jonebone

We usually eat out or get to go every fri and at night, sometimes Sunday too. But since the restaurants have been on lockdown, we havent done that this weekend. Dont really want to go out and risk exposure anymore than necessary.

We're not afraid of anyone. It is necessary spending. We print money if we need more, sad as that sounds, and that's how this country has operated a long time. This isn't a household budget where you cut back on eating out so you can spend more on something else. It's a budget where the defense spending is fixed, then you print money to address other areas. I understand our government is woefully inept at spending money, but poking at the defense budget isn't the answer.

Also on the topic of Italy, I believe their median age is about 47 compared to USA at 37. Italy is one of the oldest countries in the world and will have the highest death rate. Of course we'll pass them in total cases due to size but out percentage death rate will be lower.

If anyone ever attacked Canada on their own soil who do you think you'd run to? We dont just spent trillions on the military because we have to, we do not because we have to in order to keep up with rest of the world. I work in the military and USA really isnt number 1 in the world any more. China has a ton of stuff and were really just keeping up with them.

Well, we can have a vaccine well ahead of 12 montha, it just wont be approved for public release. It's the testing that is the long pole in the process. Teams can whip up drugs pretty quickly. But they have to make sure they work as intended, dont have side effects and generalize the test results to make sure they work across a wide spectrum of people. It does seem that some other drugs have have been useful in treating it, so maybe one of those can bridge the gap. I'm also very skeptical that 40 to 70% will get it. I expect cases to peak in a month or two, then slow down a lot over the summer and break out again in fall when schools try to resume. Time will tell.

Most of my joycons seem to do this too at this point...

I thought they already released a statement that they changed their tune and were going to shut down in areas with mandatory closures?

I'm also expecting the "We have a vaccine" to be the spark that does turn the stock market around when that does happen. I'm not saying that a vaccine is going to be some magical cure all that ends everything, but the public perception factor will be huge.

I have a watchlist of tons of stocks I'd just love to own, but didn't want to buy into the highs and hope for higher. Those two imparticular I think are severely over beaten at their current valuations with no risk of going under. It's no so much that I want them because of COVID-19 or anything, just that I've always believed in those two companies. Specifically: Never have met anyone who didn't enjoy Cheesecake Factory. I try to go there every year for my bday, I enjoy it. They have 100s of options on the menu and dozens of cheesecakes that are all amazing. It's really quite odd, most places with large menus you expect to specialize in nothing, yet I've never had an entree there I didn't enjoy. And as far as nationwide dessert places go, they fit that niche as well as the dinner and lunch. It's unique enough that I don't worry about over saturation in restaurants. Kohl's has a partnership with Amazon and also uses Kohls cash. You spend $50 they give you $5 to $10 in Kohls cash that expires in a week or two. Basically tries to convert many customers to subscribers in a sense, where they are in the store at least every 2 weeks. JCPenneys is destined for bankruptcy, Macy's is tied to to many Malls in my experiences. Kohls has lots of standalone stores plus a good web store front and heavy marketing. As retailers go out of business Kohls is positioned to absorb their market share.

About damn time! Welcome aboard.

So I follow another COVID thread on another much larger forum (Honda-Tech) over 5300 posts in it already. Here's some real front line feedback. One guy in the thread (Northern VA) had his wife just test positive for it. They had to sign paperwork saying they would quarantine until all symptoms are resolved and then an additional 72 hours. They were told to go absolutely no where, get stuff delivered and left on door step. His wife has asthma so he's a bit concerned but she's doing okay now other than laying around with a fever. One guy in thread works in a Chicago hospital as an NP and is beyond stressed out. He says front line people have no protective equipment, most of the ICU has fevers and pneumonia, but it takes about 3 days for a test to come back. So they have no idea who has it or not and just are treating the symptoms as best they can. He fears it is only a matter of time before staff start coming down with it. Other news, seems to be a somewhat credible link about a Japenese drug that is "clearly effective" in treating COVID. https://nypost.com/2020/03/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-officials-say/

Pretty much all sold, thanks for interest everyone. Finally had a chance to go through a lot of my extras, prices as marked, conditions noted as well. Some range from Mint with poster to the VG / Acceptable range as noted. Free USA shipping on orders over $50, otherwise will charge actual shipping for lower orders or international. Send a message if interested, thanks! Title Box Man Cart Extras Price Airwolf VG G G $ 14 American Gladiators G Ex Ex $ 15 Bart vs. Space Mutants MINT MINT MINT Poster! $ 45 Dragon Warrior (1HP 1st Print) G VG VG $ 25 Flintstones MINT MINT MINT Taito Poster $ 65 Ghosts N Goblins (Hangtab!) Ex VG VG $ 90 Greg Norman Golf Power G Ex Ex $ 12 Ikari Warriors (Hangtab!) NrMt VG Ex $ 70 Ikari Warriors II G Ex VG $ 18 Joe & Mac (SNES) VG Ex VG $ 40 John Elway QB G VG VG $ 8 Jurassic Park (Tear on box back) Acptble Ex Ex $ 25 Kid Niki Acptble Poor VG $ 25 Klash Ball VG Ex VG $ 30 Little Ninja Bros (IB Only) VG Ex $ 90 Mighty Bombjack (Hangtab!) G VG Ex $ 60 Nintendo World Cup G Ex Ex $ 14 Palamedes Ex Acptble Ex $ 25 Peter Pan Ex Ex Ex $ 45 Platoon G Ex Ex $ 15 Punisher G Ex Ex Poster! $ 60 Puss N Boots VG Ex Ex Poster! $ 45 RBI Baseball 3 G Ex G $ 16 Tom & Jerry Ex Ex Ex HiTec Poster $ 30 Wolverine VG Ex Ex $ 55

I'm not sure I necessarily agree with overloading kids on screen time as a form of education. My kindergarter does have a Dreambox / Reading Eggs account she can use and we let her do an hour or two of that a day. I also buy these big workbooks off Amazon, typically 100-150 pages and lasts them a week or two. One for the 3 year old and one for the 5 year old. Helps occupy them while we do other work too.

Yeah Boeing had a long way to fall IMO. As for dividends I would assume at least half if not more companies are going to cut them significantly or abolish them next cycle. They wont have a choice when their projected earnings turn into significant losses as doors are shuttered. Theres soo many companies I've had on my watch list that are tempting but I've held off this far. A couple that I've really wanted are CAKE and KSS but I'd rather be a little to late after the bottom than too early and watch the ride down. I recommend going back to the 08 collapse and looking at some of those daily charts. Tradingview.com is a good free site. You can see how many times a stock hit a false rally only to bottom out even further than anyone could have imagined at the time. You can never predict the bottom but you can watch for volatility to taper down at least.

They think death rate is about 1% of infected, about 10x as lethal as flu. Then use whatever assumption that you want but exponential spread will infect a lot if you dont get it under control early. What seems like too early is far better than too late.

Ah, yes then my death rates are vastly overstated. I would agree 35k death rate then, rest of numbers are just taken directly from CDC with assumptions applied as noted.

No, 3.5M infected and 350k death rate (1%) from that. The very top table is the Flu CDC data which coincidentally shows about 35Million infected in a typical flu season. Sorry I know it was a lot of numbers...

350k deaths, i.e. 1% of infected. The seasonal flu has a death rate of about 0.1% of infected and most disease experts are saying COVID looks to be around 1%. Some unreputable media hype have it at 3-4% but the experts have it much lower, though very high compared to flu.

Not to scare anyone but I've seen lots of numbers thrown around about how bad this will get. Being the numbers guy I am, I wanted to do my own analysis. I'm not in the medical industry but I am a professional cost estimator at least. The caveat here is that an estimate is only as good as the data you use to forecast and the reasonableness of your assumptions. Having said that I'm going to estimate about 3.5M infected and that would put us around 350k deaths @ 1%. Here's my analysis if anyone wants to see how you arrive at that number, based on real data from CDC or other scholarly sources. The bad: COVID-19 is almost "twice as infectious" as Flu (R0 of 2.2 vs. 1.3), with a higher mortality rate. Scare tactics have it at 3-4% but most experts seem to agree around 1% on this vs. 0.1% on Flu (10x as bad.) There's no vaccine. Yet CDC estimates show vaccine effectiveness can vary between 5 and 27% in a year (look at 2014-2015 season, that flu shot wasn't worth a damn). The good: CDC says hand washing can reduce spread of respiratory illnesses by about 1/5th. And we're doing a lot of that. Studies show that school closure effectiveness is at least about 21% at 90% compliance. If children and teenagers are kept home you can get an effectiveness of closer to 90%. The flu is definitely seasonal and we're running into this at the end of flu season. Experts are divided about COVID-19 impact but I would be a lot of money that we will come out far better in this outbreak by starting now going into summer as opposed to Fall going into Winter. That is a blessing in disguise that no one is really talking about. Travel restrictions and mass gathering reductions will also have a huge impact on spread. I'm assuming about 50% personally but even if you go with a modest percentage of 20% (which is reasonable compared to the other CDC or scholarly endorsed assumptions, that is substantial.) Graph for reference on Flu seasonality, also from CDC. Hope this info at least lets people better understand some of the numbers getting thrown around. Edit: BTW, at a minimum, if you don't think COVID-19 will be seasonal, the seasonality of the flu will at least free up hospital beds that would otherwise be occupied in the winter months during the heart of flu season. So yes, don't panic because the Flu wrecks a good 1% of the population every year. But also be prepared, because we're all likely going to know at least one person who contracts this new virus.

Agree 8.5 to 9.0 on Wata scale from what I see.

You realize there's an oil price war, the likes of which I'm not sure we've ever seen, happening at the moment too? Not getting as much news obviously but Russia and Iran have basically agreed to screw their economies to spite ours. The USA oil industry is going to get massive layoffs too that are not virus related. And if we're being told to stay home and not spend that money, the oil cost savings in our pocket won't amount to spending in the economy.

Did you see that QE5 for about $700B was part of that rate cut too? They really did fire their bazooka shot. Too much too soon, further attempts are really going to devalue the dollar even more. I suspect the market is going to see through this, realize that there's simply no way to get through this without even more Govt. intervention, and the market is really going to go in the shitter.

Yeah, we all saw that fall off a cliff rate drop coming right? Shaking my head... We knew they would drop them but most people expected it be a bit gradual and keep some ammo in the gun. The gaming analogy would be you walk into a 100 floor dungeon and go through all your healing potions on the first floor. Can you make it through the other 99 floors?

Ugh... Fed reduced their rates to zero already! My gosh, this is way worse than I could have imagined. This is being spun as a health crisis but it is no longer than that, it is a full fledged economic crisis that is going to get much worse. They just dropped rates a couple of weeks ago, they have effectively used all of their ammo at this point. And we're just getting started on the closures and outbreak! Bottom is going to fall out of the stock market, who knows where we'll end up. Not necessarily in a day but god only knows how low it'll go.

This x100. I went to my grandmother in laws 90th birthday at Outback this weekend, about 40 people there. The exact opposite of what the media wants you to do now. But at end of day, shes beat breast cancer decades ago, outlived her husband by 15 to 20 years and even survived a major heart surgery in her 70s. Shes a devout Christian and would be truly at peace when it's her time. I was surprised the family wanted to go thru with the outing but she insisted. End of day, media hype is way overblown at this point. I agree with some of the large scale cancellations and avoiding most travel but at some point you have to live your life. Take precautions but no need to live like it's an apocalypse out there.