Wata NES pop report now available

[tidaldreams | 654]

this is going to turn into the heritage auctions thread where i can't keep up anymore 

[Seth | 168]

17 minutes ago, AdamW said:

I think you're being weirdly simple-minded in this "VGA was around for way longer so it must have graded more games!" take. You don't seem to be considering at all the possibility that grading got massively more popular in the time since WATA showed up - which is strongly suggested by the fact that neither VGA nor WATA had months-long backlogs before this year, but now both of them do. You also don't seem to be considering the likely effect of mass news coverage of games - specifically WATA-graded Super Mario games - being sold for huge amounts of money.

Adam, this is fair. I agree that there are factors we don't know that could reduce the VGA population to something other than an arithmetic multiple of the WATA pops. These factors include cross-overs, VGA gaining in popularity only after WATA was founded, increased interest in the hobby over time (even if it has stayed very small overall), and so on. As you note, I'm only speaking to/of (maybe rarely for) those trying to make buying decisions. So we have to go with probabilities. But I don't disagree with what you say here as a philosophical/hypothetical matter.

[Code Monkey | 2,011]

8 minutes ago, RETRO said:

You don't even realize how insanely cultish this fact-free claim sounds. Yes, there are cross-overs, but to use that as proof that WATA data is total population data is so dishonest that it's breathtaking.

So if you're not motivated by facts and you're not motivated by money, you're going to have to clarify why you feel the need to spread disinformation. Because I don't get it, otherwise.

I'll pick just one to reply so that this doesn't turn into 25 pages of responses to you.

I didn't spread any disinformation, I'm simply saying I think most of the Wata grades are from existing VGA grades. It may have been misinformation if you can prove me wrong but it certainly wasn't disinformation.

All we want to do is have friendly discussions here, if I get my facts wrong, just let me know. Don't assume I'm trying to end the world because I dropped a crumb on the floor.

[Gulag Joe | 584]

26 minutes ago, Driftwood said:

What new hobby interest?

are you expecting the kids today playing fortnite to mortgage their house in 20 years to get ahold of (insert nes game here)

IT’S JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN

 

People have been saying stuff like this about sealed games on these boards for at least a decade and here we are today witnessing sealed games selling for 6 and 7 figures.

But..."IT’S JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN"

[Driftwood | 209]

2 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said:

People have been saying stuff like this about sealed games on these boards for at least a decade and here we are today witnessing sealed games selling for 6 and 7 figures.

But..."IT’S JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN"

Only people throwing money around like that came in from other hobbies and have no interest in the heritage or significance of our passion...

let me run head first to a payout, consequences be damned.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Driftwood

[Seth | 168]

Just now, Code Monkey said:

I'll pick just one to reply so that this doesn't turn into 25 pages of responses to you.

I didn't spread any disinformation, I'm simply saying I think most of the Wata grades are from existing VGA grades. It may have been misinformation if you can prove me wrong but it certainly wasn't disinformation.

All we want to do is have friendly discussions here, if I get my facts wrong, just let me know. Don't assume I'm trying to end the world because I dropped a crumb on the floor.

And all I'm saying is that the "cross-over" phenomenon is one pushed by a small group of resellers who think—not incorrectly—that WATA games sell for more, all things being equal (which they shouldn't, but they do, even though VGA has fewer grading errors and grades slightly more strictly). So I believe that, to you, it seems like "most" VGA games get crossed over, but I think you've also been directed to the fact that your set is not representative and you deny that. So we're at an impasse.

But if you want to find hard data and get the facts right, I can at least try to point you in the right direction in a friendly way. Consider: if all VGA games from 2018 onward—this wouldn't cover the decade from 2008 to 2018, but you're ignoring that decade of VGA grading anyway—were immediately crossed to WATA before going on the market, PriceCharting.com should probably show few VGA games coming to market post-2018. Now look up, say, Boulder Dash (a randomly chosen NES game) on PriceCharting.com. Does your theory, which requires almost no VGA games at market from 2020 or 2021, hold up?

[Seth | 168]

5 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said:

People have been saying stuff like this about sealed games on these boards for at least a decade and here we are today witnessing sealed games selling for 6 and 7 figures.

You have been told over and over and over that top-end sales don't represent a market. Even Dave Robbins concedes this. You ignore what you are told because you don't want to hear it. Your ignorance on this point is no basis for gloating.

[ExplodedHamster | 404]

1 minute ago, Driftwood said:

Only people throwing money around like that came in from other hobbies and have no interest in the heritage or significance of our passion...

let me run head first to a payout, consequences be damned.

This is the crux of it. People don’t want games to rise in value, or for “non-gamers” who don’t “love the games” to come in and change the landscape. All totally understandable, and it happens in every collectible when this transition is made. 

But that doesn’t mean people can will more of these items into existence. The evidence on the rarity of these items is long and storied, particularly when compared to other collectibles. There just aren’t a lot out there, and so it won’t take that great an increase or decrease in demand to shift the market. 

[Mijael | 347]

SMB3 is a no brainer . People will pay more and more for high grade copies then the people who cant afford the high grade copies  will start to pay more and more for the mid  and lower grade copies

[Driftwood | 209]

6 minutes ago, ExplodedHamster said:

This is the crux of it. People don’t want games to rise in value, or for “non-gamers” who don’t “love the games” to come in and change the landscape. All totally understandable, and it happens in every collectible when this transition is made. 

But that doesn’t mean people can will more of these items into existence. The evidence on the rarity of these items is long and storied, particularly when compared to other collectibles. There just aren’t a lot out there, and so it won’t take that great an increase or decrease in demand to shift the market. 

I don’t give a fuck if prices rise (naturally)

I’m concerned you’re going to cause a crash...

Edited November 30, 2021 by Driftwood

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

do we really care that much about these reports? It’s still the same scummy resellers buying and selling to each other at the high end and manipulating prices. I don’t see these reports doing much tbh. 

Edited November 30, 2021 by WalterWhiteJr.

[Seth | 168]

9 minutes ago, ExplodedHamster said:

This is the crux of it. People don’t want games to rise in value, or for “non-gamers” who don’t “love the games” to come in and change the landscape. All totally understandable, and it happens in every collectible when this transition is made. 

But that doesn’t mean people can will more of these items into existence. The evidence on the rarity of these items is long and storied, particularly when compared to other collectibles. There just aren’t a lot out there, and so it won’t take that great an increase or decrease in demand to shift the market. 

I think we're getting to the crux of it here, as you say. "Rarity" only has meaning relative to the matter of supply and demand. Demand for the highest end of each NES title has been provably small—most auctions have 5-10 bidders—while this WATA pop report suggests that supply of the games that even get 5 to 10 bidders (most get fewer) is at least in the hundreds. That presents a massive market issue, as for high prices to be maintained you can't have one copy for each person who wants one, you need a multiple (i.e., 2x or 3x or 4x or whatever the number of buyers as compared to copies available).

So far, WATA has (a) raised prices for the highest-end items, but critically (b) not expanded the market in terms of buyers (indeed, I'd argue it has priced many people out and brought bad press to the hobby, artificially depressing demand in terms of number of buyers—a distinct "demand" metric as compared to "top price paid").

The result is that when high-end resellers say the number of buyers will explode—when it hasn't for 15 years—it rings hollow.

But I agree with you that if you suddenly had 10x or 20x the number of buyers for the highest-end items, it would at least give that niche market a chance to survive as it is (with regular four-figure sales and semi-regular sales above that). Where you're wrong is that a 10x or 20x buyer increase is not small and shows no sign of happening.

Edited November 30, 2021 by RETRO

[inasuma | 1,203]

1 hour ago, RETRO said:

Huh. So why are there only 10 bidders whenever one comes up for auction? And why are you using the "237" figure when this pop report confirms that 237 (3 years of WATA) is now the floor for how many VGA copies there are from 13 years of VGA grading, so we're talking about a bare minimum of 574 buyers you'd need for the SMB3 market to even be at perfect equilibrium (i.e., everyone who wants one can get one, which would equal a collapsed market)? I think you need to prove that there are 1,500+ avid SMB3 buyers right now to suggest there's a market for the 575 SMB3s out there, though as the number is almost certainly more like 1,000 you'd really need to produce 4,500+ buyers—none of whom can be CIB collectors, mind you! Has to all be sealed collectors. (You'd still have to explain why almost none of these buyers ever show up to auctions, though.)

I've been assuming everyone here understands basic market dynamics, but if we need to take a step back to review, lemme know.

I really don't understand how you're doing this math... the scale of graded games over time is not linear. Just because Wata has graded 237 over three years doesn't automatically mean we will double that for VGA. That's purely speculation on your part, regardless of your personal feelings on the matter.

[Seth | 168]

5 minutes ago, inasuma said:

I really don't understand how you're doing this math... the scale of graded games over time is not linear. Just because Wata has graded 237 over three years doesn't automatically mean we will double that for VGA. That's purely speculation on your part, regardless of your personal feelings on the matter.

I already conceded to Adam, above, that we can't know if 234 SMB3s in 36 months for WATA equals 234 (or more) SMB3s graded by VGA over 13 years. I just know that PriceCharting.com shows VGA sales as about 50% of sealed-and-graded NES sales since WATA was founded, and definitionally VGA was 100% of sales for the decade before that, so a conservative—in fact highly conservative—estimate for those who need to make hard buying decisions now is that at least as many VGA graded copies of SMB3 stayed as VGA-graded items over 13 years as WATA produced in its first, backlog-plagued 36 months (recall that that 234 figure does not include any as-yet unlogged copies in WATA's massive, year-long backlog).

At issue here is not my "feelings," but necessary speculation based on the hard data we have. The folks working off their "feelings" are led by Jonas and his crew.

ON EDIT: Linear math (arithmetic math) would have caused me to say that there are 433% the VGA copies of SMB3 as WATA copies (13/3 = 4.33; 4.33 x 234 copies equals 1,000+ copies). I did not do that. I was wildly conservative in my math—even irresponsibly so—and still got attacked.

Edited November 30, 2021 by RETRO

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

Also, my distrust for Wata runs so deep that I take everything with a grain of salt, especially these reports.

[Seth | 168]

9 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

do we really care that much about these reports? It’s still the same scummy resellers buying and selling to each other at the high end and manipulating prices. I don’t see these reports doing much tbh. 

You are correct. The market predators can't be stopped. That's probably why I'm so angry—because I know that nothing, not even my deliberately provocative self-righteousness and condescension to them (coupled with facts, data, and research) can slow their dishonest roll. They will continue on as they have until this market or its reputation are destroyed, likely both. And the whole time they'll say they're "not motivated by money."

[Driftwood | 209]

1 minute ago, RETRO said:

You are correct. The market predators can't be stopped. That's probably why I'm so angry—because I know that nothing, not even my deliberately provocative self-righteousness and condescension to them (coupled with facts, data, and research) can slow their dishonest roll. They will continue on as they have until this market or its reputation are destroyed, likely both. And the whole time they'll say they're "not motivated by money."

100%

[Code Monkey | 2,011]

13 minutes ago, RETRO said:

And all I'm saying is that the "cross-over" phenomenon is one pushed by a small group of resellers who think—not incorrectly—that WATA games sell for more, all things being equal (which they shouldn't, but they do, even though VGA has fewer grading errors and grades slightly more strictly). So I believe that, to you, it seems like "most" VGA games get crossed over, but I think you've also been directed to the fact that your set is not representative and you deny that. So we're at an impasse.

But if you want to find hard data and get the facts right, I can at least try to point you in the right direction in a friendly way. Consider: if all VGA games from 2018 onward—this wouldn't cover the decade from 2008 to 2018, but you're ignoring that decade of VGA grading anyway—were immediately crossed to WATA before going on the market, PriceCharting.com should probably show few VGA games coming to market post-2018. Now look up, say, Boulder Dash (a randomly chosen NES game) on PriceCharting.com. Does your theory, which requires almost no VGA games at market from 2020 or 2021, hold up?

Okay, I can do this.

Wata games don't sell for more, it's the simple fact that Wata games sell (on this platform) and VGA games don't sell at all (on this platform). You're assuming I as a collector am willing to shop somewhere like eBay. I'm not and I don't care if I can save thousands, I don't want to and I don't have to, I prefer to shop somewhere like a well known auction house. This is what you're not understanding, I don't have access to VGA games on the platforms I use, they don't exist. I'm not trying to shift any markets, I'm just buying what's available which, admittedly for me is zero because I haven't actually purchased any yet. I just grade from my personal collection.

Okay, now what I'm going to do next is just point out ways you're assuming things I'm not saying, in the hopes that it minimizes your replies in the future because I can't keep up an argument with you if you're not going to limit it to what I'm actually typing. Here goes.....

What you're assuming: I go with Wata because I can sell the games for more.

What I'm saying: I go with Wata because I want to sell my games on platforms with which I'm comfortable.

What you're assuming: I'm denying my set of data are representative of the whole.

What I'm saying: ......actually I didn't say anything like that. I've been collecting (actually collecting) since before VGA existed, I know what's out there.

What your'e assuming: I'm ignoring VGA grading 2008 - 2018.

What I'm saying: No I'm not, I just don't have access to purchase VGA games on my platforms of choice.

What you're assuming: I said ALL games Wata graded were crossed from VGA

What I'm saying: MOST games were crossed (I think)

 

I'm trying to show you that you're analyzing something someone said and then assuming that is the only thing that person thinks and takes it to the absolute extreme of what they must think overall. No, man, we're just here to hang out and sell a game if we feel like it. You can contribute too if you don't feel like arguing with everyone.

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

Just now, RETRO said:

You are correct. The market predators can't be stopped. That's probably why I'm so angry—because I know that nothing, not even my deliberately provocative self-righteousness and condescension to them (coupled with facts, data, and research) can slow their dishonest roll. They will continue on as they have until this market or its reputation are destroyed, likely both. And the whole time they'll say they're "not motivated by money."

The reputation of the market is certainly tainted. The jobst video and all the ensuing coverage made that happen. Also LOL that Wata never gave a proper response. Pathetic. In terms of the market, it is either the resellers or idiots that fall for this crap. I will never be buying a graded game. I have a few from years ago. I will not be a victim of their nonsense.

[inasuma | 1,203]

5 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

Also, my distrust for Wata runs so deep that I take everything with a grain of salt, especially these reports.

And no offense to Deniz, but even if Wata came through this one time in releasing this report, they've demonstrated repeatedly how inconsistent they are. Deniz said in the pop report announcement that they are actively working to change consistency in communication, but what I really hope is for consistency in timelines.

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

Just now, Code Monkey said:

Okay, I can do this.

Wata games don't sell for more, it's the simple fact that Wata games sell (on this platform) and VGA games don't sell at all (on this platform). You're assuming I as a collector am willing to shop somewhere like eBay. I'm not and I don't care if I can save thousands, I don't want to and I don't have to, I prefer to shop somewhere like a well known auction house. This is what you're not understanding, I don't have access to VGA games on the platforms I use, they don't exist. I'm not trying to shift any markets, I'm just buying what's available which, admittedly for me is zero because I haven't actually purchased any yet. I just grade from my personal collection.

Okay, now what I'm going to do next is just point out ways you're assuming things I'm not saying, in the hopes that it minimizes your replies in the future because I can't keep up an argument with you if you're not going to limit it to what I'm actually typing. Here goes.....

What you're assuming: I go with Wata because I can sell the games for more.

What I'm saying: I go with Wata because I want to sell my games on platforms with which I'm comfortable.

What you're assuming: I'm denying my set of data are representative of the whole.

What I'm saying: ......actually I didn't say anything like that. I've been collecting (actually collecting) since before VGA existed, I know what's out there.

What your'e assuming: I'm ignoring VGA grading 2008 - 2018.

What I'm saying: No I'm not, I just don't have access to purchase VGA games on my platforms of choice.

What you're assuming: I said ALL games Wata graded were crossed from VGA

What I'm saying: MOST games were crossed (I think)

 

I'm trying to show you that you're analyzing something someone said and then assuming that is the only thing that person thinks and takes it to the absolute extreme of what they must think overall. No, man, we're just here to hang out and sell a game if we feel like it. You can contribute too if you don't feel like arguing with everyone.

Why do you think most games were crossed? Based on everyone that i have talked to in this area, i would say less than half have crossed. I have crossed THE OTHER WAY. VGA > WATA all day erry day.

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162]

Just now, inasuma said:

And no offense to Deniz, but even if Wata came through this one time in releasing this report, they've demonstrated repeatedly how inconsistent they are. Deniz said in the pop report announcement that they are actively working to change consistency in communication, but what I really hope is for consistency in timelines.

At this point in time, there is nothing that Deniz/WATA can say to earn my trust or respect. That ship sailed.

[ApebitMusic | 130]

44 minutes ago, Driftwood said:

there are collectors who have no interest in sharing or discussing the size of their collection. 
there are many raw copies still in back wall hobby shops, to assume these pop reports are reflective of the rarity or definitive of numbers is inaccurate

Of course you can't claim these numbers are definitive. But to me they indicate these are rarer than some people insist they are and that there are cases and cases of these sealed games out there waiting to be discovered. 

[Seth | 168]

OK, market predators, the time of testing has come.

Dragon Warrior (NES) is a great game. It was critically acclaimed. It has historic significance. It has many fans—in fact the Dragon Quest series is one of the most popular video game franchises in the world.

But we now know that WATA has graded eighty-nine Dragon Warriors in the last 36 months, making it (as RETRO said it was months ago, per hard data market research) one of the Top 10 most common NES titles in sealed and graded condition.

We don't know how many additional sealed Dragon Warriors are still unlogged in WATA's year-long backlog; we don't know how many sealed un-crossed-over Dragon Warriors were graded by VGA in the last 13 years (including the 10 years before WATA existed and the three years during which PriceCharting.com shows that VGA-graded games continue to be about half the total market); we don't know whether sealed Dragon Warriors will continue to be graded at the frantic, almost lunatic pace they have been since 2018; we only know that the number of Dragon Warriors will be in the hundreds (at least) by 2026, and possibly the very (very) low thousands.

We also know that about 40% of WATA-graded Dragon Warriors reach near-mint status, a pretty typical breakdown for an NES game, per RETRO research.

$500 is the starting price for this VGA Dragon Warrior just listed on eBay. How high will you bid it up now, market predators? Or will you stay away altogether, as the data would suggest you should? What do you think one of hundreds of near-mint Dragon Warriors is worth in a market where only 5-10 buyers appear to bid on any one item?

Edited November 30, 2021 by RETRO

[Code Monkey | 2,011]

5 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

Why do you think most games were crossed? Based on everyone that i have talked to in this area, i would say less than half have crossed. I have crossed THE OTHER WAY. VGA > WATA all day erry day.

Just personal conversations talking to people. My data could be wrong or just a biased slice of the overall market but I can only base numbers on what I see.