ThePhleo

3 hours ago, T-Pac said:

18 - Cosmic Turtle from Space Fortress [Bally Astrocade - 1981]

@ThePhleo - it may not be as crazy as previous years, but I still worked hard on this one.

[T-Pac]

Oh wow! This still took a ton of imagination!

Maybe I won’t go as hard on you next year and I was planning

In other news, I need this to be a space Pokémon or something…

HAPPY 38TH BIRTHDAY TO THE NES!

October 18, 1985 at approximately 9AM the people of New York City, shopping at FAO Schwarz on Fifth Avenue got their first chance to purchase the first Nintendo Entertainment System.

(Sorry @T-Pac for using an AI image)

22 hours ago, T-Pac said:

16 - Octopus from Parodius Da [Nintendo Famicom - 1990]

@Jeevan - the Octopus is my go-to character in Parodius, too!

Also - this is officially the HALFWAY POINT OF INK-TOBER! Woohoo!

[T-Pac]

Love that you made him an actual octopus and not a hexopus like in the sprite!

But also, I wanted to see him in a cute Hachimaki

Always. Even in familiar areas.

I don't always use it to navigate, but I do use it to spot traffic and speed traps as @SNESNESCUBE64 suggested.

Checking your route ahead of time is a modern miracle. It's foolish not to use it.

58 minutes ago, T-Pac said:

15 - Evil Otto from Berzerk [Atari 2600 - 1982]

@G-type good call on this one. Might be my favorite entry of the year so far!
(And fun fact - every time you blast a robot in Berzerk, you get a glimpse of Evil Otto's face in the explosion).

[T-Pac]

You made Evil Otto even scarier, because this dude bounces like 30 feet high and comes at you at a very fast pace....

Holy....

I never realized, but you're right!

Also, I'm getting some FNAF vibes and I love it.

**S Tier**

• Pikachu 
• Clefairy
• Vulpix 
• Jigglypuff 
• Ponita 
• Seel 
• Chansey
• Growlithe
• Horsea 
• Lapras
• Ditto
• Eevee 
• Mew 

**A Tier**

• Charmander
• Caterpie 
• Oddish 
• Meowth 
• Psyduck 
• Slowpoke
• Slowbro 
• Goldeen 
• Flareon 
• Arcticuno
• Dratini 

**B Tier**

• Bulbasaur
• Squirtle 
• Diglett 
• Poliwag
• Bellsprout
• Magnemite 
• Farfetch’d
• Snorlax

**C Tier**

• Everyone Else

**D Tier**

• Coffing
• Weezing
• Grimer
• Muk
• Drowzee

**F Tier**

• Mr. Mime
• Jynx

6 hours ago, Jaden said:

Change that to "all Nintendo consoles suck" and it would be more accurate.

5 hours ago, Reed Rothchild said:

Newman Haas surprises me.  I never noticed,and we never discussed on NA.

Fixed!

5 hours ago, spacepup said:

Watching by as coincidentally, completely unrelated I'm sure, all the copies start disappearing from ebay hah!

What have I done...

5 hours ago, Jaden said:

Hey man, great work on putting this together! I always knew that a lot of the rarities in the old guides were inaccurate. And seeing some of the differences here really opened my eyes. While there are the obvious outliers like Stadium Events and the Panesian titles, I never really noticed much difference between rarity for those games on the back half of the scale. Like what really is the difference in rarity between something like a Dinosaur Peak and a Pro Sport Hockey? Is some maniac gonna try hunting down every single copy of these games and compare them to try and prove the difference? And even then, what we do with those results would be entirely subjective to the person compiling them and what they classify as the different levels of rarity. So, I agree that we'll never end up with a 100% accurate guide for rarity. Despite this, I still think this could be a great reference to flip through and potentially see how likely you are to come across a certain game. Overall, fantastic job!

Thanks.

I just like fiddling with data like this and try to make something out of it.

In 90 days, I'm more than sure things can jump a little. I'm willing to bet there a 1.5± margin of error for anything in the list.

4 hours ago, Code Monkey said:

How did I do on the top 50?

 

Loose carts? Oh my! (Actually, that Action 52 black board is really nice lookin')

3 hours ago, The Count said:

Monster Truck Rally, I did not know this.

Yeah, pretty tough game actually. Also, fun fact: it's a port of a grail tier item for Intellvision (Stadium Mud Buggies)

4 hours ago, Reed Rothchild said:

Actually I see a ton on eBay.  Something wrong with the algorithm @ThePhleo ?

Yep, and I couldn't figure out why until I realized I included the word "Racing"

I'll adjust it after I post this.

11 hours ago, DefaultGen said:

I played every Channel F game not Astrocade, how could you confuse two game industry titans  The okayest one is Video Whizball! Everything else is a bad rip off of something else. It is astounding how much the Channel F lacks both creativity and fun.

Well excuuuuse me. And of course you of all people would say the video pinball game is the okayest one.

Maybe you should try a REAL gamers game console, like the RCA Studio II, Emerson Arcadia 2001, Interton VC4000...or if you're some sort of weeb you can try the Epoch Cassette Vision, or the Gakken Compact Vision TV Boy.

20 minutes ago, T-Pac said:

What - you think I can't make something completely ridiculous from this "psychedelic, regal looking square spaceship thingy"???

Ye of little faith...

(What game is this, by the way?)

[T-Pac]

It's Space Fortress for the Astrocade.

Believe it or not, that "crown" is actually a laser turret.

P.S. The death screen for this game is somehow really violent...skip to 4:42ish

On 10/4/2023 at 12:39 PM, G-type said:

I double checked the previous years to make sure it wasn't already suggested:

Evil Otto from Berserk

The fact evil otto hasn't been suggested yet tells me that we're horrible recommenders.

On 10/4/2023 at 9:09 AM, T-Pac said:

Sorry, dude - but I'm making everybody play by the rules this year.
Sprites only, 32x32 pixels or less.

You're an Astrocade guy, right? Maybe you can find me something good from there.

[T-Pac]

I trust @DefaultGen who played the entire Astrocade library, there really isnt anything good from there.

My heart just isn't in it if I can't make it complex....

But I'll suggest something that can flex your creative abilities!

I want to see if you can do something with this psychedelic, regal looking square spaceship thingy.

…..damn it how can I make this difficult. I have to keep the tradition alive!

…

Player 1 & 2 from Space War

You can cheat and look at other screenshots.

TECHNICALLY if vector screens still were popular and we made complex games with them today I could fit your sprite limit with an ultra complicated character, and still be 0x0px wide.

.....

Bonus points if you make Nerves (Abadox) & Final Form God Kefka (FF6) playing the machine :V ... Bau (Abadox) not needed, but he's probably at home crying for Nerves to come back...

On 9/26/2023 at 12:51 PM, fcgamer said:

Aladdin Deck Enhancer is an A++ rarity too, and how about Tengen's Tetris?

No, it's a R6 as of the past 90 Days. It might be a R5 during some 90 day windows, or a R7 through others....

It might have been an A++ (translated to R10) around 1999 in the New Jersey shore area though, since that's what Etler's list was, just a metric of games that went through his shop at the time.

ALSO: Congrats on the set @DarkKobold

I remember reading about this system in EGM and wanting one so bad, so you can legitimately say there's nostalgia in the west for it.

Here it is!

ThePhleo's 2023 SNES "Rarity Guide" (General Supply / Demand Guide)

^ Click Link ^

Overview:

Same as the NES Guide seen here, only SNES instead. Enjoy!

P.S. snes sux.

Hey @nick I thought about speaking to an actual Statistician about this to create an actual universal rarity scale that works for all systems, but I think that’s a step too far.

If you’re collecting NES, you already know where your “average” rarity is, and that baseline is different if you collect SNES, or N64, or Beanie Babies, or Cars.

Also, the numbers on the ultra high end are made up. A drought or glut of a couple copies can influence its positioning in the rarity scale by a wide margin, so I’d actually classify anything R8-R10 (and the super made up R11) to be pretty much the same rarity tier, with only the truly obvious ones like NWC, Myriad, and Stadium Events being actual bona fide R10’s.

IN SUMMARY: It’s good enough to use for something that can never actually be totally accurate anyway. 

1 hour ago, CT said:

How do I download the chart?

Also @ThePhleo , could you explain your methodology for this chart vs. your older rarity guide? I love your knowledge and work on this subject. Especially if you could explain the "glaring examples" like Bucky, for my friend .  I really appreciate it!

Glad you found the notes!

R5 on NintendoAge wasn't the "middle" point and it always bothered me that R6-7 was more of the middle line. I think the way it worked back then is they started from R10 and worked their way down (or opposite, R1 and worked their way up)

R5 should naturally be the middle point for "Uncommon" IMO, so that's where I started.

And again, R10 and R11 are "fake" because a R8/9 drought can cause it to be marked as a R10. R11 is just for those items that are more than "holy grails" they're ultra-special fringe cases that don't quite fit in anywhere.

UPDATE:

1. Added Unlicensed games to the mix
2. Normalized and standardized game titles. No more roman numerals, no more missing "The's".
3. "Fixed" the rarity scale and made it work. You might not like it, but it's unbiased, and completely formulaic. To see it in action, download the chart, Sort by price, then sort by rarity and then tell me you disagree with it.

Whoops, forgot to include the unlicensed data. Gotta pick up the kids from school, but I'll post it when I finish my daily errands.

4 minutes ago, Gloves said:

A number of us have been saying this for years - the NA "rarity guide" was essentially worthless due to its inaccuracy.

I'm just shocked that so many things that I thought were true staple collector's items are just not as rare as they should be.

Bucky O'Hare is a GLARING example of a game that does not deserve its high price. DuckTales 2 as well.

@a3quit4s You're right.

Data moved to Google Sheets.

Also, I changed the description a little.

The "rarity" I included in this data set is just the "R" ratings I gave everything in 2019, this is of course my own interpretation of rarity in 2019 which was based off of NintendoAge's rarity guide, which in turn was based off of Etler's rarity guide, which in turn was based only off of what he seen come into his store in New Jersey....in the '90s.

We've been using WRONG DATA FOR 25 YEARS. DELETE ALL THE RARITY GUIDES PLEASE

Edit: Also, if anyone tells you game collecting is expensive, they're liars and frauds. Just look at the loose cart prices of fan favorite classics like Ninja Gaiden, Mega Man, Mario, Zelda, Castlevania....they're freaking affordable. /r/GameCollecting needs to shut up.

Here it is!

ThePhleo's 2023 NES "Rarity Guide" (General Supply / Demand Guide)

^ Click Link ^

Overview:

So as it turns out, it's impossible to reconcile Collector Demand with True Scarcity. The two are just completely different metrics, and the rarity guides we've been using and remixing for the past 25 years are just completely wrong to begin with.

Etler's List, and subsequently NintendoAge's list, followed by even my own list are just flat out wrong and paint a narrative that made us want games like "Little Samson" and ignore games like "Magician"

Your concept of rarity is wrong, and it has nothing to do with collector's price or demand, and I've attached links with supporting data to prove it.

5 minutes ago, Mega Tank said:

 

Hey man, I know it has been a while, and thankfully there's currently only one banner, but are you for or against a Sage plushie? Don't forget to vote!

 

I want a sage plush, yes.

But also, I want an angry @Gloves plush too!

I liked it.

If I had to criticize it, I'd say either cut out the Porsche and show your shelf off more [or] Give people more insight to all your hobbies and not just your car, maybe make it like a dress-up montage by grabbing an outfit out the closet, show your shoes being tied up, take a shave...make it feel more like "Hey I collect games, and this is my morning routine" and less like "Hey I collect games, and this is my car"

Again, only if I HAD TO criticize the video.