The Spreading (And Potentially Deadly) Coronavirus Epidemic....

[Tabonga | 2,328]

AOC so often just leaves me breathless - and not for any good reasons.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/22/alexandria_ocasio-cortez_americans_should_just_say_no_to_going_back_to_work_after_reopening_society.htmll

The last time she made feel like this was when she thought the collapse of the oil market was a good thing and would somehow benefit her pet green dreams.   

https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-price-negative-aoc-tweet-absolutely-love-see-it-deleted-2020-4

[Reed Rothchild | 9,574]

1 hour ago, CodysGameRoom said:

I don't see any way out of this until a vaccine is created, tested, and approved and who knows how long that will take.

Hope the California antibody numbers have legs and that herd immunity is much further along than we thought.  Metropolitan areas would still need stuff distancing to control the curve of course.

[Tabonga | 2,328]

9 minutes ago, Reed Rothchild said:

Hope the California antibody numbers have legs and that herd immunity is much further along than we thought

On a somewhat (paradoxical perhaps) positive note the latest study shows that up to 2.7 million New Yorkers have been exposed to the virus.  Combined with the 16k deaths reported that works out to a .6% mortality rate if I am doing my (admittedly) old skool math properly.  

Edited April 23, 2020 by Tabonga

[Reed Rothchild | 9,574]

4 minutes ago, Tabonga said:

On a somewhat (paradoxical perhaps) positive note the latest study shows that up to 2.7 million New Yorkers have been exposed to the virus.  Combined with the 16k deaths reported that works out to a .6% mortality rate if I am doing my (admittedly) old skool math properly.  

Yeah I saw that.  I'm skeptical, but that would be insanely great news for the world.

[Tabonga | 2,328]

6 minutes ago, Reed Rothchild said:

Yeah I saw that.  I'm skeptical, but that would be insanely great news for the world.

If even close to accurate,  it reaffirms my belief that the virus has been bouncing around much longer than originally thought* - I thought I read/heard somewhere that they have some much earlier deaths in the US that they now believe may have been virus related.   

*It really didn't get recognition until it hit those vulnerable nursing home populations in Washington.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Tabonga

[Reed Rothchild | 9,574]

4 minutes ago, Tabonga said:

If even close to accurate,  it reaffirms my belief that the virus has been bouncing around much longer than originally thought* - I thought I read/heard somewhere that they have some much earlier deaths in the US that they now believe may have been virus related.   

*It really didn't get recognition until it hit some those vulnerable nursing home populations in Washington.

That would make more sense if there were different strains with dramatically different outcomes out there, which doesnt appear to be the case.

Instead, we hear lots of "oh yeah, me and my friends all got sick back whenever," which makes zero sense in connection to a global pandemic

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

5 minutes ago, Tabonga said:

If even close to accurate,  it reaffirms my belief that the virus has been bouncing around much longer than originally thought* - I thought I read/heard somewhere that they have some much earlier deaths in the US that they now believe may have been virus related.   

*It really didn't get recognition until it hit those vulnerable nursing home populations in Washington.

The issue with that idea (that we've had it around a lot longer than we realized) is that RIGHT NOW the daily deaths from Covid-19 are spiking in a way that they are the current leading cause of death in some places. (though SOME of that is attributable to how statistics consider specific cause of death)

 

I think it is equally plausible that there is, or was, a much less dangerous coronavirus going around that either had now symptoms, or common cold symptoms, and that the current antibody tests for Covid-19 may show antibodies for other types of coronavirus than covid-19.

[Tabonga | 2,328]

Just now, Reed Rothchild said:

That would make more sense if there were different strains with dramatically different outcomes out there, which doesnt appear to be the case.

Instead, we hear lots of "oh yeah, me and my friends all got sick back whenever," which makes zero sense in connection to a global pandemic

I think we have to assume that it just took awhile to work its way to the nursing homes - information is surprisingly hard to track down but the last figures I saw were that roughly 20% of the casualties have been in nursing homes,

And given the apparently widespread mild (to the point of being non-existent) manifestation of symptoms recalling things in hindsight that might have been it makes perfect sense to me.

 

[Tabonga | 2,328]

13 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

The issue with that idea (that we've had it around a lot longer than we realized) is that RIGHT NOW the daily deaths from Covid-19 are spiking in a way that they are the current leading cause of death in some places. (though SOME of that is attributable to how statistics consider specific cause of death)

 

I think it is equally plausible that there is, or was, a much less dangerous coronavirus going around that either had now symptoms, or common cold symptoms, and that the current antibody tests for Covid-19 may show antibodies for other types of coronavirus than covid-19.

They have to spike sometime - and that is more dependent on both geography and how vulnerable the populations are when they get hit with it.

If there are variant strains that are that close enough to it to react to the antibody tests that should manifest  in any antigenic drifting that has occurred.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Tabonga

[Reed Rothchild | 9,574]

25 minutes ago, Tabonga said:

I think we have to assume that it just took awhile to work its way to the nursing homes - information is surprisingly hard to track down but the last figures I saw were that roughly 20% of the casualties have been in nursing homes,

And given the apparently widespread mild (to the point of being non-existent) manifestation of symptoms recalling things in hindsight that might have been it makes perfect sense to me.

 

I mean, remove nursing homes from NYC and it's still a clusterfuck that rapidly fell apart.  We would have rabid explosions of infections in every metropolitan area if it had been spreading unchecked.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

1 hour ago, Tabonga said:

They have to spike sometime - and that is more dependent on both geography and how vulnerable the populations are when they get hit with it.

If there are variant strains that are that close enough to it to react to the antibody tests that should manifest  in any antigenic drifting that has occurred.

There is a difference between covid deaths simply "spiking' and covid-19 deaths being the LEADING CAUSE OF DEATH during the spike...

[Californication | 1,478]

They are starting to say that a bunch of the infected people are dying from blood clot's. So some of the doctors are treating patients with blood thinners early on.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Californication

[Tabonga | 2,328]

1 hour ago, arch_8ngel said:

There is a difference between covid deaths simply "spiking' and covid-19 deaths being the LEADING CAUSE OF DEATH during the spike...

Given the circumstances it is highly unlikely that the  two would  not be mutually exclusive for the duration*.   It seems inevitable that they will be the same at some point in time**.  It  would be great if they never were  the same wouldn't it?

*And in fact if the increased numbers of exposures in New York and other places is true this seems more likely.  Whatever the rate of fatalities turns out to be in the final analysis it stands to reason that the more exposures there are the more fatalities there will be.

**And it is pretty likely that that would not be a one time occurrence. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Tabonga

[Tabonga | 2,328]

2 hours ago, Reed Rothchild said:

I mean, remove nursing homes from NYC and it's still a clusterfuck that rapidly fell apart.  We would have rabid explosions of infections in every metropolitan area if it had been spreading unchecked.

Yeah - it is.  But is not in the least surprising since  New York City is highly congested and is probably the most mass transit dependent city in the country.  Perfect conditions for the wide spreading  of a virus such as this.

(This provides a lesson that should be heeded.  In Denver and many of the surrounding suburbs developers are busy little beavers (with the collusion of city councils and planning boards) who are working overtime to cram as many people in via apartments and condos  as possible in search of some weird perverted utopian dream of maximizing population density.  The current trick is to allow building these future tenements with either no parking built with them or very little -which invariably over taxes the already limited available parking in those neighborhoods.*  When you manage to pin one the responsible ninnnies down the pat answer is that people shouldn't really all have cars anyway (accompanied by a not very well hidden disdain for private houses) and can get by with the inadequate mass transit system here.   Which of course sets up the conditions for a worse crisis when the next easily transmitted disease appears (which it will - it is only a matter of time.))

*For  some reason you don't see this happening in the more exclusive neighborhoods (which usually have really large lots that would be ideal for putting up these architectural masterpieces,

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Tabonga

[Tulpa | 3,532]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-suggests-injection-disinfectant-beat-coronavirus-clean-lungs-n1191216

Oof.

[Tanooki | 4,950]

You did read the entire sentence by the cheeto man himself right?  The word 'like' was thrown in there among others (as in is there a way we can do something like that).  He did not literally say people should be taking shots of lysol(pick your brand) disinfectant.  Yet of course NBC right there jumps in claiming he's dangerous and should never tell people to basically chug drano as it'll kill you.  Shoddy ass reporting there when there's so much dumb crap far easier to play gotcha with.

Edited April 24, 2020 by Tanooki

[Reed Rothchild | 9,574]

I mean... any way you want to try and slice it, that's probably one of the dumbest things ever said by an American president.  

[Strange | 1,700]

I already didn’t have much faith in the president before this, but when he talked about using an antibiotic to tackle a virus that pretty much validated my skepticism of his medical advice and knowledge.

[Link | 2,726]

10 hours ago, Tabonga said:

2.7 million New Yorkers have been exposed to the virus.  Combined with the 16k deaths reported that works out to a .6% mortality rate

Exposed is not the same thing as infected though. Like, I live in a big city and still go to work. And commute by public transportation no less, when it’s raining and I don’t have time to walk. I have definitely been exposed. That doesn’t mean I am sick. Hopefully, I have and will not become a carrier. Selfishly I really hope I never become symptomatic. I do bad enough with a normal cold or  fever. This, if it doesn’t kill me would definitely make me wish it would.

I also want to point out, per cent is literally per 100. Do “you” know 100 people or more? (I’m pretty sure most Americans do.) When reading numbers, everyone should all consider them in that kind of context. No, we don’t all know 1000 people, but interacting with that many within one week is very common.

[fcgamer | 4,749]

3 hours ago, Reed Rothchild said:

I mean... any way you want to try and slice it, that's probably one of the dumbest things ever said by an American president.  

The guy's a business man. I don't know about any other business men here, but when I am with my team, we chat about things and then brainstorm ideas. He's brainstorming ideas, whether they are possible or not, that would be for the doctors and scientists to determine. 

[Tabonga | 2,328]

3 hours ago, Link said:

Exposed is not the same thing as infected though. Like, I live in a big city and still go to work. And commute by public transportation no less, when it’s raining and I don’t have time to walk. I have definitely been exposed. That doesn’t mean I am sick. Hopefully, I have and will not become a carrier. Selfishly I really hope I never become symptomatic. I do bad enough with a normal cold or  fever. This, if it doesn’t kill me would definitely make me wish it would.

I also want to point out, per cent is literally per 100. Do “you” know 100 people or more? (I’m pretty sure most Americans do.) When reading numbers, everyone should all consider them in that kind of context. No, we don’t all know 1000 people, but interacting with that many within one week is very common.

Since the test administered to generate these numbers was an antibody one it means that the exposure resulted in an infection even if no demonstrable symptoms manifested themselves.  (If one wants to quibble I suppose you could say they were exposed to the point of infection - seems a bit cumbersome though,)

One doesn't need to interact with 100 people (whether you know them or not is irrelevant) to have  to catch this* - if you only interact with one person who has it your chances shoot up drastically.  (And you actually don't even have to interact with them - they can leave you a little something extra that you touch.  Actually other than Mrs. Tobanga I currently interact (in physical proximity) with fewer than (probably since I don't keep a tally) 20 people a week,

*Statistics are funny things - while they are really useful for dealing with larger numbers they are often much less useful in very small numbers. So the odds of one individual being contagious that I come in contact with are much less important than if that individual is actually contagious. (Statistics (unless you are talking 0& or 100%) are in lot of ways meaningless when you get to the individual level.)

Edited April 24, 2020 by Tabonga

[Tabonga | 2,328]

5 hours ago, Tanooki said:

You did read the entire sentence by the cheeto man himself right?  The word 'like' was thrown in there among others (as in is there a way we can do something like that).  He did not literally say people should be taking shots of lysol(pick your brand) disinfectant.  Yet of course NBC right there jumps in claiming he's dangerous and should never tell people to basically chug drano as it'll kill you.  Shoddy ass reporting there when there's so much dumb crap far easier to play gotcha with.

He is merely describing something in layman's terms (which is maybe not surprising) - which obviously can be twisted if one so desires (and there seem to be a lot of people who have an obsessive desire to do so).  And how many medicines are orally taken (to do whatever the particular medicine is supposed to do) - I know I take a whole bunch on a daily basis.

His phrasing is a bit odd IMHO but what he is basically asking/saying is if we can  create a treatment or a medicine using this approach.  I don't think there is a molehill here let alone Mount Everest.

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by Tabonga

[Tabonga | 2,328]

5 hours ago, Reed Rothchild said:

I mean... any way you want to try and slice it, that's probably one of the dumbest things ever said by an American president.  

Heh - doesn't hold a candle to this little gem:

 

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

2 hours ago, fcgamer said:

The guy's a business man. I don't know about any other business men here, but when I am with my team, we chat about things and then brainstorm ideas. He's brainstorming ideas, whether they are possible or not, that would be for the doctors and scientists to determine. 

When you are the president you don't brainstorm dumb ideas during a daily press conference that is being watched around the world...

 

And as a businessman he should know better, since a CEO would be a total idiot to brainstorm ideas during any public event, as well.

Edited April 24, 2020 by arch_8ngel

[JamesRobot | 5,825]

38 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

2 hours ago, fcgamer said:

6 hours ago, Reed Rothchild said:

I mean... any way you want to try and slice it, that's probably one of the dumbest things ever said by an American president.  

The guy's a business man. I don't know about any other business men here, but when I am with my team, we chat about things and then brainstorm ideas. He's brainstorming ideas, whether they are possible or not, that would be for the doctors and scientists to determine. 

When you are the president you don't brainstorm dumb ideas during a daily press conference that is being watched around the world...

 

And as a businessman he should know better, since a CEO would be a total idiot to brainstorm ideas during any public event, as well.