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Daniel_Doyce
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9 minutes ago, MrWunderful said:

Thats what I figured. I retire in 21 yrs!

You should put more money into it.  Now is the time to buy.  Actually....  futures are pointing towards another bad day tomorrow.  Not sure will the bottom will be.  How much lower can it go really?

Edited by tbone3969
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24 minutes ago, tbone3969 said:

Anyone like Zoom?  They could be used heavily for teleconferencing in this pandemic.

Best comment I read about this company is that every major institution is already locked into teleconference infrastructure with the bigger names and had been for years.

Zoom evidently is trying to entice with free offerings, but have limited ability to penetrate the institutional/corporate space that has existing contracts.

 

Can the stock go up because people believe it should due to teleconference being fashionable?  Yes.

But is it a great company with great fundamentals, with any kind of moat? Not from what I have read, though I could be wrong.

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12 hours ago, Daniel_Doyce said:

Eh, I don't think this is a GME-type scenario, where the death event is known but the timing is uncertain. Again, a lot of the negative results for the next 2 years have been priced in by the 60-70% decline so far. If CCL cuts their div or gets below 10, I'll seriously consider it.

I can't take you seriously if you think GME is a known death event and then think Cruise liners are a great buy right now.  

Let me put it another way, some of these Cruise liners will go bankrupt if there are not Govt bailouts handed to them in the future like automakers in the great recession.  You can make money on anything if you are extremely savvy with technicals and playing bounces (99.9% of us are not), but I would not be going long in the Cruise industry.

Consumer preferences are going to change forever going forward.  Google the average age of a Cruise Ship passenger, it says 46.7 years old.  And who's the most scared of this virus at the moment?  Older people.  Those people won't be thinking about cruises for years, if ever again period.  Consumer preferences are going to be changed forever on cruise lines. 

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2 hours ago, jonebone said:

I can't take you seriously if you think GME is a known death event and then think Cruise liners are a great buy right now.  

Let me put it another way, some of these Cruise liners will go bankrupt if there are not Govt bailouts handed to them in the future like automakers in the great recession.  You can make money on anything if you are extremely savvy with technicals and playing bounces (99.9% of us are not), but I would not be going long in the Cruise industry.

Consumer preferences are going to change forever going forward.  Google the average age of a Cruise Ship passenger, it says 46.7 years old.  And who's the most scared of this virus at the moment?  Older people.  Those people won't be thinking about cruises for years, if ever again period.  Consumer preferences are going to be changed forever on cruise lines. 

I'd be inclined to think the same thing, but they've survived a spotty history with norovirus outbreaks, and once coronavirus is normalized (i.e. people collectively decide that the risks no longer warrant quarantine or economic shutdown) I have a hunch that the same types of people that current gravitate towards cruises will continue to do so.

Regarding average age -- I've never looked into it, but it wouldn't surprise me AT ALL, if the average age of cruise goers was fairly static (i.e. as people get older, they may tend toward cruises over other more active vacations), and it isn't like people stop aging into the target demographic.

 

That said, it wouldn't surprise me at all if at least one of the major players collapses while the crisis is on-going, and I certainly wouldn't want to make a bet as to which ones will survive.

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12 hours ago, arch_8ngel said:

Best comment I read about this company is that every major institution is already locked into teleconference infrastructure with the bigger names and had been for years.

Zoom evidently is trying to entice with free offerings, but have limited ability to penetrate the institutional/corporate space that has existing contracts.

 

Can the stock go up because people believe it should due to teleconference being fashionable?  Yes.

But is it a great company with great fundamentals, with any kind of moat? Not from what I have read, though I could be wrong.

We are working with some consultants for some infrastructure changes and the large consulting company uses zoom. We currently use WebEx, but zoom seems better to me.

Edited by Californication
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3 hours ago, jonebone said:

I can't take you seriously if you think GME is a known death event and then think Cruise liners are a great buy right now.  

Let me put it another way, some of these Cruise liners will go bankrupt if there are not Govt bailouts handed to them in the future like automakers in the great recession.  You can make money on anything if you are extremely savvy with technicals and playing bounces (99.9% of us are not), but I would not be going long in the Cruise industry.

Consumer preferences are going to change forever going forward.  Google the average age of a Cruise Ship passenger, it says 46.7 years old.  And who's the most scared of this virus at the moment?  Older people.  Those people won't be thinking about cruises for years, if ever again period.  Consumer preferences are going to be changed forever on cruise lines. 

We can agree to disagree, especially about using technical analysis and playing bounces. That's just day trade type gambling.

I'm not dumping my entire portfolio into a single stock, just interested in taking on more diversification and risk in my portfolio.

A point estimate of average cruise ship passenger age is pretty meaningless. Is that average increasing / decreasing / stable over time? Strongly disagree that the geezers will stop taking cruises long term or that this will change the industry. This sort of crisis has happened to the industry multiple times and it always bounces back after a few months. Only real threat here is a bankruptcy.

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I'm looking at GME right now pretty good. Not because of bringing Reggie on board or any other restructure, or strategy they have, but the ps5 is due out and they spiked super hard with the ps3 and 360 launch and again with ps4 and Xbox one. Perhaps worth a flyer to sit on for about 18 months and see what happens.

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Bought some shares of pfgc. Performance Foodservice Group is the second largest foodservice group behind Sysco. Dropping to $11 per share is way to low. Restaurants are gonna take a beating shutting down, but in a few months when corona virus fears wear off, restaurants start coming back to life, schools and cafeterias reopen, it will come back very steadily.

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12 minutes ago, Kguillemette said:

Bought some shares of pfgc. Performance Foodservice Group is the second largest foodservice group behind Sysco. Dropping to $11 per share is way to low. Restaurants are gonna take a beating shutting down, but in a few months when corona virus fears wear off, restaurants start coming back to life, schools and cafeterias reopen, it will come back very steadily.

Interesting. You work in the food service biz, right? Good instincts to research the industry you work in.

PFGC got hammered today. The market is definitely pricing in some really bearish scenarios at this point. I'll read through their financials and maybe pick some up too.

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3 minutes ago, Daniel_Doyce said:

Interesting. You work in the food service biz, right? Good instincts to research the industry you work in.

PFGC got hammered today. The market is definitely pricing in some really bearish scenarios at this point. I'll read through their financials and maybe pick some up too.

I do. Its rough out there. But when everyone reopens, they buy from pfg. In the meantime, hospitals and pizza joints are gonna keep them going. Sysco has the worst customer service. Pfg has been siphoning their market share pretty steadily for over 15 years now. Id be shocked if they go much lower. Too much infrastructure to crumble. 

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3 minutes ago, Rooster said:

Boeing hit a 52 week low today.  Shares are selling for about 113 right now, and it might go down more.  Just last year it was nearly 400 a share.  They also have a nice dividend at $8.22

Boeing is nowhere close to done with eating the shit sandwich they made for themselves.

They were just downgraded to BBB rating for a reason.

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Yeah Boeing had a long way to fall IMO. As for dividends I would assume at least half if not more companies are going to cut them significantly or abolish them next cycle. They wont have a choice when their projected earnings turn into significant losses as doors are shuttered. 

Theres soo many companies I've had on my watch list that are tempting but I've held off this far. A couple that I've really wanted are CAKE and KSS but I'd rather be a little to late after the bottom than too early and watch the ride down.

I recommend going back to the 08 collapse and looking at some of those daily charts. Tradingview.com is a good free site. You can see how many times a stock hit a false rally only to bottom out even further than anyone could have imagined at the time.

You can never predict the bottom but you can watch for volatility to taper down at least.

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2 hours ago, jonebone said:

Yeah Boeing had a long way to fall IMO. As for dividends I would assume at least half if not more companies are going to cut them significantly or abolish them next cycle. They wont have a choice when their projected earnings turn into significant losses as doors are shuttered. 

Theres soo many companies I've had on my watch list that are tempting but I've held off this far. A couple that I've really wanted are CAKE and KSS but I'd rather be a little to late after the bottom than too early and watch the ride down.

I recommend going back to the 08 collapse and looking at some of those daily charts. Tradingview.com is a good free site. You can see how many times a stock hit a false rally only to bottom out even further than anyone could have imagined at the time.

You can never predict the bottom but you can watch for volatility to taper down at least.

Why the interest in those two in particular?

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On 3/11/2020 at 2:26 PM, Aguy said:

I just sold off some games on eBay to pick up more Ford stock. Over 9% dividend at just under $6 a share is a bargain.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fords-stock-falls-as-dividend-likely-to-be-suspended-analyst-says-2020-03-19

Obviously once we're on the other side of this, they'll want to get a dividend of some kind back into play for the reasons you mentioned.

But short-term, it looks like it is toast.

 

Probably the first wave of many slashed or entirely suspended dividends.

Edited by arch_8ngel
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On 3/17/2020 at 10:27 PM, Rooster said:

Why the interest in those two in particular?

I guess Cheesecake Factory is well positioned to maintain some amount of sales via takeout or delivery... though the stores themselves aren't exactly optimally located for anything like that.

 

Kohl's is tempting as hell, though.  They're at their lowest level since 1998, and unlike other large retailers (JC Penny, Macy's, Sears) they weren't already on the verge of actual collapse.

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On 3/17/2020 at 10:27 PM, Rooster said:

Why the interest in those two in particular?

I have a watchlist of tons of stocks I'd just love to own, but didn't want to buy into the highs and hope for higher.  Those two imparticular I think are severely over beaten at their current valuations with no risk of going under.  It's no so much that I want them because of COVID-19 or anything, just that I've always believed in those two companies.  Specifically:

Never have met anyone who didn't enjoy Cheesecake Factory.  I try to go there every year for my bday, I enjoy it.  They have 100s of options on the menu and dozens of cheesecakes that are all amazing.  It's really quite odd, most places with large menus you expect to specialize in nothing, yet I've never had an entree there I didn't enjoy.  And as far as nationwide dessert places go, they fit that niche as well as the dinner and lunch.  It's unique enough that I don't worry about over saturation in restaurants.

Kohl's has a partnership with Amazon and also uses Kohls cash. You spend $50 they give you $5 to $10 in Kohls cash that expires in a week or two.  Basically tries to convert many customers to subscribers in a sense, where they are in the store at least every 2 weeks.  JCPenneys is destined for bankruptcy, Macy's is tied to to many Malls in my experiences.  Kohls has lots of standalone stores plus a good web store front and heavy marketing.  As retailers go out of business Kohls is positioned to absorb their market share.

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