Stock Analysis and Trades Thread

[DoctorEncore | 3,690]

2 hours ago, DoctorEncore said:

But I clearly don't know anything about anything haha.

Glad I added this qualifier. I still think it will crash hard, but not sure when. People have finally learned to take profits on meme stocks.

[Brickman | 3,982]

I won’t be going anywhere near DWAC but I will say that I actually wouldn’t be surprised if this stock climbs further and holds its ground.

If Trump’s Truth Social actually becomes an alternative to FB and YT it could make some serious money.

These brainwashed idiots will flock to the site and will most likely spend big. YouTube & FB are shutting down fake news (as they should) so this will be the perfect place for all the tin foil hat people and Trump fanatics. 

It may also crash and burn like the majority of Trump’s business ventures.

[phart010 | 1,705]

5 hours ago, DoctorEncore said:

Glad I added this qualifier. I still think it will crash hard, but not sure when. People have finally learned to take profits on meme stocks.

DWAC -> $90

[Aguy | 771]

1 hour ago, Shmup said:

It may also crash and burn like the majority of Trump’s business ventures.

1300% increase in one day... I think he already made his money.

[Kguillemette | 1,543]

I went ahead and bought the dip on Toast when it fell under 50 on Friday. I don't plan on buying more unless it dips under 50 before earnings. Restaurants are highly volatile businesses right now and can be very weather dependent, but Toast is just a great product. It glitches very little, the userface is very easy to use, it's super fast to turn tables as you can send orders to the kitchen remotely, online take out menus can be updated super quick, not enough good things to say about it, especially compared to other lesser POS systems I've used, like micros, POSitouch, aloha(which is actually okay, but the included hardware isn't nearly as revenue and user friendly). If it gets beaten down after earnings like every new IPO ever seems to lately, I'll buy a bunch more.

[phart010 | 1,705]

SHIB

[DoctorEncore | 3,690]

Amazon had a big miss on earnings so the stock dropped about 150 points last night (oof). The stock has fluctuated from 3000-3500 over the last year, so it's not a big deal, but it's still a bit painful. On the other hand, Microsoft continues to absolutely kill it.

My other favorites (Square, SoFi, and BABA) continue to trade sideways, so they've been great for low risk weekly premiums. I usually shoot for the .80-1.00 range on calls/puts.

Lastly, one of my worst performers, WISH remains lucrative on options. I've been selling the $7.50 and it's paying pretty well over a two week term. I think the current entry point is actually fine and you can make some good money on $7 and $7.50 short-term options while maintaining a good chance of future profit.

Edited October 29, 2021 by DoctorEncore

[Brickman | 3,982]

Lithium prices and stocks continue to rise and should have a nice finish to the year. Some highlights

• Tesla have just secured a 3 year Lithium supply deal with Ganfeng
• Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) continue to reach new highs with their auction offtakes with very strong demand
• China is shoring up mines now in South America to meet the demand
• China EV sales continue to surge. Especially companies like Xpeng and Nio.
• Europe EV sales starting to climb higher with 1 in 5 an EV sale last quarter.
• Lithium price continues to climb and still have a way to go imo due to supply constraints that will continue to at least 2023/24

In terms of Pilbara Minerals. They continue to beat estimations on Lithium shipped and have just inked a joint venture deal with Posco to build a lithium hydroxide plant. We should see Pilbara finally earn a profit by next quarter and then from there I'm hoping they can either acquire more mines or do more digging.

Outlook:

Lithium is still very much facing a supply shortage until at least the end of '23 into '24. Demand will increase so it is possible the supply constraint will last until the end of the decade even with new mines coming online. I think we will see the price of Lithium move up a further 100% from current prices to the end of '23.

YTD/YOY Lithium snapshot performance:

PLS(ASX)- 154%/466%

ALB (NYSE)- 70%/166%

LIT ETF- 39.5%/104.5%

[Kguillemette | 1,543]

Toast has been killing it. I'm wishing I made a bigger bet at this point.

[Brickman | 3,982]

8 minutes ago, Kguillemette said:

Toast has been killing it. I'm wishing I made a bigger bet at this point.

Do you know much about their expansion plans into other countries? The current share price makes it hard for me to pull the trigger on this stock but I think they have great potential if they can pull it off and grab a large market share.

[Kguillemette | 1,543]

4 minutes ago, Shmup said:

Do you know much about their expansion plans into other countries? The current share price makes it hard for me to pull the trigger on this stock but I think they have great potential if they can pull it off and grab a large market share.

Honestly I just bought it because I really like the company and their product. This push they are having right now doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but the ride is fun in the meantime. 

[Brickman | 3,982]

11 minutes ago, Kguillemette said:

Honestly I just bought it because I really like the company and their product. This push they are having right now doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but the ride is fun in the meantime. 

I'll keep an eye on them.

I'm not super knowledgeable on POS systems but the previous place I worked at I had to maintain them and the software was absolute rubbish and they are supposedly one of the leaders here.

So I know that this space is just waiting for an absolute amazing company to come along and from your comments it appears they have nailed everything wrong with other POS systems. 

[RH | 4,895]

I've still not found a good way to view order book buy/sell pressure for stocks, but based off of the recent trades for Coinbase (COIN), I think it has good resistance where it's at now (~$350) and could pop to $440-450 in the next week or so.

I wouldn't bet the farm, but my gut says if you're not in this one yet, you could make a quick 25-33% in the coming week or so. 

[DoctorEncore | 3,690]

3 hours ago, RH said:

I've still not found a good way to view order book buy/sell pressure for stocks, but based off of the recent trades for Coinbase (COIN), I think it has good resistance where it's at now (~$350) and could pop to $440-450 in the next week or so.

I wouldn't bet the farm, but my gut says if you're not in this one yet, you could make a quick 25-33% in the coming week or so. 

I had it at 280 and played options for a few months, then sold at 300. I figure if I want crypto exposure, I'll just buy crypto directly. Still, I think think the stock is reasonable to hold, but I'm not a huge fan.

Square took a hit on earnings and is back at a really nice entry point. I'm holding at 244 and selling some puts to see if I can capitalize on the dip.

Edited November 4, 2021 by DoctorEncore

[Kguillemette | 1,543]

5 minutes ago, DoctorEncore said:

I had it at 280 and played options for a few months, then sold at 300. I figure if I want crypto exposure, I'll just buy crypto directly. Still, I think think the stock is reasonable to hold, but I'm not a huge fan.

Square took a hit on earnings and is back at a really nice entry point. I'm holding at 244 and selling some puts to see if I can capitalize on the dip.

I saw they are buying a company called afterpay, giving them pseudo "credit card" lending capabilities now. Square seems to be setting themselves up to be like an Amazon of finance by the looks of things. I'll be watching closely for a nice entry tomorrow. Thanks for the tip!

[Brickman | 3,982]

I think they massively overpaid for Afterpay and there is very little barrier to entry for BNPL. Pretty much everyone is doing it now and Square paid $39bn for basically just their customer base which I don't think would be very loyal and probably have multiple BNPL providers. Having said that, I wish I had bought Afterpay when I had the chance at $14 but decided to buy something else.

I really like Square but I still think they're way too pricey and probably why they've traded somewhat sideways since the start of the year. I'd be interested in them closer to $200. Still a great company though and will probably do very well over the long run.

[DoctorEncore | 3,690]

2 hours ago, Kguillemette said:

I saw they are buying a company called afterpay, giving them pseudo "credit card" lending capabilities now. Square seems to be setting themselves up to be like an Amazon of finance by the looks of things. I'll be watching closely for a nice entry tomorrow. Thanks for the tip!

 

1 hour ago, Shmup said:

I think they massively overpaid for Afterpay and there is very little barrier to entry for BNPL. Pretty much everyone is doing it now and Square paid $39bn for basically just their customer base which I don't think would be very loyal and probably have multiple BNPL providers. Having said that, I wish I had bought Afterpay when I had the chance at $14 but decided to buy something else.

I really like Square but I still think they're way too pricey and probably why they've traded somewhat sideways since the start of the year. I'd be interested in them closer to $200. Still a great company though and will probably do very well over the long run.

Yeah, I like them as a long hold for sure. I could see $1000 price in 5-10 years, which would be a fantastic return. It also has high volatility for a good company, so long calls pay really well (15-20% for a year out).

I also still love SoFi, but the price has run up faster than I expected it to. I like it more in the sub-$18 range, so that's where I sell my puts. Their next earnings report should still be affected by the sting of student loan forbearance, so I'm hoping for a decent pullback next week.

[DoctorEncore | 3,690]

I picked up a few more shares of SQ at 241 and plan to keep using all my premiums to buy more.

I'm also getting into BABA and NIO as China stabilizes a bit. I like BABA under 160 and NIO under 40, so I'm selling puts to reflect that.

[RH | 4,895]

On 11/4/2021 at 3:45 PM, RH said:

I've still not found a good way to view order book buy/sell pressure for stocks, but based off of the recent trades for Coinbase (COIN), I think it has good resistance where it's at now (~$350) and could pop to $440-450 in the next week or so.

I wouldn't bet the farm, but my gut says if you're not in this one yet, you could make a quick 25-33% in the coming week or so. 

Coinbase has been doing well, but this evening is the earnings report.  I have a feeling that sales aren't what are expected.  I've sold off a few shares to turn around and pick up an extra share from the dip from the profits of today's sale.

Of course, I could be wrong on the revenue earned and the stock might go gang-busters tonight after hours, but I'm hedging the risk, hoping to make long-term profits of a sell off tonight and tomorrow.

[Kguillemette | 1,543]

I'm considering starting a position in Kimberly Clark. Nice stable dividend stock and with the tension surrounding China these days, it would be nice to add an American manufacturer of essential commodities to my portfolio. People will always need diapers and paper towels. And there is probably decent growth potential as suppliers and distributers move away from Chinese made goods due to decreased availability. I know things like take out boxes and disposable drink cups have been getting scarce lately.

[Aguy | 771]

@Kguillemette I would also suggest 3M if you're looking for American made long term holds. They've raised dividends for the pass 63 consecutive years and the EX date is in 2 days.

[Daniel_Doyce | 470]

The market took a pretty big dump on Friday because of the continued irrational reaction to Covid. Anyone looking at any travel or hospitality stocks in particular?

[Daniel_Doyce | 470]

It's been real quiet here.

Insurtechs have been eating a big dick over the last year, mainly because people are realizing their business models, for the most part, don't make any sense. ROOT is in the $3 territory, Lemonade has cratered, and MILE is even worse. I was thinking about shorting ROOT for a while but waited too long.

[Brickman | 3,982]

Just now, Daniel_Doyce said:

It's been real quiet here.

Insurtechs have been eating a big dick over the last year, mainly because people are realizing their business models, for the most part, don't make any sense. ROOT is in the $3 territory, Lemonade has cratered, and MILE is even worse. I was thinking about shorting ROOT for a while but waited too long.

I'm in the process of writing up my year review of the Lithium stocks that I purchased a year ago. Lithium is going to have a great two years imo.

[Brickman | 3,982]

On 1/21/2021 at 11:02 AM, Brickman said:

Just an update on my Lithium post. I ended up buying 667 GXY @$2.93 and initially 2727 PLS @1.10 and then a further 3840 PLS @1.30 (average price now at $1.22).

I plan to keep these for a year and see how they go. I liked how jonebone provided updates on his GME holdings so I might provide some updates along the way. You can track me either making a stupid mistake or a good pick haha.

Now hopefully Biden will make an announcement soon about EVs and that should hopefully send a further rocket up Lithium's prices.

Holdings:

 

A little over a year ago I posted about two Australian Lithium miners that I believed were undervalued and also a good long-term prospect.  

The plan was to document on here a year holding the two companies to see how I go and where they ended up. A year is nothing in investing time frames but I had mainly invested in tech and retail stocks in the past so this was a bit of an experience to learn about mining, which is a pretty big component of the Australian economy. 

I’ll start with GXY. I held them for a while but they ended up getting taken over. I sold out for a 30% profit but I should have held because they went up about another 30%. I didn’t know much about the takeover company and it wasn’t a lot of money so I sold them and bought more PLS. 

PLS - Within the first few weeks of my original parcel PLS shot up from my original investment of a $1.10 to around $1.30 only to then fall back down to a $1. I believed in Lithium so I used this opportunity to buy up big and I never stopped buying PLS when I had the spare cash. They bounced around $1-$1.40 for about 5 months and as the results kept ticking the boxes I kept buying. My original investment is a bit over a two bagger today and I don’t see PLS stopping any time soon. Today PLS are at roughly $3.79 and I believe still have a way to go yet.

During the year I also bought into other Australian Lithium miners and they are doing well and continue to tick the boxes. I believe Lithium is going to be huge this decade. There is a massive deficit and that most likely won’t be close to being filled until the end of the decade. The next two years I believe we will see massive price growth in the cost of lithium due to very few mines actually coming online until minimum 2024. From 2024 we will most likely see some stablising of the price but it should still remain high until the demand is somewhat met. 

BoA have also recently forecast that they believe the spot price for Lithium will most likely reach $3900US a tonne this year. I don’t think they will be far of and possibly could be a little under. 

There’s still plenty of room for growth in PLS and other Lithium miners. If you are looking into the sector, I recommend staying away from African mines and Chilean mines. Australian lithium mines are in the best position right now but there is one project that I’m looking at that is in Arizona that will be huge if it gets the drilling rights (looking good so far).