Will a recession tank game prices?

[attakid101 | 273]

There’s been a lot of recession talk floating around here in the US. If we actually do dip into a recession, what do you suppose that will do to the market for collectibles? 
 

Will we see lower game prices? Will collection values tank? 

[360collector | 289]

If it gets bad enough I would think so. The problem is, would I be willing to spend all this money on games in that situation

[MrWunderful | 2,927]

Nope. 
 

Plenty of people have tons of disposable income, even during a recession. As soon as prices “drop”, all the speculators will be there to snatch them up, or drive prices up due to demand. 

[DefaultGen | 5,433]

Covid crashes the market and games went way up. Then the market recovered games went way up. The only explanation is that games always go way up.

[WalterWhiteJr. | 1,169]

I dno. I’ve been doing this for almost 6 years and games have just continued to go up in price the whole time. I’m waiting for deals if people look to sell for liquidity but I know I’m not alone so I think that will keep prices at least close to where they currently are. 

[a3quit4s | 4,125]

Quick dip and new all time highs a week later 

[Tulpa | 3,537]

They didn't significantly drop in 2008. During the COVID recession they actually went up more, mostly due to casual people spending time home twiddling their thumbs.

I'm convinced the only way games will drop in price is if an extinction event happens.

[Californication | 1,490]

Game prices are fuk. Don't understand why people keep forgetting the two years before covid although we've had this conversation half a dozen times.

The tax changes were the first punch, decrease in disposable income is the second, there are already people jogging for the exit.

 

Edited June 17, 2022 by Californication

[Californication | 1,490]

1 hour ago, DefaultGen said:

Covid crashes the market and games went way up. Then the market recovered games went way up. The only explanation is that games always go way up.

The covid crash was the fastest recovery in history because the fed. We didn't see the same damage we saw in '08. The fed can't do that again, they are struggling with the 7 trillion they dumped.

Edit: Also, an upcoming recession would be following two years of prices exploding and a saturation of the reseller market. '08 and a new recession would be apples and oranges.

Edited June 17, 2022 by Californication

[goldenpp72 | 1,235]

Collecting has sheltered it before, the reality is not everyone is impacted equally in a recession, people will keep spending and the people who can't might loosen some of their inventory sure, but in the end people who can afford it will still end up keeping them and hording them in turn.

[MrWunderful | 2,927]

15 minutes ago, Tulpa said:

They didn't significantly drop in 2008. During the COVID recession they actually went up more, mostly due to casual people spending time home twiddling their thumbs.

I'm convinced the only way games will drop in price is if an extinction event happens.

How much food, water and bullets can I get for a cart+manual adventures of Rad gravity?

 

 

[Gulag Joe | 584]

Collectible video games will continue to gain value. Perhaps not at the rate we saw from 2020-2021, but they will continue to go up. The scarcity of near mint or better condition vintage games is real for both sealed and CIB.

[LeatherRebel5150 | 1,056]

The only way prices will go down is if a majority of people who are into the games now stop caring about them., and I mean really stop caring. Like they wouldn't take a game for free if given the opportunity because they just couldnt care less. Problem is, ask this question on a facebook group or reddit and all you see are responses like "cant wait for a crash, so I can scoop up all da gamez!" If prices dropped 10-15% then all those people would jump on the "deal" pushing the prices right back up. Maybe prices will come down when all you older guys start dyeing off...then I can swoop in for all da dealz!

[360collector | 289]

47 minutes ago, Tulpa said:

They didn't significantly drop in 2008. During the COVID recession they actually went up more, mostly due to casual people spending time home twiddling their thumbs.

I'm convinced the only way games will drop in price is if an extinction event happens.

I think what is coming is slightly worse than 2008 so maybe it wont effect it much if that didnt. Prices were more friendly back then so I didnt rly think about it but never saw a "drop"

[360collector | 289]

3 minutes ago, LeatherRebel5150 said:

The only way prices will go down is if a majority of people who are into the games now stop caring about them., and I mean really stop caring. Like they wouldn't take a game for free if given the opportunity because they just couldnt care less. Problem is, ask this question on a facebook group or reddit and all you see are responses like "cant wait for a crash, so I can scoop up all da gamez!" If prices dropped 10-15% then all those people would jump on the "deal" pushing the prices right back up. Maybe prices will come down when all you older guys start dyeing off...then I can swoop in for all da dealz!

Well its more when people have to take a massive loss on selling their home the idea is they will sell off games, but like you say they wont be cheap and ppl are already lined up to buy

[Tanooki | 4,952]

The prices are non-sustainable by most, and the numbers of those who are because of escalation are declining.

With a recession on the table you have to look at the bigger picture, job loss, inflation making less on a paycheck due to price increases, the works.  in those times people don't buy more expensive stuff and fluff, they buy less of it, they buy more necessary things, critical if their job is jacked.

The last time this kind of a hit happened was in the 90s.  Back then we had the equal to the parasites in gaming but at brick and mortar shops with sports cards, comic books, and also early card games in their infancy days of magic and pokemon TCGs.  The shops popped up like daisies, even in the town I lived which was around 65k at the time there were quite a few that popped up around an original single shop that did one or the other, a surrounding town just north had one but got even many times more than we did.  These people made it their job like game grifters do now.  They'd go around buy up all the loose copies of comics from the traditional stores, some of their related items (cards, etc) then others would scoop up entire boxes of sports(baseball largely) cards from various retailers, etc.  They'd peel everything open, use the old paper guides and price them individually and slab the nicer ones in plastic sheaths or heavier sealed up plastic clamshells for cards etc.  You'd have $1 pack of this or that broken down into like $20-100+ of stuff.

All us kids largely got pretty upset about it, what single digit up to say like 14 year old or so is going to have an income to put up with that?  Few did, so like with games now, we got priced out, the masses got priced out.  Then it turned to sorry upper teen to grown ass adult collector/investors turning stuff around, and it got more and more up there.  Stores started closing down like little ghost town main street usa stuff and eventually almost every last one was dead within a few years.  And it served them right.

Eating each other alive and during a recession that happened in 1990-92 when this crap went down, things didn't go 180 and get awesome come 1993, it was a recovery for years, and in that recovery people didn't run out and feed parasites, they spent more wisely, cheaply, and they failed.

I think this is what's going to happen now.  It'll be a bit harder, a bit more time maybe since we're dealing with many who use their homes vs rent, utilities, and employees...but they'll take a pasting.  As less and less seek an overpriced game it will force the price down as denial sets in, then fades, and they have to drop the price to get some money back, and it'll snowball.  While I'd never welcome a recession, as someone who hates what happened to this hobby, I welcome seeing a 1990s re-run on these crooks as an adjustment is overdue and ripe with recession.

[Gulag Joe | 584]

9 minutes ago, Tanooki said:

The prices are non-sustainable by most, and the numbers of those who are because of escalation are declining.

With a recession on the table you have to look at the bigger picture, job loss, inflation making less on a paycheck due to price increases, the works.  in those times people don't buy more expensive stuff and fluff, they buy less of it, they buy more necessary things, critical if their job is jacked.

The last time this kind of a hit happened was in the 90s.  Back then we had the equal to the parasites in gaming but at brick and mortar shops with sports cards, comic books, and also early card games in their infancy days of magic and pokemon TCGs.  The shops popped up like daisies, even in the town I lived which was around 65k at the time there were quite a few that popped up around an original single shop that did one or the other, a surrounding town just north had one but got even many times more than we did.  These people made it their job like game grifters do now.  They'd go around buy up all the loose copies of comics from the traditional stores, some of their related items (cards, etc) then others would scoop up entire boxes of sports(baseball largely) cards from various retailers, etc.  They'd peel everything open, use the old paper guides and price them individually and slab the nicer ones in plastic sheaths or heavier sealed up plastic clamshells for cards etc.  You'd have $1 pack of this or that broken down into like $20-100+ of stuff.

All us kids largely got pretty upset about it, what single digit up to say like 14 year old or so is going to have an income to put up with that?  Few did, so like with games now, we got priced out, the masses got priced out.  Then it turned to sorry upper teen to grown ass adult collector/investors turning stuff around, and it got more and more up there.  Stores started closing down like little ghost town main street usa stuff and eventually almost every last one was dead within a few years.  And it served them right.

Eating each other alive and during a recession that happened in 1990-92 when this crap went down, things didn't go 180 and get awesome come 1993, it was a recovery for years, and in that recovery people didn't run out and feed parasites, they spent more wisely, cheaply, and they failed.

I think this is what's going to happen now.  It'll be a bit harder, a bit more time maybe since we're dealing with many who use their homes vs rent, utilities, and employees...but they'll take a pasting.  As less and less seek an overpriced game it will force the price down as denial sets in, then fades, and they have to drop the price to get some money back, and it'll snowball.  While I'd never welcome a recession, as someone who hates what happened to this hobby, I welcome seeing a 1990s re-run on these crooks as an adjustment is overdue and ripe with recession.

Different times back then. This is the 2020s. All the boomers are retired/retiring. There are millions of open and unfilled jobs. Employers are desperately hiring at every level.

[Tanooki | 4,952]

Different or not there's still the issue of a recession and rampant stupid pricing, it still makes people pull back.  Also those who pulled that in that era maybe retiring now but the mechanics of the thing were the same.  They went after what they liked as kids, it got exploited, then when the economy went tits up, the short term investors took a pasting.

Just replace baby boomer with gen-x to millennial era people who are feeding this now, they'll eventually get tired of being taken advantage and when another recession slams things hard with Carter era but worse inflation they'll think twice about how Bonk really may not be worth $500 when other stuff matters.  There's no better time than now to cause it to crack.

[360collector | 289]

24 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said:

Different times back then. This is the 2020s. All the boomers are retired/retiring. There are millions of open and unfilled jobs. Employers are desperately hiring at every level.

yeah tons of part time and low pay jobs that most would describe as barely above slave labour and the payroll will keep you living comfy in your car at some walmart parking lot

[Gulag Joe | 584]

2 minutes ago, 360collector said:

yeah tons of part time and low pay jobs that most would describe as barely above slave labour and the payroll will keep you living comfy in your car at some walmart parking lot

There are also many higher level jobs that are wide open. It’s so bad at the government level that nearly every state across the country has removed their 4 year degree requirements. The best time for upward mobility of the middle class is right now.

[Californication | 1,490]

1 hour ago, Gulag Joe said:

There are also many higher level jobs that are wide open. It’s so bad at the government level that nearly every state across the country has removed their 4 year degree requirements. The best time for upward mobility of the middle class is right 

Mmmmm. I'm in the job market. What I am seeing is jobs with a lot of experience available, mid-tier not so much. I've heard anactodal stuff from various people that hiring is slowing.

[Gulag Joe | 584]

38 minutes ago, Californication said:

Mmmmm. I'm in the job market. What I am seeing is jobs with a lot of experience available, mid-tier not so much. I've heard anactodal stuff from various people that hiring is slowing.

Public sector hiring is not slowing down. Transportation sector is facing a massive worker shortage crisis, especially the airline industry. Data analytics are in extremely high demand. People hiring grads fresh outta college starting at 85k because the competition to hire is fierce. There’s a lot of opportunity out there right now, and all of it is sure to make my sealed Perfect Dark command at least a strong $200 eventually.

[phart010 | 1,708]

Most games will not change much. Where you will see a major crash is in the price of investment grade collectables. Like stuff that is 4, 5, 6 digits in price (Ahem Wata)..

Collectible investments did drop like crazy in the 2008 recession, I would bet they will drop again if we tumble into huge recession in 2022

Edited June 18, 2022 by phart010

[fcgamer | 4,753]

No one cares about sealed.

[OptOut | 8,892]

6 hours ago, MrWunderful said:

How much food, water and bullets can I get for a cart+manual adventures of Rad gravity?

 

 

PM'd.