Is now a GOOD or BAD time to buy?

[ConsoleCollector88 | 8]

Obviously the current market is good to get ROI on sale of games, but as prices are high now does this mean it is necessarily a bad time? I think the opportunity presents to get games maybe not previously as widely available. And at that, even if they are more expensive, will that just mean less of them available in the future? What’s everyone’s thoughts on the current buy market?

[Hammerfestus | 3,837]

As your Financial advisor I strongly urge you to buy all the things.  You’re going to want to sell your house and use the proceeds to buy sealed Colecovision games.  This is not financial advice 

 

[kell | 102]

I think a lot of us who have been collecting for years would have a hard time saying it’s a good time to buy: prices are high, market could become flooded, etc. However, I thought this a year ago and prices seem to have only increased since then.

I think it really depends on you, is there something you really want that if the value decreases you are still happy you made the purchase? Or, do you even care what the value might do? Also, it may be a good time to buy because items are available that may not be sold off at others time because the prices have risen. Might be an okay time to focus on the non-major franchises that haven't seemed to appreciate as much.

You are welcome for this non-answer.

Edited May 16, 2021 by kell

[Hammerfestus | 3,837]

3 hours ago, ConsoleCollector88 said:

Obviously the current market is good to get ROI on sale of games, but as prices are high now does this mean it is necessarily a bad time? I think the opportunity presents to get games maybe not previously as widely available. And at that, even if they are more expensive, will that just mean less of them available in the future? What’s everyone’s thoughts on the current buy market?

I‘d actually say that my answer depends on what your involvement with game collecting is: what are you buying and are you purchasing as a collector where fluctuating price is a secondary concern and usually an impediment to your collecting activities OR are you an investor where price is the primary concern and the end in and of itself?  

If it’s the former then it doesn’t really matter what the “buy market“ is.  You are collecting and you simply adjust what you collect and how to match your ability.  Otherwise, you’re just watching other people collect.

If it’s the latter then I really don’t have any advice for you.  Maybe ask yourself if your purchases seem silly?

Either way,  outside of catching random stuff underpriced, I’ve very rarely gotten a game for cheaper by waiting for prices to come down.  That probably won’t be the case with everything forever but that’s not something any of us can predict.

[MrWunderful | 2,927]

What would cause the bottom to drop out of the market, and value to go down?

[Naked Warrior | 288]

You posted this in the "Sealed/Graded" section, so my short answer/opinion is - It is a bad time to buy.  In my opinion the graded market is being propped up by grading insiders and a lack of information on the population of these grades...pretty soon those insiders will run out of their "prop" money and population reports will start to circulate (even if the community has to create them themselves).  I don't think it is a great time to be an "investor" in videogames.

But, I agree with @Hammerfestus - It depends on what you are buying and what your collecting goals are...If you are buying Pokemon or Sealed/Graded stuff right now, I can almost guarantee you are going to lose money in the long run.  I just don't know how many end buyers there are for a $60,000 sealed/graded Pokemon Red.  Now, if your goals are to have a great Xbox or Wii or PS2/3 or DS/3DS collection on the cheap, this is a great time to buy...because even though the pandemic bumped their value up prematurely, they are still likely much cheaper than they will be 5 years from now.  I would also argue most CIB stuff from the NES/SNES/N64/GEN eras will probably hold value very well...maybe dip in value in the following 2-3 years (-20% at most), but recover pretty quickly.  Cart only is probably more likely to see a prolonged "bust", but not the 40%+ declines like we are going to see on this Pokemon and graded stuff.

If you are a gamer/collector, it is never a bad time to buy, because even if you "overspend", you've got that game that you can play and trade as you see fit!  If you are an investor/collector, you better have conviction that this investment is going to outperform your typical mix of stocks/bonds...because the risk you are taking is exponentially higher than a model portfolio...

Full Disclosure - I've been buying CIB games from various systems all thru the pandemic (In avg to below avg condition mostly to play, and partly to own before/if they get out of control expensive...).  I have no interest in Sealed/graded games.

[DefaultGen | 5,401]

Good time to buy any games that haven’t been as affected by COVID and Wata, bad time to buy Pokemans and sealed Nintendo games. If I find a game I want and the price hasn’t budged since 2018 (basically impossible for US console games) I just instabuy it now. I tend to see the imbalance in prices now as “so and so games are too expensive” but the other part of my brain can say “so and so game is so cheap compared to these dumbass Pokemon GBA sales!”

[GPX | 1,369]

I’ve come up a fairly accurate, non-scientific analysis of the the game market in the recent 6 months:

- a lot of games to sell = good

- a lot of games to buy = bad

—————

Everything seems to be tainted with hype pollution, so not only are you facing more competition, more higher prices, but also an increasing number of sellers with bad attitudes and new levels of silliness. 

Having said that, there might be more rare games that are popping up which isn’t heavily affected in the current market regarding price. Unlikely to be Nintendo retro games or Pokemon though!

[SilverspoonGaming | 332]

<-- Waiting for the bubble to burst...

[doner24 | 1,195]

4 hours ago, Naked Warrior said:

  If you are an investor/collector, you better have conviction that this investment is going to outperform your typical mix of stocks/bonds...because the risk you are taking is exponentially higher than a model portfolio...

Is it actually higher risk, because from 2008-2011 my stocks got absolutely destroyed, while my games continued to rise, even starting their initial rocket up in value and haven’t seen any sort of crash since (ever), compared to the ups and down of the stock market that I am heavily invested in. 
 

For over a decade I’ve been seeing people post about a crash, a correction, etc... but the only constant is that people wish they would’ve paid the previous price for a game, that they held back on for various reasons. 

[Gloves | 11,776]

3 minutes ago, doner24 said:

Is it actually higher risk, because from 2008-2011 my stocks got absolutely destroyed, while my games continued to rise, even starting their initial rocket up in value and haven’t seen any sort of crash since (ever), compared to the ups and down of the stock market that I am heavily invested in. 
 

For over a decade I’ve been seeing people post about a crash, a correction, etc... but the only constant is that people wish they would’ve paid the previous price for a game, that they held back on for various reasons. 

Yyyyyep. 

"When should I buy this game I want to buy?" 

Yesterday. 

[ConsoleCollector88 | 8]

5 hours ago, Naked Warrior said:

You posted this in the "Sealed/Graded" section, so my short answer/opinion is - It is a bad time to buy.  In my opinion the graded market is being propped up by grading insiders and a lack of information on the population of these grades...pretty soon those insiders will run out of their "prop" money and population reports will start to circulate (even if the community has to create them themselves).  I don't think it is a great time to be an "investor" in videogames.

But, I agree with @Hammerfestus - It depends on what you are buying and what your collecting goals are...If you are buying Pokemon or Sealed/Graded stuff right now, I can almost guarantee you are going to lose money in the long run.  I just don't know how many end buyers there are for a $60,000 sealed/graded Pokemon Red.  Now, if your goals are to have a great Xbox or Wii or PS2/3 or DS/3DS collection on the cheap, this is a great time to buy...because even though the pandemic bumped their value up prematurely, they are still likely much cheaper than they will be 5 years from now.  I would also argue most CIB stuff from the NES/SNES/N64/GEN eras will probably hold value very well...maybe dip in value in the following 2-3 years (-20% at most), but recover pretty quickly.  Cart only is probably more likely to see a prolonged "bust", but not the 40%+ declines like we are going to see on this Pokemon and graded stuff.

If you are a gamer/collector, it is never a bad time to buy, because even if you "overspend", you've got that game that you can play and trade as you see fit!  If you are an investor/collector, you better have conviction that this investment is going to outperform your typical mix of stocks/bonds...because the risk you are taking is exponentially higher than a model portfolio...

Full Disclosure - I've been buying CIB games from various systems all thru the pandemic (In avg to below avg condition mostly to play, and partly to own before/if they get out of control expensive...).  I have no interest in Sealed/graded games.

I’m actually let investor party collector. I grew up with SNES, NES & PlayStation so I’ve been collecting them slowly. However Nintendo stuff seems to be gold at times so I’m actually debating purchasing some newer sealed stuff and holding for the future. 

[OptOut | 8,883]

Prices at all time highs? Check.

Warning signs of an over heated market? Check.

Prices being pumped and manipulated behind the scenes with zero transparency? Check.

Downturns occuring in other overpumped speculative markets? Check.

High likelihood of recession in near future? Check.

 

In the holy words of Bubsy the Bobcat:

[Gloves | 11,776]

1 minute ago, OptOut said:

Prices at all time highs? Check.

Warning signs of an over heated market? Check.

Prices being pumped and manipulated behind the scenes with zero transparency? Check.

Downturns occuring in other overpumped speculative markets? Check.

High likelihood of recession in near future? Check.

 

In the holy words of Bubsy the Bobcat:

ACHTYUALLY!

It's "What could PAW-sibly go wrong?"

[OptOut | 8,883]

1 minute ago, Gloves said:

ACHTYUALLY!

It's "What could PAW-sibly go wrong?"

How dare you make fun of Bubsy's speech impediment! He's VERY self conscious about it, you inconsiderate oaf! 

[YOURTURN | 1,256]

6 hours ago, MrWunderful said:

What would cause the bottom to drop out of the market, and value to go down?

My guess? Sealed N64 games. 

[GPX | 1,369]

3 hours ago, doner24 said:

Is it actually higher risk, because from 2008-2011 my stocks got absolutely destroyed, while my games continued to rise, even starting their initial rocket up in value and haven’t seen any sort of crash since (ever), compared to the ups and down of the stock market that I am heavily invested in. 
 

For over a decade I’ve been seeing people post about a crash, a correction, etc... but the only constant is that people wish they would’ve paid the previous price for a game, that they held back on for various reasons. 

You can at least see the trends in the previous years, and there is some level of hierarchy and some degree of confidence with educated price projections.

Nowadays, if someone asks you “my sealed Pokemon GB Yellow version, ungraded, roughly 9.2 WATA A+ condition, how much is it worth?”

You answer: ..............?

Then a follow-up question, “do you think it will continue to rise by next year?”

You answer: ...............?

[doner24 | 1,195]

9 hours ago, GPX said:

You can at least see the trends in the previous years, and there is some level of hierarchy and some degree of confidence with educated price projections.

Nowadays, if someone asks you “my sealed Pokemon GB Yellow version, ungraded, roughly 9.2 WATA A+ condition, how much is it worth?”

You answer: ..............?

Then a follow-up question, “do you think it will continue to rise by next year?”

You answer: ...............?

People said that exact thing about the SMB that sold for $100,000. Guess what, it would sell for a hell of a lot more than that now. I’m not saying that some things might not be great buys/investments, but so far, we haven’t seen bag holders in video games, like there are in stocks daily. In general, getting in early in a collectible market like this, similar to comics and cards only reaps rewards. 

[GPX | 1,369]

1 hour ago, doner24 said:

People said that exact thing about the SMB that sold for $100,000. Guess what, it would sell for a hell of a lot more than that now. I’m not saying that some things might not be great buys/investments, but so far, we haven’t seen bag holders in video games, like there are in stocks daily. In general, getting in early in a collectible market like this, similar to comics and cards only reaps rewards. 

It can be dangerous if you highlight just the ones tracking upwards. I’m sure there are others which have stagnated or dropped a significant value...Atari sealed Spiderman, anyone?

Anything during this last 12 months can reap rewards but with equal measure of a high risk game. 5-10 years ago, the risks were likely to be worth the reward. Can the same thing be said right now?

[AdamW | 713]

2 hours ago, doner24 said:

People said that exact thing about the SMB that sold for $100,000. Guess what, it would sell for a hell of a lot more than that now. I’m not saying that some things might not be great buys/investments, but so far, we haven’t seen bag holders in video games, like there are in stocks daily. In general, getting in early in a collectible market like this, similar to comics and cards only reaps rewards. 

The key words in your post are "so far". The problem with a market like this is that no-one has yet figured out the trick of knowing when you're about to become a bag holder in a major way.

In any bubble there are no bag holders and you CAN'T LOSE right up until suddenly there are a lot of them. If you buy into the super-priced super-hyped sealed games right now, for reasons other than actually wanting to own one and believing the price is a fair one, you are buying a lottery ticket, just like if you buy bitcoin or doge or stupid NFTs. If you want to take that spin, y'know, no-one can stop you (in most regulatory systems). Is it a wise idea? Well, if you win, I guess sure.

@GPXdidn't say "if you buy it you're definitely gonna lose", did they? They said "?". i.e., things are so out of control and unpredictable and clearly at least partly hype-driven at this point that if you buy in you're taking a big risk. That was true with SMB at $100k and it's true with it at $650k.

If anyone had a perfect crystal ball they wouldn't be here, they'd be buying lottery tickets. All we're saying is, there's no way you can play the current hyped-up sealed market based on actual fundamental knowledge of video games, because a lot of what's going on in it doesn't have much to do with fundamental truths about video games. So you're not going to get very far asking a bunch of people who actually love collecting video games whether now's a good time to buy, because this market has as much to do with love of video games as the NFT market has to do with deep appreciation of pixel art or the cryptocurrency pump market has to do with really loving cryptocurrencies.

Edited May 17, 2021 by AdamW

[doner24 | 1,195]

25 minutes ago, AdamW said:

The key words in your post are "so far". The problem with a market like this is that no-one has yet figured out the trick of knowing when you're about to become a bag holder in a major way.

In any bubble there are no bag holders and you CAN'T LOSE right up until suddenly there are a lot of them. If you buy into the super-priced super-hyped sealed games right now, for reasons other than actually wanting to own one and believing the price is a fair one, you are buying a lottery ticket, just like if you buy bitcoin or doge or stupid NFTs. If you want to take that spin, y'know, no-one can stop you (in most regulatory systems). Is it a wise idea? Well, if you win, I guess sure.

@GPXdidn't say "if you buy it you're definitely gonna lose", did they? They said "?". i.e., things are so out of control and unpredictable and clearly at least partly hype-driven at this point that if you buy in you're taking a big risk. That was true with SMB at $100k and it's true with it at $650k.

If anyone had a perfect crystal ball they wouldn't be here, they'd be buying lottery tickets. All we're saying is, there's no way you can play the current hyped-up sealed market based on actual fundamental knowledge of video games, because a lot of what's going on in it doesn't have much to do with fundamental truths about video games. So you're not going to get very far asking a bunch of people who actually love collecting video games whether now's a good time to buy, because this market has as much to do with love of video games as the NFT market has to do with deep appreciation of pixel art or the cryptocurrency pump market has to do with really loving cryptocurrencies.

He said that the stock market is safer, and I don’t think that’s necessarily true. We have a couple decades worth of pricing history for these collectibles, and I have a couple decades worth of experience collecting them. I feel more at ease with my collection as an investment right now, than my stocks. 

[AdamW | 713]

Well, it depends what stocks you're talking about, and your timelines. There's a huge difference between buying an index tracker and day trading penny stocks. The latter's just as dangerous as sealed Pokemon games or NFTs or crypto. The former, with a 5-10 year window, is much safer.

If your horizon is less than 5 years, the only truly safe investment is a guaranteed one backed by a government, whatever those are called where you live. You could lose money on anything else. (Though still, you're much less likely to lose all or nearly all your money investing it in high-quality stocks than investing it in something highly speculative, or picking low-quality stocks).

[AdamW | 713]

Also, if you have a couple of decades of experience, that implies you bought a lot of your collection at much lower prices. I'd be quite at ease with that too, because it means the market can fall a long way before you're underwater.

Would you be as comfortable if you had to re-buy the whole collection right now at current prices?

[doner24 | 1,195]

15 minutes ago, AdamW said:

Also, if you have a couple of decades of experience, that implies you bought a lot of your collection at much lower prices. I'd be quite at ease with that too, because it means the market can fall a long way before you're underwater.

Would you be as comfortable if you had to re-buy the whole collection right now at current prices?

I have a lot of stock in companies from decades ago too, and I believe that they are more likely to see a big dip than my collectibles any time soon. 
 

I am still actively adding to my collection, so paying current prices with no problem. Sure I wish I would’ve picked this stuff up years ago, but not worried about it going down in value. Disclaimer: While I have quite a lot of sealed games from purchasing lots over the years, I don’t actively buy or sell sealed games or anything graded. 

[AdamW | 713]

Ah, well, then that's a bit of a different topic! As @Naked Warriorsaid, this was posted in the sealed forum, so I figured that's what we're talking about in the thread.

The market outside of hyped-up sealed games is a different one, with lower stakes and less of a ridiculous recent runup in prices. So it certainly seems less risky in several ways.