Market finally cooling off?

[DarkKobold | 190]

On 11/17/2021 at 5:18 AM, OptOut said:

Covid bucks all spent, Christmas coming up, massing debts and missed work hours compounding???

Do I smell a recession on the horizon? 

I don't think so. The great resignation is going on. Jobs that would typically pay minimum wage are offering $12-20 to get workers. We're seeing upward mobility of lower income people that hasn't been matched for years. If wages are able to outpace the rising cost of living, we'll see inflation, especially in things that you otherwise could live without, like video games.

[ThePhleo | 2,184]

Maybe it's the lack of sleep talking, but I think if more threads like this existed across the communities of the hobby with the general consensus being in agreement then I have to wonder if that could actually manifest a downward trend by spooking away speculating lurkers.

Back on topic.

@DarkKobold I want to say I agree, but I have this gut feeling that says we're headed to a pretty strong recession soon. I hate parroting quotes without backing them but, but I keep reading that "Almost half of all money ever printed in the history of the US was printed in 2020, and we're pushing for more"

That doesn't seem to be a good statistic, regardless of the world changing pandemic that took place.

Something just doesn't "feel" right either.

[OptOut | 8,879]

On 12/7/2021 at 4:36 AM, ThePhleo said:

Maybe it's the lack of sleep talking, but I think if more threads like this existed across the communities of the hobby with the general consensus being in agreement then I have to wonder if that could actually manifest a downward trend by spooking away speculating lurkers.

I think the Mario 64 price crash had the biggest effect on the market so far, tbh. 

Everything was going up up up, until that one died on its feet. After that it seems like the speculator people have been getting at least a LITTLE more cautious about their buys...

Whether that continues to be the case, we'll have to wait and see!

[phart010 | 1,705]

On 12/6/2021 at 3:36 PM, ThePhleo said:

Maybe it's the lack of sleep talking, but I think if more threads like this existed across the communities of the hobby with the general consensus being in agreement then I have to wonder if that could actually manifest a downward trend by spooking away speculating lurkers.

Back on topic.

@DarkKobold I want to say I agree, but I have this gut feeling that says we're headed to a pretty strong recession soon. I hate parroting quotes without backing them but, but I keep reading that "Almost half of all money ever printed in the history of the US was printed in 2020, and we're pushing for more"

That doesn't seem to be a good statistic, regardless of the world changing pandemic that took place.

Something just doesn't "feel" right either.

I don’t know if I agree. These speculators are not really reading forums or listening to what people are saying. They are just likely doing technical analysis of pricing trends and making buy/sell decisions based off of that in the same way one would do for trading stocks

[OptOut | 8,879]

2 hours ago, phart010 said:

I don’t know if I agree. These speculators are not really reading forums or listening to what people are saying. They are just likely doing technical analysis of pricing trends and making buy/sell decisions based off of that in the same way one would do for trading stocks

[3rdStrongestMole | 430]

6 hours ago, phart010 said:

I don’t know if I agree. These speculators are not really reading forums or listening to what people are saying. They are just likely doing technical analysis of pricing trends and making buy/sell decisions based off of that in the same way one would do for trading stocks

So you're saying they did a bunch of technical research and that deemed SM 64 a million dollar game? Wtf kind of trends are these people looking at ? It's fomo by the uber wealthy or money laundering, 100% 

[GPX | 1,368]

On 12/9/2021 at 7:24 AM, 3rdStrongestMole said:

So you're saying they did a bunch of technical research and that deemed SM 64 a million dollar game? Wtf kind of trends are these people looking at ? It's fomo by the uber wealthy or money laundering, 100% 

It could be both - wealthy launderers.

And my educated guess is that the person who paid 1.5M used absolute zero statistical analysis to make the final bid.

[inasuma | 1,203]

On 12/8/2021 at 12:54 PM, 3rdStrongestMole said:

So you're saying they did a bunch of technical research and that deemed SM 64 a million dollar game? Wtf kind of trends are these people looking at ? It's fomo by the uber wealthy or money laundering, 100% 

i mean hanlon's razor applies much more nicely here. given the fomo in the market, it's just the simplest explanation. not to discount the alternatives, but they're just that: alternatives.  

[Tanooki | 4,929]

You know I think the abuse of the less than complete game is cooling off some.  I've avoided it, but not avoided keeping up on asinine prices in the last few years even before the dumb virus cash grab overdrive.

I don't think it has cooled across the board, but some systems I think have seen a slide.  I'm sure if you saw the finds thread in the last couple of weeks I bagged just over a dozen NES games when I've outright watched and avoided buying them for I think 3 years now at minimum.  The prices have fallen to a little less terrible price, and below the virus scam price too, the 2019 level from what I've seen so I bit on a few things.  Sure they're not 2011-12 low but closer to there than the abuses of the years since.

Perhaps it's a moderate cooling depending on level of completeness towards sealed shenanigans and based on system.  Gameboy(branding) right now is being screwed with since very early this year when it had been ignored so it's a mine field even loose, but stuff that has been bagged on for years has slipped.

[segashack | 15]

I've noticed the same. I feel like Spring 2021 things were going crazy high. Now things have cooled down somewhat.

[NostalgicMachine | 227]

Once people start getting tax returns, the fun will begin again.

[MiamiSlice | 3,089]

I'm not feeling good about the collectibles market. People are getting squeezed financially, they have less disposable income to blow on things they don't need. I don't know how much longer these prices will be sustained, if people aren't buying. 

[360collector | 289]

47 minutes ago, MiamiSlice said:

I'm not feeling good about the collectibles market. People are getting squeezed financially, they have less disposable income to blow on things they don't need. I don't know how much longer these prices will be sustained, if people aren't buying. 

I am selling some pokemon cards the last few months and its slow. I will be going to a retro convention here in august im very curious about how the prices will be

[MiamiSlice | 3,089]

8 minutes ago, 360collector said:

I am selling some pokemon cards the last few months and its slow. I will be going to a retro convention here in august im very curious about how the prices will be

Yeah I’m seeing demand is way down. Lots of people are trying to sell, not buy. 

Also some auctions I’ve been watching on eBay with ambitious starting prices have been ending without bids. These probably would have gotten bids 6 months ago. 

[360collector | 289]

4 minutes ago, MiamiSlice said:

Yeah I’m seeing demand is way down. Lots of people are trying to sell, not buy. 

Also some auctions I’ve been watching on eBay with ambitious starting prices have been ending without bids. These probably would have gotten bids 6 months ago. 

yeah I have actually seen that too. And one I watched end yesterday for the australia exclusive n64 hsv racing was simply relisted. I dont know if it wasnt paid or what but it was promptly relisted for 500 bucks

[Tanooki | 4,929]

Well I'm not going to get into the high dollar stuff with notable auctions, though that is tell tale if the rich and affluent of the gaming community, well not so much gaming, investing is accurate here, is backing off they can see some writing on the wall and are tightening up.  Just because of a thread on here about stupid slabbing on loose games now at WATA I decided yet again to check the sales on Pokemon Red Version (new) and the price has slipped from a month or two ago from 2k where someone paid 1k on a same quality item (sealed, non graded.)  I'm also seeing less posted, those posted are not being bought, and almost none are being bought.

Out of the big ticket stuff, next thing I can do is look to local retail I make a circle of 3 stores once maybe twice a week if time allows, and daily to the half price I bring up enough.  I'm not seeing an increase in stuff coming in so much yet, but what I am seeing is a lack of turnover compared to earlier this year.  Most of it is just sitting.  Stuff someone would have had some FOMO wet dream about paying $30 or $50 on right now, it's still there... 4-5 months ago, they'd have been scooped.  The store I discovered a month ago that I've been dumping stuff at, little is going out, a good bit is coming in which makes the shelf look sweet to eyeball like a museum glass case, but bad for their business.

Maybe that recession that likely will occur here in increasing amounts as this year creeps along may just be what we need.  People will panic, need cash, dump their crap they had been hoarding for a big score or whatever reason.  As more comes in and store stock starts to increase as it hasn't since pre-virus, they'll start paying less.  As they pay less, they sell less so it cycles out to get something.  That'll shove out the investors thankfully in some considerable number.

[inasuma | 1,203]

Super fascinating thing I've been noticing, lots and lots of high end players are selling of their games right now. The FB groups are filled with for sale posts.

It's pretty shocking to see people spending so much money to get their games only to sell them off. I guess that's what happens when your "investments" are alternative asset classes.

[Tanooki | 4,929]

We can only hope it starts a trend that brings down the house of cards within the year or so.  Drive them out with another form of FOMO, fear of money obliteration, sell now before you lose what you do care about to cover the losses.

[MrWunderful | 2,926]

Market for outrageously priced investment bro sealed grails? Maybe. 
 

Standard mint carts/ clean CIB? No chance. 

[inasuma | 1,203]

1 hour ago, Tanooki said:

We can only hope it starts a trend that brings down the house of cards within the year or so.  Drive them out with another form of FOMO, fear of money obliteration, sell now before you lose what you do care about to cover the losses.

I would looove that. I’m happy to start low balling for peoples poor investments 

[MrWunderful | 2,926]

13 hours ago, inasuma said:

I would looove that. I’m happy to start low balling for peoples poor investments 

Im sure you would be the only one

[inasuma | 1,203]

7 minutes ago, MrWunderful said:

Im sure you would be the only one

Cool. Gimme the goods.

[MrWunderful | 2,926]

6 hours ago, inasuma said:

Cool. Gimme the goods.

Yeah you will never get the chance because there’s thousands of other people just like you. It was more of a joke on tanooki’s misguided capitalism hate that somehow the bottom is going to magically fall out of the market and collapse it. 
 

Cooling off- possibly. The market collapsing? Only if there’s some catastrophic event that causes all collectibles to be worthless. 

Edited July 6, 2022 by MrWunderful

[inasuma | 1,203]

1 hour ago, MrWunderful said:

Yeah you will never get the chance because there’s thousands of other people just like you. It was more of a joke on 10 tanooki’s misguided capitalism hate that somehow the bottom is going to magically fall out of the market and collapse it. 
 

Cooling off- possibly. The market collapsing? Only if there’s some catastrophic event that causes all collectibles to be worthless. 

yup no disagreement there. i don't see the highest end of games falling out anytime soon. i also don't see even the mid to low end dropping so heavily that we're back to 2019 prices either.

[MrWunderful | 2,926]

3 hours ago, inasuma said:

yup no disagreement there. i don't see the highest end of games falling out anytime soon. i also don't see even the mid to low end dropping so heavily that we're back to 2019 prices either.

I would have loved a more gradual incline Like a real investment, but I don’t really collect sealed/graded so in the end I don’t actually care all that much. I was into it for a while but I made my money and got out. Once that Mario 64 sold for 1.15 or whatever there was a month or so where people were literally buying sealed garbage for outrageous prices. Some smart grifters really worked some folks. @DefaultGen knows, great videos on it. 
 

I just think it’s futile to wait for ” the drop” when the drop isn’t going to really happen. Kinda like with the outrageous housing market.  Level off? Dont doubt it. Crash? No way jose.