Stock Analysis and Trades Thread

[captmorgandrinker | 1,649]

5 minutes ago, jonebone said:

Man GME is going to be the bane of my existance. 

Yeah, but look at all the entertainment it has given us as a whole!

[RH | 4,903]

Curious if anyone is willing to admit holding any short positions right now.

Shorting is one of the dangerous forms of trading, IMHO, as an amateur.  I made good money shorting cryptocurrencies on poloniex many, many moons ago, but that's a different beast.  Still, if unexpected upturns take place, you could lose biiiiiig money.

So, does anyone feel they have a safe bet on any specific company as a short sale?

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

22 minutes ago, jonebone said:

Man GME is going to be the bane of my existance.  Dumped my $3.27 shares from last week at $4.50 yesterday. Happy with that week return, and offset the gain by dumping some old $11.50 shares I had.  Just wanted to reduce my GME position and put that into FDX.

Then today GME is up around $5.80 at the time of this post.  I still have a lot of shares averaged around $10 or so and believe in them long term but with so many things to buy these days I want to diversify more.

I really thought GME was doomed to channel between $3 and $5 for awhile but with it breaking through $5 who knows.  I should have doubled down a lot harder around $3 but didn't want to put more money into a loser than necessary.  

Even in coronavirus I still think the stock is a strong buy around $3-$3.50 if anyone gets another chance there. 

If you were willing to buy them at all, I'm genuinely surprised you weren't buying them when they were sub-$3.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

10 minutes ago, RH said:

Curious if anyone is willing to admit holding any short positions right now.

Shorting is one of the dangerous forms of trading, IMHO, as an amateur.  I made good money shorting cryptocurrencies on poloniex many, many moons ago, but that's a different beast.  Still, if unexpected upturns take place, you could lose biiiiiig money.

So, does anyone feel they have a safe bet on any specific company as a short sale?

The kind of volatility we've had in the last few weeks just makes the idea of using short positions seem insane.

And the guys leveraging with options trades are getting it even worse.

 

I am content to use certain days to get out of positions I don't want anymore, and others to average in for the long-term on companies I expect to be fine a year from now.

(with a few riskier bets scattered around -- but nothing close to the risk magnitude of options or shorts)

[jonebone | 1,307]

11 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

If you were willing to buy them at all, I'm genuinely surprised you weren't buying them when they were sub-$3.

I said I was done buying them mid last year and stopped around $8 or $9.  I only bought at $3 ($3.27 to be exact) because of the double bottom with the recent $3 low.  I expected support there.  When it dipped into the $2s and broke that support there was no clear buy signal, you were just either on the ride or on the sideline.  It is impossible to predict an exact bottom, you just pull the trigger when you feel comfortable getting in.  

[RH | 4,903]

5 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

The kind of volatility we've had in the last few weeks just makes the idea of using short positions seem insane.

And the guys leveraging with options trades are getting it even worse.

 

I am content to use certain days to get out of positions I don't want anymore, and others to average in for the long-term on companies I expect to be fine a year from now.

(with a few riskier bets scattered around -- but nothing close to the risk magnitude of options or shorts)

I'm slowly trying to soak up trading knowledge.  Over 12 years ago, I was trying to heavily learn about trading and was practicing over at Investopedia.  My intent was to start some day trading with a minor seed of funds, but then I discovered bitcoin.  After giving up crypto for a couple years, I'm now wanting to start studying and investing in traditional markets.

That said, I don't think I'll ever pull the trigger on a real short position.  Shorts were so volatile with crypto and could be quite lucrative but you had to be extremely smart and read the "tea leaves" of when full "tulip mania" was at it's peak for a useless currency.  Anyway, I don't know how to do that with normal markets because there are also to many factors and the time frame for wide market movements are so much shorter.  Anyway, I still find it interesting trading mechanism to observe.  I might short one share one day of a cheap but over priced stock, just to observe the outcome.  But, I would do it knowing I'd likely lose money and the cost would be just to learn form the experience and observations.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

7 minutes ago, RH said:

I'm slowly trying to soak up trading knowledge.  Over 12 years ago, I was trying to heavily learn about trading and was practicing over at Investopedia.  My intent was to start some day trading with a minor seed of funds, but then I discovered bitcoin.  After giving up crypto for a couple years, I'm now wanting to start studying and investing in traditional markets.

Don't confuse day-trading with investing.

 

[Gloves | 11,777]

Just now, arch_8ngel said:

Don't confuse day-trading with investing.

 

You can't tell me how to live.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

12 minutes ago, jonebone said:

I said I was done buying them mid last year and stopped around $8 or $9.  I only bought at $3 ($3.27 to be exact) because of the double bottom with the recent $3 low.  I expected support there.  When it dipped into the $2s and broke that support there was no clear buy signal, you were just either on the ride or on the sideline.  It is impossible to predict an exact bottom, you just pull the trigger when you feel comfortable getting in.  

Don't worry, I'm sure you'll have another chance to buy them at $3 before this is all said and done...

 

EDIT: though Burry holds over 5% of the company, now, so at some point here activist investors are going to add a layer of intrigue.

Edited April 14, 2020 by arch_8ngel

[RH | 4,903]

2 minutes ago, Gloves said:

You can't tell me how to live.

Gloves, you seem to be feeling feisty today, and I LIKE IT!

3 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

Don't confuse day-trading with investing.

No, I get it.  My intent was/is to start with longer/mid term investments.  Some purchases intended to be held for a year plus, and others for 6 months, but to then learn the details to actualyl be able to day trade. Regardless, thanks for the reminder.

[Gloves | 11,777]

1 minute ago, RH said:

Gloves, you seem to be feeling feisty today, and I LIKE IT!

Still don't want that job, stop trying to butter me up.

[RH | 4,903]

4 minutes ago, Gloves said:

Still don't want that job, stop trying to butter me up.

Lol, yeah, I'd probably really make a bad interviewer.  Instead, I'd be like "So, show me something you've actually done.  What was the hardest challenge on that project? What would you improve?"  But that's not how people conduct interviews. 

[Kguillemette | 1,544]

I have learned enough about stock trading/investing the past couple weeks to know that I dont know a damn thing about what im doing. I doubled down on my initial bad play of ccl when it hit 8 and sold out when it jumped to 12.50 to about break even between that and my pfgc gains. I bought fiat at 6 which has done well for me. Beyond that, i can't handle emotionally the roller coaster volatile stocks, so i put into WMK on jonebone's recommendation, which has done well for me and at&t @ 30. When I am done with fiat (probably at 11) I'll probably roll that into another nice dividend stock. I might buy into an airline if they dip again. Right now I need to hold on to as much cash as i can. But if timing works out, I might dip my toes back in and gamble on one of these companies making zero dollars like a cruise line again.

 

 

 

 

[Californication | 1,477]

I've been day trading with mixed results.

I was up 11.5% and then made two really bad plays and dropped down to 3.5% ahead and it took me a two weeks to get back up to 9.5%

The cold piece is, the one long term stock I bought and ignored, I bought in at slightly less than .5% and it is up 15%. Also, one of the stocks I was day trading multiple times went up in value by like 60%, i lf I would have just bought and ignored I would be sitting fat.

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by Californication

[Makar | 1,946]

I've day traded over the past month and am up 50%, and no I didn't go from $100 to $150. It was real money. 

A couple basic key investment tips (***do NOT take this as official financial advice. Please consult your financial advisor before dabbling in stocks)

1) DIVERSIFY! there are so many reasons for this. Companies can go bankrupt, corona can hit, oil price wars can hit, you can have fraud like Licking coffee, etc. 

2) Buy when the stock is red, sell when it's green. If a stock has increased 50% in a day, you missed the boat. The potential harm is much more likely than the potential gain. Most stocks that jump that much or higher in a day come crashing down the same day or within 3 days. 

3) look for stocks that have tanked but have not gone back up much. Airlines, cruise stocks, and oil companies are all taking a beating right now. There are others too of course but stuff like Amazon and Netflix are actually higher than they were before corona. 

4) it's all about percentages, not total dollar gains. If you put $2500 into google (2 shares), it's probably not going to jump much more than a couple hundred dollars within the next year. So let's say it goes to $1400. Your 2 shares are now worth $2800 and you've gained 12%. Not a bad return at all but let's say you put your $2500 into Apache. It's $8, so you'd get 312 shares. Even if all it does is increase by $2 and go to $10, you'll have $3120 which is an increase of 24.8%. Apache was at $25 before corona too so it is more likely to double in a year than Google is. It's also more likely to loses half it's value than Google.

[Californication | 1,477]

@Makar,

Just for fun, b/c I have been making several wrong decisions lately what would you do?

I have had a bad week, but I bought a healthy size of ABT last night right before close. They are up atleast 3% in after hours and pre-market. 

They just announced an anti body test that we will need and they are doubling the price they are charging on their per test amount on their original covid 19 test which they are starting to scale and has an inelestic demand.

Do you think I should take the money and run at open and buy in on a dip or hold? I should say the run up was partially due to an earnings report being released which I think may be in underwhelming.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Californication

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

14 hours ago, Makar said:

4) it's all about percentages, not total dollar gains. If you put $2500 into google (2 shares), it's probably not going to jump much more than a couple hundred dollars within the next year. So let's say it goes to $1400. Your 2 shares are now worth $2800 and you've gained 12%. Not a bad return at all but let's say you put your $2500 into Apache. It's $8, so you'd get 312 shares. Even if all it does is increase by $2 and go to $10, you'll have $3120 which is an increase of 24.8%. Apache was at $25 before corona too so it is more likely to double in a year than Google is. It's also more likely to loses half it's value than Google.

I don't really think I'd compare investing in a tech behemoth (though there are plenty of tech companies I'd rather buy that Google/Alphabet) with buying an oil-and-gas exploration company that is getting crushed by the current oil war.

Your real question with Apache, is it more likely to double or go bust entirely...

[Makar | 1,946]

2 hours ago, arch_8ngel said:

I don't really think I'd compare investing in a tech behemoth (though there are plenty of tech companies I'd rather buy that Google/Alphabet) with buying an oil-and-gas exploration company that is getting crushed by the current oil war.

Your real question with Apache, is it more likely to double or go bust entirely...

I was just giving examples in general. You can pick any two stocks. We're either going to see a momentous shift to electric vehicles or oil will come back. I think oil is screwed long term. That electric shift will happen eventually. Just a question of when.

[Makar | 1,946]

6 hours ago, Californication said:

@Makar,

Just for fun, b/c I have been making several wrong decisions lately what would you do?

I have had a bad week, but I bought a healthy size of ABT last night right before close. They are up atleast 3% in after hours and pre-market. 

They just announced an anti body test that we will need and they are doubling the price they are charging on their per test amount on their original covid 19 test which they are starting to scale and has an inelestic demand.

Do you think I should take the money and run at open and buy in on a dip or hold? I should say the run up was partially due to an earnings report being released which I think may be in underwhelming.

Did not see this until now. I'd be happy with a 10% gain and probably sell. You have to remember, corona isn't forever. Does the company have other good products to keep it going post corona? If yes, then maybe hold. If no, then probably sell. They're also at the highest they've ever been right now

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

39 minutes ago, Makar said:

I was just giving examples in general. You can pick any two stocks. We're either going to see a momentous shift to electric vehicles or oil will come back. I think oil is screwed long term. That electric shift will happen eventually. Just a question of when.

There is a difference between "oil coming back" and "oil EXPLORATION cominb back" in the short/medium term.

There is a big glut of all kinds of existing sources that is going to have the potential to really punish exploration.  (same kind of thing for "dirty" sources like oil sands)

So producers/refiners -- those are bets I'm willing to make right now (XOM / RDS.B), but exploration is a much bigger gamble at the moment.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

36 minutes ago, Makar said:

Did not see this until now. I'd be happy with a 10% gain and probably sell. You have to remember, corona isn't forever. Does the company have other good products to keep it going post corona? If yes, then maybe hold. If no, then probably sell. They're also at the highest they've ever been right now

Agreed.

@Californication-- when Makar said he was "up 50%" he wasn't referring to being up 50% on a specific single position that was some specific great gamble.  That is presumably an accumulation of a bunch of much smaller up-days (i.e. 5 - 10% here and there, cumulative).

[Californication | 1,477]

1 hour ago, arch_8ngel said:

Agreed.

@Californication-- when Makar said he was "up 50%" he wasn't referring to being up 50% on a specific single position that was some specific great gamble.  That is presumably an accumulation of a bunch of much smaller up-days (i.e. 5 - 10% here and there, cumulative).

Right, I meant the same thing. I was up 10% overall.

Regarding ABT I made the wrong decision. I sold on the second jump. I was watching all morning and when they got rid of guidance the premarket when negative and so when it started going up I lost confidence. 

I was in ABT back around 79 or 82 something like that and I wasn't happy with the multiple then and I sold right before it jumped. I think they got rid of guidance because they are losing a lot from their other revenue streams although I am a fan of Similac. But, this virus is going to need to be tested on a mass scale for a long time and although they have competition globally they are locked in with the U.S. market.

They also announce the test to see if you previously had covid in your system. Which is the next big step in normalizing society.

Apparently the sales call was really good thisbmorning and I screwed up by not listening in. I heard reps from the major banks got on the line and started calling ABT testing the gold standard or something.

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by Californication

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

1 hour ago, Californication said:

Right, I meant the same thing. I was up 10% overall.

Regarding ABT I made the wrong decision. I sold on the second jump. I was watching all morning and when they got rid of guidance the premarket when negative and so when it started going up I lost confidence. 

I was in ABT back around 79 or 82 something like that and I wasn't happy with the multiple then and I sold right before it jumped. I think they got rid of guidance because they are losing a lot from their other revenue streams although I am a fan of Similac. But, this virus is going to need to be tested on a mass scale for a long time and although they have competition globally they are locked in with the U.S. market.

They also announce the test to see if you previously had covid in your system. Which is the next big step in normalizing society.

Apparently the sales call was really good thisbmorning and I screwed up by not listening in. I heard reps from the major banks got on the line and started calling ABT testing the gold standard or something.

 

I may have bailed early on pharmaceuticals, but I had big enough gains on them last week that I didn't want to hold them long-term once news starts coming out of which trials DON'T work as expected (or other pipeline/manufacturing issues).

The sentiment on all of this stuff is so irrational, that I'm trying not to own something right now that I don't want to keep long-term, and I know that most of those companies will make a lot less from this event than most people seem to think (and on top of that are losing existing revenue streams due to the virus, to boot)

[Californication | 1,477]

Ya, I mean that sounds like a smart plan to me.

l wish I had grabbed a couple good solid long term stocks a few weeks ago, but as it stands many of the ones I could buy seem over valued considering the state of the economy.

I might start vetting some of the riskier stocks like Gap or Southwestern, but I probably won't buy.

[Kguillemette | 1,544]

I did buy back into pfgc when it fell to 23. I read Sysco stopped selling fresh meat and produce. Pfg reps have been getting lots of new customers that are remaining open to begin to (slowly)  replace the ones they lost. The main thing pfg has been dealing with from a cost cutting standpoint has been short coding proteins and dairy(which as a chef/kitchen manager is a pain in the ass, but at least they are gettable compared to Sysco who straight discontinued their use) and no longer offering a Wednesday delivery.

 

I know pfgc in the last day did some financial business thing I don't understand to value their stock at 22.50. I'm sure it will have some effect.

 

Bottom line is i feel that when restrictions beging to lift and restaurants begin to open up again, pfgc will come out with a much bigger market share than when they went in. If they drop back to 20, I'll double down. Long term (6 mo+) I think this will be a really nice play. In the meantime I'll just enjoy the bumpy ride for what it's worth while it bounces around from the upper mid 20s to low 20s/upper teens. If they drop to the low teens again for whatever reason, im going hard at them.