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Stock Analysis and Trades Thread


Daniel_Doyce
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35 minutes ago, jonebone said:

I'm also expecting the "We have a vaccine" to be the spark that does turn the stock market around when that does happen.  I'm not saying that a vaccine is going to be some magical cure all that ends everything, but the public perception factor will be huge. 

Yeah, but legitimate "we have a vaccine" news is a year away, at least, once you consider safety-testing (already started) being followed by efficacy-testing.

In the interim, hopefully there will be some more good news about the various anti-virals being effective, and maybe alleviation of supply-chain concerns on ventilators.

 

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1 hour ago, arch_8ngel said:

So how about Gamestop trying to declare themselves "essential" so they can stay open in places that are closing all non-essential stores during the pandemic?

Seems like a self-declaration that they know they won't survive this downturn.

I did see that. Took some chutzpah to make that declaration.

I think they should stay open since the employees will be safely quarantined against the general public while working in the stores.

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4 hours ago, arch_8ngel said:

So how about Gamestop trying to declare themselves "essential" so they can stay open in places that are closing all non-essential stores during the pandemic?

Seems like a self-declaration that they know they won't survive this downturn.

I have to imagine they are trying to stay alive long enough to get to the launch of ps5 and new xbox for one final big cash in before they shutter it. I give them 4 years.

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Just now, Californication said:

I want to buy gold. Charles Schwab is telling me to pick an ETF or Mutual Fund, and advice?

I am a strong believer that gold shouldn't be more than 5% of your portfolio.

It doesn't "do" anything, really, but it is pretty and if you have one ounce rounds they make an awesome ringing sound when you flip them.

I keep a little SGOL as well.

 

In terms of ETFs, there are some interesting portfolio concepts on Portfolio Analyzer (ranging from 3 fund up to 7 or 8 depending on how much you want to weight specific things).

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4 minutes ago, Californication said:

Is there anything that moves with the spot rate or are there always other variables?

SGOL, IAU, etc tend strongly to track with spot rate.

They are basically structured in a way that if you owned enough of them you can force them to trade you physical gold for the shares, which in turn means the prices have to track the portion of the commodity they imply, plus some small premium.

You can't buy physical gold at spot, either, unless you are transacting obscene quantities.

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10 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

SGOL, IAU, etc tend strongly to track with spot rate.

They are basically structured in a way that if you owned enough of them you can force them to trade you physical gold for the shares, which in turn means the prices have to track the portion of the commodity they imply, plus some small premium.

You can't buy physical gold at spot, either, unless you are transacting obscene quantities.

So I am looking at SGOL and the chart shows from $145 to to 14 in Nov. of '19. Is that just an adjustment of srock outstanding?

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40 minutes ago, Californication said:

So I am looking at SGOL and the chart shows from $145 to to 14 in Nov. of '19. Is that just an adjustment of srock outstanding?

SGOL had a 10 for 1 stock split in 2019. Stock splits have no practical effect on the stock, except maybe some increased liquidity in some cases and a lower share price.

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1 hour ago, Daniel_Doyce said:

Platinum is at the lowest it's been in more than 10 years if you're going to go that route. I wouldn't personally buy since I don't understand the reasons why and because there are so many massive opportunities in the stock market right now.

The why is I don't know what I am doing, but I feel pretty comfortable gold will go up.

My issue with going for other stocks is that so many stocks were inflated so it's hard for me to tell if they have dropped down to were they should be yet. Personally, I think there is a ton of money to be made because of the volatility, but as a layman, I don't feel comfortable picking a couple stocks to go in on, because the recession hasn't really ramped up yet and I don't know which stocks are going to bounce. 

So gold is my bet.

Edited by Californication
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1 hour ago, Californication said:

@arch_8ngel - Regarding SGOL  I went to buy and it said something like the ask is .50 more per share to purchase. I set it up to go through on Monday, but was a little surprised at the rate.

I don't trade after hours, but bid ask spread can get pretty wide if you do.

 

Edit -- keep in mind that even a major gold bug like Harry Browne didn't call for more than 25 percent allocation, and that is way higher than most would recommend

Edited by arch_8ngel
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45 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

I don't trade after hours, but bid ask spread can get pretty wide if you do.

 

Edit -- keep in mind that even a major gold bug like Harry Browne didn't call for more than 25 percent allocation, and that is way higher than most would recommend

Right, but you are talking about managing a properly diversified portfolio. I am talking about makimg a small educated gamble.

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7 hours ago, Californication said:

Right, but you are talking about managing a properly diversified portfolio. I am talking about makimg a small educated gamble.

How overweight are you planning to go?

I think you are making a less educated gamble than you realize, and there are probably better ways to get on more downside.

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7 hours ago, Californication said:

What do you guys think about Home Depot?

Seekingalpha has decent analysis by many different analysts, all with their own biases, of course.

Before you buy into a stock, read at least a couple of their last financial statements too.

Informally, it doesn't seem like something you're going to get too burnt on and has a decent dividend.Assuming people will forgo repairs during the crisis, there may be a nice spike in late 2020 or 2021. But you can pretty much say that about any retailer that survives.

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13 minutes ago, Daniel_Doyce said:

Seekingalpha has decent analysis by many different analysts, all with their own biases, of course.

Before you buy into a stock, read at least a couple of their last financial statements too.

Informally, it doesn't seem like something you're going to get too burnt on and has a decent dividend.Assuming people will forgo repairs during the crisis, there may be a nice spike in late 2020 or 2021. But you can pretty much say that about any retailer that survives.

Seeking Alpha can occasionally stir up some interesting tickers, but you have to keep in mind they are essentially a bunch of amateur bloggers posing as stock experts.  Take everything they say with a generous heaping of salt.

 

To the part in bold, though...there are waves and waves of companies right now suspending dividends for the duration of the crisis.

Almost all dividends should be seen as disposable at this point.

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