1 minute ago, jonebone said:

This isn't a fundamental drive.  No one is buying AMC at these levels as a long term hold.  This is all technicals and short squeezing.  It's parabolic and guessing the top is impossible.  It will look a lot like the GME spike when done in terms of how the chart looks.

I was talking about ABNB. How much room for growth do you think it has?

[RH | 4,903]

Trading appears to be halted on AMC.  This ought to be fun to watch.  GME aaaaaall over again.

[jonebone | 1,307]

10 minutes ago, RH said:

I was talking about ABNB. How much room for growth do you think it has?

Tons, can't predict a price.  I see it as fair value in the $180-$200 range today, who knows about tomorrow.  I wanted to see if the $130 low from 2020 would hold up as support and it did.  With post-Covid travel opening back up I like that as a buy and hold play. 

[doner24 | 1,195]

21 minutes ago, jonebone said:

This isn't a fundamental drive.  No one is buying AMC at these levels as a long term hold.  This is all technicals and short squeezing.  It's parabolic and guessing the top is impossible.  It will look a lot like the GME spike when done in terms of how the chart looks.

What do you mean, free popcorn for shareholders!

[Andy_Bogomil | 815]

I wish I put more on AMC. 

[DoctorEncore | 3,691]

8 hours ago, jonebone said:

AMC moonshot today.  Selling too early at $22 on this Friday when I'll be called out, oh well.  I did learn from selling too early on GME though, as I learned to sell covered calls the entire time and make passive profits along the way.  

My favorite stock at the moment is ABNB, not trying to replicate GME / AMC insanity but that one has an easy valuation in the $180-$200 range with plenty of upside.  Will add heavily if I get another chance around $140 but not going to chase it on the run up.  That one just screams undervalued right now though.

 

7 hours ago, RH said:

I was talking about ABNB. How much room for growth do you think it has?

I had ABNB at low 180s earlier this year and felt it was a good value, but I sold at a small profit to move into crypto which ended up being a really smart move for me. I agree with Jone that 180-200 is a reasonable price target. Revenue and income should see steady increases all year and probably into 2022 as well.

I took some profits on Tesla that I bought at $599 on the last dip, but am gonna hold the money for other stuff for now. I'm just getting into options lately (mostly easy stuff like covered calls and selling puts for stocks I want to buy) and have a lot to learn. I was actually eyeing $73 calls on AMC for $7.50 this morning, but decided to sit the madness out. They ended up peaking in the $15 range. Would have been a nice gamble, but a bit risky for my blood.

I'm watching CLOV as a possible Reddit target. It's a company with improving financials and a solid plan for the future (especially if we see Medicare expansion). Short interest is ridiculously high at 36%. The stock was trading for as low as $7 just a few weeks ago, but moved all the way up to $9.82 in after hours today. I bought some cheap calls at $13, $14, and $16 for the next three months and am already up about 20%. A "safer" and more reasonable alternative would be to just buy the stock (or sell puts) and then sell covered calls as it moves up, but I'm living on the edge with this one.

[doner24 | 1,195]

1 hour ago, DoctorEncore said:

 

I had ABNB at low 180s earlier this year and felt it was a good value, but I sold at a small profit to move into crypto which ended up being a really smart move for me. I agree with Jone that 180-200 is a reasonable price target. Revenue and income should see steady increases all year and probably into 2022 as well.

I took some profits on Tesla that I bought at $599 on the last dip, but am gonna hold the money for other stuff for now. I'm just getting into options lately (mostly easy stuff like covered calls and selling puts for stocks I want to buy) and have a lot to learn. I was actually eyeing $73 calls on AMC for $7.50 this morning, but decided to sit the madness out. They ended up peaking in the $15 range. Would have been a nice gamble, but a bit risky for my blood.

I'm watching CLOV as a possible Reddit target. It's a company with improving financials and a solid plan for the future (especially if we see Medicare expansion). Short interest is ridiculously high at 36%. The stock was trading for as low as $7 just a few weeks ago, but moved all the way up to $9.82 in after hours today. I bought some cheap calls at $13, $14, and $16 for the next three months and am already up about 20%. A "safer" and more reasonable alternative would be to just buy the stock (or sell puts) and then sell covered calls as it moves up, but I'm living on the edge with this one.

I grabbed my first ever call this morning for AMC, wish I would’ve grabbed a lot more! 

[jonebone | 1,307]

7 hours ago, doner24 said:

I grabbed my first ever call this morning for AMC, wish I would’ve grabbed a lot more! 

You should see the buyer of the 16 calls at $22 I sold last week.  I'm sure he's sitting pretty.  I got $4k for them at the time but live and learn.  I tell people you can't regret profit or you'll never be able to sleep at night.  There's always "Should have bought more" or "Shouldn't have sold" stories, but ones selling or holding steep losses really feel the pain. 

[DoctorEncore | 3,691]

9 hours ago, doner24 said:

I grabbed my first ever call this morning for AMC, wish I would’ve grabbed a lot more! 

Nice! Now we're gambling!

Just make sure you have an exit strategy! If AMC reaches a steady state, the value of your option will steadily decline as time decay occurs (i.e. the time until expiry decreases). Consider having a sell-to-close limit order in place to ensure you keep the amount of profit you want. Or have a price alert set up and exercise your option to buy the shares if you want them (I wouldn't do this with AMC, but you do you).

[RH | 4,903]

I bought into AMC around $27 last week.  I just bought stocks.  I'm not ready for options yet because for one, I don't have that type of money in my trading account and second, I've not learned enough to be "safe".  Regardless, I sold half of my share yesterday when I broke above doubling my value.  So, my current AMC shares are "free".  I feel like this rally/stock squeeze might be losing steam but I can't say for sure.  Regardless, from this point I only have profit to take.  The question is, will it be more or less profit from when I first cashed out?  Who knows, but at least I won't be losing.

2 hours ago, jonebone said:

I tell people you can't regret profit or you'll never be able to sleep at night.  There's always "Should have bought more" or "Shouldn't have sold" stories, but ones selling or holding steep losses really feel the pain. 

This 100%.  If there was one thing that I learned in crypto is that you should set "safe" rules for yourself and follow them.  Sure, for every rule there is an exception, but having a strategy for entry, hodling and selling helps a lot.  In my crypto days the rule was get out when you double your investment.  That was tough because it was easy to support a worthwhile ICO when it was announced, be patient and when the coin hit an exchange, it'd often sell for more than double the ICO price.  Regardless, if/when it was feasible, I would NOT ride spikes hoping to get the high because you never get the high.

As @jonebone says, never regret profit.  If your account is increasing and if you're especially doing better than the SP 500 (and certainly your money market), you are doing well.  Just keep that in mind.

 

[doner24 | 1,195]

3 hours ago, jonebone said:

You should see the buyer of the 16 calls at $22 I sold last week.  I'm sure he's sitting pretty.  I got $4k for them at the time but live and learn.  I tell people you can't regret profit or you'll never be able to sleep at night.  There's always "Should have bought more" or "Shouldn't have sold" stories, but ones selling or holding steep losses really feel the pain. 

Agreed, I’m always happy selling “too early” and taking a profit. 

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

12 hours ago, DoctorEncore said:

 

I'm watching CLOV as a possible Reddit target. It's a company with improving financials and a solid plan for the future (especially if we see Medicare expansion). Short interest is ridiculously high at 36%. The stock was trading for as low as $7 just a few weeks ago, but moved all the way up to $9.82 in after hours today. I bought some cheap calls at $13, $14, and $16 for the next three months and am already up about 20%. A "safer" and more reasonable alternative would be to just buy the stock (or sell puts) and then sell covered calls as it moves up, but I'm living on the edge with this one.

Saw some chatter around this with a few of the bigger "YOLO" players, so I'm tagging along for a small gamble on this one, as well.

[Californication | 1,477]

What to buy..what to buy...everything is my fav. color for buying.

[DoctorEncore | 3,691]

20 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

Saw some chatter around this with a few of the bigger "YOLO" players, so I'm tagging along for a small gamble on this one, as well.

My options were up 200% at open, quickly fell, but are still up over 100% in 24 hours. This is definitely gambling haha.