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How much will the sealed trend affect 'regular' CIB's?


hyrulevyse
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I'm curious to hear what people think will happen to the market for cib's if the current sealed trend continues.  I'm not really talking about hangtab Castlevania, white bullet Tyson's, tm Zelda's and alike and as the games are so iconic and sealed copies are scarce, it can't help but raise the values of the complete ones.

I'm more asking about games that nobody but game collectors would care about.  Titles that are relatively rare or sought after, but not particularly important to anyone.  Pro Sport Hockey, Kid Klown, Rockin Kats.....stuff like that.  The sealed Uninvited currently on Heritage is a good example, pretend that goes for something stupid, how much (if any) will that affect prices for a mint cib?

From what I understand most comic folks don't have a library of books in their collections like many of us.  They don't go for complete sets of Uncanny X-Men or Amazing Spider-Man, just the handful of issues they deem important.  So it doesn't seem like their reach would extend far enough to the rest of the NES set to change it much.  But people are speculating so hard on anything sealed it has me wondering what others think.

 

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If a sealed title goes high it causes a speculative temporary bubble on CIB. I would expect Sealed and CIB to mostly remain their own markets. 

Exceptions would be early games in 9.0 or higher or any CIB in 9.4 and higher. I think those could get a bit nutty depending on who is looking.

Also, assume we're only really talking NES and maybe SNES here. Disc based CIB is a bit silly and should be unaffected entirely. Too modern and available.

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3 minutes ago, jonebone said:

Also, assume we're only really talking NES and maybe SNES here. Disc based CIB is a bit silly and should be unaffected entirely. Too modern and available.

Yeah I was just meaning to talk about NES to keep it simple since the whole thing is just opinion anyway.  But the 'which systems matter' thing is interesting too.  Let's say that this new money cares about Black Box, Hangtab, and 'keys' when it comes to NES, after those have dried up do they keep going down through the NES library (Capcom, Konami, whatever) or do they switch focus to the 10 most important games on the SNES, Genesis, N64, etc...?

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5 hours ago, hyrulevyse said:

From what I understand most comic folks don't have a library of books in their collections like many of us.  They don't go for complete sets of Uncanny X-Men or Amazing Spider-Man, just the handful of issues they deem important. 

I disagree. Yes, there are key issues that are wanted by more people, just like there are dank games. But there are comics collectors who go for entire series. Maybe fewer, due to the sheer longevity of the medium (8-12 issues per year, 45 years worth of Amazing, 80 years of Detective Comics... vs 9 years of NES) but they’re there. I’m not active in the comics scene, and I know a guy who has every TMNT and is working on every Uncanny, if not already there. And not every sought-after series runs forever (Walking Dead). 

There’s also desirable runs of multiple issues (Crisis on Infinite Earths, Frank Miller Daredevils) that could be compared to video game subsets. 

As for the question of whether lower tiers like CIB could be affected by an increase in sealed collecting, yes I think so. Very easily, with where we are right now.

First, there are lower tier collectors too. No reason why increased interest in another hobby can’t trickle down. There’s people who like various conditions, readers vs collectors, shops and conventions and forums with “Everything Else” sections, just in like game collecting.

Second, I think it is already happening for black box titles, based on my casual observations of ebay lately. Then, once black box runs its hype course, there’s comic IP games as noted above, Disney, silver box (Metroid /Rad Racer /Kid Icarus), other first party titles, hidden gems, The Mega Man 1 Box Art Fiasco (or however somebody wants to spin it), screw variants... et cetera. 

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Now that the comic collectors are in the hobby and all these cycles are resetting, I predict that sealed capcom subsets will be the hotness after black box. Its got a few high end titles like Duck Tales 2 (which also has a comics IP connection) and many of the titles also have the strong name recognition.

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12 hours ago, Link said:

First, there are lower tier collectors too. No reason why increased interest in another hobby can’t trickle down. There’s people who like various conditions, readers vs collectors, shops and conventions and forums with “Everything Else” sections, just in like game collecting.

I believe/agree with everything you said, but I think it would take a significant amount of 'lower tier' comic collectors to cross over for that to be the case.  Higher end comic folks are here for the money, the other tier would need to be here for the passion.  I imagine some of them would 'catch the itch' but again I think it would take quite a few.

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5 hours ago, G-type said:

Now that the comic collectors are in the hobby and all these cycles are resetting, I predict that sealed capcom subsets will be the hotness after black box. Its got a few high end titles like Duck Tales 2 (which also has a comics IP connection) and many of the titles also have the strong name recognition.

TMNT #1 could/should see huge spikes too.

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12 hours ago, G-type said:

Now that the comic collectors are in the hobby and all these cycles are resetting, I predict that sealed capcom subsets will be the hotness after black box. Its got a few high end titles like Duck Tales 2 (which also has a comics IP connection) and many of the titles also have the strong name recognition.

A Disney Plus bump in prices would be awesome! 

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On 11/14/2019 at 4:46 PM, snk2d4ever said:

The people with the capital only care about AAA titles and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Games like Casino Kid 2, Color A Dinosaur, etc. shouldn't be phased because they were only valuable as part of the set, and it seems like there are fewer set collectors around.

This is along my line of thinking as well but I've been wrong before haha.  Will be interesting for sure

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1 hour ago, oops said:

I havent seen this at mint level yet but I can only hope

Agreed that the stuff that's truly in excellent condition is still seeing a premium. I don't see that changing any time soon. But from surfing eBay it appears that there is a little more selection on the more common games and the prices appear to be more competitive as a result.

Sealed games are at an entire different level lately. Any title of note that's in grading condition is a minimum 4 figures from what I see.

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