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Wata NES pop report now available


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53 minutes ago, OptOut said:

Am I reading this correctly?

Screenshot_2021-11-30-10-49-00-43_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.thumb.jpg.f638cee904705dbc2e1c7c7fb27f7143.jpg

Out of 237 graded sealed Mario 3's only SIXTEEN are "left bros"???

Actually that's pretty rare, thinking about it!

That’s crazy, Pat the NES Punk saw one on his shelf and told the world there were hundreds, if not thousands, sealed. I am absolutely floored he could be so wrong. The science was basically flawless!

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Just now, Mijael said:

There are less graded sealed games than i thought , i mean for example if you compare this to a comic book pop report the sealed games are a rarity 

A lot of people might quickly come to that conclusion, but that's not actually true.

WATA has only been around for two years, whereas most comic book graders have been around WAY longer. Also, grading is only a TINY niche of video game collecting, whereas in comic books and other hobbies a much greater proportion of collectors are into collecting graded items.

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46 minutes ago, RETRO said:

I know you're being sarcastic, and rightly so, but we have to stop saying, "There are only..."

This is 36 months of WATA data. VGA will be releasing a pop report from 13 years—10 of which they operated during without competition—meaning that their volume per annum for each title should be higher than WATA operating with competition across the three years since 2018.

If WATA graded 16 "left bro" SMB3s in 36 months, we can expect there to be about 64 from VGA and 80 total—at a minimum. The numbers could in fact be 100+ and 116+. So we might expect, in a decade, for there to be 150 to 250 sealed and graded "left bro" SMB3 variants.

You know how many people in the world have demonstrated that they care about this variant in the 15 years they've now had to express that care? Way under 100.

If and when the VGA pop reports are released, don't get your hopes up for accurate variant information.

In the early days, the labels really only chronicled "white" seals (ie. oval seal), vs "black/silver/gold" (for the older circular seals).  They then later added "cardboard hangtab" as an extra variant for some of the black box games.  There  are a few other bits of variant info they added in later years ("non revA" for example).  The labels are also notorious for having incorrect info (incorrectly labeling black seal as a white seal for example).   I'm honestly not sure if they even differentiated between left and right bros for SMB3.

Don't get me wrong, the data will be extremely valuable still.  It's just that you'll need to understand some of it was "early / wild west days", so you'll have to live with somewhat rocky variant info.

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7 minutes ago, Mijael said:

There are less graded sealed games than i thought , i mean for example if you compare this to a comic book pop report the sealed games are a rarity 

There are like 12,000 graded Hulk 181s and 7500 GRADED WATA NES games lol.

325 PSA 10 Jordans and 250 sealed WATA Mario 3s. 

Could go on forever. People who have tracked this stuff closely have known this for a long time.

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8 minutes ago, ExplodedHamster said:

There are like 12,000 graded Hulk 181s and 7500 GRADED WATA NES games lol.

325 PSA 10 Jordans and 250 sealed WATA Mario 3s. 

Could go on forever. People who have tracked this stuff closely have known this for a long time.

Here's the problem: 

1. Gaming is the largest entertainment industry in the world.

2. That has absolutely nothing to do with the popularity of collecting sealed and graded games—a wildly niche hobby that has remained niche for 15 years now and is going to remain niche.

I can't believe folks still mistake the former fact for the latter. The most-graded WATA games are not rare relative to demand, which is nothing like the demand for comics. Is 500+ sealed-and-graded SMB3s (among both WATA and VGA) a lot? You bet your ass it is. It's a ton—relative to demand.

Why is this so hard to understand, when we all watch the HA auctions weekly, which—almost all of them—have only 5-10 bidders?

ON EDIT: And for the fortieth time, 36 months of WATA grades are not the whole of what's out there! VGA has been grading for 13 years. Take any pop # you see from WATA and at least double it.

Edited by RETRO
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4 minutes ago, ExplodedHamster said:

There are like 12,000 graded Hulk 181s and 7500 GRADED WATA NES games lol.

325 PSA 10 Jordans and 250 sealed WATA Mario 3s. 

Could go on forever. People who have tracked this stuff closely have known this for a long time.

Yeah, but why is it fair to compare a population report from a grading company that has been around for two years with one that has been around for decades?

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Administrator · Posted

I'm still pissed at myself for not buying that misprint Metal Gear Solid. I should have just tossed all my money at it honestly, I seriously regret not buying that. It always seems that I come into the right amount of money to buy something I want mere months after that something becomes entirely unavailable.

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2 minutes ago, Gloves said:

I'm still pissed at myself for not buying that misprint Metal Gear Solid. I should have just tossed all my money at it honestly, I seriously regret not buying that. It always seems that I come into the right amount of money to buy something I want mere months after that something becomes entirely unavailable.

All of @Gloves money RN:

black and white fly GIF by RocketJump

😄

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37 minutes ago, Mijael said:

There are less graded sealed games than i thought , i mean for example if you compare this to a comic book pop report the sealed games are a rarity 

 

is it comparable bc the carts are pretty common but we will see a lot less mint condition

maybe the mints of each category are comparable between the hobbies

Edited by CIBWholesale
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2 hours ago, ExplodedHamster said:

Under 20 Double Dribble! 19 lol.

Of course I just bought a raw one, so enjoy it while you can!

Very nice pickup! The first truly great basketball game on any system and a Konami release! It sold well at the inaugural Goldin Auctions and with more sports card collectors entering the hobby, I can see this title being even more desired (low Pop Count) in the very near future.

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25 minutes ago, RETRO said:

a wildly niche hobby that has remained niche for 15 years now and is going to remain niche.

No it won't. There are 5 active video game grading companies in existence right now with even more to come and all of them are backlogged. The hobby is exploding and will continue to grow.

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2 minutes ago, CIBWholesale said:

 

is it comparable bc the carts are pretty common but we will see a lot less mint condition

maybe the mints of each category are comparable between the hobbies

What proportion of comic book collectors collect graded comic books? What proportion of video game collectors collect graded games?

You need to know the answer to both of those questions in order to be able to relate the scarcity to the demand in each of these different hobbies. We already KNOW that the proportion of video game collectors interested in graded/sealed games is like 1% of the hobby. The supply is low, but so is demand.

What are the numbers for comic books or trading cards? I'm wiling to bet the proportion of collectors in those hobbies interested in graded items is MUCH higher than videogames.

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32 minutes ago, Gloves said:

I'm still pissed at myself for not buying that misprint Metal Gear Solid. I should have just tossed all my money at it honestly, I seriously regret not buying that. It always seems that I come into the right amount of money to buy something I want mere months after that something becomes entirely unavailable.

I think this is how a lot of people feel these days…

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