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Market finally cooling off?


WalterWhiteJr.
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I know... not another bubble bursting thread! No, that is not what this is. However in the last month or so, I have definitely noticed prices dropping across the board (sealed/CIB/loose). I am also seeing a lot of folks start to list more items, and those items are sitting. 

I am seeing the more popular games especially cooling. For example, Pokemon gameboy games have nosedived. 

Curious to hear other thoughts. Anyone else notice this trend?

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Games going up more organically, drives public confidence. Games going up haphazardly creates confusion and a more cautious approach.

I think also people are more understanding of pop reports and it’s relevance to gauging a genuine market flow. No one is dumb enough to throw crazy cash just because “they can”. We all have to use some common sense, if not now, then eventually.

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I dunno looking at the pricecharting NES game index https://www.pricecharting.com/console/nes November-Jan/Feb is normally a flatline for game prices since people ease up on spending money on themselves. The chart is starting to arch up from October 2021-November 2021 so from an NES standpoint we are actually out of the norm with prices rising during the holidays. Obviously not a comment on the entire market but NES has always been my demo model for the industry as a whole because I am a Nintendo fanboy.

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13 hours ago, OptOut said:

Covid bucks all spent, Christmas coming up, massing debts and missed work hours compounding???

Do I smell a recession on the horizon? 🧐

Nonsense. The Fed has discovered the secret of how to end recessions before they start and the US government will remain the greatest country this world has ever seen until the end of time.

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No surprise with the Pokemon games considering how fast they went up this year... more of a correction there. Things always tend to go down a bit this time of year with Xmas shopping and year-end expenses coming in. As someone who hasn't really followed prices for the last few years, I am still shocked more than not when I look up sold listings on eBay.

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I have to agree with the Pokemon bit, but outside of that I need to see more research and proven trends.  As much as it sucks to even look at VGPC given how bad those games have been reacting volatility and all that, their line graph wasn't off the mark much.  Pokemon Red had been going upwards of 9000 new/sealed but ungraded down to 3000 (graded from a high of 21k down to 17k which is less of a hit obviously.)  The sealed game took a huge smashing, no surprise I guess because even the 20% slide graded took will scare the pants off the next wannabe gold mine rush fool into buying another for profits.  The CIS, or game, box, manual bits, took not much of a hit, similar to the graded.  Hah guess I should have cashed out, yeah...no, that wasn't going to happen.

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I haven't really noticed a dip in CIB...especially for clean/nice copies, and especially in the NES/GB/SNES/GBC/N64/GBA (Nintendo cardboard) areas where I play the most.  Yeah, 30% pullback on Pokemon across the board was inevitable after that huge runup on what are some of the most heavily produced games of all time...there is so much supply out there, demand can never outstrip it...And the sealed market *sigh*...not to disparage sealed collectors, but there is just not enough "endgame" demand out there for the kind of prices that were/are being asked for.  A vast majority of the people buying that stuff are either trying to flip it to another investor, or are protecting their investment hoping they don't get caught holding the bag.  Yeah, there will always be demand for truly rare (1 of 10 in existence-type stuff) and impactful (Early SMB/Zelda) sealed games from ultra-high rollers/art collectors, but $50,000+ Pokemon games? There has to be thousands (tens of thousands?) of sealed Pokemon games in relatively good condition...I just don't see tens of thousands of people actually wanting to spend $50K on a piece of (pretty common) ornamental art...So yeah, I would guess that market is going to continue to decline as pop reports are released and the supply from all those people sending in their Mario 64s starts hitting the market.  But I'm not clairvoyant, and my opinion is just that...

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I would love nothing more than a cooling off of the markets in NES, but it's just the normal seasonal cycle.

People are spending extra money on loved ones instead of themselves. What usually *does* go up in price around this time of year are loose fan favorite titles, and used consoles.

 

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As someone who collects loose, cib and sealed, I am seeing an overall pause in the market. Some things have pulled back. Other things haven't dropped, but volume has dropped. It really feels like FOMO is pausing and a bit of rationality is surfacing. 

I have to assume whatever is happening had to have correlations in other collectible markets and video games will somewhat move with them. (Guessing there is more analysis/data available for more mature markets.)

I'll also add that even in the peak of the FOMO bubble (Q1 2021) there were not 10s of thousands of $50k+ Pokemon games.  (Orders of magnitude less.. but soon enough we won't have to guess.  pop reports will indicate how many Gem Mint cardboard Pokemon games are actually out there.)

I'll also add that I'm shocked at the sheer number of people who had been buying games just to "flip". It will be interesting to see what happens when a bunch of flippers have to hold.

 

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