The Retro Video Game Market Has Officially CRASHED

[Code Monkey | 2,011]

15 minutes ago, Dr. Morbis said:

No it won't, you just haven't been in this hobby long enough to know that.  Graded/1st Print collecting is an articial market because it had no natural demand; it is a new, unnecessary and unwanted market (to the people already in the hobby beforehand) created by the WATA founders to make boat loads of cash.  Who ever talked about first print games in the last twenty years before WATA?  Oh yeah: nobody!

This market is not and will not be cyclical because all of the hype men (WATA founders) have already sold the company and filled their bags and walked away with big-ass smiles smeared across their faces.  People like you who have spent thousands on sealed/graded games really don't want to be hearing all of this, so of course you'll be defending your "investments" to Kingdom come, but all I have to say to that is: I hope your video games are not your retirement fund...

I don't collect sealed games and I have no interest in sealed games. I prefer to collect complete, opened but along the way I have gotten the odd sealed game in a lot or for $5 at a flea market. I don't care if the market turns to dust but if it does happen to go to the moon, the 20-40 sealed games I do have will sky rocket so I don't care either way.

Sure, nobody talked about sealed games before 2020 but everything starts somewhere. It wasn't an organic growth but I think video games have a lot of room to grow to align with comics. Everyone wants a Superman comic and everyone wants issue number 1. Not issue number 2, not 3, they want the first one. It's the same with video games, people want the first printing of a game. I bought a family member a book for Christmas a few years ago and instead of paying $20 at the book store, I bought a 80 year old first print for much, much more. I do think a sticker sealed Super Mario Bros. is worth at least 1/3 a Superman issue 1 which sold for over $3,000,000.

[Dr. Morbis | 2,089]

3 hours ago, Code Monkey said:

I don't collect sealed games and I have no interest in sealed games. I prefer to collect complete, opened but along the way I have gotten the odd sealed game in a lot or for $5 at a flea market. I don't care if the market turns to dust but if it does happen to go to the moon, the 20-40 sealed games I do have will sky rocket so I don't care either way.

Sure, nobody talked about sealed games before 2020 but everything starts somewhere. It wasn't an organic growth but I think video games have a lot of room to grow to align with comics. Everyone wants a Superman comic and everyone wants issue number 1. Not issue number 2, not 3, they want the first one. It's the same with video games, people want the first printing of a game. I bought a family member a book for Christmas a few years ago and instead of paying $20 at the book store, I bought a 80 year old first print for much, much more. I do think a sticker sealed Super Mario Bros. is worth at least 1/3 a Superman issue 1 which sold for over $3,000,000.

Yeah, but the first Superman (Action Comics #1) is absolutely undisputable, whereas the release that you're calling the first SMB is not actually the first SMB; that label belongs to the first print run of the game in Japan on the Famicom, which seems to have been conveniently forgotten by the hype train.  It's not even a name change or code change either - the exact identical game with the exact identical name had already been released!

Of course Mint sealed NES games will always be worth something, it just isn't going to be seven figures for generations to come like all the WATA/Heritage talk had been leading many to believe...

[CIB_Wholesale | 418]

  

On 11/8/2023 at 10:16 AM, DefaultGen said:

You guys are still talking about video games? Lmao, everyone collects concert posters now. Get with the times.

You guys are still talking about Concert posters? Lmao, everyone collects 2 dollar bills now. Get with the times.

 

 

 

https://www.wbaltv.com/article/do-you-know-how-much-your-dollar2-bills-are-worth/45793633

 

 

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by CIB_Wholesale

[Estil | 1,265]

On 11/8/2023 at 9:13 AM, Gloves said:

... according to Karl Jobst:

How does it make you feel to know that your investments are now WORTHLESS? Let me know in the comments below!

Pathetic clickbaiter...he doesn't mean the retro video game market in general, he just means those silly overhyped graded ones.

[Code Monkey | 2,011]

12 hours ago, Dr. Morbis said:

Yeah, but the first Superman (Action Comics #1) is absolutely undisputable, whereas the release that you're calling the first SMB is not actually the first SMB; that label belongs to the first print run of the game in Japan on the Famicom, which seems to have been conveniently forgotten by the hype train.  It's not even a name change or code change either - the exact identical game with the exact identical name had already been released!

Of course Mint sealed NES games will always be worth something, it just isn't going to be seven figures for generations to come like all the WATA/Heritage talk had been leading many to believe...

I don't disagree but I can understand it. I'd rather have the first release of Optimus Prime rather than the actual first Microman release of the same toy in Japan. The Japanese toy means nothing to me.

[xelement5x | 66]

On 11/10/2023 at 10:38 PM, Dr. Morbis said:

Yeah, but the first Superman (Action Comics #1) is absolutely undisputable, whereas the release that you're calling the first SMB is not actually the first SMB; that label belongs to the first print run of the game in Japan on the Famicom, which seems to have been conveniently forgotten by the hype train.  It's not even a name change or code change either - the exact identical game with the exact identical name had already been released!

Of course Mint sealed NES games will always be worth something, it just isn't going to be seven figures for generations to come like all the WATA/Heritage talk had been leading many to believe...

Yeah, the goofiness around first print and all the inane details that US collectors focus on has always been odd to me.  I feel like the key value points from comic collecting (first appearance, first print, misprint, low print, etc) have all just been pasted on top of video game collecting due to early overlaps in the communities.  

I'm not discounting these different caveats around collecting games from being interesting, or even fun to learn about and document, but it feels artificially imposed if you look at early video game collecting compared to now.

Though, I'm sure if comic companies could spin a way to cellophane wrap a comic book so you had to open that to read it and make another level of new/sealed collecting, the market would lose its mind.

[DefaultGen | 5,408]

2 minutes ago, xelement5x said:

Though, I'm sure if comic companies could spin a way to cellophane wrap a comic book so you had to open that to read it and make another level of new/sealed collecting, the market would lose its mind.

Maybe throw a trading card in there, put a big badge calling it a super collectible release, aw yeah baby we're in the 90s, the most collectible era of comics!

[ThePhleo | 2,185]

1 hour ago, xelement5x said:

Yeah, the goofiness around first print and all the inane details that US collectors focus on has always been odd to me.  I feel like the key value points from comic collecting (first appearance, first print, misprint, low print, etc) have all just been pasted on top of video game collecting due to early overlaps in the communities.  

There's a lot of factors about variants that make them so interesting. Take for example just Super Mario Bros. for the NES.

In the US, we have something like 13 different boxes for SMB. Just boxes alone!

 

[spacepup | 2,405]

On 11/11/2023 at 8:23 AM, Estil said:

Pathetic clickbaiter...he doesn't mean the retro video game market in general, he just means those silly overhyped graded ones.

I don't think he's pathetic at all.  I also don't think that was intentionally deceptive.  As it relates to his research on the issue, most of his prior discussions / analysis, were indeed around the graded market craze.

As for the big letters and shock face stuff, all the popular content creators do it and yea, it's a bit annoying and cringey, but it's just part of the game.  I wouldn't call any of them pathetic or completely disregard their content because of it.

 

[xelement5x | 66]

1 hour ago, DefaultGen said:

Maybe throw a trading card in there, put a big badge calling it a super collectible release, aw yeah baby we're in the 90s, the most collectible era of comics!

LOL, when I read this post it was in your voice from CQ almost automatically.

 

17 minutes ago, ThePhleo said:

There's a lot of factors about variants that make them so interesting. Take for example just Super Mario Bros. for the NES.

In the US, we have something like 13 different boxes for SMB. Just boxes alone!

 

I do agree, there is a lot of cool information out there and neat things to see. Weird changes we're not sure why they happen are interesting to learn about.  One of my favorites is the red box Wonder Dog for Sega CD, it's so random and I'm unsure why they would have changed it.

[RH | 4,908]

Hey, I own that comic from my childhood, but I don't have it sealed with a card though!

 

[the_wizard_666 | 1,325]

1 hour ago, ThePhleo said:

There's a lot of factors about variants that make them so interesting. Take for example just Super Mario Bros. for the NES.

In the US, we have something like 13 different boxes for SMB. Just boxes alone!

 

13 different variants that 99% of people will never notice.  Round vs Oval seal would be the only clearly noticed variation, the rest are so inane that most people would never know nor care about them.

[DefaultGen | 5,408]

15 minutes ago, the_wizard_666 said:

13 different variants that 99% of people will never notice.  Round vs Oval seal would be the only clearly noticed variation, the rest are so inane that most people would never know nor care about them.

Phleo explaining how 1mm print shift variants are real and they can hurt you.

[a3quit4s | 4,102]

A+ photoshopping skills as always lmao

[ThePhleo | 2,185]

3 hours ago, the_wizard_666 said:

13 different variants that 99% of people will never notice.  Round vs Oval seal would be the only clearly noticed variation, the rest are so inane that most people would never know nor care about them.

Ackshually....well you're right. So much of it is obscure and tiny.

Super Mario Bros. (Boxes)

1. Circle, Hangtab, Matte Nintendo® Sticker
2. Circle, Hangtab, Gloss Nintendo® Sticker
3. Circle, Hangtab, Gloss Nintendo® Sticker, NES-GP
4. Circle, Hangtab, NES-GP
5. Circle, Hangtab, NES P SM
6. Circle, Hangtab, NES Logo ™
7. Circle, Flatback, No REV-A
8. Circle, Flatback, REV-A, No Flap Codes
9. Circle, Flatback, REV-A, NES-SM-USA Flap Code
10. Oval™, 3 Line Warranty, NES-SM-USA Flap Code, New Zip Code
11. Oval™, 4 Line Warranty without Mexico, NES-SM-USA★ Flap Code, New Zip Code
12. Oval®, 4 Line Warranty with Mexico, NES-SM-USA★ Flap Code, New Zip Code

Then I still can't confirm if these three variants exist:

1. Circle, No Sticker, No NES-GP (would probably go between box variant 2 and 3)
2. Circle, Flatback, REV-A, No Flap Codes, Flat UPC
3. Circle, Flatback, REV-A, Flap Codes, Flat UPC

Then there's the possible double sticker permutations...

1. Matte Sticker under Matte Sticker
2. Matte Sticker under Gloss Sticker
3. Gloss Sticker under Gloss Sticker, No NES-GP
4. Gloss Sticker under Gloss Sticker, NES-GP

[Estil | 1,265]

5 hours ago, spacepup said:

I don't think he's pathetic at all.  I also don't think that was intentionally deceptive.  As it relates to his research on the issue, most of his prior discussions / analysis, were indeed around the graded market craze.

As for the big letters and shock face stuff, all the popular content creators do it and yea, it's a bit annoying and cringey, but it's just part of the game.  I wouldn't call any of them pathetic or completely disregard their content because of it.

I think YouTube should make some sort of rule/reporting feature if the title is clickbaitey...not take down the video mind you.  But reword the title in a non-deceptive way.  I honestly thought at first maybe the retro video game market in general has crashed (like now all of a sudden my retro NES/SNES cartridges are suddenly worth much less) but nope, it only means those stupid gimmick graded games.  I mean grading makes perfect sense for trading cards and coins (if for no other reason to ensure you get the real deal and that the card is not trimmed or compromised in someway) but for video games it's mostly a big gimmick, as seen in that video.

[Brickman | 3,990]

1 hour ago, ThePhleo said:

Ackshually....well you're right. So much of it is obscure and tiny.

Super Mario Bros. (Boxes)

1. Circle, Hangtab, Matte Nintendo® Sticker
2. Circle, Hangtab, Gloss Nintendo® Sticker
3. Circle, Hangtab, Gloss Nintendo® Sticker, NES-GP
4. Circle, Hangtab, NES-GP
5. Circle, Hangtab, NES P SM
6. Circle, Hangtab, NES Logo ™
7. Circle, Flatback, No REV-A
8. Circle, Flatback, REV-A, No Flap Codes
9. Circle, Flatback, REV-A, NES-SM-USA Flap Code
10. Oval™, 3 Line Warranty, NES-SM-USA Flap Code, New Zip Code
11. Oval™, 4 Line Warranty without Mexico, NES-SM-USA★ Flap Code, New Zip Code
12. Oval®, 4 Line Warranty with Mexico, NES-SM-USA★ Flap Code, New Zip Code

Then I still can't confirm if these three variants exist:

1. Circle, No Sticker, No NES-GP (would probably go between box variant 2 and 3)
2. Circle, Flatback, REV-A, No Flap Codes, Flat UPC
3. Circle, Flatback, REV-A, Flap Codes, Flat UPC

Then there's the possible double sticker permutations...

1. Matte Sticker under Matte Sticker
2. Matte Sticker under Gloss Sticker
3. Gloss Sticker under Gloss Sticker, No NES-GP
4. Gloss Sticker under Gloss Sticker, NES-GP

I mean this in the nicest way possible. You are a mad man 

[Link | 2,714]

48 minutes ago, Estil said:

I think YouTube should make some sort of rule/reporting feature if the title is clickbaitey...not take down the video mind you.  But reword the title in a non-deceptive way.  I honestly thought at first maybe the retro video game market in general has crashed (like now all of a sudden my retro NES/SNES cartridges are suddenly worth much less) but nope, it only means those stupid gimmick graded games.  I mean grading makes perfect sense for trading cards and coins (if for no other reason to ensure you get the real deal and that the card is not trimmed or compromised in someway) but for video games it's mostly a big gimmick, as seen in that video.

Like what are you envisioning here? No !s allowed? No words in CAPS? A list of forbidden words like “destroys”? (as stupid as I think that one is in the clickbait usage) Is there a tally count with a threshold? How do you even begin to define this?

Edited November 17, 2023 by Link

[Dr. Morbis | 2,089]

1 hour ago, ThePhleo said:

Ackshually....well you're right. So much of it is obscure and tiny.

Super Mario Bros. (Boxes)

1. Circle, Hangtab, Matte Nintendo® Sticker
2. Circle, Hangtab, Gloss Nintendo® Sticker
3. Circle, Hangtab, Gloss Nintendo® Sticker, NES-GP
4. Circle, Hangtab, NES-GP
5. Circle, Hangtab, NES P SM
6. Circle, Hangtab, NES Logo ™
7. Circle, Flatback, No REV-A
8. Circle, Flatback, REV-A, No Flap Codes
9. Circle, Flatback, REV-A, NES-SM-USA Flap Code
10. Oval™, 3 Line Warranty, NES-SM-USA Flap Code, New Zip Code
11. Oval™, 4 Line Warranty without Mexico, NES-SM-USA★ Flap Code, New Zip Code
12. Oval®, 4 Line Warranty with Mexico, NES-SM-USA★ Flap Code, New Zip Code

Then I still can't confirm if these three variants exist:

1. Circle, No Sticker, No NES-GP (would probably go between box variant 2 and 3)
2. Circle, Flatback, REV-A, No Flap Codes, Flat UPC
3. Circle, Flatback, REV-A, Flap Codes, Flat UPC

Then there's the possible double sticker permutations...

1. Matte Sticker under Matte Sticker
2. Matte Sticker under Gloss Sticker
3. Gloss Sticker under Gloss Sticker, No NES-GP
4. Gloss Sticker under Gloss Sticker, NES-GP

The funny thing about this is that there are really NO variants for the SMB box - there's literally one box design and that's it!  It's just crazy how far you can go when you want to start nitpicking, and I'm pretty sure you don't have every "variant" listed above either, as there will be more super rare ones (or misprints or whatever) yet to be discovered.  But this isn't like silver Metroid versus yellow Metroid; for the rest of the universe, there is only SMB box...

[ThePhleo | 2,185]

2 hours ago, Dr. Morbis said:

The funny thing about this is that there are really NO variants for the SMB box - there's literally one box design and that's it!  It's just crazy how far you can go when you want to start nitpicking, and I'm pretty sure you don't have every "variant" listed above either, as there will be more super rare ones (or misprints or whatever) yet to be discovered.  But this isn't like silver Metroid versus yellow Metroid; for the rest of the universe, there is only SMB box...

Well....again "ackshtually"

There's two box designs.

It's never brought up because it's a redundant callout, but during the switch from Circle SoQ to Oval SoQ the layout of the back changes near the bottom.

NES Logo is completely different, copyright block and legal text changes, position of the NES-GP thing. Lots of stuff moves around.

 

BUT, yes I agree with you on this point.

You're gonna love what I'm working on when I publish it because I do split up "Box Changes" as unique editions, and everything else as variants.

The purpose is to make variants take a back burner position again, yet document that they exist. The structure of my database works like this.

 

GAME - The overall game, regardless of region

REGION - The "lockout" region, North America, PAL A, PAL B, Famicom, and "Others"

RELEASE - What we consider "subregions" or "marketing region", so the USA Release, or the Canadian release, or the Greek release (etc.)

EDITION - Think, Big Box Gyromite vs. Small box, or Blue box Untouchables vs. Black Box.

VARIANT - This is where all 12 of the SMB box variants I listed go. Yep, only one edition but 12 variants.

So to draw it all out...

I guess @Brickman you are correct...I am a little mad.

Edited November 17, 2023 by ThePhleo

[Link | 2,714]

51 minutes ago, Dr. Morbis said:

It's just crazy how far you can go when you want to start nitpicking, and I'm pretty sure you don't have every "variant" listed above either, as there will be more super rare ones ... But this isn't like silver Metroid versus yellow Metroid...

I think the people in that space of collecting have taken the narrowest aspects of print runs from the book world and the comics world and cards and coins and everything else and combined them to give every single minimal detail as much weight as possible.

[Dr. Morbis | 2,089]

1 hour ago, ThePhleo said:

Well....again "ackshtually"

There's two box designs.

It's never brought up because it's a redundant callout, but during the switch from Circle SoQ to Oval SoQ the layout of the back changes near the bottom.

NES Logo is completely different, copyright block and legal text changes, position of the NES-GP thing. Lots of stuff moves around.

 

BUT, yes I agree with you on this point.

You're gonna love what I'm working on when I publish it because I do split up "Box Changes" as unique editions, and everything else as variants.

The purpose is to make variants take a back burner position again, yet document that they exist. The structure of my database works like this.

 

GAME - The overall game, regardless of region

REGION - The "lockout" region, North America, PAL A, PAL B, Famicom, and "Others"

RELEASE - What we consider "subregions", so the USA Release, or the Canadian release, or the Greek release (etc.)

EDITION - Think, Big Box Gyromite vs. Small box, or Blue box Untouchables vs. Black Box.

VARIANT - This is where all 12 of the SMB box variants I listed go. Yep, only one edition but 12 variants.

So to draw it all out...

I guess @Brickman you are correct...I am a little mad.

Yeah, I think it's awesome that you are recording all this for posterity and taking it to such a ridiculous degree, and I applaud you for it; I'm just saying that: outside of this niche within a niche within a niche, there is only one SMB box

[ThePhleo | 2,185]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Morbis said:

Yeah, I think it's awesome that you are recording all this for posterity and taking it to such a ridiculous degree, and I applaud you for it; I'm just saying that: outside of this niche within a niche within a niche, there is only one SMB box

 

Well..........

ASHLY....

[Dr. Morbis | 2,089]

3 minutes ago, ThePhleo said:

 

Well..........

ASHLY....

I meant only one US SMB box, but, I can see with you there is no end to the madness.  I don't know how you can sleep at night...

[ThePhleo | 2,185]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Morbis said:

I meant only one US SMB box, but, I can see with you there is no end to the madness.  I don't know how you can sleep at night...

I know, I just had to get one more in.

No joke, I do not get much sleep because of this. My life would be infinitely better if I wasn't this deep into NES variant hunting, and my hobby has absolutely taken over a significant portion of my life that I could be better spending with my family and friends.

It's probably an addiction of sorts and I need to finally publish my data so I can finally rest BEFORE I die.

EDIT: Also, I forgot the YAPON Rental version of SMB...Forgive me Yamauchi-sama.

Edited November 17, 2023 by ThePhleo