Stock Analysis and Trades Thread

[DoctorEncore | 3,690]

2 hours ago, Californication said:

I missed most of the run up on energy stocks. Am thinking about grabbing some chv and dvn. When I looked at many of the oil stocks last year I though the B/S were mostly terrible, but they've got some heat behind them and are mostly still slightly below pre-pandemic levels. Any thoughts?

Can't say I know much about the energy stocks but I noticed a few are looking strong. I'm personally big on AirBnB, Square, Apple, and Microsoft during this downturn. I think their bottom prices during this dip are going to be absolute steals. Apple and Microsoft are just ridiculously strong companies right now with great leadership. AirBnB should see a huge revenue jump as the year goes on. And Square has used the pandemic to grow in really smart ways. They are the number one non-marketplace app for crypto and they just opened their own bank. They are catering to the next generation of earners and I think it will be rewarded.

[Californication | 1,477]

1 hour ago, DoctorEncore said:

Can't say I know much about the energy stocks but I noticed a few are looking strong. I'm personally big on AirBnB, Square, Apple, and Microsoft during this downturn. I think their bottom prices during this dip are going to be absolute steals. Apple and Microsoft are just ridiculously strong companies right now with great leadership. AirBnB should see a huge revenue jump as the year goes on. And Square has used the pandemic to grow in really smart ways. They are the number one non-marketplace app for crypto and they just opened their own bank. They are catering to the next generation of earners and I think it will be rewarded.

I heard something interesting the other day. Someone was saying that during the stock market bubble microsoft was at 55 P/E and dropped in half. So when I see these tech companys in the 30's and other tech companys in the sector higher which could drag it down, I am still a little worry of buying in yet.

I think the oil conpanys are a good play right now, but I am watching for weakness and I really like FDX going into earnings although even though it is questionable if their $300 high is as meaningful with the increasing interest rates. Etsy went crazynafter earnings, which is a good sign, but it also had the luck of the second day after earnings hitting the day thebmarket snapped back. The shorts attacked etsy for weeks going into earnings so on fdx I am just taking the big dips and keeping some cash in reserve if they attack near final days.

Edited March 5, 2021 by Californication

[jonebone | 1,307]

2 hours ago, DoctorEncore said:

Can't say I know much about the energy stocks but I noticed a few are looking strong. I'm personally big on AirBnB, Square, Apple, and Microsoft during this downturn. I think their bottom prices during this dip are going to be absolute steals. Apple and Microsoft are just ridiculously strong companies right now with great leadership. AirBnB should see a huge revenue jump as the year goes on. And Square has used the pandemic to grow in really smart ways. They are the number one non-marketplace app for crypto and they just opened their own bank. They are catering to the next generation of earners and I think it will be rewarded.

Gotta be careful with that mentality though.  You can love a company and everything it stands for but every good company still will go through a downtrend.  In the case of SQ they went from $50 to $250 in a year.  You can love everything they're doing but it's simple profit taking of people who have been in awhile deciding they are going to sell and the feedback loop repeating as the tech sell off continues.  It's gone from $280 to $200 in a couple of weeks now, and I could see it testing much lower even.

Case in point is Zillow (Z) for me.  I love the company and really like the stock, think I played it from the $35 to $70 run as I foolishly get out of things when I double up sometimes.  I was telling myself I liked Zillow again at $140 (down from a high of $200), but we've blown through that already and I may have to target $100 as an entry.

Problem is of course if things turn around you may never get in and that's a risk you take.  Or if you're in too early, you stomach a lot of downside.  But reading the support levels on a chart does take as much emotion of he the trade as you can and improves your entries and exits over time.  Nothing is ever for sure, but you can mitigate some of the risk and "feel" by doing that. 

[DoctorEncore | 3,690]

5 hours ago, jonebone said:

Gotta be careful with that mentality though.  You can love a company and everything it stands for but every good company still will go through a downtrend.  In the case of SQ they went from $50 to $250 in a year.  You can love everything they're doing but it's simple profit taking of people who have been in awhile deciding they are going to sell and the feedback loop repeating as the tech sell off continues.  It's gone from $280 to $200 in a couple of weeks now, and I could see it testing much lower even.

Case in point is Zillow (Z) for me.  I love the company and really like the stock, think I played it from the $35 to $70 run as I foolishly get out of things when I double up sometimes.  I was telling myself I liked Zillow again at $140 (down from a high of $200), but we've blown through that already and I may have to target $100 as an entry.

Problem is of course if things turn around you may never get in and that's a risk you take.  Or if you're in too early, you stomach a lot of downside.  But reading the support levels on a chart does take as much emotion of he the trade as you can and improves your entries and exits over time.  Nothing is ever for sure, but you can mitigate some of the risk and "feel" by doing that. 

Very good points for sure. I guess I'm really talking about a very long hold on these companies. Getting in now nets you a 20-30% discount from where they were a month ago. But you're absolutely right, buying in the middle of this dip (mini-crash?) means you better be prepared to see red before green. I just really like the growth potential of these four and I think they are at a decent entry point right now. I don't plan to take any profits on them for months or years. I've actually held my current Microsoft stake since 2018 and may keep holding for 10-15 more years.

Are you gonna try to find an early entry point for Coinbase? It should be hot, but the OSCR IPO has me second guessing.

[DoctorEncore | 3,690]

6 hours ago, Californication said:

I heard something interesting the other day. Someone was saying that during the stock market bubble microsoft was at 55 P/E and dropped in half. So when I see these tech companys in the 30's and other tech companys in the sector higher which could drag it down, I am still a little worry of buying in yet.

I think the oil conpanys are a good play right now, but I am watching for weakness and I really like FDX going into earnings although even though it is questionable if their $300 high is as meaningful with the increasing interest rates. Etsy went crazynafter earnings, which is a good sign, but it also had the luck of the second day after earnings hitting the day thebmarket snapped back. The shorts attacked etsy for weeks going into earnings so on fdx I am just taking the big dips and keeping some cash in reserve if they attack near final days.

Sometimes I wonder if traditional thinking on P/E even plays any significant role in stock trends anymore. Amazon is at 71, but is clearly a great company and has lost 15% this year. Tesla is a 1000 and is up about 20% for the year (previously up around 80% for the year before crashing down to earth).

I really need to do some energy research this week. It seems like that's where the money is. Also, it seems like earnings announcements are more like dice rolls than anything lately. Beat expectations but didn't beat them by 40%? Immediate ten percent drop. I mean, come on market.

Edited March 5, 2021 by DoctorEncore

[Brickman | 3,978]

7 hours ago, Californication said:

I heard something interesting the other day. Someone was saying that during the stock market bubble microsoft was at 55 P/E and dropped in half. So when I see these tech companys in the 30's and other tech companys in the sector higher which could drag it down, I am still a little worry of buying in yet.

Looking just at P/E can be a trap sometimes. You also need to look at what is happening with the company overall.

People have been saying Microsoft’s P/E is too high for years. What they don’t understand is that their cloud business is absolutely killing it and now with Teams, the new Xbox and Gamepass they will continue making crazy money.

[SilverspoonGaming | 331]

Welp, I sold the stocks I have and put it all into AAPL.  With how many phones they sell every generation, they will never fall backwards.  Probably the safest long term investment I could have made other than AMZN, well, except for graded NES games...

[Californication | 1,477]

I hope everyone bought at least one GME ticket to the moon. It's been such a smooth ride the last two weeks. The aggressive increase today is going to be stressful.

Edited March 8, 2021 by Californication

[Kguillemette | 1,543]

I am super bullish on WISH after ER yesterday. No debt, crazy sales, and trading like 20%lower than their IPO. I took a beating on them the last couple months, but I think they will pay off very well in the next few years. I'll probably take the opportunity to avg down today. I know my wife loves their app, she buys all kinds of crap from them.

[jonebone | 1,307]

Are we believing the tech bounce or is it a head fake? Didn't get an entry in Z or PTON like I wanted, not sure if I believe in going long here yet.

Side note, AMC on fire again, sold more covered calls today. For anyone playing along I highly recommend covered calls as a strategy for passive income. AMC has been treating me well so far. 

[Kguillemette | 1,543]

23 minutes ago, jonebone said:

Are we believing the tech bounce or is it a head fake? Didn't get an entry in Z or PTON like I wanted, not sure if I believe in going long here yet.

Side note, AMC on fire again, sold more covered calls today. For anyone playing along I highly recommend covered calls as a strategy for passive income. AMC has been treating me well so far. 

Considering how tech heavy my portfolio is, I sure hope it's the bounce! 

I'm still new at this, It never occured to me that I was buying multiple stocks in the same sector. Lesson learned. I know it will come back eventually, but man is it a roller coaster ride!

[DoctorEncore | 3,690]

On 3/9/2021 at 8:31 AM, Kguillemette said:

I am super bullish on WISH after ER yesterday. No debt, crazy sales, and trading like 20%lower than their IPO. I took a beating on them the last couple months, but I think they will pay off very well in the next few years. I'll probably take the opportunity to avg down today. I know my wife loves their app, she buys all kinds of crap from them.

Can't say I know much about them. How have their earnings and growth been?

Oscar Health IPO has treated me very well so far. Bought in a little high, but averaged down to $33 on the dip. Already looking at a very nice profit I could roll into something else. Alternatively, I may be able to hold, but their potential is unclear still.

Anyone buying Roblox today? Or in the usual post-IPO dip? $65-70 seems steep.

Also, this Tesla bounce is nauseating. I would have been happy to pick up at $500, but $580 seemed step. Apparently I was way off on that one as it's now approaching $700. I guess Cathie Wood really does know her shit.

Edited March 10, 2021 by DoctorEncore

[Kguillemette | 1,543]

4 hours ago, DoctorEncore said:

Can't say I know much about them. How have their earnings and growth been?

Oscar Health IPO has treated me very well so far. Bought in a little high, but averaged down to $33 on the dip. Already looking at a very nice profit I could roll into something else. Alternatively, I may be able to hold, but their potential is unclear still.

Anyone buying Roblox today? Or in the usual post-IPO dip? $65-70 seems steep.

Also, this Tesla bounce is nauseating. I would have been happy to pick up at $500, but $580 seemed step. Apparently I was way off on that one as it's now approaching $700. I guess Cathie Wood really does know her shit.

They are up 38% year to year for revenue. They are essentially a marketplace and logistics company for cheap chinese goods companies. There may be something big I am missing from their ER, but there's a lot to like as far as I can tell from a long term standpoint. I'll probably keep nibbling as long as they stay in the teens or lower.

[SilverspoonGaming | 331]

I invested in AMC today at under $11 per share.  Hopefully it will explode again like ppl are saying.

[Braveheart69 | 124]

2 very nice overnight bounces for me I only share as one was video game history related.  Bought PONGF (Atari) yesterday.  10,000 at .50, sold today for .64 = $1,400 gain overnight not bad.  I also had a limit buy of 4,000 at 7.99 on OCGN in as it’s been falling since they announced their COVID drug results.  It filled yesterday and I sold out today at 10.45 got to 10.65 before it fell back to 9.60 by the close, but for me $9,840 gain overnight.  Fun when the market gives you gifts like these.  
 

 

[Kguillemette | 1,543]

3 hours ago, Braveheart69 said:

2 very nice overnight bounces for me I only share as one was video game history related.  Bought PONGF (Atari) yesterday.  10,000 at .50, sold today for .64 = $1,400 gain overnight not bad.  I also had a limit buy of 4,000 at 7.99 on OCGN in as it’s been falling since they announced their COVID drug results.  It filled yesterday and I sold out today at 10.45 got to 10.65 before it fell back to 9.60 by the close, but for me $9,840 gain overnight.  Fun when the market gives you gifts like these.  
 

 

I'm happy to hear something good actually came from Atari recently!

[Californication | 1,477]

Anyone looking at the 10 year treasury? Could be bad today.

[LeatherRebel5150 | 1,055]

This is the first time looking at this thread so it may have been discussed somewhere way back but as a complete newb at this I'm curious if someone could explain what's going on with Nintendo stock? They seem to jump around all over the place and tanked below their 50 day MA. What would seem to be the cause? With constant good sales and potential for new hardware it would seem like it should be less hectic.

[Kguillemette | 1,543]

4 hours ago, LeatherRebel5150 said:

This is the first time looking at this thread so it may have been discussed somewhere way back but as a complete newb at this I'm curious if someone could explain what's going on with Nintendo stock? They seem to jump around all over the place and tanked below their 50 day MA. What would seem to be the cause? With constant good sales and potential for new hardware it would seem like it should be less hectic.

Tech in general has taken a beating the last couple months pretty much across the board. EV stocks, internet stocks, pretty much everything tech related. It doesn't have anything to do with health of the companies in general, more where people are tossing their money these days. 

[LeatherRebel5150 | 1,055]

38 minutes ago, Kguillemette said:

Tech in general has taken a beating the last couple months pretty much across the board. EV stocks, internet stocks, pretty much everything tech related. It doesn't have anything to do with health of the companies in general, more where people are tossing their money these days. 

So its more emotional/an affect if the whole sector vs issues with nintendo?

[Kguillemette | 1,543]

12 minutes ago, LeatherRebel5150 said:

So its more emotional/an affect if the whole sector vs issues with nintendo?

Pretty much, that's my best guess anyway. Nintendo is a very strong company with so much stuff going on. The Nintendo theme park and clothing line collaborations tells me that Mario is getting the Mickey Mouse treatment. Just like Disney isn't just an animation studio anymore, Nintendo isn't just a video game company anymore. If I were to buy Nintendo, I would probably hold it forever. The sky is the limit.

[DoctorEncore | 3,690]

 

 

29 minutes ago, LeatherRebel5150 said:

So its more emotional/an affect if the whole sector vs issues with nintendo?

Nintendo is a good company with stable financials, but they are a one trick pony. They do videogames and they do them well, but the console market is only so big. Best case scenario, you sell 10-15 million consoles per year for around ten years, then you start over and do it again. They've started to branch out with more licensing deals, television, theme parks, mobile, and other alternative revenue streams, but those things still only make up a fraction of their total revenue.

The market values growth stocks, so if you're goal is to make a lot of money, Nintendo is not a particularly profitable investment. If you're looking for stability, they do pay a dividend and they will likely be a similar sized company with similar financials ten years from now. They just can't compete with other growth stocks in the tech industry that have a much larger potential for revenue.

[Brickman | 3,978]

This made me laugh:

[Kguillemette | 1,543]

On 11/23/2020 at 10:03 PM, Daniel_Doyce said:

So it will be a Chinese company that owns an American company in an SPAC.

Maybe it will work out for you, but I don't want to invest in a company whose financials I can't review and is entering as a competitor in a very high risk industry that already has some major players.

Let us know when it goes through so we can keep an eye on it.

Merger just went through.

[RH | 4,895]

I've been a long hold on Nintendo (NTDOY) for a while because it's one of those stocks where I follow Buffett's advice that if you like a company and their goods and services, they are good company to invest in long term.  It's simple advice and though it's not the only reason to select a stock, it is a good reason to consider them.

Anyway, Sony has recently announced that they are closing the eShop for the PSP and Vita this summer.  IMHO, there are a lot of people, young and old, that prefer mobile gaming.  This leaves the Switch and the 2/3DS as the only remaining portable gaming devices on the market.  I think this will have a net-positive on Nintendos sales through the end of the year.  There is no market-bump for the company now but mid-term (or what ever you'd call through Christmas) I think this will be a factor for a lot of people's buying decisions.  Granted, I don't know when the Vita was discontinued, but a lot of developers have continued to develop for it and old Vita die-hards are likely to move to the Switch just because it is a handheld and is accessible. Online sales should be more profitable than physical, so that is a bonus.

Thoughts on this?

Also, another "boring" stock that has done well for me over the many months is American National Bankshares (AMNB).  No, this is not a sexy stock.  It's a small bank in Virginia, and branching out in the coastal North Carolina region.  However, they have really strong financials, seem to expand at a reasonable pace and are consistently outperforming estimates.  Simply put, they are just a very well run, profitable regional bank that pays out decent dividends. So again, thoughts?