War with China

[avatar! | 1,827]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/07/china-preparing-for-war/

Of course no one knows for sure what will happen, but the signs are not promising. War is not inevitable in my opinion, but it's also 100% correct to say that China is preparing for war. China is the biggest threat to not only democracy but the world order - which I admit is far from perfect, but it's also far far far far far far preferable than anything Russia or China want. I know us mere peons can not change much, BUT, this is just one reason I will always avoid Chinese products when I can, after all, it was the collective West's money which allowed China to become the threat it is today.

Tensions between the West and China show no sign of easing. Interdependence and mistrust continue to mix uneasily. Triggers are many and varied including; human rights, relations with Russia vis-à-vis Ukraine, microchip manufacturing and the big one, Taiwan...President Xi is telling the troops of the Eastern Theatre Command – the one that faces Taiwan – that they need to step up their combat readiness and “… persist in thinking and handling military issues from a political perspective, dare to fight, be good at fighting, and resolutely defend our national sovereignty, security, and development interests.”

In the longer term, is war with China inevitable? General Mike Minihan of the US Airforce says it is; a hawkish stance that I suspect is shared by quite a few in the US military. But, as is the way, there are plenty who believe that the situation will continue to be managed by ongoing diplomatic efforts and the deterrent effect of our combined militaries.

China continues to circle, getting ever closer but never pointing directly at the target. Aggressive exercises, encircling, drone overflights and encroachments will continue until they become ‘normal’, then they will tighten a little more. My working theory is that they will keep closing in and wait for a natural disaster such as an earthquake or tsunami to provide cover for a final move under cover of Humanitarian and Disaster Relief. It’s hard to say ‘no’ to assistance and before you know it Chinese presence on Taiwan has also become ‘normal’. I could be wrong. I hope I’m not because many of the alternatives are far, far worse.

 

[MrWunderful | 2,927]

What if we just stop paying all of our debt to them and destroy their economy? Curious if anyone knows what affects that has.

 

China says “ok usa we are going to war”

USA says “ok we dont owe you money anymore. Come and fucking get it”

 

Like what if we just outlaw all garbage cheap made in china trinkets? I feel our trade is so inexplicably linked, we cant just “go to war”. 
 

Also, their military is set up to defend their homeland. No military in the whole world can project in far locations like the USA. We would never just attack them, and what are they gonna do? Just land 1/4” from my house on the west coast with chinese marines, and all long the eastern seaboard? Bet that will go down real great in the south, not like they have guns or anything. 

[a3quit4s | 4,124]

26 minutes ago, MrWunderful said:

What if we just stop paying all of our debt to them and destroy their economy? Curious if anyone knows what affects that has.

 

China says “ok usa we are going to war”

USA says “ok we dont owe you money anymore. Come and fucking get it”

 

Like what if we just outlaw all garbage cheap made in china trinkets? I feel our trade is so inexplicably linked, we cant just “go to war”. 
 

Also, their military is set up to defend their homeland. No military in the whole world can project in far locations like the USA. We would never just attack them, and what are they gonna do? Just land 1/4” from my house on the west coast with chinese marines, and all long the eastern seaboard? Bet that will go down real great in the south, not like they have guns or anything. 

Not an economics pro but I feel like if we default on any debt, our credit rating goes to trash and the dollar becomes worthless. Technically it only has value because we have a good credit rating because we no longer have gold to back it anymore. Doesn’t help that banks basically loan out $9 for every $10 you deposit. The whole value of a dollar thing is built on a rickety ass system lol

Edited July 7, 2023 by a3quit4s

[MrWunderful | 2,927]

3 minutes ago, a3quit4s said:

Not an economics pro but I feel like if we default on any debt, our credit rating goes to trash and the dollar becomes worthless. Technically it only has value because we have a good credit rating because we no longer have gold to back it anymore. Doesn’t help that banks basically loan out $9 for every $10 you deposit. The whole value of a dollar thing is built on a rickety ass system lol

I could see that, but what if all of our allies ignored that and propped up our economy? Not even sure if that would work, but I feel if everyone but “rogue states” started leaving china out of trade, and it became a more west-centric international economy, would it matter? I know it would raise prices incredibly in the short term.

 

I truly have no idea. 

[Hammerfestus | 3,882]

15 minutes ago, MrWunderful said:

I could see that, but what if all of our allies ignored that and propped up our economy? Not even sure if that would work, but I feel if everyone but “rogue states” started leaving china out of trade, and it became a more west-centric international economy, would it matter? I know it would raise prices incredibly in the short term.

 

I truly have no idea. 

What do they import from us?

[Link | 2,727]

49 minutes ago, MrWunderful said:

Like what if we just outlaw all garbage cheap made in china trinkets? I feel our trade is so inexplicably linked, we cant just “go to war”. 

I completely agree. I gave up on this a long time ago. I wish "Buy American" would be a successful campaign, but a large portion of people that appeals to would also never stop buying from Amazon and Walmart and other big box stores, whose entire models rely strongly on cheap China garbage. There is literally no such thing as mass market American-made consumer electronics or almost any other goods any more. One party will talk a game about anti-China sentiment, but never do anything effective about getting us off our dependence on their products, and will actively accuse the other party of hating their base and freedumb if there was ever any legislation around this. 

[a3quit4s | 4,124]

24 minutes ago, MrWunderful said:

I could see that, but what if all of our allies ignored that and propped up our economy? Not even sure if that would work, but I feel if everyone but “rogue states” started leaving china out of trade, and it became a more west-centric international economy, would it matter? I know it would raise prices incredibly in the short term.

 

I truly have no idea. 

I’m not sure what they get from us but we got a lot of what we need from them. I feel like that’s why they invest in the US a lot because in reality it’s just them investing in themselves lol

Honestly for the others talking about made in America, even if that were to happen now we wouldn’t get the quality we’d expect. Companies would still cut corners to deliver perceived value to shareholders. It’d just be cheap junk with made in America slapped on it only it’d actually cost more because labor laws. 
 

Made in America is really just a label we give to throwback when America made quality products at less profit and everyone wasn’t greedy as hell trying to squeeze every single cent out. I believe a CEO from the 1990s would have a goddamn heart attack if they saw how a business was run now lol

Edited July 8, 2023 by a3quit4s

[Gloves | 11,830]

21 minutes ago, a3quit4s said:

Honestly for the others talking about made in America, even if that were to happen now we wouldn’t get the quality we’d expect. Companies would still cut corners to deliver perceived value to shareholders. It’d just be cheap junk with made in America slapped on it only it’d actually cost more because labor laws. 

This already happens a lot. I've purchased "Made with pride in America" style stuff and its not been of above average quality. Above Chinese to name shit, sure, but not like "buy it for life". 

[Hammerfestus | 3,882]

21 minutes ago, a3quit4s said:

I’m not sure what they get from us but we got a lot of what we need from them. I feel like that’s why they invest in the US a lot because in reality it’s just them investing in themselves lol

Honestly for the others talking about made in America, even if that were to happen now we wouldn’t get the quality we’d expect. Companies would still cut corners to deliver perceived value to shareholders. It’d just be cheap junk with made in America slapped on it only it’d actually cost more because labor laws. 
 

Made in America is really just a label we give to throwback when America made quality products at less profit and everyone wasn’t greedy as hell trying to squeeze every single cent out. I believe a CEO from the 1990s would have a goddamn heart attack if they saw how a business was run now lol

I think people seriously overestimate our actual strength in these matters.  We spend all of our money on tanks and bombs.  Fat lot of good that shit will do us when the war isn’t through military means.   Fucks sake we think bankrupting our citizens if they get sick is just good business.  

[a3quit4s | 4,124]

10 minutes ago, Gloves said:

This already happens a lot. I've purchased "Made with pride in America" style stuff and it’s not been of above average quality. Above Chinese to name shit, sure, but not like "buy it for life". 

You can sell a quality item or you can deliver $0.0001 extra a share. Consumers are to blame as well, normally we’d just not buy the cheap shit, but we’ve been tricked into bottom line thinking as well and just have an obsession with trying to buy things as cheaply as possible. But nowadays even splurging on a luxury brand yields shit results. I used to buy lucky jeans because they were great and lasted forever at $100 a pair and now they are straight up trash getting beat out by Levi’s. 

[a3quit4s | 4,124]

7 minutes ago, Hammerfestus said:

I think people seriously overestimate our actual strength in these matters.  We spend all of our money on tanks and bombs.  Fat lot of good that shit will do us when the war isn’t through military means.   Fucks sake we think bankrupting our citizens if they get sick is just good business.  

Don’t even get me started on military spending and the military economy!

Oh and health care. Hard stop that health care should even be for profit

Edited July 8, 2023 by a3quit4s

[MrWunderful | 2,927]

3 hours ago, Hammerfestus said:

What do they import from us?

https://www.uschina.org/reports/us-exports-china-2023-0
 

150 billion in stuff. 

[FireHazard51 | 2,052]

Pffff, Tom Sharpe believes China is preparing for a war that they will initiate when an opportunity arises.  I couldn't even find out what credentials this dude has to spewing out such a alarming news article.  Fact is China is ramping up there military.  But so is the US, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and a dozen more countries.  The title is click bait to be alarmist about a war.  Real experts in this field say we may be heading to a chilled war.  A milder cold war/arms race, like what happen with US and Russia.  But nowhere near as bad as that.

[Hammerfestus | 3,882]

1 hour ago, MrWunderful said:

https://www.uschina.org/reports/us-exports-china-2023-0
 

150 billion in stuff. 

That doesn’t sound like very much.  The DoD budget is over 800 billion dollars.  
 

https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/fy23_ndaa_agreement_summary.pdf

Edited July 8, 2023 by Hammerfestus

[OptOut | 8,892]

Not likely any time soon, no. 

According to published Pentagon reports, the Chinese armed forces in the South China Sea are at least ten years out from amassing a force that would be capable of taking on the combined forces of Taiwan and the expected level of direct US military assistance that would be deployed if war broke out tomorrow.

Of course, that also give the US and Taiwan an additional ten years to ramp up defenses, even in excess of where we are today, which would put the Chinese even further behind.

Taiwan is in a fantastically defensible position, it's the reason the Nationalist government fled here in the first place and was unable to be conquered during the communist revolution.

Little short of nuclear obliteration would allow the Chinese to effectively take and hold Taiwan, all the bluster and build up over the decades has only ever been about playing to the cheap seats back home.

Not only are the Chinese and Taiwanese economies already greatly intertwined to the point that an attack on Taiwan would essentially be an act of economic self-sabotage, but the resulting political fallout and sanctions from the USA and the rest of the world economy would essentially ruin China and wipe out a century of development and progress.

Besides, after seeing how humiliated, impoverished and destabilized Russia has been during the FAR "easier" mission to conquer Ukraine, I would imagine it would give them serious pause for thought.

[avatar! | 1,827]

To be fair, I think "made in America" means something. However, as @Gloves noted just because it says "made in America" does not mean it will be the perfect quality nor does it necessarily mean it will even be better quality than something you purchase in China. That said, I support American goods not because they're necessarily going to be 10 times as good as anything from China, but because I don't want to support China. Also, I've noticed many items that used to be made in China are being moved to Vietnam, and I have no problems with that! As an example, the last three bluetooth headphones I purchased (all within the past year) are made in Vietnam and they're good quality. Overall, I personally am finding that many goods that almost used to be exclusively made in China, are now made in the USA and as noted other countries such as Vietnam.

[fcgamer | 4,753]

I am along the same thoughts as both @OptOut and @FireHazard51 ; from the situation where I am at, life continues as normal and no one seems to even give war a second thought.

We are on an island, with mountains running down the center of it, and the whole eastern side is not developed very much. Throw in the entwined economies of Taiwan and China, and the vested interest of the USA and other countries of the waterways around Taiwan as well as the chip factories, attacking would be suicidal TBH. 

That said, we still shouldn't let our guards down. The two issues that would lead to a war are as follows:

a. An accident. China is constantly flying planes around Taiwan and in my opinion, this is just playing with fire. Eventually someone (on either side) could just snap and make an unauthorized decision to shoot another plane down, and then things will spiral out of control. We all trust that everyone will follow orders and what not, but in reality someone could easily pull rank. Or, there could be an accidental collision that leads to a downward spiral, too.

b. The first one is bad luck, whereas this one is more likely to happen. China will use deep fakes and fake news to sow dissent and ultimately rig elections, leading to Taiwanese leaders being ones "selected" by China. From there, all they need to do is just slide on over across the channel.

On a different note, it's funny that China feels so strongly about Taiwan, as historically, they hated the place and just viewed it as a place for outlaws, savages, and pirates. They only care about it because of the strategic value (i.e. the waterways) and also the factories.

[Tanooki | 4,950]

They feel strongly because it undermines the mainland and Xi's plans.  They used to just lightly make passive comments but mostly left it alone other than their trading that stays open.  But presintator (president dictator) Xi has been very very aggressive.  The nine dash line of delusion saying they own every spot of water out from their coast, and the coast of every other country south and east of them which is a scam.  They use their "fishing vessels" and "coast guard" to come after citizens of vietnam, phillipines, indonesia, etc and they ram boats to sink/damage them, use firehoses to soak people or break equipment, they're just trolls, but harm and occasional death has happened and they don't care.  They make fake islands and put bases on them to project outward since their logistics are trash, so despite by count, largely over crap boats, have the largest navy they can't project out of the region really.  The problem is they want to be the next and only superpower and will go to any means to get there, Taiwan would be on the table, because if they controlled most of the worlds microprocessor manufacturing they could do a world of hurt (spyware in chips, price gouge/controls) putting anywhere else, including the US, at their mercy for basic electronics needs up to top secret/military grade stuff.

[avatar! | 1,827]

55 minutes ago, Tanooki said:

...they want to be the next and only superpower and will go to any means to get there, Taiwan would be on the table, because if they controlled most of the worlds microprocessor manufacturing they could do a world of hurt (spyware in chips, price gouge/controls) putting anywhere else, including the US, at their mercy for basic electronics needs up to top secret/military grade stuff.

100% agree. That's it right there. I think Xi is more intelligent and cunning than Putler, but basically made up of the same shite.

[Tanooki | 4,950]

Yeah he most definitely is, quite smart and cunning as he broke a very long standing pattern of leaders and managed using years of erasing obstacles to keep in power for another term and now he's trying to work a way to be like a defacto emperor there power wise.  Putin is KGB tunnel vision stupid compared and is so stuck in the past and isolated, pitting his higher ups against each other while taking their word on stuff while ignoring media and we see how that's thankfully working out for him.  Xi is seeing all the mistakes, but also realizing that dolt has made it far more harder for him to scrape Taiwan or anything that serious anytime soon without some seriously global dire consequences far worse than what Russia is suffering and will.  Countries are wising up, making pacts and pacts with pacts to deal with China's aggressive bullshit stunts, while many companies are now pulling the off-shoring work on China as they did TO there in past decades to places like Vietnam and elsewhere who can do as quality of work if not better for the same/similar costs.  China isn't enjoying that and lashing out, but countries are decoupling various needs and wants from those clowns because of their antics.

[jonebone | 1,307]

This is not news.  We've been in an arms race with China for the better part of a decade at least.  It's not preparing for war so much as it is preparing to deter the other country from intervening.  China wants Taiwan, we do not want that to happen.  Eventually someone will make a move though. 

[Tanooki | 4,950]

Yes, sadly, at least with presintator xi in charge(or potentially someone after even nastier there) it's a matter of time before a regional if not world war of sorts breaks out.  If they make a play on Taiwan, the world won't have it far more than they are not putting up with Putin's crap.  Where there threatens more country gobbling and controls over nearly 1/2 the worlds wheat/grain supplies where they could cause issues for a briefer time, Taiwan is a whole other issue.  So much of our tech is based on what only they can pump out at all or at all in any mass.  China takes that, it's over, they can just deny shipments or setup spy tech in anything that's outbound.  Blackmail, spying, extortion, you name it.  Far more countries would be up in arms over that than where we're at now because of far more nastier reaching consequences.  Yet, if some country like ours or others spread around bring up their chip development and manufacturing tech levels to where Taiwan is a second level consideration..then...?

[FireHazard51 | 2,052]

When I buy quality stuff I avoid "Made in China".  Instead I look for "Made in Taiwan"   or I look for "Made in Germany".  I do like when a quality product IS made in America.  But I don't seek out "Made in America" because I know we can make crap shit just like any other country.  But if I find a good/quality brand that is American made, sure, I'll support them.  Just like I support Taiwan and Germany made stuff too because I more than happy to support those countries economies too.  The more I learned about China and Taiwan situation the more I want Taiwan to become a VERY successful country with no influence from ANY country that they don't want to be allies with.

[phart010 | 1,708]

US has the strongest military on the planet, PERIOD. China knows better than to ever launch a physical offensive against the US. 
 

With that said, China has already been at war with the US for over a decade. They are not planning on launching a direct physical attack on the US. They are just preparing military defenses in the event that some crazy person in US politics with command over military forces decides to do something foolish against their homeland.

In Chinas view there are two ways to kill your enemy. You can fight them face to face, in which case they lose because we are stronger. Or you can slowly and discreetly cause them to become weaker until a time comes that they are no longer the one in control. 

China has launched an attack on the US in every way possible except militarily years ago and some people are just starting to notice the effects of it now.

Edited July 11, 2023 by phart010

[AirVillain | 491]

What a time to be alive... 

Edited July 15, 2023 by AirVillain