Stock Analysis and Trades Thread

[Daniel_Doyce | 470]

7 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

Seeking Alpha can occasionally stir up some interesting tickers, but you have to keep in mind they are essentially a bunch of amateur bloggers posing as stock experts.  Take everything they say with a generous heaping of salt.

 

To the part in bold, though...there are waves and waves of companies right now suspending dividends for the duration of the crisis.

Almost all dividends should be seen as disposable at this point.

I don't see that as a bad thing necessarily, and can be a prudent move when internal investment takes precedence over distributions. It's not like money just disappears from the company's balance sheet if the dividend is cut.

Most large companies will never completely cut the dividend since a lot of pension and mutual funds won't hold stock without a dividend. Hence GE and its current $0.01 / share.

[jonebone | 1,307]

47 minutes ago, Daniel_Doyce said:

I don't see that as a bad thing necessarily, and can be a prudent move when internal investment takes precedence over distributions. It's not like money just disappears from the company's balance sheet if the dividend is cut.

Most large companies will never completely cut the dividend since a lot of pension and mutual funds won't hold stock without a dividend. Hence GE and its current $0.01 / share.

Boeing just cut their dividend for the first time in 40 years.  They are more beaten up than most for other reasons but if a company is bleeding cash with no end in sight then paying the dividend is the least of their concerns. 

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

32 minutes ago, jonebone said:

Boeing just cut their dividend for the first time in 40 years.  They are more beaten up than most for other reasons but if a company is bleeding cash with no end in sight then paying the dividend is the least of their concerns. 

I wouldn't discount the possibility of Boeing going through some form of restructuring/bankruptcy before it is all said and done.

[jonebone | 1,307]

16 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

I wouldn't discount the possibility of Boeing going through some form of restructuring/bankruptcy before it is all said and done.

They definitely would go bankrupt but I assume the Government will bail them out.  

[Californication | 1,477]

I was busy buying PFGC this morning and I looked back at HD and it had gained to much for my taste. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by Californication

[Kguillemette | 1,544]

1 hour ago, Californication said:

I was busy buying PFGC this morning and I looked back at HD and it had gained to much for my taste. 

Good man buying PFGC. Betting on pfg is like betting on the restaurant and hospitality industry as a whole.

I wish they paid out dividends, but it is due so hard for a strong rebound.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Kguillemette

[Californication | 1,477]

10 minutes ago, Kguillemette said:

Good man buying PFGC. Betting on pfg is like betting on the restaurant and hospitality industry as a whole.

I kind of screwed it up.

I bought it first thing this morning and then I was up 4.5% overall. I went to sell, and I accidently sold only 1 share. 

I dropped down to being 3.5% ahead and I picked up some more instead of selling. 

I ended up barely ahead on it at the end of the day, but I have a good chunk now.

I ended up making 2.5% on my other moves today, but ya. I am hoping PFGC goes up tomorrow.

Edit: TY for bringing up the stock by the way I didn't hear about if before you mentioned it. They seem solid, there was just one thing on their financials that bothered me.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Californication

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

26 minutes ago, Californication said:

I kind of screwed it up.

I bought it first thing this morning and then I was up 4.5% overall. I went to sell, and I accidently sold only 1 share. 

I dropped down to being 3.5% ahead and I picked up some more instead of selling. 

I ended up barely ahead on it at the end of the day, but I have a good chunk now.

I ended up making 2.5% on my other moves today, but ya. I am hoping PFGC goes up tomorrow.

Edit: TY for bringing up the stock by the way I didn't hear about if before you mentioned it. They seem solid, there was just one thing on their financials that bothered me.

Probably want to watch out with the day trading, unless you want to meet cash balance minimums if you get tagged as a pattern day trader.

Edited March 24, 2020 by arch_8ngel

[Californication | 1,477]

40 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

Probably want to watch out with the day trading, unless you want to meet cash balance minimums if you get tagged as a pattern day trader.

I just read the rule. I'll be more careful.

[Kguillemette | 1,544]

I'm thinking about dropping some on an automaker if they drop a bit the near future. I think a good chunk of these government checks will be spent on new vehicles. Honda looks like the strongest automaker, plus it has a nice dividend, though fiat Chrysler has a chance to bounce a bit higher in value %. Then I'll be pretty happy with my portfolio this year. I'll probably keep buying as much pfgc as I can long as it stays under 20 while grinding up on GME (a big gamble, I know) in preparation for the ps5 release. 

 

And of course working to max out my Roth IRA. 

[Daniel_Doyce | 470]

2 hours ago, Kguillemette said:

Good man buying PFGC. Betting on pfg is like betting on the restaurant and hospitality industry as a whole.

I wish they paid out dividends, but it is due so hard for a strong rebound.

Gotta thank for you this too. Nabbed a bunch around 13 and will will see where it ends up as the market rebounds throughout 2020. I'll be aggressively saving for now and putting it into the market every 2 weeks, 1/2 in an SPDR type S&P index, and 1/2 in individual stocks.

My company's stock is a turd, but at least I get a 15% discount, so it's worth maxing out my ESPP just for that reason.

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Daniel_Doyce

[Kguillemette | 1,544]

9 minutes ago, Daniel_Doyce said:

Gotta thank for you this too. Nabbed a bunch around 13 and will will see where it ends up as the market rebounds throughout 2020. I'll be aggressively saving for now and putting it into the market every 2 weeks, 1/2 in an SPDR type S&P index, and 1/2 in individual stocks.

My company's stock is a turd, but at least I get a 15% discount, so it's worth maxing out my ESPP just for that reason.

 

You're welcome. I honestly dont know anything, I'm really just dipping my toes into the market. But i believe in them as a company, my dad works for them as a sales rep and i have done business with them for years. I think the corona scare will empower them long term. They have an excellent chance of coming out of this virus mess the new number one in foodservice distribution. Sysco is scrambling for revenue right now moving into grocery stores of all places. Don't move on too early. Depending on how many $13 shares you picked up, you might be sitting on a fortune. I only wish I had more than a few hundred clams to invest in them myself. 

I guess the lesson is next time there is a crash, look into investing into suppliers, they have the highest and quickest rebound potential. People always need stuff.

[jonebone | 1,307]

For you new stock guys, check out finviz.com.  That's the first one I check when someone mentions a stock:

https://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=pfgc

On PFGC the first things I notice is that very low cash value per share (0.17) with a high debt ratio (1.71).  So be weary of that one.  That means they owe almost twice as much in liabilities as they own in assets.  You can look at the stock chart and tell it is very beaten up and will likely have volatile moves each way, but I'm not sure that's one I'd want to hold long term.

One in the food section I like personally is Weis (WMK).  Arch may have heard of them, not sure about the rest of you.  They're a mid atlantic grocery store.  I never heard of them until about 2 years ago when they bought out all of the Food Lions around here.  A good friend of mine is a store manager and will likely make district manager in next few years (manager of about a dozen stores).  They do very well... they're strategy is essentially to be the cheapest in town.  They usually are. They lose market share to the bigger chains (Giant / Safeway around here) but they have completely turned around Food Lions that were ghost towns.  This is all ancedotal of course.

But their book looks a lot better. $5.63 in cash per share, does pay a dividend, no debt, and their book value per share is about equal to the stock price.  I haven't got in yet but I do want to establish a long in them at some point.  You aren't going to get yo-yo like returns on PFGC that you guys are playing, but I do believe that is a stock that could be comfortably held for a long time... depending when this market finally bottoms out (which I don't think we're there yet).

[Daniel_Doyce | 470]

2 hours ago, jonebone said:

For you new stock guys, check out finviz.com.  That's the first one I check when someone mentions a stock:

https://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=pfgc

On PFGC the first things I notice is that very low cash value per share (0.17) with a high debt ratio (1.71).  So be weary of that one.  That means they owe almost twice as much in liabilities as they own in assets.  You can look at the stock chart and tell it is very beaten up and will likely have volatile moves each way, but I'm not sure that's one I'd want to hold long term.

1.71 is their debt to equity ratio. That is very different from dividing liabilities by assets. 1.71 is reasonable for a capital intensive company.

There are some good things and bad about PFGC, so I guess it comes down to what one thinks of the systemic pricing irrationality in the market right now and how you view their overall fundamentals.

 

[Kguillemette | 1,544]

@joneboneGreat lead and great advice! If you dont mind my asking, what is your thoughts on Sysco(syy) as a company right now. I expect one of the two between them and pfgc to storm out of the ashes when the dust settles from all of this. US Foods is another major restaurant and hotel foodservice distributor, but i hate them as a company and I am not alone. Lots of discontinues on contracted items, lots of items that reps claim are "exclusives" that I can find from off other vendors easily. Sysco actually made an effort to buy them out several years back.

 

One foodservice industry note: lots of your mom and pops restaurants are banging right now, despite only being takeout. One place had record sales this past Thursday. 

[jonebone | 1,307]

Sysco is at least one I've heard of but I'm not fond of their fundamentals either, high debt ratio. Debt in itself isn't a bad thing, you need debt to scale a company in the early stages, but more mature companies need to pay it down and eliminate a reliance on it.

If you're just buying to hold for near term or quick sell, fundamentals don't really matter much.  It's all about the market trend and technicals (chart patterns), IMO.  If you're buying and holding for a long time then you had better like the fundamentals of the company too.  

[captmorgandrinker | 1,649]

14 minutes ago, Kguillemette said:

One foodservice industry note: lots of your mom and pops restaurants are banging right now, despite only being takeout. One place had record sales this past Thursday. 

Record sales as compared to their record sit-down sales day?   While they may be doing okay with takeout, I doubt the majority are really "booming" right now.

[Kguillemette | 1,544]

Sales. Literally record sales. 4 cooks on the line banging.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

21 minutes ago, Kguillemette said:

@joneboneGreat lead and great advice! If you dont mind my asking, what is your thoughts on Sysco(syy) as a company right now. I expect one of the two between them and pfgc to storm out of the ashes when the dust settles from all of this. US Foods is another major restaurant and hotel foodservice distributor, but i hate them as a company and I am not alone. Lots of discontinues on contracted items, lots of items that reps claim are "exclusives" that I can find from off other vendors easily. Sysco actually made an effort to buy them out several years back.

 

One foodservice industry note: lots of your mom and pops restaurants are banging right now, despite only being takeout. One place had record sales this past Thursday. 

Isn't Sysco heavily contracted with schools and universities?

That is an until-the-fall sales loss that will never be made up once things return to normal.

 

[Kguillemette | 1,544]

18 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

Isn't Sysco heavily contracted with schools and universities?

That is an until-the-fall sales loss that will never be made up once things return to normal.

 

Yes. Hospitals and other healthcare facilities as well. Pfg is also. 

 

The sales loss is a downside to the industry. It's something in restaurants you need to prepare for as an owner. Usually it's poor weather that kills sales for days at a time. This time its a damn plague.

[Californication | 1,477]

Welp. That worked out well. Not sure what to do now. This bail out is very confusing, I guess I'll just sit out for now.

[captmorgandrinker | 1,649]

1 hour ago, arch_8ngel said:

Isn't Sysco heavily contracted with schools and universities?

That is an until-the-fall sales loss that will never be made up once things return to normal.

 

Also lots of workplace cafeterias that are closed for a bit right now.

[arch_8ngel | 1,597]

11 minutes ago, captmorgandrinker said:

Also lots of workplace cafeterias that are closed for a bit right now.

I'm sure.

I just know that across the entire south-east, Sysco dominates public school system contracts, as well as university system contracts.

So I would expect similar dynamics to why Coca Cola is getting hammered (compared to other beverage makers), since Coca Cola has a practical monopoly on schools, universities, and sporting events, none of which are selling their products right now.

[ICrappedMyPants | 302]

I used to work for one of the biggest packaging companies in the world. The three biggest foodservice distributors, in order, are Sysco, US Foods, and Performance Food Group. All of these businesses will be impacted by the disruption in dine-in eating as restaurants, colleges, and corporate offices close their doors and limit physical exposures. Not to mention, hospitals are becoming more stringent on visitations. Their cafeterias are likely to be impacted as well. Depending on the duration of the shutdown, this could be very challenging for the industry.

Edited March 25, 2020 by ICrappedMyPants

[themisfit138 | 523]

3 hours ago, Californication said:

Welp. That worked out well. Not sure what to do now. This bail out is very confusing, I guess I'll just sit out for now.

That is what I am thinking also. Wait a few days, let it level out and see where to go next. I did make a good little chunk on PFGC. Bought when it hit eight and a half and just sold at $25. 

Edited March 25, 2020 by themisfit138