inasuma | 1,203 Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said: At this point in time, there is nothing that Deniz/WATA can say to earn my trust or respect. That ship sailed. Unfortunately, I think I'm in the same boat. Which is a shame because they make a great physical product. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApebitMusic | 130 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, RETRO said: OK, market predators, the time of testing has come. Dragon Warrior (NES) is a great game. It was critically acclaimed. It has historic significance. It has many fans—in fact the Dragon Quest series is one of the most popular video game franchises in the world. But we now know that WATA has graded eighty-nine Dragon Warriors in the last 36 months, making it (as RETRO said it was months ago, per hard data market research) one of the Top 10 most common NES titles in sealed and graded condition. We don't know how many additional sealed Dragon Warriors are still unlogged in WATA's year-long backlog; we don't know how many sealed un-crossed-over Dragon Warriors were graded by VGA in the last 13 years (including the 10 years before WATA existed and the three years during which PriceCharting.com shows that VGA-graded games continue to be about half the total market); we don't know whether sealed Dragon Warriors will continue to be graded at the frantic, almost lunatic pace they have been since 2018; we only know that the number of Dragon Warriors will be in the hundreds (at least) by 2026, and possibly the very (very) low thousands. We also know that about 40% of WATA-graded Dragon Warriors reach near-mint status, a pretty typical breakdown for an NES game, per RETRO research. $500 is the starting price for this VGA Dragon Warrior just listed on eBay. How high will you bid it up now, market predators? Or will you stay away altogether, as the data would suggest you should? What do you think one of hundreds of near-mint Dragon Warriors is worth in a market where only 5-10 buyers appear to bid on any one item? So Retro, since some of us are "predators", I'm curious what that makes you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth | 168 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Code Monkey said: Just personal conversations talking to people. My data could be wrong or just a biased slice of the overall market but I can only base numbers on what I see. Code Monkey, I am glad you have clarified your perspective. Here is mine: I track games in 25 markets, not just one, as you say you do. VGA games continue to make up about half the market, not the 0% you are seeing by only using HA. So the idea that VGA would grade fewer uncrossed games in 13 years than WATA has in 3 years (as Gulag Joe insisted) is ludicrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth | 168 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, ApebitMusic said: So Retro, since some of us are "predators", I'm curious what that makes you? Oh, I wasn't referring to anyone here specifically. I was referring to the Facebook "High-End" group. Some of them lurk here. I have clarified this before, but perhaps should have done so in my last post, sorry. I don't know what I am besides a collector and a journalist. All I know is that I don't sell games—ever—let alone speculate in this market or try to hype up the market. But I do collect (I have many WATA and VGA games) and I do follow the market as a journalist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, RETRO said: Code Monkey, I am glad you have clarified your perspective. Here is mine: I track games in 25 markets, not just one, as you say you do. VGA games continue to make up about half the market, not the 0% you are seeing by only using HA. So the idea that VGA would grade fewer uncrossed games in 13 years than WATA has in 3 years (as Gulag Joe insisted) is ludicrous. Of course it is ludicrous. Rarebucky has probably graded more games himself through VGA in the last decade than WATA has graded all games from all submitters period! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inasuma | 1,203 Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said: Of course it is ludicrous. Rarebucky has probably graded more games himself through VGA in the last decade than WATA has graded all games from all submitters period! The last certifiedlink proved this is... true. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplodedHamster | 404 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said: Of course it is ludicrous. Rarebucky has probably graded more games himself through VGA in the last decade than WATA has graded all games from all submitters period! A lot of RareBucky’s supply got raided very early in the process by people who converted them to WATA. He was selling stuff left and right because he thought it was a momentary blip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, ExplodedHamster said: A lot of RareBucky’s supply got raided very early in the process by people who converted them to WATA. He was selling stuff left and right because he thought it was a momentary blip. Were you one of those raiders? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulag Joe | 584 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 41 minutes ago, RETRO said: And all I'm saying is that the "cross-over" phenomenon is one pushed by a small group of resellers who think—not incorrectly—that WATA games sell for more, all things being equal (which they shouldn't, but they do, even though VGA has fewer grading errors and grades slightly more strictly). So I believe that, to you, it seems like "most" VGA games get crossed over, but I think you've also been directed to the fact that your set is not representative and you deny that. So we're at an impasse. But if you want to find hard data and get the facts right, I can at least try to point you in the right direction in a friendly way. Consider: if all VGA games from 2018 onward—this wouldn't cover the decade from 2008 to 2018, but you're ignoring that decade of VGA grading anyway—were immediately crossed to WATA before going on the market, PriceCharting.com should probably show few VGA games coming to market post-2018. Now look up, say, Boulder Dash (a randomly chosen NES game) on PriceCharting.com. Does your theory, which requires almost no VGA games at market from 2020 or 2021, hold up? Most people I know resubmitted their VGA games to Wata because they had games that were graded VGA 80+ for having a scuffed seal. The harshness of VGA putting immense weight on the seal was perceived as illogical and is arguably how Wata itself came to be. Those resubs came back 9.4/9.6 A or A+ This is why many of us thought that the VGA 95 SM64 might command a higher premium than the original million dollar Wata SM64. But you can hang on to the belief that everyone looked to crossover to "get rich" even though the bulk of the crossover submissions happened when Wata initially launched. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonebone | 1,307 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Here's some real data for conversation, and free of charge. VGA to Wata Report Comparison on SMB2 NES (I don't have SMB3) VGA As of February 17, 2016, White Oval Seal Copies: 1989, Nintendo, NES, White Nintendo Seal, Super Mario Bros 2, NTSC: 95(1), 90+(1), 90(4), 85+(19), Q85+(1), 85(31), 80+(9), 80(1), 75+(1), 75(1), 60(1). Total = 69 Sealed / 1 QualifiedVGA As of June 25, 2014, Black Round Seal Copies: 1988, Nintendo, NES, Black Nintendo Seal, Super Mario Bros 2, NTSC: Q95(1), 90+(2), 90(4), 85+(7), Q85+(1), 85(11), 80+(3), 80(2), 75(2). Total = 31 Sealed / 2 Qualified Wata as of November 1, 2021 Super Mario Bros. 2 6 5 6 4 7 21 18 15 21 11 3 0 117 Granted the VGA populations are a bit dated, but those were fairly mature pulls at the time. I wouldn't expect anymore than 5-10 a year added to that population. It is impossible to know how many got crossed but you can infer there were at least 110 sealed VGA SMB2 copies and now 117 Wata copies. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamW | 713 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 20 minutes ago, RETRO said: OK, market predators, the time of testing has come. Dragon Warrior (NES) is a great game. It was critically acclaimed. It has historic significance. It has many fans—in fact the Dragon Quest series is one of the most popular video game franchises in the world. But we now know that WATA has graded eighty-nine Dragon Warriors in the last 36 months, making it (as RETRO said it was months ago, per hard data market research) one of the Top 10 most common NES titles in sealed and graded condition. $500 is the starting price for this VGA Dragon Warrior just listed on eBay. How high will you bid it up now, market predators? Or will you stay away altogether, as the data would suggest you should? What do you think one of hundreds of near-mint Dragon Warriors is worth in a market where only 5-10 buyers appear to bid on any one item? Dragon Warrior has always been pretty cheap for what it is, hasn't it? From a quick search, raws seem to go for low to mid three figures, and the priciest copy HA ever sold was $2340, for a 1HP first print. That seems a very low price for a game that big. Seems to me like the market's already pricing in that it's pretty common? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplodedHamster | 404 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 (edited) 58 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said: Were you one of those raiders? Nope, I bought like 5 games from him and sold like 2 of them. Edited November 30, 2021 by ExplodedHamster 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth | 168 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said: But you can hang on to the belief that everyone looked to crossover to "get rich" even though the bulk of the crossover submissions happened when Wata initially launched. Why do you refuse to use PriceCharting.com? More VGA Hydlides came to market in *just 2013 and 2014*—when WATA wasn't even a glimmer in Deniz's eye—than WATA has ever graded. How do you benefit from refusing to do research? I'm asking seriously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GetTheGreg | 105 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, AdamW said: Dragon Warrior has always been pretty cheap for what it is, hasn't it? From a quick search, raws seem to go for low to mid three figures, and the priciest copy HA ever sold was $2340, for a 1HP first print. That seems a very low price for a game that big. Seems to me like the market's already pricing in that it's pretty common? 1HP or bust as far as I'm concerned on DW1. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, ExplodedHamster said: Nope, I bought like 5 games from him and sold like 2 of them. I do remember you constantly showing off your sealed graded games and asking premium prices, though! Then I remember soon after you sold, when the market shot up, you became excessively bitter and started attacking people and claiming all you ever cared about was “love of the game.” Think you have the wrong guy... I still have 99% of my collection. I am not in it for the money. I do remember you posting some obnoxious post on FB after you sold all those games for crazy money that you were going to sail into the sunset and stop focusing on buying and selling games. That lasted long huh? You have been more active on here and FB than I have ever seen. Weird. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplodedHamster | 404 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, Maertens29 said: 1HP or bust as far as I'm concerned on DW1. Kinda crazy there are ZERO 9.8 DW 2HP variants. Those boxes were so heavy, they were not made to last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth | 168 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, jonebone said: Here's some real data for conversation, and free of charge. Don't do this. You and your friends are price-gougers bilking people for thousands. Don't attack data being sold (as part of a massive publication with much other content) for $2.90. It's sick. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GetTheGreg | 105 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 If @ExplodedHamsteris going sailing with that Mario money, I demand an invite. Because fuck it. I'll go sailing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, ExplodedHamster said: Nope, I bought like 5 games from him and sold like 2 of them. I do remember you constantly showing off your sealed graded games and asking premium prices, though! Then I remember soon after you sold, when the market shot up, you became excessively bitter and started attacking people and claiming all you ever cared about was “love of the game.” I also think its REALLY sketchy that you sold alllll of those games at insanely high prices and they have all been downhill since. Just a weird coinkydink. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GetTheGreg | 105 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, ExplodedHamster said: Kinda crazy there are ZERO 9.8 DW 2HP variants. Those boxes were so heavy, they were not made to last. I noticed that too haha. Factory likely creased all of them subtly just to fit the inserts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth | 168 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, jonebone said: Granted the VGA populations are a bit dated, but those were fairly mature pulls at the time. I wouldn't expect anymore than 5-10 a year added to that population. It is impossible to know how many got crossed but you can infer there were at least 110 sealed VGA SMB2 copies and now 117 Wata copies. Thank you for this. I love hard data. And I do think this proves my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplodedHamster | 404 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 (edited) 34 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said: Think you have the wrong guy... I still have 99% of my collection. I am not in it for the money. I do remember you posting some obnoxious post on FB after you sold all those games for crazy money that you were going to sail into the sunset and stop focusing on buying and selling games. That lasted long huh? You have been more active on here and FB than I have ever seen. Weird. Nope, I never said that? Why would I go away? Edited November 30, 2021 by ExplodedHamster 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplodedHamster | 404 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, WalterWhiteJr. said: I also think its REALLY sketchy that you sold alllll of those games at insanely high prices and they have all been downhill since. Just a weird coinkydink. So you think I paid 300k in buyer’s fees to buy my own games? Man, that’s brilliant! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, ExplodedHamster said: Nope, I never said that. Sorry your reading comprehension sucks. Why don’t you identify yourself btw. Why don't you get some class and stop obnoxiously defending something you are so clearly conflicted in? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Code Monkey | 2,011 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Does anyone else have any opinions on the data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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