Market finally cooling off?

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

I’m seeing ALOT of sealed collectors trying to dump a ton of graded games on Facebook groups and nothing is moving, even at reduced priced. Anyone else noticing this?

[Tanooki | 4,933]

We currently have a major local collector call it quits, this guy used to go throughout the state and neighboring to bring in games, period display wall high shelves, etc and he wants it all gone.  STarterd dumping 2 days ago had prices a little lower than ebay average then took off 20%, yesterday was 30% where I scored some stuff then stopped myself, and next weekend is a 40/50% off day.  He has his garage loaded with all sorts of stuff.

But that leads into the cooling.  For instance, he had a CIB SMB1 in I'd guess 7/8 of 10 condition at 200 -30% ($140) and it sat, a PS1 and PS2 period rental snap case system in great shape cheap, still there, 2 complete non-stained up SNES systems at 75 -30% (about $50) still there.  Quite a few really nice gem titles on the table from Zombies and Castlevania on Gen for well under value, to various solid NES games (Return of the Joker, that Mario, etc) Gameboy too, etc...it made it a day and a half so far.  Maybe it's the risk gamble of cheapskates hoping for the next weekend but the stuff there was already well lower than online price, maybe not good enough for some insane flipper looking for max profit, but still, it sits.

 

Also seeing quite a few games I've grabbed recently that used to be like $120-150 titles on ebay where I got them in the lower mid 90s, and 70-80 games for the 50 mark.  Not sure if it's a summer slump or something is starting to crack, maybe recession fears are making forcing a well needed correction.

[TDIRunner | 2,735]

13 hours ago, Tanooki said:

We currently have a major local collector call it quits, this guy used to go throughout the state and neighboring to bring in games, period display wall high shelves, etc and he wants it all gone.  STarterd dumping 2 days ago had prices a little lower than ebay average then took off 20%, yesterday was 30% where I scored some stuff then stopped myself, and next weekend is a 40/50% off day.  He has his garage loaded with all sorts of stuff.

But that leads into the cooling.  For instance, he had a CIB SMB1 in I'd guess 7/8 of 10 condition at 200 -30% ($140) and it sat, a PS1 and PS2 period rental snap case system in great shape cheap, still there, 2 complete non-stained up SNES systems at 75 -30% (about $50) still there.  Quite a few really nice gem titles on the table from Zombies and Castlevania on Gen for well under value, to various solid NES games (Return of the Joker, that Mario, etc) Gameboy too, etc...it made it a day and a half so far.  Maybe it's the risk gamble of cheapskates hoping for the next weekend but the stuff there was already well lower than online price, maybe not good enough for some insane flipper looking for max profit, but still, it sits.

 

Also seeing quite a few games I've grabbed recently that used to be like $120-150 titles on ebay where I got them in the lower mid 90s, and 70-80 games for the 50 mark.  Not sure if it's a summer slump or something is starting to crack, maybe recession fears are making forcing a well needed correction.

I would be curious if he has a lot of PS1 commons he needs to unload.  

[Tanooki | 4,933]

5 minutes ago, TDIRunner said:

I would be curious if he has a lot of PS1 commons he needs to unload.  

Yes I just re-watched the small 9sec clip I got panning the area, and the back stands, he had these huge tall old retail 7" beasts from the 80s about 4ft wide or so, one row and most of another was all PS1 jewel cases.  I'd upload the video but they don't like videos attached here.  I could paste it on discord if really needed but it's across the garage you'll just see a fuzzy mess of jewel cases, largely black, a few with the green spines for greatest hits.

[TDIRunner | 2,735]

15 minutes ago, Tanooki said:

Yes I just re-watched the small 9sec clip I got panning the area, and the back stands, he had these huge tall old retail 7" beasts from the 80s about 4ft wide or so, one row and most of another was all PS1 jewel cases.  I'd upload the video but they don't like videos attached here.  I could paste it on discord if really needed but it's across the garage you'll just see a fuzzy mess of jewel cases, largely black, a few with the green spines for greatest hits.

Don't worry about the video.  Did he mention any plans to expand beyond his garage?  Has he considered trying to sell anything on the forums?  

[Tanooki | 4,933]

1 hour ago, TDIRunner said:

Don't worry about the video.  Did he mention any plans to expand beyond his garage?  Has he considered trying to sell anything on the forums?  

He's like me gave up on the online bs, too predatory and the new taxes on top of ebays shade is a bridge too far.  He's going to drop it to 50% then probably let some reseller scoop it for about that, though I told him where I had been dumping stuff where they give 60% value so it may get boxed up and sent that way to end the harassment.  I think he's at the rip the bandaid off moment currently.

[KarateBoy2k3 | 4]

Pain train is still chugging along.

Every seller on FB either needs money or bought a lot from someone who needed money and is now selling it in parts.

 

I need to update my analysis. Looks like market is down ~65% from the peak. For those who like math, that’s the same as down 50% and then another 30%.

Based on a survey, most expect it to fall further too. The speculators/tourists have been crushed. 

[Tanooki | 4,933]

@KarateBoy2k3 I've seen that on there too since it's the only place left I give a month give or take to buy my goodies before I take the 60% of ebay paid at the collectibles shop in town.  Those on FB right now are grabbing the deals online, then trying the older price local, or just fishing it out and hoping they can still find someone who hasn't caught on yet.

I think it will fall further, and as you said, speculators and tourists are getting crushed, starting to at least.  The more they keep trying and failing, the more slashes I see through items dropping I can roughly do the math eyeballing it, it's cuts, some hard.  I'm still watching a few SNES games and I just saw one of them turn the corner where it was rock solid never under $300 and in the last 30 days I'm seeing it going as low as barely north of $200, a price it hasn't seen in 5+ years easily(closer to 10.)  The values are in the 200-250 range, more BINs aren't being popped on at $300 or near it too that would have months ago.  At this rate I culd have bought it twice at that cheap near/at 200 rate and I didn't because it fell off so fast.  I'm going to roll the dice, see if it hits $150 or less as those $200s aren't damaged.

[KarateBoy2k3 | 4]

@TanookiBesides price charting, I’m still looking for a database of transaction prices in 2019 and earlier. 
 

Not every is back to 2019 levels, per NerdMelon, but some things have significantly closed the gap. Forced sellers are my favorite kind of seller. 

[Tanooki | 4,933]

I don't know of anyone who has bothered to collect that annoyingly other than them, and they only works o much as when ebay really does delete the stuff.  Some items pull up years earlier, some just months, despite in both cases not showing up on their search page.  At that rate VGPC is a guess since people don't put condition in titles of auctions usually, so it's guess work and VGPC is not trustworthy.

[ThePhleo | 2,184]

Sounds like everything is coming up roses

This is the kind of thing that turns newcomers into long timers. I've made some new friends during this boon, but I can only imagine a few of them sticking around.

[DarkKobold | 190]

Definitely seems like the market is slowing way down. September/October/November have usually been slow months, but there seem to be some precipitous drops lately - 

https://www.pricecharting.com/game/sega-master-system/james-buster-douglas-knockout-boxing#completed-auctions-cib

https://www.pricecharting.com/game/sega-genesis/crusader-of-centy#completed-auctions-cib

https://www.pricecharting.com/game/playstation-2/rule-of-rose#completed-auctions-cib

The prices on these fluctuate quite a bit, but we're not seeing them even get close to the previous highs. 

[DarkKobold | 190]

I'm going to bump this, because the market seems to be taking a nose dive. MUSHA CIB sold recently for $500. There's a James Buster Douglas that sold for $913, and one sitting on eBay for $1100. Crusader of Centy sold for $1,742, which is less than half of what it was selling for mid pandemic. 

[MrWunderful | 2,927]

29 minutes ago, DarkKobold said:

I'm going to bump this, because the market seems to be taking a nose dive. MUSHA CIB sold recently for $500. There's a James Buster Douglas that sold for $913, and one sitting on eBay for $1100. Crusader of Centy sold for $1,742, which is less than half of what it was selling for mid pandemic. 

Ive been watching MUSHA like a hawk, and excited to see it come down. 500$ was my lower limit, but I might be greedy and see if the bottom falls out even more before I pop on a copy. 
 

for reference, i got my dead mint CIB copy of crusader for quite a bit less than 1742$, this summer (private sale, not through eBay)

Edited December 13, 2022 by MrWunderful