ExplodedHamster | 404 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Most shocking thing to me is there are 30 Double Dragons, and HALF are round seal. That seems wrong tbh, but I guess you never know… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blarky | 42 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Foochie776 said: 1 soccer. Wow. It's a sticker sealed copy too. I only know because it was posted on instagram. There isn't a little "+" sign drop down to display the sub-category, so it's not obvious otherwise (I guess since it was the only graded copy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptOut | 8,883 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Currently there are ZERO copies of NES cleaning kit graded at 9.8, whoever is first to market with one of THOSE bad boys is gonna make a KILLING! Also, wow, what's up with Friday the 13th? 105 copies graded, like 20 9.8's? Popular game, eh? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamW | 713 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 24 minutes ago, jonebone said: I have a VGA 95 and sold one to @Braveheart69 years back. Also I wonder when this pop report was pulled, it's not live. I see at least one title on ebay right now that doesn't exist according to this pop. It's dated November 1st, says at top right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth | 166 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 (edited) The one thing absolutely nobody can take from this is the idea that the top games are rare relative to demand in this market. If WATA is reporting 237 sealed SMB3s in just 36 months of grading, (1) add in all the sealed and graded SMB3s from VGA's 13 years of grading—one has to think 237 is now the absolute, rock-bottom floor for that figure—and (2) project forward ten years (which is what you have to do given that folks are stupidly buying SMB3s as investments they plan to sell a decade on) and you've easily got 1,000+ SMB3s out there when folks are looking to sell their "investments." Dave Robbins likes to say that that supply will be wildly outstripped by demand, but he's wrong: buying sealed and graded games is a hobby that's been around for almost 15 years, and it still has a consumer base only in the hundreds. There are (and will be) way, way, way more SMB3s on the market than the market can support. There is no longer a strong market case for SMB3 being an investment. OTOH, while Dave Robbins was on eBay trying to sell one of the worst games on the NES—Renegade (14 copies from one grading house in just 36 months)—for $22,000, some of us were buying the top-graded sealed copies of better-reviewed (and far more beloved) NES games for between $200 and $400. And since most future collectors in this highly niche market will be those who love the NES and its best games, not randos who have only heard of SMB3, those $200 to $400 games will be the ones worth something. Some of us were saying this publicly all along. We didn't hide the ball on anything. We told the Jackals they were wrong about everything, and they were wrong about everything. Investors could have been getting better investments for three figures than they got for five figures, but they were listening to high-end resellers—not those who'd done the hard data research on title rarity for the NES. Edited November 30, 2021 by RETRO 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamW | 713 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just a couple of things to note... 1. Looks like the data we grabbed from that generous API endpoint a few months back was quite substantially overcounted for most games. I guess when they changed their minds about how to describe variants, they didn't clean the DB up very well. So we can't trust the numbers from that data, by the looks of things. 2. Doesn't look like there's a single sealed 10 for NES yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptOut | 8,883 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 I'm surprised there are TWO NWC carts graded at 9.0, that's nuts that there are two out there in such good condition! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptOut | 8,883 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 (edited) Am I reading this correctly? Out of 237 graded sealed Mario 3's only SIXTEEN are "left bros"??? Actually that's pretty rare, thinking about it! Edited November 30, 2021 by OptOut 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth | 166 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, OptOut said: Out of 237 graded sealed Mario 3's only SIXTEEN are "left bros"??? I know you're being sarcastic, and rightly so, but we have to stop saying, "There are only..." This is 36 months of WATA data. VGA will be releasing a pop report from 13 years—10 of which they operated during without competition—meaning that their volume per annum for each title should be higher than WATA operating with competition across the three years since 2018. If WATA graded 16 "left bro" SMB3s in 36 months, we can expect there to be about 64 from VGA and 80 total—at a minimum. The numbers could in fact be 100+ and 116+. So we might expect, in a decade, for there to be 150 to 250 sealed and graded "left bro" SMB3 variants. You know how many people in the world have demonstrated that they care about this variant in the 15 years they've now had to express that care? Way under 100. Edited November 30, 2021 by RETRO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIB_Wholesale | 418 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, RETRO said: I know you're being sarcastic, and rightly so, but we have to stop saying, "There are only..." This is 36 months of WATA data. VGA will be releasing a pop report from 13 years—10 of which they operated during without competition, meaning that their volume per annum for each title should be higher than WATA operating with competition since 2018. If WATA graded 16 "left bro" SMB3s in 36 months, we can expect there to be about 64 from VGA and 80 total at a minimum. The numbers could in fact be 100+ and 116+. So we might expect, in a decade, for there to be 150 to 250 sealed and graded "left bro" SMB3 variants. You know how many people in the world have demonstrated that they care about that variant in the 15 years they had to express that care? Way under 100. arent a lot of wata grades going to be crossovers from vga? so not really a good way to determine totals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIB_Wholesale | 418 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 39 minutes ago, blarky said: It's a sticker sealed copy too. I only know because it was posted on instagram. There isn't a little "+" sign drop down to display the sub-category, so it's not obvious otherwise (I guess since it was the only graded copy) what's the grade? it's not the only graded copy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth | 166 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, CIBWholesale said: arent a lot of wata grades going to be crossovers from vga? so not really a good way to determine totals Nope. Another Jackal myth. There is no reason to cross over VGA grades to WATA grades—except in the view of a small group of high-end resellers who make up a tiny part of the market since 2013—so a very, very small number of WATA grades are crossovers. But hey, folks should keep on believing those who were wrong the first time and disbelieving those who were right the first time if they like. I can't convince anyone who pathologically won't come in from the rain to do so, and I know that. (Not speaking of you, CIBWholesale, just speaking generally—and with much sarcasm!) Edited November 30, 2021 by RETRO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WalterWhiteJr. | 1,162 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, CIBWholesale said: arent a lot of wata grades going to be crossovers from vga? so not really a good way to determine totals Maybe? A lot of people prefer VGA. myself included. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIB_Wholesale | 418 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said: Maybe? A lot of people prefer VGA. myself included. i'm just excited everyone finds out about 1985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptOut | 8,883 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, RETRO said: I know you're being sarcastic, and rightly so, but we have to stop saying, "There are only..." I'm not ALWAYS being sarcastic, you know... Actually I'm serious, I think it was commonly believed that the ratio of "Left bros" to "Right bros" Mario 3's was 1 in 10... This looks closer to 1 in 15 or even 1 in 20. That's rarer, relatively speaking, than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth | 166 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 It's started. The owner of an 8.0/A+ Racket Attack has bumped his price from $548 to $750 on Mercari—the first price bump ever for this item (which had been repeatedly dropped in price from $2,000 to $548 over the last two months). And the owner of the only Wizardry WATA has ever graded has just bumped his price from $1,000 to $1,500. (Did I mention I track these things pretty damn closely?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mijael | 347 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 No Faria anyone else has a sealed game that isn't in the list? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blarky | 42 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, CIBWholesale said: what's the grade? it's not the only graded copy It's the same one in the wata list, 7.0. Seal grade was 'A' Ah, so it's not a crossover from yours then, so yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OptOut | 8,883 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Mijael said: No Faria anyone else has a sealed game that isn't in the list? Yeah, TONS! But only because they aren't listing XBOX games yet! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth | 166 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Mijael said: No Faria anyone else has a sealed game that isn't in the list? A few. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulag Joe | 582 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 28 minutes ago, RETRO said: Nope. Another Jackal myth. There is no reason to cross over VGA grades to WATA grades—except in the view of a small group of high-end resellers who make up a tiny part of the market since 2013—so a very, very small number of WATA grades are crossovers. But hey, folks should keep on believing those who were wrong the first time and disbelieving those who were right the first time if they like. I can't convince anyone who pathologically won't come in from the rain to do so, and I know that. (Not speaking of you, CIBWholesale, just speaking generally—and with much sarcasm!) I sent all my vga games to wata and I'm not the only one, so it's not a myth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth | 166 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said: I sent all my vga games to wata and I'm not the only one, so it's not a myth. Whoa whoa whoa—I didn't say cross-overs were a myth. That'd be insane. I said that cross-overs are only a tiny fraction of VGA grades by total number, meaning that we can't say (as the OP did) that most VGA grades—once their pop reports come out—were already reflected in WATA data. That is the myth I was referring to. Don't get it twisted, man. Edited November 30, 2021 by RETRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tidaldreams | 654 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, RETRO said: It's started. The owner of an 8.0/A+ Racket Attack has bumped his price from $548 to $750 on Mercari—the first price bump ever for this item (which had been repeatedly dropped in price from $2,000 to $548 over the last two months). And the owner of the only Wizardry WATA has ever graded has just bumped his price from $1,000 to $1,500. (Did I mention I track these things pretty damn closely?) Lol, people sell graded games on mercari? I thought that's were you go to find scammers and fake pokemans 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulag Joe | 582 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, RETRO said: Whoa whoa whoa—I didn't say cross-overs were a myth. That'd be insane. I said that cross-overs are only a tiny fraction of VGA grades by total number, meaning that we can't say (as the OP did) that most VGA grades—once their pop reports come out—were already reflected in WATA data. That is the myth I was referring to. Don't get it twisted, man. Nothing is twisted. Your myth cannot be supported. Edited November 30, 2021 by Gulag Joe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth | 166 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, tidaldreams said: Lol, people sell graded games on mercari? I thought that's were you go to find scammers and fake pokemans Yes, it's one of the 25 markets I track at RETRO. I don't buy sealed games from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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