Wata NES pop report now available

[ExplodedHamster | 404]

Just now, WalterWhiteJr. said:

Why don't you get some class and stop obnoxiously defending something you are so clearly conflicted in?

I’m conflicted because I participate in the market? How does that make any sense? Aren’t you also a sealed game collector?

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

.

Edited November 30, 2021 by WalterWhiteJr.

[Seth | 168]

9 minutes ago, AdamW said:

Dragon Warrior has always been pretty cheap for what it is, hasn't it? From a quick search, raws seem to go for low to mid three figures, and the priciest copy HA ever sold was $2340, for a 1HP first print. That seems a very low price for a game that big. Seems to me like the market's already pricing in that it's pretty common?

Fair point—to a point. Over 70% of eBay sales of sealed NES games (and prices are actually higher on eBay than for comparable games at HA) are three-figure sales. So is starting the bidding for DW1 at $500 when it's the #8 most common sealed and graded NES game (out of 700+ games) consistent with the fact that this is a three-figure market with only occasional higher sales (but those sales just happen to be the ones obsessed over)? I don't think so. At this point, relative to all titles in the NES library, DW1 should be on the cheapest end, which means maxing out at $500 (at the most), not starting there. I would argue that DW1 is already overpriced at this auction starting point, though I've no doubt that many would buy it at $500 out of either (a) instinct, or (b) love of the game (DW1, not collecting).

Edited November 30, 2021 by RETRO

[Driftwood | 209]

@ExplodedHamster

@WalterWhiteJr.

let us maintain some illusion of civility here

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

You have publicly profited the most off of a sketchy market that you helped to build. To continue to incessantly defend that market and the sketchy practices that have been exposed is in poor taste. 

Edited November 30, 2021 by WalterWhiteJr.

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

1 minute ago, Driftwood said:

@ExplodedHamster

@WalterWhiteJr.

let us maintain some illusion of civility here

Okay. Fine. I have work to do anyway.

[Driftwood | 209]

[GPX | 1,370]

Ok I think I know the secret to a VGS thread blow out..

It isn’t because of Jobst.

It isn’t because of Dain.

It’s because of this simple formula:

[WATA + pop + price discussions]

=> bickering, popcorn watchers

=> more audiences, more bickering

=> vicious cycle

 

[Seth | 168]

.

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by RETRO

[ApebitMusic | 130]

2 minutes ago, RETRO said:

Fair point—to a point. Over 70% of eBay sales of sealed NES games (and prices are actually higher on eBay than for comparable games at HA) are three-figure sales. So is starting the bidding for DW1 at $500 when it's the #8 most common sealed and graded NES game (out of 700+ games) consistent with the fact that this is a three-figure market with only occasional higher sales (but those sales just happen to be the ones obsessed over)? I don't think so. At this point, relative to all titles in the NES library, DW1 should be on the cheapest end, which means maxing out at $500 (at the most), not starting there. I would argue that DW1 is already overpriced at this auction starting point, though I've no doubt that many would buy it at $500 out of either (a) instinct, or (b) love of the game (DW1, not collecting).

Retro, I'm asking honestly. Could you sum up the main crux of you opinion with all of this? Just in a sentence or two. 

To be a little dramatic about it, me it sounds something like "these prices are insane and all you sealed collectors are insane and this will never last and sell now before everything tumbles down to a fraction of what you could sell it for now". 

Is that not too far off?

[inasuma | 1,203]

9 minutes ago, RETRO said:

Don't do this. You and your friends are price-gougers bilking people for thousands. Don't attack data being sold (as part of a massive publication with much other content) for $2.90. It's sick.

Calling it "sick" to give away data is a bit verbose... it's old, unreliable data that will soon be made obsolete thanks to VGAs new pops anyway.

7 minutes ago, RETRO said:

Thank you for this. I love hard data. And I do think this proves my point.

This thread is so chaotic I can barely remember what your point was. lol

4 minutes ago, Code Monkey said:

Does anyone else have any opinions on the data?

I find it funny that only 6 games have total pops over 100. 

[Seth | 168]

.

[Gulag Joe | 584]

I will now do everything I can to destroy the video game collecting hobby all because some people don't know how to speculate! You better buy up all those mint condition CIB sports games before I do!

Here comes the rain, bitches!

[jonebone | 1,307]

Here's one I can do 1 for 1 since there aren't any variants associated with it (yet discovered at least):

TMNT 3 NES Pop Comparison

VGA Pop Report January 2015

1991, Konami, NES, White Nintendo Seal, Turtles III:The Manhattan Project, NTSC:

90(1), 85+(3), 85(7), 80+(1), 80(1), 75(2). = 15 Sealed Total

 

Wata Pop Report November 21

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles III: The Manhattan Project

0

0

0

0

0

6

1

5

6

1

2

0

21

 = 21 Total

These pops were always miniscule compared to other hobbies but close to relative demand.  Someone would upgrade and list their downgrade or you could find a raw one with patience and dedication.  Now the investors and sharks have piled in and there just simply won't be enough to go around on many of these.

Market will overreact and panic buy or FOMO on some things, but the truly desirable titles in desirable grades aren't going any where.

Edited November 30, 2021 by jonebone

[GPX | 1,370]

28 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

Of course it is ludicrous. Rarebucky has probably graded more games himself through VGA in the last decade than WATA has graded all games from all submitters period! 

And quite possibly he’s the major contributor to the grading crossovers from VGA to WATA..? I can’t imagine him sitting still and twiddling his thumbs, spectating only. 

[AdamW | 713]

5 minutes ago, RETRO said:

Fair point—to a point. Over 70% of eBay sales of sealed NES games (and prices are actually higher on eBay than for comparable games at HA) are three-figure sales. So is starting the bidding for DW1 at $500 when it's the #8 most common sealed and graded NES game (out of 700+ games) consistent with the fact that this is a three-figure market with only occasional higher sales (but those sales just happen to be the ones obsessed over)? I don't think so. At this point, relative to all titles in the NES library, DW1 should be on the cheapest end, which means maxing out at $500 (at the most), not starting there. I would argue that DW1 is already overpriced at this auction starting point, though I've no doubt that many would buy it at $500 out of either (a) instinct, or (b) love of the game (DW1, not collecting).

I mean, again you seem to be taking a weirdly narrow view of things and saying that only how common a game is should be factored into the "right" price for it. I don't buy US NES games, but if I did, I'd be much more interested in having SMB or SMB3 or Dragon Warrior than, I dunno, picks an apparently-low-pop-game-at-random Arkista's Ring (please replace random example with whatever obscure game you consider to be truly rare). I do buy Famicom games, and I absolutely want copies of all the Dragon Quests, and I'll pay a decent price for them even if some obscure game I never heard of is rarer, because they're Dragon Quest. I'm not going to buy the obscure game I never heard of just because it's rare, because I don't care about it.

I doubt the seller of that Dragon Warrior did obsessive research into populations. In my experience, it's a 50/50 toss-up whether eBay sellers spell the name of the damn game properly. They picked a price and went with it. If someone pays for it, then they reckon it was worth $500.

So, uh, sorry, we're rambling a bit here, but...what was your point again? You brought this auction up like it's going to be super indicative of...something. What result are you expecting? What do you think that result would show? What result would surprise you?

[Seth | 168]

1 minute ago, ApebitMusic said:

Is that not too far off?

Not even close. But happy to clarify what I've already made clear here repeatedly:

1. Video games are the most important new art form of my lifetime.
2. Video games deserve to be preserved and collected and displayed the way fine art is.
3. Because unlike conventional fine art video games were mass-produced, they have a good chance to become a fine art collecting category accessible to middle-class folks.
4. The chance of a healthy, stable, long-term sealed-and-graded collecting market is being destroyed by a small cadre of market predators who enable and encourage unethical grading, auctioneering, and selling practices and have formed discrete cabals online.
5. I approach all this as a gamer, collector, journalist, consumer advocate, and academic who does not sell sealed and graded games but does collect them, who believes a healthy market is based in data and not high-end resellers' Big Important Feelings and greed, and who takes ethics seriously because he has been an attorney for 20+ years without experiencing a single professional conduct complaint.

S.

[ExplodedHamster | 404]

2 hours ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

You are conflicted because you have publicly profited the most off of a market that you helped build with manipulation and deceit. 

See, here we go. Finally at least had the guts to say it out loud. Sorry, Driftwood, but I’m sick of it, so time to respond. 

All this shit for so long about “manipulation” and “deceit,” and really nothing to show for it other than using those words out of spite with no substance. I worked my ass off and hustled chasing games as a second job to accumulate what I did. I bought, I sold, I bought more with the profits, I cleaned 100 games a weekend in my basement, I did what I could to help what I thought he something I enjoyed and could help pay for my children’s education and fund a personal collection. I am not ashamed of that and I never imagine it would have gotten as crazy as it has.
 

What I have done is take those games and largely send them off to auction at various auction houses. I have no control over who bids what or what their motivations are for bidding. I don’t know what your motivations are in targeting me, or why you are so angry, but seriously enough is enough. If you want to talk about populations or demand or any of that, great. But cut the shit dancing around accusing me of things just because you’re mad at the world. 

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by ExplodedHamster

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

2 minutes ago, ExplodedHamster said:

See, here we go. Finally at least had the guts to say it out loud. Sorry, Driftwood, but I’m sick of it, so time to respond. 

All this shit for so long about “manipulation” and “deceit,” and really nothing to show for it other than using those words out of spite with no substance. I worked my ass off and hustled as a second job to accumulate what I did. I bought, I sold, I bought more with the profits, I cleaned 100 games a weekend in my basement, I did what I could to help what I thought he something I enjoyed and could help pay for my children’s education and fund a personal collection. I am not ashamed of that and I never imagine it would have gotten as crazy as it has.
 

What I have done is take those games and largely send them off to auction at various auction houses. I have no control over who bids what or what their motivations are for bidding. I don’t know what your motivations are in targeting me, or why you are so angry, but seriously enough is enough. If you want to talk about populations or demand or any of that, great. But cut the shit dancing around accusing me of things just because you’re mad at the world. 

 

I don't care what you DID. It is what you continue to do. It is poor taste. Go do something else instead of constantly defending the sketchy market and practices.

Edited November 30, 2021 by WalterWhiteJr.

[ExplodedHamster | 404]

9 minutes ago, GPX said:

And quite possibly he’s the major contributor to the grading crossovers from VGA to WATA..? I can’t imagine him sitting still and twiddling his thumbs, spectating only. 

RareBucky would rather eat himself slowly than cross a single game to WATA haha. He is firmly Team VGA. He has sold a lot to people who have, though.

[Seth | 168]

12 minutes ago, AdamW said:

mean, again you seem to be taking a weirdly narrow view of things and saying that only how common a game is should be factored into the "right" price for it. I don't buy US NES games, but if I did, I'd be much more interested in having SMB or SMB3 or Dragon Warrior than, I dunno, picks an apparently-low-pop-game-at-random Arkista's Ring (please replace random example with whatever obscure game you consider to be truly rare). I do buy Famicom games, and I absolutely want copies of all the Dragon Quests, and I'll pay a decent price for them even if some obscure game I never heard of is rarer, because they're Dragon Quest. I'm not going to buy the obscure game I never heard of just because it's rare, because I don't care about it.

I doubt the seller of that Dragon Warrior did obsessive research into populations. In my experience, it's a 50/50 toss-up whether eBay sellers spell the name of the damn game properly. They picked a price and went with it. If someone pays for it, then they reckon it was worth $500.

So, uh, sorry, we're rambling a bit here, but...what was your point again? You brought this auction up like it's going to be super indicative of...something. What result are you expecting? What do you think that result would show? What result would surprise you?

I see why we're talking past one another. OK, so here are the categories of people who collect video games:

1. THE GAMER. Collects video games by buying, opening, and playing any game they want to own. They are not interested in games they don't enjoy playing, or sealed/graded games in any capacity.
2. THE CASUAL COLLECTOR. Collects graded but unsealed games (CIBs) because they are more accessible financially. They tend to be three-figure collectors and tend to buy games they love.
3. THE COMMITTED COLLECTOR. Collects sealed and graded games but, because they aren't a reseller, they have to be frugal—as every purchase is a straight "loss" of money. They tend to be three-figure collectors and tend to buy games they personally love.
4. THE RESELLER. Will buy anything they can profit from, for whatever console and in whatever condition and in whatever submarket (CIB or sealed). A small number of games they personally love they hold back for their PC (personal collection), but they would pretty much sell anything for the right price so they always want and need the market to go up—they can't keep buying games otherwise (because they need the money from sales to do so).
5. THE INVESTOR. Only buys high-grade sealed because they are seeking a high middle- or long-term profit.

So, let's imagine someone who loves DW1.

98% of the time (estimate) that means they're a gamer, and they "collected" DW1 by buying and opening and playing it.

Maybe 1.5% of the time, a DW1 lover is a collector-class individual—which means they either bought a CIB or a sealed copy that was nice enough for display (say WATA 8.5 and above, but no need whatsoever for a 9.6 or 9.8 investment-grade article).

Maybe 0.5% of the time, the DW1 lover is a seller or investor. The seller just needs something they can sell at a profit, which is likely (like the collector, albeit for different reasons) anything above an 8.5 WATA.

Only the investor needs that 9.6 or 9.8, but they should also realize that their consumer base is almost non-existent.

It's also only the investor who really cares about "historical significance," as everyone else either buys a game because they love it (THE GAMER, THE CASUAL COLLECTOR, and THE COMMITTED COLLECTOR) or because they think others do, regardless of the game's "historical significance" (THE RESELLER).

I would take Arkista's Ring over Dragon Warrior 10 times out of 10 because I'm a collector and I like Arkista's Ring way more as a game. Like way more. Most sealed and graded video game buyers are like me: they buy what they like. And with 700+ NES games, the chance that Dragon Warrior is among their favorites is still quite low statistically.

Edited November 30, 2021 by RETRO

[GPX | 1,370]

5 minutes ago, RETRO said:

Not even close. But happy to clarify what I've already made clear here repeatedly:

1. Video games are the most important new art form of my lifetime.
2. Video games deserve to be preserved and collected and displayed the way fine art is.
3. Because unlike conventional fine art video games were mass-produced, they have a good chance to become a fine art collecting category accessible to middle-class folks.
4. The chance of a healthy, stable, long-term sealed-and-graded collecting market is being destroyed by a small cadre of market predators who enable and encourage unethical grading, auctioneering, and selling practices and have formed discrete cabals online.
5. I approach all this as a gamer, collector, journalist, consumer advocate, and academic who does not sell sealed and graded games but does collect them, who believes a healthy market is based in data and not high-end resellers' Big Important Feelings and greed, and who takes ethics seriously because he has been an attorney for 20+ years without experiencing a single professional conduct complaint.

S.

I think your heart is in the right place advocating against “predators”. I tend to call them market manipulators, personally. Though I stress to you again, your data research is heavily biased against the lower-end of the collecting pool. The rarest and most holy grails of graded games, in the recent years, are more likely sold via private sales, and not through Ebay. This is a concept you need to grasp, otherwise, no serious or long-term sealed collectors will take you seriously in conversations.

The games you are researching on are not the same high-end items that are going crazy bonkers in the current auction houses 2021 via WATA grading. How much is it organic growth? Well I definitely agree with you that some of it is likely 100% bulldust. But also likely there is some truth in the rising of graded games prices.

[GPX | 1,370]

4 minutes ago, ExplodedHamster said:

RareBucky would rather eat himself slowly than cross a single game to WATA haha. He is firmly Team VGA. He has sold a lot to people who have, though.

That’s interesting to me. Why would he not give WATA a try? Something he has against Deniz?

[AdamW | 713]

@RETROthat was a lot of words that didn't answer the questions I asked you, though...

(also, I don't appear to fit into any of your categories, so I feel personally slighted. :>)

[Gloves | 11,790]

1 minute ago, AdamW said:

@RETROthat was a lot of words that didn't answer the questions I asked you, though...

(also, I don't appear to fit into any of your categories, so I feel personally slighted. :>)

Apparently I'm "casual".