Heritage Auctions Thread

[ExplodedHamster | 404]

Well, whomever got that AO GTA for PS2 just got the steal of the auction for the Sunday auction imo. I believe the WATA pop is 1, as Kenneth said he hadn't seen one in a long time. A few of the really old school collectors have them, but I haven't seen another one in years. Congrats to the buyer!

[Seth | 172]

I thought I would look into what Amermoe and GPX have been saying here about the three-figure sealed-and-graded retro video game market being significantly imperiled many, many years before WATA.

GPX wrote, "Sealed games (highly sought after ones) had already been going for mid-to-high four figures way before WATA even existed."

Amermoe wrote, "A good amount of the rare or very high condition and/or high demand games were well into the four figures I would say for the past ten years well before WATA."

In checking their math on this, I could have used Price Charting data from 2011 to 2015—as WATA was founded in 2017, and Amermoe and GPX were clear in saying that they were talking about "the past ten years" and "way before WATA" and "well before WATA", in other words 2011 to 2015—but I decided to make the task much, much harder for myself (i.e., in trying to prove them wrong) by looking at prices:

(1) well after the market-goosing founding of WATA:
(2) in the market with the highest prices (Heritage);
(3) with respect to the games hardest to get in "pristine" condition (to quote GPX's term), that being cardboard NES;
(4) looking at only "9.8" games (ignoring even 9.6 ones, which would be less expensive); and
(5) counting only WATA sales, which are (like-for-like) 25% to 75% higher than VGA sales.

In short, I tied both of my arms and both of my legs and both my eyelids behind my back before trying to make my point: that three-figure collecting has been vibrant and indeed dominant in this hobby all the way through, from the founding of VGA (not even just the founding of WATA) to the present day, and it is largely resellers looking to hype their wares who try to convince us that sealed-and-graded collecting has been primarily a four-figure hobby for a long time.

Mind you, my original point to GPX on this score was simply about "near-mint-range" games—so, 75+ to 90+ at VGA and 9.0/A and above at WATA—but I wanted to really tie my own hands and legs and eyelids behind my own back, as I said, to show how easy it is to make my point.

The information below can now be added to the research I did for this article at RETRO as to a different market—eBay—which research showed that, even in October 2021, years after the WATA market boom, sale prices broke down for sealed-and-graded NES games (all grades) in the following way:

2021

(June 10 to September 10)

$1 to $1,000: 67 (sales)
$1,001 to $2,000: 22
$2,001 to $3,000: 11
$3,001 to $4,000: 5
$4,001 to $5,000: 2
$5,001 to $6,000: 1
$6,001 to $7,000: 2
$7,001 to $8,000: 1
$8,001 to $9,000: 1
$9,001 to $10,000: 0
$10,000+: 1

But again, as GPX only wanted to look at the highest-end investors, speculators, and flippers—sorry, I mean "collectors"—I decided to play along and only consider 9.8 ("pristine") sealed and graded games.

So here's what all of 2019 looked like for 9.8-range WATA games at Heritage:

2019

Win, Lose, or Draw, NES, 9.8/A++, $120
Win, Lose, or Draw, NES, 9.8/A++, $138
Airwolf, NES, 9.8/A+, $264
Star Trek: 25th Anniversary Condition, NES, 9.8/A+, $336
Isolated Warrior, NES, 9.8/A++, $360
Shockwave, NES, 9.8/A++, $360
Taboo: The Sixth Sense, NES, 9.8/A+, $408
Legends of the Diamond, NES, 9.8/A+, $432
Impossible Mission II, NES, 9.8/A++, $444
Tiger-Heli, NES, 9.8/A, $480
The Mutant Virus: Crisis in a Computer World, NES, 9.8/A++, $528
Flight of the Intruder, NES, 9.8/A+, $576
The Mutant Virus: Crisis in a Computer World, NES, 9.8/A++, $630
Circus Caper, NES, 9.8/A+, $660
Dragon Spirit, NES, 9.8/A++, $750
Adventures of Lolo, NES, 9.8/A+, $870
Jackal, NES, 9.8/A++, $900
Street Fighter 2010: The Final Fight, NES, 9.8/A+, $900
Star Soldier, NES, 9.8/A++, $990
Alien 3, NES, 9.8/A++, $1,110
The Addams Family, NES, 9.8/A++, $1,140
The Great Waldo Search, NES, 9.8/A+, $1,200
Airwolf, NES, 9.8/A++, $1,320
Rampage, NES, 9.8/A++, $1,560
Bases Loaded, NES, 9.8/A++, $2,040
R.C. Pro Am, NES, 9.8/A++, $2,280
Donkey Kong Classics, NES, 9.8/A+, $2,400
Batman: Return of the Joker, NES, 9.8/A++, $2,880
Rampage, NES, 9.8/A, $2,880
Kung Fu, NES, 9.8/A+, $3,120
Pinball, NES, 9.8/A+, $3,120
Section Z, NES, 9.8/A+, $4,800
Bubble Bobble, NES, 9.8/A+, $7,200
Final Fantasy, NES, 9.8/A, $7,800
Super Mario Bros., NES, 9.8/A+, $19,200

SUMMARY: 19 three-figure 9.8 sales and 16 four-figure 9.8 sales.

So a three-figure collector, in 2019, working under the worst imaginable conditions for this sort of collecting—i.e., 9.8 ("pristine") games only; WATA-graded only; Heritage sales only; and all sales requiring, therefore, a 20% BP (which you don't have to pay on eBay or with many other auction sites)—would nevertheless come away the owner of "pristine" sealed and graded copies of the following key (rare and/or beloved) NES titles:

Adventures of Lolo
Circus Caper
Dragon Spirit: The New Legend
Isolated Warrior
Jackal
Star Soldier
Street Fighter 2010: The Final Fight
Tiger-Heli

That'd be a kick-ass three-figure haul of "pristine" games—and in the post-WATA era, no less!

In fact, the outlier Super Mario Bros. aside—it's always been an exception that confounds any rule we could devise—I'd argue that, in terms of game quality and rarity, the three-figure NES collector above would have done just about as well as the four-figure collector below (comparing the best eight games of each collector's hypothetical 2019 haul):

Bases Loaded
Batman: Return of the Joker
Bubble Bobble
Donkey Kong Classics
Final Fantasy
Kung Fu
R.C. Pro Am
Section Z

(If you use the hard-data Scarcity and Underrated rankings at RETRO, you can easily see which of the three-figure games match up with which of these four-figure games. Arguably the most significant finds in the bunch would be Adventures of Lolo, Dragon Spirit: The New Legend, Isolated Warrior, Jackal, and Street Fighter 2010: The Final Fight, though of course you'd also be pretty excited about Bubble Bobble, Final Fantasy, R.C. Pro Am, and to a lesser extent Kung Fu.)

My point here is that there is an ongoing effort, in some cases by good and well-intentioned people and in some cases not, to convince everyone that sealed-and-graded game collecting is a four-figure hobby and basically always was.

That is false.

It was not in 2019, and never was before then, predominantly a four-figure hobby. At any level of sealed and graded collecting.

Any level.

Even under the worst imaginable conditions for a three-figure collector—with everything favoring a person willing to spend $1,000 or more—the three-figure collector did about as well in 2019 as his four-figure collecting peer, and certainly saw more sales of "pristine" games in his range than theirs. (I'd note that all those claiming this is a four-figure hobby are resellers who would benefit from creating a four-figure market for their future sales, and all those saying this is still primarily a three-figure hobby are collectors who almost never sell games. Make of that what you will—or, really, must.)

And as I noted, if we were to look at all box and seal grades—if we evened the playing field—it would be a massacre data-wise, as per the RETRO 2021 data above, 60% of all sales would be three-figure sales, rather than (as in 2019 9.8 WATA sales at Heritage) "only" 54%. Note too that both GPX and Amercoe assured me the data would show a mass of "mid-to-high four figure" sales ($5,000 to $9,999). How many such sales can I find in the 113 2021 sales recorded at RETRO or the 35 2019 sales recorded here (148 sales in total)?

9.

9 out of 148.

S.

Edited November 1, 2021 by RETRO

[tidaldreams | 654]

Thanks HA, for putting the PS1 block when everyone's out trick-or-treating and taking all my money again

[inasuma | 1,203]

good lord @tidaldreams you crushed it. well done.

i snagged this bad boy, which sadly went kinda high because i got into a bidding war. I guess considering a vga 90 went for $1500 at the certifiedlink auction, this isn't so bad. lol

Edited November 1, 2021 by inasuma

[Amermoe | 150]

3 hours ago, RETRO said:

My point here is that there is an ongoing effort, in some cases by good and well-intentioned people and in some cases not, to convince everyone that sealed-and-graded game collecting is a four-figure hobby and basically always was.

Graded game collecting was not always a four figure hobby. No one is saying this, however it certainly became that more and more a few years after VGA started grading games and the very high condition (desirable) games started to dry up.

This is not an opinion, it is a fact. You need to have been around and participated at that time to see it, ask Rarebucky, Bronty, JoneBone or any of the long time sealed collectors from NintendoAge or SealedGameHeaven, you'll find your answers there.

I think the point you're missing is that you note many NES games that have for the longest time been very low demand that just now have been inflated, and use that as your reference point. I am referring to "High Demand" games, rare games, or extremely significant games (Basically the top 10% of the library). Those games were available 10 years ago, in good condition, and sealed collectors fought tooth and nail to obtain them, often outbidding and backdooring each other - and in some cases forming alliances or gentleman rules (Because the supply of good condition copies was very low). At that time anyone was able to get a copy if that was all they were after. The wars were fought for the best possible copy available attainable - that is where you saw the 4-figure premium.

Let me ask you, have ever seen a VGA95 Musha, or VGA90+ Hagane, or a VGA90 Panzer Dragoon Saga, or Bronty's (now infamous) VGA85+ sticker seal Mario Bros, or a VGA85+ NTSC Stadium Events, or a VGA90 Longbox RE1, or a VGA85+ Magical Chase, I could go on and on, how much do you think those caliber of items were going for 10 years ago, which are now going in the six or seven figures? Hell, Bucky wanted $20K for his VGA85+ Little Samson back in 2015, and of course no one took the bait.

The top 10% (high condition, rare or in-demand) of items were well into the 4 figures, everything else was in the 3 figures.

Many of these sales will not be found on PriceCharting as it does not record all the data or accurate data (even though many were through ebay). Many more sales were private, or through forums.

I personally bought many of my SNES sealed collection around the 2015 mark, and I thought I was insane as it was way too late (and had regrets of overpaying) at that time because almost all were already in the 4 figure mark and almost all were in average condition (i.e. high silver or low gold). My peers had paid similar prices but all had gold copies while I was stuck with mostly silver. Many of these same SNES games today however, on the open market would now be valued in the 5 figure mark. For example, I paid $1200 for Chrono Trigger, and now it's valued at $20K+, paid $2000 for FFIII, and now its $15K+, all around the 2015-2016 mark, paid $1000 for a raw FFVII (in great condition), and now its 5x that.

I was offered a VGA90+ FFVII in 2017 for $5k, which I decided to pass (too much at the time - would've paid $3k) even though it now would've been a $15k+ item. The population on a 90+ is incredibly low, much more than people realize, and those who have them will never let them go, especially for Y-Fold true first party prints.

It's much harder to explain everything that happened behind the scenes to get to where we are at today. You had to have been there and participated. There's a lot of shit going that people don't realize, and that old knowledge is being used to manipulate the current market to suit many people's various interests. 

For the record, I do not like this current market climate. I am an old collector and I feel completely alien in the current environment, regardless of the fact that my collection is now worth money. I seldom participate in it and when I do, it's on a very surface level. I think natural progression should still have stayed in the 3-4 figure range and gradually climbed organically in the 5 figures, with very few exceptions. Most of the 5 and 6 and beyond figure sales are completely inflated by speculators and gamblers (not investors), and once the well runs dry the market will return back to the collectors.

Edited November 1, 2021 by Amermoe

[GPX | 1,373]

12 hours ago, RETRO said:

I thought I would look into what Amermoe and GPX have been saying here about the three-figure sealed-and-graded retro video game market being significantly imperiled many, many years before WATA.

GPX wrote, "Sealed games (highly sought after ones) had already been going for mid-to-high four figures way before WATA even existed."

Amermoe wrote, "A good amount of the rare or very high condition and/or high demand games were well into the four figures I would say for the past ten years well before WATA."

In checking their math on this, I could have used Price Charting data from 2011 to 2015—as WATA was founded in 2017, and Amermoe and GPX were clear in saying that they were talking about "the past ten years" and "way before WATA" and "well before WATA", in other words 2011 to 2015—but I decided to make the task much, much harder for myself (i.e., in trying to prove them wrong) by looking at prices:

(1) well after the market-goosing founding of WATA:
(2) in the market with the highest prices (Heritage);
(3) with respect to the games hardest to get in "pristine" condition (to quote GPX's term), that being cardboard NES;
(4) looking at only "9.8" games (ignoring even 9.6 ones, which would be less expensive); and
(5) counting only WATA sales, which are (like-for-like) 25% to 75% higher than VGA sales.

In short, I tied both of my arms and both of my legs and both my eyelids behind my back before trying to make my point: that three-figure collecting has been vibrant and indeed dominant in this hobby all the way through, from the founding of VGA (not even just the founding of WATA) to the present day, and it is largely resellers looking to hype their wares who try to convince us that sealed-and-graded collecting has been primarily a four-figure hobby for a long time.

Mind you, my original point to GPX on this score was simply about "near-mint-range" games—so, 75+ to 90+ at VGA and 9.0/A and above at WATA—but I wanted to really tie my own hands and legs and eyelids behind my own back, as I said, to show how easy it is to make my point.

The information below can now be added to the research I did for this article at RETRO as to a different market—eBay—which research showed that, even in October 2021, years after the WATA market boom, sale prices broke down for sealed-and-graded NES games (all grades) in the following way:

2021

(June 10 to September 10)

$1 to $1,000: 67 (sales)
$1,001 to $2,000: 22
$2,001 to $3,000: 11
$3,001 to $4,000: 5
$4,001 to $5,000: 2
$5,001 to $6,000: 1
$6,001 to $7,000: 2
$7,001 to $8,000: 1
$8,001 to $9,000: 1
$9,001 to $10,000: 0
$10,000+: 1

But again, as GPX only wanted to look at the highest-end investors, speculators, and flippers—sorry, I mean "collectors"—I decided to play along and only consider 9.8 ("pristine") sealed and graded games.

So here's what all of 2019 looked like for 9.8-range WATA games at Heritage:

2019

Win, Lose, or Draw, NES, 9.8/A++, $120
Win, Lose, or Draw, NES, 9.8/A++, $138
Airwolf, NES, 9.8/A+, $264
Star Trek: 25th Anniversary Condition, NES, 9.8/A+, $336
Isolated Warrior, NES, 9.8/A++, $360
Shockwave, NES, 9.8/A++, $360
Taboo: The Sixth Sense, NES, 9.8/A+, $408
Legends of the Diamond, NES, 9.8/A+, $432
Impossible Mission II, NES, 9.8/A++, $444
Tiger-Heli, NES, 9.8/A, $480
The Mutant Virus: Crisis in a Computer World, NES, 9.8/A++, $528
Flight of the Intruder, NES, 9.8/A+, $576
The Mutant Virus: Crisis in a Computer World, NES, 9.8/A++, $630
Circus Caper, NES, 9.8/A+, $660
Dragon Spirit, NES, 9.8/A++, $750
Adventures of Lolo, NES, 9.8/A+, $870
Jackal, NES, 9.8/A++, $900
Street Fighter 2010: The Final Fight, NES, 9.8/A+, $900
Star Soldier, NES, 9.8/A++, $990
Alien 3, NES, 9.8/A++, $1,110
The Addams Family, NES, 9.8/A++, $1,140
The Great Waldo Search, NES, 9.8/A+, $1,200
Airwolf, NES, 9.8/A++, $1,320
Rampage, NES, 9.8/A++, $1,560
Bases Loaded, NES, 9.8/A++, $2,040
R.C. Pro Am, NES, 9.8/A++, $2,280
Donkey Kong Classics, NES, 9.8/A+, $2,400
Batman: Return of the Joker, NES, 9.8/A++, $2,880
Rampage, NES, 9.8/A, $2,880
Kung Fu, NES, 9.8/A+, $3,120
Pinball, NES, 9.8/A+, $3,120
Section Z, NES, 9.8/A+, $4,800
Bubble Bobble, NES, 9.8/A+, $7,200
Final Fantasy, NES, 9.8/A, $7,800
Super Mario Bros., NES, 9.8/A+, $19,200

SUMMARY: 19 three-figure 9.8 sales and 16 four-figure 9.8 sales.

So a three-figure collector, in 2019, working under the worst imaginable conditions for this sort of collecting—i.e., 9.8 ("pristine") games only; WATA-graded only; Heritage sales only; and all sales requiring, therefore, a 20% BP (which you don't have to pay on eBay or with many other auction sites)—would nevertheless come away the owner of "pristine" sealed and graded copies of the following key (rare and/or beloved) NES titles:

Adventures of Lolo
Circus Caper
Dragon Spirit: The New Legend
Isolated Warrior
Jackal
Star Soldier
Street Fighter 2010: The Final Fight
Tiger-Heli

That'd be a kick-ass three-figure haul of "pristine" games—and in the post-WATA era, no less!

In fact, the outlier Super Mario Bros. aside—it's always been an exception that confounds any rule we could devise—I'd argue that, in terms of game quality and rarity, the three-figure NES collector above would have done just about as well as the four-figure collector below (comparing the best eight games of each collector's hypothetical 2019 haul):

Bases Loaded
Batman: Return of the Joker
Bubble Bobble
Donkey Kong Classics
Final Fantasy
Kung Fu
R.C. Pro Am
Section Z

(If you use the hard-data Scarcity and Underrated rankings at RETRO, you can easily see which of the three-figure games match up with which of these four-figure games. Arguably the most significant finds in the bunch would be Adventures of Lolo, Dragon Spirit: The New Legend, Isolated Warrior, Jackal, and Street Fighter 2010: The Final Fight, though of course you'd also be pretty excited about Bubble Bobble, Final Fantasy, R.C. Pro Am, and to a lesser extent Kung Fu.)

My point here is that there is an ongoing effort, in some cases by good and well-intentioned people and in some cases not, to convince everyone that sealed-and-graded game collecting is a four-figure hobby and basically always was.

That is false.

It was not in 2019, and never was before then, predominantly a four-figure hobby. At any level of sealed and graded collecting.

Any level.

Even under the worst imaginable conditions for a three-figure collector—with everything favoring a person willing to spend $1,000 or more—the three-figure collector did about as well in 2019 as his four-figure collecting peer, and certainly saw more sales of "pristine" games in his range than theirs. (I'd note that all those claiming this is a four-figure hobby are resellers who would benefit from creating a four-figure market for their future sales, and all those saying this is still primarily a three-figure hobby are collectors who almost never sell games. Make of that what you will—or, really, must.)

And as I noted, if we were to look at all box and seal grades—if we evened the playing field—it would be a massacre data-wise, as per the RETRO 2021 data above, 60% of all sales would be three-figure sales, rather than (as in 2019 9.8 WATA sales at Heritage) "only" 54%. Note too that both GPX and Amercoe assured me the data would show a mass of "mid-to-high four figure" sales ($5,000 to $9,999). How many such sales can I find in the 113 2021 sales recorded at RETRO or the 35 2019 sales recorded here (148 sales in total)?

9.

9 out of 148.

S.

I admire your level of dedication on doing research on this field of hobby. Though I do believe there is a certain level of bias going on regarding your conclusion. You are mainly looking at raw data to form your thesis, but forget to ask the people who have participated in this hobby for 5-10 years.

I would say a lot of the transactions of the high-end sealed/graded games were through forums (NA/SGH etc). Hardcore collectors back then who wanted the quality items often purchased/traded with other sealed collectors. Overall the high-ceiling prices were mostly sold in private, and the casual collectors would be none-the-wiser. 

Again, me and Amermoe are not ones who are saying that all sealed games were 4 figures or more 10 years ago. We are merely talking the natural trends of how much they can go for historically from our past observations.

 

[Seth | 172]

Amermoe and GPX, I think the only thing we disagree on is whether the segment of the sealed-and-graded market you discuss is 10% of all titles or 2%.

The NES has about 850 games, and it is not the case that 85 of those were being sold for the "mid- to high four figures" from 2011 to 2015. I'd also note that you are speaking of what rapacious sellers were asking for—unsuccessfully—not what folks were actually paying to get maybe 10 to 15 NES titles rather than 85. I don't doubt that there have always been sellers willing to unscrupulously ask for mid- to high four figures—or more—for games worth less than half that, and I don't doubt that there have been buyers who don't do their research and aren't patient who have on vanishingly rare occasion paid those prices. I also have seen the tactic many times before, not that it's ill-intentioned but just over-common, that old-time four-figure collectors assure us that if we could just see all their private, double-top-secret sales, we'd know the truth.

No. You don't get to use private sales whose details you won't disclose and whose parties are anonymous as evidence—of anything. Public data is all anyone can or should go on, and if you want anyone to credit what you're saying, those sales should happen in broad daylight and not be mere rumor and innuendo and anecdote and misty-eyed reflection. This is a market, not a Freemason's lodge.

It's time for the focus of this hobby turn to the overwhelming majority of collectors, who were and are still three-figure collectors. They don't hold Heritage auction viewing parties or participate in fascistically policed Facebook groups for high-end resellers. They don't care how foreign millionaires spend their money because why should they. We continue to obsess over the high prices paid by certain individuals at certain auctions (i.e., Heritage) seemingly only because it benefits sellers that we obsess in this way. It normalizes abnormal sales.

If you look at a VGA-focused, non-Heritage auction like the recent CertifiedLink auction, you see that games mostly go for three figures—and I mean good ones. Not the 2% you're speaking of, but near-mint high-end titles nonetheless. As a three-figure buyer, I bought two top titles in the recent CertifiedLink auction and two titles in the Heritage Signature Auction. I don't post my buys because I'm not into that (I've only done it once or twice), but sometimes I regret that because what we get instead are people spending on one game what I would spend for four or five high-end games and then getting lauded for it. All of it is implicitly, if inadvertently, market manipulation that benefits sellers by telling us that mid-four-figure sales are the norm. They are not.

Up until the pandemic this was a three-figure hobby, with a 2% high end that was understandably and perhaps even justifiably in the four figures. Even now, only abject fools are paying five or six or seven figures; they should be either ignored or ridiculed. Pay $5,000 for a game if you like, but if you're telling everyone you got a bargain you're only speaking to the fraction of the market that is four-figures and up—a fraction that needs to decline if this hobby is ever going to take off and become something the average person of reasonable means would want to or feel able to do. Right now this is a market that it beyond volatile—it is unreliable, unstable, and insensible—and anyone throwing thousands and thousands of dollars into it per game is doing so because they're wealthy, not wise.

S.

Edited November 1, 2021 by RETRO

[GPX | 1,373]

5 hours ago, RETRO said:

Amermoe and GPX, I think the only thing we disagree on is whether the segment of the sealed-and-graded market you discuss is 10% of all titles or 2%.

The NES has about 850 games, and it is not the case that 85 of those were being sold for the "mid- to high four figures" from 2011 to 2015. I'd also note that you are speaking of what rapacious sellers were asking for—unsuccessfully—not what folks were actually paying to get maybe 10 to 15 NES titles rather than 85. I don't doubt that there have always been sellers willing to unscrupulously ask for mid- to high four figures—or more—for games worth less than half that, and I don't doubt that there have been buyers who don't do their research and aren't patient who have on vanishingly rare occasion paid those prices. I also have seen the tactic many times before, not that it's ill-intentioned but just over-common, that old-time four-figure collectors assure us that if we could just see all their private, double-top-secret sales, we'd know the truth.

No. You don't get to use private sales whose details you won't disclose and whose parties are anonymous as evidence—of anything. Public data is all anyone can or should go on, and if you want anyone to credit what you're saying, those sales should happen in broad daylight and not be mere rumor and innuendo and anecdote and misty-eyed reflection. This is a market, not a Freemason's lodge.

It's time for the focus of this hobby turn to the overwhelming majority of collectors, who were and are still three-figure collectors. They don't hold Heritage auction viewing parties or participate in fascistically policed Facebook groups for high-end resellers. They don't care how foreign millionaires spend their money because why should they. We continue to obsess over the high prices paid by certain individuals at certain auctions (i.e., Heritage) seemingly only because it benefits sellers that we obsess in this way. It normalizes abnormal sales.

If you look at a VGA-focused, non-Heritage auction like the recent CertifiedLink auction, you see that games mostly go for three figures—and I mean good ones. Not the 2% you're speaking of, but near-mint high-end titles nonetheless. As a three-figure buyer, I bought two top titles in the recent CertifiedLink auction and two titles in the Heritage Signature Auction. I don't post my buys because I'm not into that (I've only done it once or twice), but sometimes I regret that because what we get instead are people spending on one game what I would spend for four or five high-end games and then getting lauded for it. All of it is implicitly, if inadvertently, market manipulation that benefits sellers by telling us that mid-four-figure sales are the norm. They are not.

Up until the pandemic this was a three-figure hobby, with a 2% high end that was understandably and perhaps even justifiably in the four figures. Even now, only abject fools are paying five or six or seven figures; they should be either ignored or ridiculed. Pay $5,000 for a game if you like, but if you're telling everyone you got a bargain you're only speaking to the fraction of the market that is four-figures and up—a fraction that needs to decline if this hobby is ever going to take off and become something the average person of reasonable means would want to or feel able to do. Right now this is a market that it beyond volatile—it is unreliable, unstable, and insensible—and anyone throwing thousands and thousands of dollars into it per game is doing so because they're wealthy, not wise.

S.

We are talking in tangents again. Noone here is arguing that the main proportion of sealed collecting is around the 3 figures. But despite the much less number of buyers in the 4-5 figures in prior years, these are the types that represent the majority of the spending on sealed/graded games. These are also the group of people likely responsible for the natural inflation of the market. Remembering that natural inflation in prices is a natural organic phenomena in any field of collecting, not necessarily from market manipulation. However, just because I believe prices will grow organically, doesn’t mean I don’t agree with you that there is a certain level of bad smell in the air. 

Take coins for example, the argument that 99% of people who own coins that are worth their actual numerical values, has absolutely no bearing on the 1% of the group who are willing to spend a million bucks over a $1 coin. 

Please do not interpret my recent posts as “we are the big spenders and we rule, you suck”. It has nothing to do with what kind of a human you are, but merely to do with how much someone is willing to spend for their passion of the hobby. The current market is all about the exploitation of that passion a lot of us here all share, regardless of your spending budget.

 

[Seth | 172]

1 hour ago, GPX said:

We are talking in tangents again. Noone here is arguing that the main proportion of sealed collecting is around the 3 figures. But despite the much less number of buyers in the 4-5 figures in prior years, these are the types that represent the majority of the spending on sealed/graded games. These are also the group of people likely responsible for the natural inflation of the market. Remembering that natural inflation in prices is a natural organic phenomena in any field of collecting, not necessarily from market manipulation. However, just because I believe prices will grow organically, doesn’t mean I don’t agree with you that there is a certain level of bad smell in the air. 

Take coins for example, the argument that 99% of people who own coins that are worth their actual numerical values, has absolutely no bearing on the 1% of the group who are willing to spend a million bucks over a $1 coin. 

Please do not interpret my recent posts as “we are the big spenders and we rule, you suck”. It has nothing to do with what kind of a human you are, but merely to do with how much someone is willing to spend for their passion of the hobby. The current market is all about the exploitation of that passion a lot of us here all share, regardless of your spending budget.

 

I certainly agree that if we switch the analysis to total dollars spent—though I don't know why we would, other than America's fixation with the rich and their habits—we would say that the high-end buyers (who are mostly investors, speculators, or flippers, with the best-case scenario being a 10% collector who sells 90% of what they buy and holds back one in ten titles) do make up much of the market.

But I'm more interested in people than composite sales volume, and more interested in culture than capitalism. By which I mean, I actually don't care how much anyone wants to spend on a video game—it's a free country, and I like that—but I think it's a separate matter to make the habits of an abnormal collector the normalized culture of a hobby. That costs real folks real dollars, because it artificially inflates prices even if no one (or not everyone) means for that to be the result.

I should also say that none of this comes from envy, not just because I do fine financially but because of a reason I'm ashamed of—that the emotion I feel toward high-end collectors is more akin to pity than scorn, an ignoble emotion in this context, I freely admit. But if you knew which 50+ sealed-and-graded video games I currently own, and the sort of (say) common-ass Pokémon GB game my entire collection cost me less than to get, you'd understand why envy is definitely not where I'm coming from. If anything, I'd love for high-end collectors to wise up and do better research, as it would make games more affordable, be less embarrassing to all of us who are sealed-and-graded collectors and have to see the daily memes from those who aren't, and (in the bargain) keep me from reading any more cringey look-what-I-managed-to-get-for-$9,000 posts.

I'm like, yeah, I know what you got for $9,000—and for less than that I can get 16 sealed-and-graded games that would surprise the hell out of you with their condition, resale value, historical importance, and popularity among gamers.

I hope folks will feel I put my money where my mouth is on this stuff. The reason the research at RETRO, which is worth hundreds or even thousands of dollars to any high-end retro video game collector, is being given away for $5 is because I want people to have it and only ask for the minimum acknowledgment of my labor. But I actually have been working pretty hard to make good research readily accessible to every sealed-and-graded video game collector who has somewhere in their living room couch cushion gap a bill with Abraham Lincoln's face on it.

Edited November 1, 2021 by RETRO

[AnimalHouse | 117]

Ouch. Who Framed Roger Rabbit Wata 9.8 A+ value plummeted. Kudos to the winner. The winner of SMB2 Wata 9.2 A+ is trying to double his money on ebay. Didn't realize a quick turnaround from Heritage to ebay was possible on a high five figure game.

 

 

[tidaldreams | 654]

6 minutes ago, AnimalHouse said:

Ouch. Who Framed Roger Rabbit Wata 9.8 A+ value plummeted. Kudos to the winner. The winner of SMB2 Wata 9.2 A+ is trying to double his money on ebay. Didn't realize a quick turnaround from Heritage to ebay was possible on a high five figure game.

 

 

These high 5-figure are probably a PITA/impossible to sell on ebay. I personally wouldn't go past 4 figures.

I think this person also bought the 9.4 A Mario Bros? Must have a lot of capital

Edited November 2, 2021 by tidaldreams

[Amermoe | 150]

2 hours ago, RETRO said:

I'm like, yeah, I know what you got for $9,000—and for less than that I can get 16 sealed-and-graded games that would surprise the hell out of you with their condition, resale value, historical importance, and popularity among gamers.

I hope folks will feel I put my money where my mouth is on this stuff. The reason the research at RETRO, which is worth hundreds or even thousands of dollars to any high-end retro video game collector, is being given away for $5 is because I want people to have it and only ask for the minimum acknowledgment of my labor. But I actually have been working pretty hard to make good research readily accessible to every sealed-and-graded video game collector who has somewhere in their living room couch cushion gap a bill with Abraham Lincoln's face on it.

I'm all for this, and completely salute your efforts. Believe me no wants to pay thousands on this hobby (I sure don't). There will inevitably be people who will end up losing a lot of money in this market due to misinformation, and lack of knowledge. Which is why you see so much volatility and price corrections happening on a daily rate. 

I wish I was able to obtain the games I wanted in the 3 figure mark back in 2016, believe me I tried and I was patient. If you could find any record of a Chrono Trigger in gold grade for SNES for less than $1000 back in that time, I would  love to see it (chances are that would be like finding a unicorn in a desert). 

Another thing you should keep in mind, not every system had X% of their library hit the 4 digits. The biggest were NES and SNES, PS1 I would say only a handful really (10-20 games, if  that). Saturn only had the top 5 hit those numbers, Sega CD even less, probably only Keio and Snatcher, Genesis not sure exactly, I know there were a handful but not that many, to be honest Genesis was shunned by sealed collectors for a very long time.

But if I take SNES for example, because that is what I am most familiar with, here are just a few titles that consistently hit the 4-figure mark 5 or so years ago in sealed/graded high condition. I won't even count NA or SGH sales, which are plenty, I'll just use public ebay records from GVN or Pricecharting;

3 Ninjas Kick Back ($3,483.00 - 2015-02-07 - ebay)
Aero Fighters ($3,900.00 - 2015-02-21  ebay)    
Castlevania: Dracula X ($1,705.00 - 2015-04-20 - ebay)
Chrono Trigger ($2,649.99 - 2012-07-21 - ebay)    
E.V.O.: Search for Eden ($2,550.00 - 2015-02-21 - ebay)
EarthBound ($1,999.99 - 2011-02-12 - ebay)
Exertainment Mountain Bike Rally/Speed ($4,250.00 - 2015-02-21 - ebay) 
Final Fantasy II ($1,725.00 - 2015-05-05 - ebay)
Final Fantasy III ($2,499.94 - 2015-04-30 - ebay)
Hagane: The Final Conflict ($1,999.99 -  2013-09-26 - ebay)
Harvest Moon ($1,600.00 - 2015-02-04 - ebay)
Incantation ($1,136.00 - 2015-03-29 - ebay)
Legend of Zelda: A Link To the Past ($1,250.00 - 2017-03-19 - ebay)
Mega Man 7 $2,025.00 - 2014-03-06 - ebay)
Mega Man X (Made in Japan) ($2,899.99 - 2017-02-05 - ebay)
Mega Man X2 ($1,362.66 - 2012-02-25 - ebay) 
Mega Man X3 ($4,999.99 - 2015-02-21 - ebay)
Metal Warriors ($2,499.95 - 2012-01-18 - ebay)
Ninja Gaiden Trilogy ($1,999.99 - 2016-03-05 - ebay)
Ninja Warriors ($1,236.11 - 2016-10-24 - ebay)
Ogre Battle: March of the Black Queen ($2,200.00 - 2017-09-03 - ebay)
Pocky & Rocky ($1,691.66 - 2015-12-28 - ebay)
Pocky & Rocky 2 ($1,125.00 - 2015-11-16 - ebay)
Secret of Mana ($3,999.95 - 2012-05-28 - ebay)
Super Copa ($4,049.00 - 2012-06-16 - ebay)
Super Turrican 2 ($1,425.43 - 2016-08-06 - ebay)
Wild Guns ($1,040.00 - 2014-08-20 - ebay)

Edited November 2, 2021 by Amermoe

[Seth | 172]

10 minutes ago, AnimalHouse said:

Ouch. Who Framed Roger Rabbit Wata 9.8 A+ value plummeted. Kudos to the winner. The winner of SMB2 Wata 9.2 A+ is trying to double his money on ebay. Didn't realize a quick turnaround from Heritage to ebay was possible on a high five figure game.

 

 

According to RETRO data—part of a new type of market analysis I'm working on and plan to publish at RETRO soon—77.8% of sealed-and-graded copies of Who Framed Roger Rabbit? are in near-mint or better condition, putting the title at #39 among all NES games with 10 or more public-market sales since January 1, 2019.

With a condition premium so wrecked (and wretched), and with the game being so insanely common (#30 Most Common on NES of 810 titles) and disliked (#203 Most Underrated on NES, which equates to 2 votes out of 105 industry experts catalogued by RETRO), I wouldn't touch that title for $449—even in near-mint condition; I'm serious—let alone $7,800.

But I'm a data hound, so I research things (and publish my research) in a way I suspect a person spending that type of coin on Who Framed Roger Rabbit? does not.

[Seth | 172]

4 minutes ago, Amermoe said:

I'm all for this, and completely salute your efforts. Believe me no wants to pay thousands on this hobby (I sure don't). There will inevitably be people who will end up losing a lot of money in this market due to misinformation, and lack of knowledge. Which is why you see so much volatility and price corrections happening on a daily rate. 

I wish I was able to obtain the games I wanted in the 3 figure mark back in 2016, believe me I tried and I was patient. If you could find any record of a Chrono Trigger in gold grade for SNES for less than $1000 back in that time, I would  love to see it (chances are that would be like finding a unicorn in a desert). 

Another thing you should keep in mind, not every system had X% of their library hit the 4 digits. The biggest were NES and SNES, PS1 I would say only a handful really (10-20 games, if  that). Saturn only had the top 5 hit those numbers, Sega CD even less, probably only Keio and Snatcher, Genesis not sure exactly, I know there were a handful but not that many, to be honest Genesis was shunned by sealed collectors for a very long time.

But if I take SNES for example, because that is what I am most familiar with, here are just a few titles that consistently hit the 4-figure mark 5 or so years ago in sealed/graded high condition. I won't even count NA or SGH sales, which are plenty, I'll just use public ebay records from GVN or Pricecharting;

3 Ninjas Kick Back ($3,483.00 - 2015-02-07 - ebay)
Aero Fighters ($3,900.00 - 2015-02-21  ebay)    
Castlevania: Dracula X ($1,705.00 - 2015-04-20 - ebay)
Chrono Trigger ($2,649.99 - 2012-07-21 - ebay)    
E.V.O.: Search for Eden ($2,550.00 - 2015-02-21 - ebay)
EarthBound ($1,999.99 - 2011-02-12 - ebay)
Exertainment Mountain Bike Rally/Speed ($4,250.00 - 2015-02-21 - ebay) 
Final Fantasy II ($1,725.00 - 2015-05-05 - ebay)
Final Fantasy III ($2,499.94 - 2015-04-30 - ebay)
Hagane: The Final Conflict ($1,999.99 -  2013-09-26 - ebay)
Harvest Moon ($1,600.00 - 2015-02-04 - ebay)
Incantation ($1,136.00 - 2015-03-29 - ebay)
Legend of Zelda: A Link To the Past ($1,250.00 - 2017-03-19 - ebay)
Mega Man 7 $2,025.00 - 2014-03-06 - ebay)
Mega Man X (Made in Japan) ($2,899.99 - 2017-02-05 - ebay)
Mega Man X2 ($1,362.66 - 2012-02-25 - ebay) 
Mega Man X3 ($4,999.99 - 2015-02-21 - ebay)
Metal Warriors ($2,499.95 - 2012-01-18 - ebay)
Ninja Gaiden Trilogy ($1,999.99 - 2016-03-05 - ebay)
Ninja Warriors ($1,236.11 - 2016-10-24 - ebay)
Ogre Battle: March of the Black Queen ($2,200.00 - 2017-09-03 - ebay)
Pocky & Rocky ($1,691.66 - 2015-12-28 - ebay)
Pocky & Rocky 2 ($1,125.00 - 2015-11-16 - ebay)
Secret of Mana ($3,999.95 - 2012-05-28 - ebay)
Super Copa ($4,049.00 - 2012-06-16 - ebay)
Super Turrican 2 ($1,425.43 - 2016-08-06 - ebay)
Wild Guns ($1,040.00 - 2014-08-20 - ebay)

I appreciate this data very much, as my research focuses on Intellivision, Atari 2600, and NES games. I haven't moved on to SNES hard data because a cursory glance, but that's probably coming next at RETRO.

I should underscore that I don't doubt you at all when you say there were many four-figure sales from 2011 to 2015, though I'd note that (a) the sales you mentioned above do weight heavily toward 2015, with 67% of your entries between 2011 and 2015 being from 2015); (b) you've included six ineligible sales (i.e., sales, from 2016 and 2017, which does not meet the "way before WATA" condition you set in your initial post, given that WATA was founded in mid-2017); and (c) of the 27 sales you listed, only 3 (11%) were $4,000 or above, a level which would be required to meet the standard set earlier in this conversation ("mid- to high-four-figure [sales]"). None of the 27 sales you mentioned even hit $5,000.

All that said, I'm not trying to be jerky—I'm just obsessive about data, so I can be a stickler. I agree with you that from 2011 to 2015 there is evidence that some percentage of the SNES market was in the low four figures, with most of it in the three figures. I think we're in agreement that the three-figure market has generally, from 2011 to the present day, been too little talked about in favor of an obsessive focus on... well, not even four-figure sales but five-, six-, and seven-figure ones. And we'd probably agree that that has goosed the market for sellers and generally hurt buyers.

[AnimalHouse | 117]

31 minutes ago, Amermoe said:

I'll just use public ebay records

iirc ebay records are good for 90 days, then the page is gone?

[tidaldreams | 654]

1 minute ago, AnimalHouse said:

iirc ebay records are good for 90 days, then the page is gone?

You can use terapeak up to 365 days, but yeah past 90 days the page isn't "clickable".

[Amermoe | 150]

52 minutes ago, RETRO said:

given that WATA was founded in mid-2017)

Just a minor correction for record, Wata was founded in Jan. 2018, and didn't start dealing with Heritage until I believe late 2018.

https://trademarks.justia.com/877/45/wata-87745034.html

[AnimalHouse | 117]

54 minutes ago, tidaldreams said:

You can use terapeak up to 365 days, but yeah past 90 days the page isn't "clickable".

I remember you mention this before but couldn't remember if it were a free or paid app?

[Seth | 172]

29 minutes ago, Amermoe said:

Just a minor correction for record, Wata was founded in Jan. 2018, and didn't start dealing with Heritage until I believe late 2018.

https://trademarks.justia.com/877/45/wata-87745034.html

This is a common misconception. WATA was founded in 2017, but it didn't start grading games until April 2018. However, that it had been founded was widely enough known in the collecting community that its influence was felt beginning in late 2017 (albeit nothing like when the boom came in 2019).

[AnimalHouse | 117]

2 hours ago, AnimalHouse said:

Ouch. Who Framed Roger Rabbit Wata 9.8 A+ value plummeted. Kudos to the winner. The winner of SMB2 Wata 9.2 A+ is trying to double his money on ebay. Didn't realize a quick turnaround from Heritage to ebay was possible on a high five figure game.

 

 

Looking over my notes, a previous 1st print SMB2 9.2 A+ sold on ebay last August for $5,012. Then this seller purchased his copy for $43,000 from Heritage. Not bad on a 1 year return investment. Browsing some more, a 1st print SMB2 9.4 A+ sold on CC in August for $90,000. Ay caramba! 

[tidaldreams | 654]

1 hour ago, AnimalHouse said:

I remember you mention this before but couldn't remember if it were a free or paid app?

It's free but you need an ebay store... although that pretty much pays for itself if you sell any decent amount every month.

[OptOut | 8,892]

3 hours ago, AnimalHouse said:

Ouch. Who Framed Roger Rabbit Wata 9.8 A+ value plummeted. Kudos to the winner. The winner of SMB2 Wata 9.2 A+ is trying to double his money on ebay. Didn't realize a quick turnaround from Heritage to ebay was possible on a high five figure game.

But... BUT!!! Roger Rabbit is a HIGHLY culturally relevant and beloved cartoon ICON... to crusty old comic and sports card collectors in their 40's and 50's... 

I'd actually be seriously surprised if anyone under 30 had even HEARD of Roger Rabbit in this day and age... I mean I love the movie myself, of course but unfortunately I'm closer to 40 than 30!

Let's be real. Roger Rabbit is hardly a cultural touchstone is it? Just more proof that these guys will spend untold amounts of money on something with a face their recognise, REGARDLESS of the quality of the actual item itself, or the wider relevance of the reference they are pumping money into.

 

IMO, the VAST majority of NON-GAMING properties and tie-ins are MASSIVELY overpriced and over-pumped in this current market. The whole "crossover appeal" argument is a myth, especially once you are talking about items being insanely pumped up into the high 4 and 5 figure territory on the backs of nothing more than a familiar brand on the box.

This may also go for sports games too, although I think it's gonna hit these stupid cartoon and comic book games way harder. **COUGH** Atari Spiderman **COUGH**

[AdamW | 713]

Who Framed Roger Rabbit will be a significant movie pretty much forever as one of the early examples of a feature-length live action / animation combination. But I agree with you that doesn't mean it makes any sense to value the tie-in game much at all.

[OptOut | 8,892]

1 hour ago, AdamW said:

Who Framed Roger Rabbit will be a significant movie pretty much forever as one of the early examples of a feature-length live action / animation combination. But I agree with you that doesn't mean it makes any sense to value the tie-in game much at all.

Coming from the old-school retrogaming mindset, I gotta admit it's pretty HILLARIOUS to see the new big bucks moneybags walking around trying to pretend that comic book and movie tie-ins and sports games are where it's at! 

You know... the kinds of games that have been the butt of jokes for DECADES because of how shitty they are?! AVGN built an entire CAREER on ripping the shit out of crappy movie and cartoon tie-in games!  

And sports games? Didn't used games stores literally STOP offering any trade-in value whatsoever on those games, wasn't it always the DREGS of the LAST of the SCRAPS you'd find at flea markets and thrift stores that had been picked to the bone?!!! 

 

I guess it's okay if the Comic bros and Sports dudes DO want to build a market for retro games based on their own pre-existing interests... I mean they seem to have been very enthusiastic about doing so up until now... But it's really the next stage in the process I am confused about.

Is the market ONLY ever going to continue to expand by attracting 40-50 year olds previously uninterested in Video Games? At what point are people like me, you know, actual Video Game enthusiasts, supposed to get on board with this fantastic, wonderful GREAT hobby for graded video games?

Because, the way it seems to me, is that the train arrived at its final destination pretty much empty, the conductor shouted END OF THE LINE, and only THEN did people start cramming themselves into the carriage with every spare dollar available. It looks totally backwards to me, from any sensible financial point of view.

Edited November 2, 2021 by OptOut

[jonebone | 1,307]

Just a reminder, you can't play a sealed game (or graded CIB).  I thought the whole playability argument for sealed values was a dead argument 5 years ago but history repeats itself.

Nostalgia, not playability, drives values.  I haven't played a 16 bit Madden since the 16 bit days but I still like them sealed... and I collected them "before they were cool".  I never played many of these movie video games but I love having a sealed NES Terminator for example.  And I'm not some dumb new guy, I'm a longterm collector.  Same with stuff like Simpsons, Looney Tunes, etc.  Maybe you like the franchise and want to collect the games, it's not a tough concept.

Also worth mentioning that stuff can be an acquired taste for some.  You get your Mario / Zelda / Tyson / etc, what's next?  Terminator and Madden weren't my day 1 purchases but when you've collected for a long time your want lists expand.

Last point, up until auction houses were around with games, virtually all high end sales were private, and kept private.  For one, most people want to net more money that way without paying the site fees, and for two, people want to keep it private so they can try to buy back stuff at lower values.  Those are real data points and plenty of people have transactions logs to prove it.  Wata had absolutely no bearing on the market until the Black Box article in January 2019 as well. Many people, myself included, wished them luck but thought they were years too late.  Hobby was quite stagnant at that point, people were dormant, some sold off, and new blood was not entering.  Sales from 2017-2018 and anything pre-auction house era were still mostly organically driven.

Edited November 2, 2021 by jonebone