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Stock Analysis and Trades Thread


Daniel_Doyce

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1 hour ago, jonebone said:

 

Either way, pucker those buttholes and keep witnessing history.  Still hasn't come to a head.

But Eric gloated yesterday that it was all over! 😛😉

Braveheart's mistake was that he was thinking like an investor that actually cares about losing money and completely underestimates the crowd on this one's willingness to see their money go down in flames for the opportunity to bankrupt some hedge funds along the way.  (with rage further fueled by the events of yesterday)

 

Definitely agree that the fat lady hasn't sung yet. 

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Just now, arch_8ngel said:

The other fascinating anomaly right now:  in terms of reporting positions (short or otherwise) the hedge funds have CONSIDERABLE incentive to lie, because the fine for misreporting is so much smaller than their potential losses if honest reports fuel the mania further.

 


So in other words, they can manipulate the market by lying and scare the memers into selling.

 

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30 minutes ago, Californication said:

I'll take a look. I don't like 538 though, their calculations on political numbers are notoriously bad despite being widely used. 

Actually, they were the only people who gave Trump a chance in 2016. I believe they had his chance of winning at 38% or something around there.

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5 minutes ago, ThePhleo said:


So in other words, they can manipulate the market by lying and scare the memers into selling.

 

Yes, that is exactly what they are currently incentivized to do.

Would you rather pay a few million in fines?  Or would you rather lose 10's of BILLIONS of dollars and have your fund blow up completely, and your name as a fund manager go down in history as the guy that lost that bet?

(and to that end -- I will not be at all surprised if significant white-collar crime is taking place for the same reasons of desperate self-preservation in the hopes that they can avoid jail time later)

Edited by arch_8ngel
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7 minutes ago, DoctorEncore said:

Also, the guy who's been the most visible during all this has been scamming everyone. He's a a licensed financial advisor, not some average dude day trader.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/29/famed-gamestop-bull-roaring-kitty-is-a-massachusetts-financial-advisor.html

"Licensed financial advisor" is a pretty low bar in terms of investment sophistication, for what it's worth.

In my book, that is really no different than "some average dude day trader".

EDIT: especially since he is just some worker-bee at a big insurance company. 😛 

Definitely not equivalent to someone at a major trading desk for instance.

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2 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

"Licensed financial advisor" is a pretty low bar in terms of investment sophistication, for what it's worth.

Agreed. But it certainly wasn't the image he was projecting (or allowing others to project about him). Even if I think the dude is shady, it's still funny to watch the hedge funds get blown up for irresponsible gambling.

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9 minutes ago, DoctorEncore said:

Agreed. But it certainly wasn't the image he was projecting (or allowing others to project about him). Even if I think the dude is shady, it's still funny to watch the hedge funds get blown up for irresponsible gambling.

Personally, my view on "licensed financial advisors" is that I think that are probably required to have about the level of options-trading sophistication as your average bus driver or school teacher.  

Especially if they work at a place like Mass Mutual where they are probably just selling annuities on commission.

 

That said -- dude is probably going to get fired and potentially lose his license, now that he was doxxed -- but with $13MM in cash, I doubt he cares, if he hadn't already quit anyway.

For what it's worth, though -- I don't think this guy was "scamming" the average joe -- his play all along was Burry-esque in being about participating in a position that blows up institutions that made bad bets they should never have been allowed to make in the first place (i.e. naked short selling).

He did his own homework on what was possible with the series of way OTM call options he picked, and his lottery tickets paid off.

(and quite frankly -- I'd be extremely suspicious of the intent of doxxing him at all -- the hedge funds on the losing side of the bet have been running an aggressive smear campaign against GME stock to try and save their asses -- no reason to believe that doesn't extend to trying to make DFV's life hell in the process)

Edited by arch_8ngel
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15 minutes ago, DoctorEncore said:

I have to say, I'm actually really impressed with the hold that's going on by all these day traders. I would 100% have exited by now. I'm also amazed that the stock is still 120% shorted. It seems like we're at a bit of an impasse.

 

That's the thing.

We have no idea what we're doing, and we're being led by people who *think* they know what they're doing, who are all being manipulated by a couple of guys who *definitely* know what they're doing.

Hi, my name is @ThePhleo and I have no idea what I'm doing, and I helped crashed the stock market.

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18 minutes ago, DoctorEncore said:

I have to say, I'm actually really impressed with the hold that's going on by all these day traders. I would 100% have exited by now. I'm also amazed that the stock is still 120% shorted. It seems like we're at a bit of an impasse.

These are the same people who found the he will not divide us flag by shia labeouf from weather patterns and airline routes. 

 

 

Edited by RegularGuyGamer
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