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  • 2 months later...

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/04/business/crypto-super-bowl-ads/index.html

Super Bowl LVI was the crypto world’s coming out party. Buzzy firms made bold pitches last year, and shelled out millions of dollars on ads encouraging viewers not to be afraid of this new-fangled digital investment — and for God’s sake don’t miss out on this exciting opportunity!
 
Then the real pain started.
 
A year ago, FTX fetched a private valuation of around $32 billion. Its Super Bowl ads featured Tom Brady and Gisele Bundchen. Another FTX ad featured Larry David in a role that, a year later, appears prescient, with David sarcastically predicting that FTX won’t make it.
 
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35 minutes ago, Gloves said:

The key here is that he gives no indication whatsoever of a timeline for when he anticipates it will go up 20x.

Bitcoin goes through a halving process every 4 years by which the amount of Bitcoin received for mining gets cut in half. Directly after every halving event, the price sky rockets.

- 2017 = from $1000 to $19,000

- 2021 = from $19,000 to $63,000

The next halving event is scheduled for 2024 so it should triple again the following year. If you want to make a lot of money, put everything you can into cryptocurrency now before it starts climbing for 2024. Although I do think Bitcoin will triple, I actually think Solana will go up by a higher multiplier.

I'll quote this post again next year with an accompanying graph.

Edited by Code Monkey
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2012 Bitcoin Halving
The first halving happened on November 28th, 2012.

New Bitcoin per block (Before): 50 BTC per block
New Bitcoin per block (After): 25 BTC per block
Price on Halving Day: $12.35
Price 150 Days Later: $127.00


2016 Bitcoin Halving
The second halving occurred on July 9th, 2016.

New Bitcoin per block (Before): 25 BTC per block
New Bitcoin per block (After): 12.5 BTC per block
Price on Halving Day: $650.63
Price 150 Days Later: $758.81 


2020 Bitcoin Halving
The third halving occurred on May 11, 2020.

New Bitcoin per block (Before): 12.5 BTC per block
New Bitcoin per block (After): 6.25 BTC per block
Price on Halving Day: $8821.42
Price 150 Days Later: $10,943.00
In the following table, we have summarized the patterns of Bitcoin halving events into categories like block number, block rewards, and percentage of Bitcoin mined.

 

Expected Next Bitcoin Halving Dates: 2024 and Beyond


2024 Bitcoin Halving
Expected: 2024
Block number: 740,000
Block reward: 3.125 new BTC
Total new Bitcoins: 656,250 BTC


2028 Bitcoin Halving
Expected: 2028
Block number: 850,000
Block reward: 1.5625 new BTC
Total new Bitcoins: 328,125 BTC

Edited by Code Monkey
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22 hours ago, Code Monkey said:

2012 Bitcoin Halving
The first halving happened on November 28th, 2012.

New Bitcoin per block (Before): 50 BTC per block
New Bitcoin per block (After): 25 BTC per block
Price on Halving Day: $12.35
Price 150 Days Later: $127.00


2016 Bitcoin Halving
The second halving occurred on July 9th, 2016.

New Bitcoin per block (Before): 25 BTC per block
New Bitcoin per block (After): 12.5 BTC per block
Price on Halving Day: $650.63
Price 150 Days Later: $758.81 


2020 Bitcoin Halving
The third halving occurred on May 11, 2020.

New Bitcoin per block (Before): 12.5 BTC per block
New Bitcoin per block (After): 6.25 BTC per block
Price on Halving Day: $8821.42
Price 150 Days Later: $10,943.00
In the following table, we have summarized the patterns of Bitcoin halving events into categories like block number, block rewards, and percentage of Bitcoin mined.

 

Expected Next Bitcoin Halving Dates: 2024 and Beyond


2024 Bitcoin Halving
Expected: 2024
Block number: 740,000
Block reward: 3.125 new BTC
Total new Bitcoins: 656,250 BTC


2028 Bitcoin Halving
Expected: 2028
Block number: 850,000
Block reward: 1.5625 new BTC
Total new Bitcoins: 328,125 BTC

Seems like unless you got into Bitcoin early and kept your investment, it's a bit of a lost cause to join the bandwagon now. At least insomuch that who knows where the wagon will go - maybe down a cliff? Maybe not - some have speculated that bitcoin will reach $1million+ -- but I believe they said the same thing about FTX

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55 minutes ago, Gloves said:

Something happened 3 times in the last decade, better put my life savings into betting it'll happen again!

It has a 100% success rate, why would you think it wouldn't happen again? The halving is built into the technology, it's just whether people buy it up once the halving happens.

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Administrator · Posted
9 minutes ago, Code Monkey said:

It has a 100% success rate, why would you think it wouldn't happen again? The halving is built into the technology, it's just whether people buy it up once the halving happens.

I'm just saying that in terms of sure things and financials, there are very few of those. Sure, halving will happen as it's part of the system. Will that guarantee that the price per BTC continues to rise forever? None can truly say.

Halving has had relatively extreme benefits in terms of historical gains, but it's worth remembering that it's diminishing returns - taking 100 cakes and cutting them all in half and chucking half out the window has a far greater impact of the availability of cakes than doing the exact same thing to 10 cakes. Same percent, different outcome, and it's beneficial to remember that the cakes already in circulation continue to exist. Or Bitcoin... whatever. "Historical gains" with a total lifetime of 10 years and a proposed guarantee that you can double, quadruple, quintuple, 10x your money as often as the Olympics happen sounds exactly like the kind of scheme that by the time everyone knows about it, it's too late to buy in without being the guy at the bottom of everyone's favorite triangular shape.

The amount of people mining in general has plummeted (and I can finally buy graphic cards at MSRP again). 

I don't just look at the historical charts and money, I look at the whole picture. BTC will continue to exist almost assuredly, however we can't say in what manner and whether it will actually find a proper use outside of speculative investment. It's solved no problems, and it's massively expensive and draining on the environment to continue mining at scale. There's a reasonable chance that at any time governments may clamp down on crypto as a whole. You simply don't know, and without taking every factor into account you can't reasonably make a fool-proof accurate long-term assessment of investment potential. 

I'll grant that BTC itself has a better chance than most of retaining long-term value, but this is tech behind it all, and old tech gets chucked out the window for the thing that does the thing better all the time. I find it hilarious that any time the conversation comes up "well what can I even use BTC for?", all of the examples given basically boil down to "a beginners guide on how to break the law (pay for services or items which are illegal or socially immoral) or lie to your loved ones(e.g. hide net worth from a spouse without the need for a prenuptial agreement)". Like, those are actual things that are actually proposed as use cases that are supposed to get me stoked to get my money in crypto. Governments are technologically illiterate for now, so the scam is easy enough to get away with, you can grift and rug pull and scam and steal and lie and cheat until the cows come home and basically nobody can do anything about it. They won't always be technologically incompetent and when the time comes I can could see them clamping down.

Not that I'm alarmist about it, I'm just not betting on this particular horse. Mind, I'm not a gambler.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 2/12/2023 at 8:22 PM, Code Monkey said:

It has a 100% success rate, why would you think it wouldn't happen again? The halving is built into the technology, it's just whether people buy it up once the halving happens.

Are you still buying bitcoin or are you just holding? It seems like you mentioned that you had several whole coins.

Edited by Bearcat-Doug
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Administrator · Posted
1 hour ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

... It seems like you mentioned that you had several whole coins.

  

On 11/8/2022 at 9:48 PM, Code Monkey said:

...

And you over estimated, Bitcoin quantity is 10 and Ether is like 0.0002 or something like that, if I even have any left. 

 

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I haven't bought Bitcoin since 2014 besides a few hundred dollars to get into NFT 2 years ago. If I had extra money right now I would put it into Solana, not Bitcoin, look at where that was at its peak and know it'll surpass that again this year. That's more than a 20x multiplier from its recent low.

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21 hours ago, Code Monkey said:

I haven't bought Bitcoin since 2014 besides a few hundred dollars to get into NFT 2 years ago. If I had extra money right now I would put it into Solana, not Bitcoin, look at where that was at its peak and know it'll surpass that again this year. That's more than a 20x multiplier from its recent low.

I had quite a bit of Solana around $200 and was lucky to get out of it before it completely tanked. I'm getting close to 3 BTC so I'd like to hit that before the end of the year.

Edited by Bearcat-Doug
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Now that we've exited the honeymoon period, I would only buy coins with actual utility. Bitcoin's value remains questionable as its only function is as a store of value. At least things like Solana and BNB have some use as marketplace tokens. Personally, I like Orion Protocol for its ability to facilitate decentralized secure cross-chain trading, something that will become incredibly important at some point.

I doubt any of these tokens will return to previous highs. I think it's more likely some new tokens will become main players.

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On 2/25/2023 at 8:08 AM, DoctorEncore said:

Now that we've exited the honeymoon period, I would only buy coins with actual utility. Bitcoin's value remains questionable as its only function is as a store of value. At least things like Solana and BNB have some use as marketplace tokens. Personally, I like Orion Protocol for its ability to facilitate decentralized secure cross-chain trading, something that will become incredibly important at some point.

I doubt any of these tokens will return to previous highs. I think it's more likely some new tokens will become main players.

Bitcoin is the only one I know of that's an actual currency coin. And it can be used to purchase things, I recently renwed my Real Debrid subscription with Bitcoin. I'm hoping soon more places start accepting it or at least start accepting Bitpay which can interface with payment systems and do the conversion in real time.

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On 2/12/2023 at 8:22 PM, Code Monkey said:

It has a 100% success rate, why would you think it wouldn't happen again? The halving is built into the technology, it's just whether people buy it up once the halving happens.

Hey Google, what is extrapolation?

"In mathematics, extrapolation is a type of estimation, beyond the original observation range, of the value of a variable on the basis of its relationship with another variable. "

Thanks Google!

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On 2/27/2023 at 9:55 AM, RegularGuyGamer said:

Hey Google, what is extrapolation?

"In mathematics, extrapolation is a type of estimation, beyond the original observation range, of the value of a variable on the basis of its relationship with another variable. "

Thanks Google!

What part of gUaRAnTeEd GAINZ!!!1!11! don't you understand? 😂

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