SMB3 sells for $156k

[Dr. Morbis | 2,091]

1 hour ago, tbone3969 said:

Wow....  I see a lot of the left "Bros" variant floating around.  Sure it is a variant but how rare is it really? 

Compared to just about any other NES title, left bros is not rare at all, but compared to the other ten million SMB3's printed, it is a small fraction of that, making it seem rare.  Left bros is artificially rare, kind of like grey zelda or yellow Metroid: not actually rare, but much less common within its class...

[RH | 4,935]

12 minutes ago, DoctorEncore said:

The funny thing is that I started collecting heavily in 2016 and I thought I had missed the boat in terms of pricing. Turns out I was the last one on the boat.

This was me exactly. What agitates me a little, and this is a personal thing, is that right around when WATA opened their doors, I was wanting to put a little more focus on getting first variants of childhood favorites that were accessible. I asked around on NA for the left handed SMB3, hoping to get a gem mint copy and/or possibly a sealed copy.

I wanted it because I loved the game and it is my favorite NES game of all time. But, now me getting one in the condition I prefer is not likely to happen. What agitates me isn't the skyrocketing price. It's the skyrocketing price due to speculators. These guys will buy this stuff, throw it in a box or something and never really care about it. And that just sucks for me.

[phart010 | 1,708]

11 hours ago, fcgamer said:

Lol, what would a guy from Dubai even want with that? That particular box wasn't icon in his part of the world.

Maybe he'd like some of those sealed bootleg Famiclone carts I have

I’m pretty sure Middle East didn’t have any regional marked distribution for games back then. Saudi Arabia was the booming economy back then, and their electrical grid was 60Hz so importing US versions would have be more convenient than PAL 50Hz versions.

Other gulf countries are 50Hz, but back in NES days they were probably just little desert villages, so probably sourced their import games and systems from Saudi Arabia.

I’m not saying this is the absolute answer, but it’s plausible.

[DefaultGen | 5,415]

2 hours ago, Dr. Morbis said:

Compared to just about any other NES title, left bros is not rare at all, but compared to the other ten million SMB3's printed, it is a small fraction of that, making it seem rare.  Left bros is artificially rare, kind of like grey zelda or yellow Metroid: not actually rare, but much less common within its class...

I counted whatever happened to be on Ebay and JJGames, carts and CIBs, in 2018 for a podcast episode and it was about 1 in 10 copies were Left bros. It's a single data point sure, but my eyes still roll all the way into the back of my head when I read some news article or IGN post calling it "Ultra rare misprint Mario 3" or something.

Edited November 22, 2020 by DefaultGen

[austin532 | 467]

@DoctorEncoreThat's what I thought as well. It seemed like NES was slowing down at that point. The prices were still slowly going up but the only games that would fetch good money were uncommon or mint games. Then in 2018-2019, it went BOOM. Everyone started Wata grading their games and selling them for 4x-5x what they were worth......and people were paying those prices. Sadly it doesn't seem like it's going to slow down anytime soon. How long before we start seeing sealed SNES games go for 6 figures? I can see a sealed black label Super Mario World hitting that someday.

Glad I started collecting 20 years ago when CIB games were only $5-$10.

Edited November 22, 2020 by austin532

[fcgamer | 4,737]

3 hours ago, phart010 said:

I’m pretty sure Middle East didn’t have any regional marked distribution for games back then. Saudi Arabia was the booming economy back then, and their electrical grid was 60Hz so importing US versions would have be more convenient than PAL 50Hz versions.

Other gulf countries are 50Hz, but back in NES days they were probably just little desert villages, so probably sourced their import games and systems from Saudi Arabia.

I’m not saying this is the absolute answer, but it’s plausible.

Back in the day Saudia Arabia had Famiclones, with boxes in Arabic. I wouldn't be surprised at all if other places around there did the same.

[Code Monkey | 2,011]

edit

Edited November 23, 2020 by Code Monkey

[Code Monkey | 2,011]

I know the guys buying these and what they're doing is dropping about $1,000,000 total on various games and hoping a few of them hit. They're coming over from the comic market and don't really know what's hot in the video game market but they know what their friends are buying so they're doing the same. Overall, even if they lose money on a single game like this, I have an idea their $1,000,000 investment overall will gain value so they don't really care if one game loses money.

I also think this one isn't done climbing, I think in 6 months you're going to wish you could get this game for this price. I also think if the sticker sealed Super Mario Bros. sold today, it would sell for over $500,000 and I think next year it would sell for $1,000,000. I would actually bet money with someone if they were willing to take that bet, that's how strongly I believe it.

I would be more surprised about the 20% buyers' premium on each Heritage Auction item so the guy that bought this paid about $25,000 to the auction house AFTER paying the seller for the auction. That cost is included in this sale price though, the seller will probably get $130,000. Heritage Auctions always includes the buyers' premium when they post sale prices.

I would have also been previously surprised about the copy of Left Bros. that sold for $7800 last month, that one was opened, it wasn't even sealed. I'm surprised nobody mentioned that one when it happened. There was also a sticker seal Super Mario Bros. that sold in this most recent auction and that one wasn't sealed, it was just complete. The box actually graded a 2.5 with the top flap completely torn off. That sold for $16,800 with buyer premium.

I don''t think this is going away, I think the easiest thing to do right now is try to get ahead of it. Try and figure out what these guys are going to go after next and buy up a few copies, I have an idea it might be sealed, first print Famicom. Paying $1000 for a Famicom copy of The Legend Of Zelda might get you $50,000 next month. If you can figure that out, you can make a lot of money.

And for your enjoyment, here are 2 of my Left Bros. variants, they're not rare.

 

[Tulpa | 3,526]

6 minutes ago, Code Monkey said:

Paying $1000 for a Famicom copy of The Legend Of Zelda might get you $50,000 next month.

An FDS Zelda goes for $1000?

[Code Monkey | 2,011]

2 minutes ago, Tulpa said:

An FDS Zelda goes for $1000?

I have no idea, I'm just guessing. A sealed copy probably goes for at least that and if it doesn't, I'll probably buy it.

[Tulpa | 3,526]

4 minutes ago, Code Monkey said:

I have no idea, I'm just guessing. A sealed copy probably goes for at least that and if it doesn't, I'll probably buy it.

Not even close. And they're not sealed in shrinkwrap, IIRC.

A complete Zelda FDS is probably around $70 or so.

Edited November 23, 2020 by Tulpa

[Dr. Morbis | 2,091]

Most Famicom cartridge games are not "sealed" but FDS games are sealed with a sticker.  The other problem with Famicom games is that Nintendo only manufactured half the library, whereas in the US, Nintendo manufactured like 98% of all licensed US NES releases, leading to uniformity across most of the US library.  If these guys dropping massive coin are going to get into Famicom, things are going to turn into a real shit-show real soon.

With a million dollars, I'd be buying up every NWC I could find, not some ridiculously common game like left bros.

Edited November 23, 2020 by Dr. Morbis

[ThePhleo | 2,185]

14 minutes ago, Dr. Morbis said:

Most Famicom cartridge games are not "sealed" but FDS games are sealed with a sticker.  The other problem with Famicom games is that Nintendo only manufactured half the library, whereas in the US, Nintendo manufactured like 98% of all licensed US NES releases, leading to uniformity across most of the US library.  If these guys dropping massive coin are going to get into Famicom, things are going to turn into a real shit-show real soon.

With a million dollars, I'd be buying up every NWC I could find, not some ridiculously common game like left bros.

NWC ain’t the holy grail people make it out to be. It’s still an amazing piece and a top shelf rarity for sure, but it could use a little humble pie.

With almost 90 confirmed copies on my list and god knows how many else in shadow collector hands and the dozen or so still in peoples attics...I’m just saying, if you want NWC, you can get NWC as long as you’re patient and have the cash.

Same for Stadium Events. I’ve met multiple people with more than one boxed copies...and then there’s mr Atwood.

[OptOut | 8,890]

40 minutes ago, Code Monkey said:

I don''t think this is going away, I think the easiest thing to do right now is try to get ahead of it. Try and figure out what these guys are going to go after next and buy up a few copies

Or, just continue to ignore and/or mock them and carry on buying and playing games like we always have!

It's a separate hobby, what those guys are doing, or investment or whatever it is. I want zero part of it, frankly.

[GPX | 1,371]

1 hour ago, ThePhleo said:

NWC ain’t the holy grail people make it out to be. It’s still an amazing piece and a top shelf rarity for sure, but it could use a little humble pie.

With almost 90 confirmed copies on my list and god knows how many else in shadow collector hands and the dozen or so still in peoples attics...I’m just saying, if you want NWC, you can get NWC as long as you’re patient and have the cash.

Same for Stadium Events. I’ve met multiple people with more than one boxed copies...and then there’s mr Atwood.

At least NWC has been long established to be one of the most iconic Nintendo collectible - there is a definite universal consensus. 

I wonder how many people would agree that a sealed left bros is worth $150,000+ on this planet earth as of November 2020?

[Dr. Morbis | 2,091]

1 hour ago, ThePhleo said:

NWC ain’t the holy grail people make it out to be. It’s still an amazing piece and a top shelf rarity for sure, but it could use a little humble pie.

I'm just talking from an investment perspective.  Twenty years from now, NWC carts will be worth a million bucks each.  It's like the Action Comics #1 of our time - it'll be top dollar long after we're all dead.  Whereas a random variant of a super common game like a sealed left bros, on the other hand, isn't going to mean much to some future invester/collector buying up articles of video game history 100 years from now...

[doner24 | 1,197]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Morbis said:

I'm just talking from an investment perspective.  Twenty years from now, NWC carts will be worth a million bucks each.  It's like the Action Comics #1 of our time - it'll be top dollar long after we're all dead.  Whereas a random variant of a super common game like a sealed left bros, on the other hand, isn't going to mean much to some future invester/collector buying up articles of video game history 100 years from now...

I don’t agree with you. These people connect with characters, there is no character associated with NWC. These investors know Mario, Zelda, Tyson, just like they know Superman, Spider-Man, and Batman. 

[Brickman | 4,000]

I'd be pretty surprised if Famicom starts blowing up. They didn't come sealed unless the retailer sealed them themselves. Also a lot of Japanese people look after their stuff, so a lot of Famicom games are pretty mint looking, there would be so many 8+ copies of games getting graded.

But if Zelda is going to get crazy money I'm happy to offer a low price of $10k for mine, get it now before these go to $100k!

As people like fcgamer can tell you, there's some really rare stuff in the Famicom librabry and the Nintendo first party stuff definitely isn't on that list.

[Dr. Morbis | 2,091]

1 minute ago, doner24 said:

I don’t agree with you. These people connect with characters, there is no character associated with NWC. These investors know Mario, Zelda, Tyson, just like they know Superman, Spider-Man, and Batman. 

Yeah, I guess that's why left bros sold for so much: the resounding amount of people in the world that personally associate with the word "bros" being on the left side of the box is just too overwhelming to count...  I mean, I get a little teary-eyed just looking at that box, don't you?

The NWC is associated with video game history; it has been at the forefront of game pricing since game collecting began.  That poor fool who posted his copy with all the original paperwork for sale on here recently didn't have the forsight to see what he had in his hands, DESPITE the fact that he paid like five grand for it a few short years ago and now sold it for probably close to 100k... I guess he didn't want to follow that curve up and make waaaaaay more money a decade or so into the future.  Do you really think a sticker seal SMB or sealed left bros is going to supplant the NWC long term???

[doner24 | 1,197]

22 minutes ago, Dr. Morbis said:

Yeah, I guess that's why left bros sold for so much: the resounding amount of people in the world that personally associate with the word "bros" being on the left side of the box is just too overwhelming to count...  I mean, I get a little teary-eyed just looking at that box, don't you?

The NWC is associated with video game history; it has been at the forefront of game pricing since game collecting began.  That poor fool who posted his copy with all the original paperwork for sale on here recently didn't have the forsight to see what he had in his hands, DESPITE the fact that he paid like five grand for it a few short years ago and now sold it for probably close to 100k... I guess he didn't want to follow that curve up and make waaaaaay more money a decade or so into the future.  Do you really think a sticker seal SMB or sealed left bros is going to supplant the NWC long term???

You mean the one that has Mario on the cover and is widely looked at as the most popular game in retro gaming history? 
 

Yes. I definitely think the matte sticker sealed SMB will be the grail to have long term. 

[Code Monkey | 2,011]

41 minutes ago, Dr. Morbis said:

Yeah, I guess that's why left bros sold for so much: the resounding amount of people in the world that personally associate with the word "bros" being on the left side of the box is just too overwhelming to count...  I mean, I get a little teary-eyed just looking at that box, don't you?

The NWC is associated with video game history; it has been at the forefront of game pricing since game collecting began.  That poor fool who posted his copy with all the original paperwork for sale on here recently didn't have the forsight to see what he had in his hands, DESPITE the fact that he paid like five grand for it a few short years ago and now sold it for probably close to 100k... I guess he didn't want to follow that curve up and make waaaaaay more money a decade or so into the future.  Do you really think a sticker seal SMB or sealed left bros is going to supplant the NWC long term???

Yes, I do. Rarity has nothing to do with it when there's a familiar face on the cover.

That's pretty evident from the $66,000 sealed Stadium Events and the $114,000 sealed Super Mario Bros.

[Dr. Morbis | 2,091]

Well I'm still not convinced that the whole WATA/Heritage hostile takeover of the videogame collecting market is anything more than a very few deep-pocketed collectors from other collecting fields jumping in and speculatively trying to see if they can make a few insider sales to wildly adjust the bar long term.  If a small circle of non-videogame collectors jerking each other off behind closed doors can make this work, then yeah, those prices will stick.  But I have yet to hear of who's buying these outrageously priced games.  Is it actually video game collectors or is it merely guys from other fields?  If it's not game collectors, then this is a bubble with a really thin lining at the top end of the pricing scale...

Edited November 23, 2020 by Dr. Morbis

[GPX | 1,371]

16 minutes ago, Code Monkey said:

Yes, I do. Rarity has nothing to do with it when there's a familiar face on the cover.

That's pretty evident from the $66,000 sealed Stadium Events and the $114,000 sealed Super Mario Bros.

Rarity still has a big say, regarding the rare condition and the rare variants. This is why not all Mario games are worth the same.

I think what Dr Morbis is saying is that the left Mario Bros isn’t as rare as what some people are claiming it to be. And that if popularity is the main feature of a collectible’s price then every Mario game would be worth bazillion dollars by now, with or without WATA/HA. 

[doner24 | 1,197]

1 minute ago, Dr. Morbis said:

Well I'm still not convinced that the whole WATA/Heritage hostile takeover of the videogame collecting market is anything more than a very few deep-pocketed collectors from other collecting fields jumping in and speculatively trying to see if they can make a few insider sales wildly adjust the bar long term.  If a small circle of non-videogame collectors jerking each other off behind closed doors can make this work, then yeah, those prices will stick.  But I have yet to hear of who's buying these outragously priced games.  Is it actually video game collectors or guys from other fields?  If it's not game collectors, then this is a bubble with a really thin lining at the top end of the pricing scale...

I don’t disagree with you, but it is definitely a mix of old and new collectors, with a big piece of the new collectors coming from other hobbies like comics. So far they’ve shown little interest in anything other than A1 sealed titles, although I’ve noticed some branching out to “rarer” titles (think Zombie Nation, etc...), that haven’t seen the huge gains the big names have yet. I’m curious if they will start trickling down into graded CIB’s when the sealed stuff starts drying out, as so far most of the moves there I’ve seen are from old school collectors. 

[fcgamer | 4,737]

I don't think it's fair to call those jumping into the market solely for investing purposes collectors, rather it's just a bunch (or a few?) dudes entering the market for investing.

Is this part of the hobby? Sure, by now it definitely is one facet of the hobby, just as much as resellers, preservationists, dumpers, homebrewers, etc. But these guys certainly aren't collectors in the traditional sense of the term, and the stuff that they're snapping up is likely stuff that most of us wouldn't even have much of an interest in.

Regarding the establishment of what's desirable and what's not, values, etc:

I think to most collectors, a NWC is going to have more value than a sticker sealed Mario or a left Bros. NWC has such a rich history behind it, left Bros has nothing, lol.

Now to investors, it could be a totally different situation, where sealed SMB and sealed left Bros are king. Heck, those might even be worth more in monetary terms, due to that group of people having deeper pockets. But it's silly to even be making such comparisons, as it's apples to pomegranates, sort of like asking who is more fluent in English, you or your teenage kid. 

Totally different groups want and collect totally different things, with only a small overlap between them, so it's silly for them to try to tell us what we should be collecting / buying, and vice versa.