Crime & Punishment -- USA Edition

[avatar! | 1,811]

7 minutes ago, FireHazard51 said:

I'll wait for a report that does prove a causation.  And IF it is so self evident then it would be easy to prove causation.  Homicides and police funding are not a 1 to 1 relationship like vehicle speed and pedestrian surviving a vehicle strike.  Just saying.... I'll wait for the statically data/study to prove that causation.

Here's one of many scholarly articles for ya that show... excuse me, "prove" (scientists by the way almost never use the word "prove", but anyway) why more police results in less crime. Article is titled

More COPS, Less Crime

https://www.princeton.edu/~smello/papers/cops.pdf

[FireHazard51 | 2,043]

25 minutes ago, avatar! said:

Here's one of many scholarly articles for ya that show... excuse me, "prove" (scientists by the way almost never use the word "prove", but anyway) why more police results in less crime. Article is titled

More COPS, Less Crime

https://www.princeton.edu/~smello/papers/cops.pdf

https://twitter.com/mellosteve2/status/1270813883004002306?lang=en

Author provide further summary that I think is of interest.  Number 9 is particular interest as that is the main point of "defund the police" to take those funds and put them into more effective policies.  Cincinnati is going to pilot such a program (not reducing police funds but creating "non-police" response teams to reduce police response to certain 911 calls)

https://www.citybeat.com/news/pilot-program-cincinnati-911-to-send-mental-health-pros-instead-of-police-for-some-non-violent-calls-13107670

I'd love to see more research that you have.  Mello commented on how research is kinda lacking on this topic so more research is needed.

I found this recent article on this specific topic of number of police officers and reduction in murders, https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/04/20/988769793/when-you-add-more-police-to-a-city-what-happens

Quote

Williams and his colleagues find adding a new police officer to a city prevents between 0.06 and 0.1 homicides, which means that the average city would need to hire between 10 and 17 new police officers to save one life a year.

Sounds like there is correlation but a weak one given 10-17 cops equals one murder.  In that same NPR article that would equate to about 1.3 to 2.2 million to fund those police.  In your Portland news article, there was a $15 million dollar reduction so lets say that's say there should be spike in murders between 7 to 11 over the previous year.  Portland had a 65% increase in murders (57 in 2019 to 89 in 2020) which is an increase of 32 murders.   Nearly triple what you would expect from the police force reduction.  But I'm not even sure they actually reduce the number of police officers since it was just their budget that changed.  Budge could of been cut from equipment, training, etc.  In fact I didn't see any statements of how many police were fired due to the funding reduction.  So if the number of police weren't reduced then I don't know why the murders jumped by 32.  Sound like there are other bigger factors at play.

[Californication | 1,477]

1 hour ago, FireHazard51 said:

https://twitter.com/mellosteve2/status/1270813883004002306?lang=en

Author provide further summary that I think is of interest.  Number 9 is particular interest as that is the main point of "defund the police" to take those funds and put them into more effective policies.  Cincinnati is going to pilot such a program (not reducing police funds but creating "non-police" response teams to reduce police response to certain 911 calls)

https://www.citybeat.com/news/pilot-program-cincinnati-911-to-send-mental-health-pros-instead-of-police-for-some-non-violent-calls-13107670

I'd love to see more research that you have.  Mello commented on how research is kinda lacking on this topic so more research is needed.

I found this recent article on this specific topic of number of police officers and reduction in murders, https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/04/20/988769793/when-you-add-more-police-to-a-city-what-happens

Sounds like there is correlation but a weak one given 10-17 cops equals one murder.  In that same NPR article that would equate to about 1.3 to 2.2 million to fund those police.  In your Portland news article, there was a $15 million dollar reduction so lets say that's say there should be spike in murders between 7 to 11 over the previous year.  Portland had a 65% increase in murders (57 in 2019 to 89 in 2020) which is an increase of 32 murders.   Nearly triple what you would expect from the police force reduction.  But I'm not even sure they actually reduce the number of police officers since it was just their budget that changed.  Budge could of been cut from equipment, training, etc.  In fact I didn't see any statements of how many police were fired due to the funding reduction.  So if the number of police weren't reduced then I don't know why the murders jumped by 32.  Sound like there are other bigger factors at play.

I didn't read the whole thing, it's a bit long, but if you go to the second to last paragraph in the conclusion on page 29 I see a huge red flag.  

It says, "I also find evidence that treatment effects are largest for cities most exposed to poor economic conditions during the great recession. Such a result is consistent with the theory that fiscal distress causes cities to reduce their police force..."

This is a huge leap and pretty dumb.

This statement makes the assumption the the rate at which people commiting crimes is constant and the only limiting factor is the police. From the same finding, you could also say that cities that were hit hardest by the great recessions had the most people become poor and a percentage of those people turn to crime increasing the crime rate

 

 

 

[avatar! | 1,811]

1 hour ago, FireHazard51 said:

Sound like there are other bigger factors at play.

For certain. I've read quite a bit about this and know some people who work in the field (political science). Well, bottom line is they don't really know. What I noted - more police less crime is a well understand and documented correlation. However, there are of course various factors. For instance, crime will not decrease if criminals keep getting released. Many have argued that bail reform and recidivists are responsible for surging crime the past few years. However, that also depends on which city since cities and states of course have different laws and regulations. Others have argued it's guns. However, that does not explain why would gun violence increase so dramatically now? At the end of the day, I suspect that scholars will argue about the origins and factors etc for many years to come...

ALL that said, I do feel that what I originally noted is correct. A huge decrease in the police budget will absolutely result in increased crime - along those lines, another reason why crime is rising is absolutely because many police officers feel they do not have the backing of leaders. Hence, huge number of police officers resigning. Also, with regards to Atlanta, it's asinine for leaders to just assume that a trend will change - namely, and regardless of the reasons, why would Atlanta's surging crime just decrease? The fact that leaders "hoped" for this shows they really had no concrete plans.

Anyway - let's hope for better days.

[Californication | 1,477]

20 minutes ago, avatar! said:

For certain. I've read quite a bit about this and know some people who work in the field (political science). Well, bottom line is they don't really know. What I noted - more police less crime is a well understand and documented correlation. However, there are of course various factors. For instance, crime will not decrease if criminals keep getting released. Many have argued that bail reform and recidivists are responsible for surging crime the past few years. However, that also depends on which city since cities and states of course have different laws and regulations. Others have argued it's guns. However, that does not explain why would gun violence increase so dramatically now? At the end of the day, I suspect that scholars will argue about the origins and factors etc for many years to come...

ALL that said, I do feel that what I originally noted is correct. A huge decrease in the police budget will absolutely result in increased crime - along those lines, another reason why crime is rising is absolutely because many police officers feel they do not have the backing of leaders. Hence, huge number of police officers resigning. Also, with regards to Atlanta, it's asinine for leaders to just assume that a trend will change - namely, and regardless of the reasons, why would Atlanta's surging crime just decrease? The fact that leaders "hoped" for this shows they really had no concrete plans.

Anyway - let's hope for better days.

More police equals less crime is not a correlation that had been well documented.  

[avatar! | 1,811]

Corruption at it's "finest"

[Tanooki | 4,933]

I saw the stories about that from both sides, those cops and that pos buyer need to rot.

[avatar! | 1,811]

Ex-counselor at GA youth-detention center who had sex with teen says, ‘I was not thinking’

https://www.macon.com/news/local/crime/article264216501.html

A former counselor at a youth-detention center here pleaded guilty Friday to having sexual intercourse and engaging in other carnal acts with an 18-year-old inmate she was counseling at the facility last year.

Upon pleading guilty Friday in Baldwin County Superior Court to four counts of sexual contact by an employee or agent in the first degree, Williamson was sentenced five years in prison followed by 20 more on probation.

Williamson sobbed at times while testifying Friday.

“She made a mistake,” Griffin said. “She made a horrible mistake. It’s the worst mistake that she’s made in her life. And, judge, I just don’t think that any of us should be defined by the worst thing that we’ve done. ... But as is the nature of criminal charges, this has become the thing that defines her. Her life as she knew it before this incident is completely over.”

Fuck her (NOT literally) and her shit defendant! This was NOT a mistake -- she knew exactly what she was doing. She abused her position of power. Who knows what damage she inflicted upon the 18-year old. At the end of the day, any fallout from this will be paid in full by taxpayers. I'm not saying she did not receive a fair sentence, but at the same time, it's a well documented fact that on average, men receive over a 60% increase in incarceration for similar crimes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentencing_disparity

 

[Tabonga | 2,317]

Witch uses spellbook to set car on fire:

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2022/08/pa-woman-used-spellbook-pages-to-set-car-on-fire-police.html

[avatar! | 1,811]

A Delaware gardener named Jeff Premar noticed someone was stealing his vegetables. So, he set up a security camera – and realized the culprit was a groundhog. "He would get right up into the camera and chomp on the veggies in your face like, 'Yeah I’m eating your veggies, what are you gonna do about it, Gardener Jeff?'" Premar told CBS News. Eventually, have gave up and built the groundhog, whom he named Chunk, a mini table to dine at.

well, apparently crime does sometimes pay

 

[Tabonga | 2,317]

3 hours ago, avatar! said:

A Delaware gardener named Jeff Premar noticed someone was stealing his vegetables. So, he set up a security camera – and realized the culprit was a groundhog. "He would get right up into the camera and chomp on the veggies in your face like, 'Yeah I’m eating your veggies, what are you gonna do about it, Gardener Jeff?'" Premar told CBS News. Eventually, have gave up and built the groundhog, whom he named Chunk, a mini table to dine at.

well, apparently crime does sometimes pay

 

Time for chuck roast!

[avatar! | 1,811]

Years ago, I always felt safe visiting NYC. I knew at least, that criminals if they tried anything would be quickly apprehended and dealt with! After all, you don't mess with NYC... or so I thought

[avatar! | 1,811]

Nirvana Wins 'Nevermind' Lawsuit Against Man Shown On Cover As Nude 4-Month-Old

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/spencer-elden-nirvana-lawsuit-nevermind_n_6313acf3e4b0682ad3d182d7

Grunge band Nirvana has won a controversial lawsuit brought by Spencer Elden, who appeared naked on the cover of the 1991 album “Nevermind” as a baby and later claimed that the photo amounted to child pornography, according to Reuters.

Elden’s initial suit cited “loss of enjoyment of life,” emotional distress and diminished earning capacity. The court had rejected that argument and said it would allow Elden to sue Nirvana time and time again — with Friday’s ruling blocking any additional filings.

“We are pleased that this meritless case has been brought to a speedy final conclusion,” Bert Deixler, a lawyer for the defendants, told Reuters.

Good! such nonsensical lawsuits do nothing more than clog up the courts. I have to admit, I chuckled a bit when I read "diminished earning capacity" - if anything, he's made some nice $$$ from that cover, since he has admitted to selling autographed copies etc.

[G-type | 2,481]

1 minute ago, avatar! said:

Grunge band Nirvana has won a controversial lawsuit brought by Spencer Elden, who appeared naked on the cover of the 1991 album “Nevermind” as a baby and later claimed that the photo amounted to child pornography, according to Reuters.

Elden’s initial suit cited “loss of enjoyment of life,” emotional distress and diminished earning capacity. The court had rejected that argument and said it would allow Elden to sue Nirvana time and time again — with Friday’s ruling blocking any additional filings.

“We are pleased that this meritless case has been brought to a speedy final conclusion,” Bert Deixler, a lawyer for the defendants, told Reuters.

Good! such nonsensical lawsuits do nothing more than clog up the courts. I have to admit, I chuckled a bit when I read "diminished earning capacity" - if anything, he's made some nice $$$ from that cover, since he has admitted to selling autographed copies etc.

I'm sure being associated with that image has its ups and downs. 

[avatar! | 1,811]

13 minutes ago, G-type said:

I'm sure being associated with that image has its ups and downs. 

Exactly what "downs" does it have? Clearly once he got a few years older there was not a single person who could recognize him as being the cover infant. Yet, he was making money from this, so personally I don't see any downs.

[G-type | 2,481]

I don't believe he would file a lawsuit if he felt great about it 100% of the time. Sure, this was a blatant example of an opportunistic money grab... he probably got talked into it by some lawyer after hearing him complain so much about it.

[Tabonga | 2,317]

Never take a gun to a truck fight:

https://www.motorious.com/articles/news/michigan-man-runs-carjacker/

[avatar! | 1,811]

18 hours ago, Tabonga said:

Never take a gun to a truck fight:

https://www.motorious.com/articles/news/michigan-man-runs-carjacker/

Wow! can't blame the victim for wanting not to get killed and turning the tables on the carjackers!

[Tanooki | 4,933]

Hey on the plus side, the carjacker got mowed down and un-alived.  Fuck em.  There's so much going wrong more and more these days with crime, but also cops that won't raise a finger.  My wife has been checking out a former member of Jackass who has turned to tracking down pedos and sex traffickers in the Denver area.  Apparently the PD there do not like him because he's been doing all the foot work, legally no less, to a lawyers level of approval, and they refuse to grab, book, detain, or charge many of them, even after being caught on camera, then admitting it on camera too.  When shit like that is allowed, and the cops turn a blind eye, it's up to the people to pull their own little mini-vigilante justice stunt to protect themselves at all costs.

[Tabonga | 2,317]

1 hour ago, Tanooki said:

Hey on the plus side, the carjacker got mowed down and un-alived.  Fuck em.  There's so much going wrong more and more these days with crime, but also cops that won't raise a finger.  My wife has been checking out a former member of Jackass who has turned to tracking down pedos and sex traffickers in the Denver area.  Apparently the PD there do not like him because he's been doing all the foot work, legally no less, to a lawyers level of approval, and they refuse to grab, book, detain, or charge many of them, even after being caught on camera, then admitting it on camera too.  When shit like that is allowed, and the cops turn a blind eye, it's up to the people to pull their own little mini-vigilante justice stunt to protect themselves at all costs.

To be fair it is usually not the police calling the shots - it rests on decisions made by the higher ups (particularly DAs who often seem to have a bizarre philosophy driving their decisions).  Colorado currently has the top rate of auto thefts among states in the country but the current trend is to let the thiefs (when nabbed) out on bail free bonds - even when they get caught on repeat offenses.  What lesson do they learn? - probably that it is neat to keep stealing vehicles.

[Tanooki | 4,933]

Well that would be true, corrupt DAs left and right playing off politics and feelings and NOT what they're legally obligated to due in the name of the actual law.  Read a story earlier about the bitch running the DA's office in Virginia where Loudon Co is, she was going after that guy who yelled at the school board over his raped daughter who dismissed and had him tossed.  She was trying to make an example of him for speaking out against the hive mind, so his lawyer went over her head, got it in front of a judge and got their entire office banned from prosecuting the case so they could have a fair court appearance.  That's how disgusting things are now where you attack parents questioning school boards who allow teenage rapists to get away with it (at the time.)  I guess in the case of Denver maybe some DAs or council citters are quiet members of NAMBLA or the Pedobear association, can't have those guys taken off the street then either.

[avatar! | 1,811]

Illinois Becomes The First State To Pass "The Purge" Law

https://travelnoire.com/illinois-becomes-the-first-state-to-pass-the-purge-law

Illinois is passing a law that some would say will make history. Illinois is looking to be the first state in the United States to abolish cash bail. And the consequences of passing such a law have many believing the state could mirror the horror movie “The Purge”. In the film, citizens were given 24 hours to commit all the crimes they wanted.

On January 1st of 2023 the ‘SAFE-T’ Act will commence in the state of Illinois. This act will get rid of the cash bail system in its entirety. The name SAFE-T is an acronym for ‘Safety, Accountability, Fairness, and Equity-Today’. Those that instated the act believe it will reduce arrests and limit those put away based on the crime.

There are 12 non-detainable offenses where the new law would end cash bail. The law includes second-degree murder, arson, drug-induced homicide, robbery, kidnapping, aggravated battery, burglary, intimidation, aggravated driving under the influence, fleeing and eluding, drug offenses, and threatening a public official.

I do think there needs to be reform within the criminal justice system. BUT, you could be a suspect in second-degree murder OR arson OR kidnapping OR all of the above and more... AND still be free because of the new law?
Here's my response to that:

Edited September 16, 2022 by avatar!

[avatar! | 1,811]

Here's your daily dose of bullshite!

Iowa teen who killed rapist sentenced

https://www.yahoo.com/news/iowa-teen-killed-rapist-sentenced-220318111.html

A teenage human trafficking victim who was initially charged with first-degree murder after she stabbed her accused rapist to death was sentenced Tuesday to five years of closely supervised probation (September 14)

She should receive a gold medal! Not freakin probation

AND...

17-year-old human trafficking victim ordered to pay her alleged rapist's family

https://news.yahoo.com/17-old-human-trafficking-victim-013742770.html

A judge is clearing the prison sentence for a 17-year-old Iowa girl who stabbed and killed her alleged rapist. NBC News’ Maya Eaglin reports on how the girl is still facing consequences including a $150,000 payment to the alleged rapist’s family.

Our justice system:

Edited September 16, 2022 by avatar!

[Tanooki | 4,933]

That's double disgusting.  I started reading into the comments since the slanted news doesn't want to cover important details.  She killed the guy in the bed they were sharing, the one that asshole raped her in.  She knew she couldn't take him out alive and could have been killed for the attempt, so to escape she had to stab him to death sleeping in self defense.  Seems quite reasonable to me, escape was not a sure option.  And backwater corn field Iowa has a stupid law that says the victim in a case like this needs to pay money to the dead victims family as restitution...seriously?!  I hope that one doesn't stick, neither really, but paying the family of a rapist who would have killed her had she tried to take him out when he was awake?  Oh hell no, hopefully someone sets up a gofundme for this girl and pays that shit off, and then some, a lot more, for taking that piece of crap out of the gene pool.  She may have got a GED at 15 in jail, but good luck getting a job because checking the 'commit a felony' box on any digital app is an instant erasing... she's fucked for life trying to find meaningful well paid work at most jobs.

Her only fault here, not having the smarts or will of it to take the body and vanish it and all evidence of there being one.  Cement shoes, drum of acid, shallow grave miles away from anywhere any sane person would go... something. >:\

[Tabonga | 2,317]

This is rather sobering if not outright scary:

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/mcdonalds-ceo-chicago-crime