660K Mario - what is going on?

[OptOut | 8,883]

7 minutes ago, GPX said:

No there is a genuine demand for sealed graded games. Just like there is a genuine demand for CIB or loose collecting. I can proudly state this as fact, as I'm both a CIB/sealed collector, where I'm proud of either collections I have. Some of which might be for investment potential, but lots of them were purchased purely for displaying and collecting fun. The ones who are paying up all the absurd prices are in a different league though. And these might be the ones with zero care factor, which is what you're implying.

Yeah I was talking mainly about the new breed, you and the rare few like you and @SealedWholesale have been in this game since WAY before it was cool, lol!

But yeah I'm talking about the new interest that has crowded out the market and pushed prices to insanity. There is NO WAY that is organic demand, not a fucking chance in hell!

Edited April 4, 2021 by OptOut

[OptOut | 8,883]

2 minutes ago, SealedWholesale said:

the supply side is very low for sealed games like some in the single digits.  sealed collectors are competing with all the collectors who want their favourite game in the best condtion and the way kids ripped into the nes games and lined up around the block. so over time there will only be more fans of mario  and more damaged copies of sealed nes games.

 

it's the dupe collectors that are really weird because they dont just want 2 copies they want all of them and i would just like the best condition cart and save money just me i guess

Yeah, but then there are also a lot of collectors and gamers like me who don't really care much about condition, we want to own the games and play them, but we're not thinking about value, and generally if it works and looks good enough, boom it goes in the collection.

Sealed is a who different ball game, IMO, it isn't an inevitable progression for the majority of collectors.

[CIB_Wholesale | 418]

21 minutes ago, OptOut said:

Yeah, but then there are also a lot of collectors and gamers like me who don't really care much about condition, we want to own the games and play them, but we're not thinking about value, and generally if it works and looks good enough, boom it goes in the collection.

Sealed is a who different ball game, IMO, it isn't an inevitable progression for the majority of collectors.

ya none of it is really that rare so don't put it on a credit card for speculation. hopefully the buyers really wanted that item it must have been their favorite thing of all time to spend that kind of money

[OptOut | 8,883]

4 minutes ago, SealedWholesale said:

ya none of it is really that rare so don't put it on a credit card for speculation. hopefully the buyers really wanted that item it must have been their favorite thing of all time to spend that kind of money

Oh yeah, I'm sure the group of investors who pooled their money to share ownership of that "investment vehicle" are all SUPER big gamers!

Probably at least a couple of em can probably speed run it, and probably most the rest of em no death run the game on the regular, lololol! 

[CIB_Wholesale | 418]

6 minutes ago, OptOut said:

Oh yeah, I'm sure the group of investors who pooled their money to share ownership of that "investment vehicle" are all SUPER big gamers!

Probably at least a couple of em can probably speed run it, and probably most the rest of em no death run the game on the regular, lololol! 

660k is so much money

[OptOut | 8,883]

3 minutes ago, SealedWholesale said:

660k is so much money

That's why I believe it was almost certainly bought by a group of investors. There's nobody likes Mario THAT fucking much, lol!

And that's coming from me!!! I fricking LOVE Mario 1! I'd pay probably like 20 quid for one if I didn't already own like ten copies or whatever on my various systems!

[GPX | 1,369]

16 minutes ago, OptOut said:

Oh yeah, I'm sure the group of investors who pooled their money to share ownership of that "investment vehicle" are all SUPER big gamers!

Probably at least a couple of em can probably speed run it, and probably most the rest of em no death run the game on the regular, lololol! 

I’d already be impressed if they can get through 1st level of Mario..

[OptOut | 8,883]

3 minutes ago, GPX said:

I’d already be impressed if they can get through 1st level of Mario..

Watch out for that first Goomba, he's a tricky little bitch that one! 

[DefaultGen | 5,401]

$26k for Pokemon Stadium 2 or $90k for Pokemon Crystal is still dumber. 5 figure comics are all either the rarest or most desirable issues out there. 5 figure Pokemon games are fuckin’ B-listers. At least SMB is SMB.

[YOURTURN | 1,256]

1 hour ago, GPX said:

This is another big point against the current sales trends on HA. If people are fair dinkum after the best of the best condition and rarity, then why just choose to only buy in WATA form and sold only through HA. Wouldn't any sensible collector expand on their field of buying to increase their chances of obtaining such rare items? Even a sensible investor might think this too?

Throwing some love for that point!

In all cases this is another reason why I invest my time looking for the next Japanese release that'll fit into my collecting goals. I spend more time than money hoping what I do get is a perfect personal investment, and doing so has me get a few rare games at rational/sane prices. Plus by not using VGA or Wata this year, I have become the very first VGA member to have a third video game grading company grade two of my games!

You know... Stuff that nobody cares about because they do not use reality TV to hype themselves up, and so on. 

[Amermoe | 150]

2 hours ago, SealedWholesale said:

I've been trying to sell zelda 90 and pokemon red 90 for 2 years. From my opinion it looks like the only way to get 10x valuation on your items it to have it sent in for grading with WATA and consigned to Heritage. Collectors dont like VGA --- that's worth a lot less

But see, there in lies the point. Collectors who genuinely collect prefer VGA over WATA, mainly because of condition. Collectors understand that for comparable copies, VGA is the much better condition and is the higher quality and value. Hertiage buyers don't understand, don't know or don't care about any of that. Ebay has long been the true organic market for these games. There is a long history of sealed games rising in price slow and steady over the years through ebay, which is a sign of a healthy market.

What's alarming is not the fact that a mario sold for $660k, it's how fast it got there. When an item shoots in price 20x over a span of 6 months, it's not something you celebrate. It should make you extremely cautious.

The deep pocket buyers on Hertiage couldn't care less if there are better deals available on ebay. They only deal with auction houses they trust, and recognize, which in this case is Heritage. The real shame really lies on Heritage for not accepting VGA, imo that is the true manipulation going on at the moment.

But if you're serious about selling those 2 games for maximum dollar, then you have to play by their rules - cross it to WATA and consign it to Heritage. Normal people go to ebay, and most go there to get a deal, so don't expect to set a record auction price off average income buyers. Most of them are well informed, and know better.

Edited April 4, 2021 by Amermoe

[AdamW | 713]

@Amermoe
would that be the VGA that graded three fake Pokémon DS games and sat there and did nothing while they sold for thousands of dollars on eBay, after I emailed them to alert them to it? Cos yeah, they seem like a much more trustworthy operation...

 

[Code Monkey | 2,006]

12 hours ago, GPX said:

Regarding your examples in the Action Comics 1 and the Ferrari 250 GT, they are different scenarios. For starters, I can imagine there is a genuine market of high demand for the rare comics/cars. But this demand and market was likely to have built over several decades, where most collectors in those fields would be in general agreement of the rarities and accepable price increases. With the current video games scene, there is no unison in agreement about these end prices, and a lot of the high end collectors are jumping out rather than jumping in.

Nope. Quoted from the Heritage Auctions thread:

  

On 4/3/2021 at 12:25 AM, AdamW said:

Are they, though? Action Comics #1 sold for $317k in 2009. Then $1m in 2010. Then $3.2m in 2014. That's a 10x price increase in five years, over 70 years after it was printed. Did "veteran collectors" think it was worth $320k in 2009 and then, en masse, agree it was worth 3x as much three years later and 3x as much again another four years later?

The Ferrari did the same thing, just a couple of years between sales.

[Amermoe | 150]

4 minutes ago, AdamW said:

would that be the VGA that graded three fake Pokémon DS games and sat there and did nothing while they sold for thousands of dollars on eBay, after I emailed them to alert them to it? Cos yeah, they seem like a much more trustworthy operation...

If you want to talk about VGA mistakes, there's plenty of other examples I can point to in the past 10 years. That's hardly the worst offender, there's a long history of VGA failures and mistakes and all the old collectors will remember them. But likewise I can point to plenty of mistakes on the side of WATA as well. None of this detracts from either, or the fact that a lower grade VGA crosses to a much higher score WATA. I don't think there is anyone, including WATA, who will dispute that, because it is inherent to their scoring system.

I have WATA games, and I have VGA games. If I am given the opportunity to choose between a VGA 85, or a WATA 9.2/A, I will chose VGA. In the same instance if the choice was between a 9.6/A+, then I would chose WATA. You buy the game not the grade, and frankly most buyers on Heritage can't tell the difference. 

[AdamW | 713]

Well, sure but then where is the "manipulation" in HA only dealing with WATA? They certainly have a cosy little tie-up going on and they're being smart and somewhat cynical about it, but I dunno if there is really any manipulation going on. Yeah, WATA's grades are "inflated" compared to VGA's, but that's more just smart marketing, really, isn't it? It's not like anyone claims a WATA 8.5 equals a VGA 85. They're actually both pretty clear and up front about how their scales work, and they're both viable scales, and AFAIK noone is alleging that WATA (or VGA for that matter) are outright not sticking to their stated grading schemes. You don't have any trouble drawing a comparison, as you just did. So...I guess I'm just not seeing where the manipulation is. I'd hope anyone considering dropping a half million dollars on a game would be smart enough to have a lackey spend an afternoon figuring out what the grading numbers mean and how much they buy of HA/WATA's spiel about the rarity/significance of it, if they don't already know...

Edited April 4, 2021 by AdamW
thinko

[Amermoe | 150]

1 hour ago, AdamW said:

Well, sure but then where is the "manipulation" in HA only dealing with WATA?

Imagine if Heritage decided one day that they would no longer deal with PSA graded cards, from now on they will only deal with SGC, the hot new emerging card grading company. And suppose they say, well, you have only 2 choices to market your items on our platform, (1) you can convert it to SGC, or (2) you can send it us raw and we'll still market it ungraded. Imagine then how the PSA market would react. Granted, this is not the best example, because the PSA market doesn't need Heritage to set prices, but for a fairly new/emerging market it certainly skews perception one way over the other.

Clearly, Heritage and WATA have some kind of exclusive agreement in place, and clearly Heritage has purposefully decided to stifle their competition. Every other major auction house, including eBay, acknowledges and accepts VGA as an established grader in that market, let alone one that held and still holds at least 50% of that market share, even if that share is dwindling. Ups and downs aside, consumer confidence in VGA was established long ago. The market has not chosen WATA over VGA, but rather has accepted WATA as a viable alternative to VGA. Ideally, you would put both products side by side and let the consumer chose which one they prefer. At the very least it's unethical behavior, and is a large reason why there is a large disparity between WATA sales vs VGA sales for the same items.

With few exceptions, I have little confidence that Heritage buyers do their research before making purchasing decisions. Every indication points to impulsive buying and spending, price adjustment and re-adjustment, high swings, then low swings, creating complete chaos and volatility in the market. They can't seem to correctly price anything, because none of the past sales for comparable items are being considered, and the availability and population of these items is not clear to them. I do think once this 'trial' period ends, and Heritage/WATA establishes some price history, prices will eventually stabilize. At least for older collectors, they can rely on memory for population counts and condition rarity, and make more informed decisions.

Edited April 4, 2021 by Amermoe

[YOURTURN | 1,256]

2 hours ago, Amermoe said:

If you want to talk about VGA mistakes, there's plenty of other examples I can point to in the past 10 years. That's hardly the worst offender, there's a long history of VGA failures and mistakes and all the old collectors will remember them. But likewise I can point to plenty of mistakes on the side of WATA as well. None of this detracts from either, or the fact that a lower grade VGA crosses to a much higher score WATA. I don't think there is anyone, including WATA, who will dispute that, because it is inherent to their scoring system.

And those examples are why I say CGA, Inc. as a whole are great at grading and creating cases. The rest still has me recommend them, but only if they are sure their product is 100% authentic and want their labels on top. Otherwise I would parrot my recommendation that they give CAS a shot. Because they offer a VGA-like scoring system, with a second score explaining why it might be an 85+ instead of being a 90. As opposed to calling it Mint, etc.

As for Wata... I was first turned off by the fact NA suddenly favored them over VGA. But I got over that and was planning to try them out before I read @Code Monkey's overall review. In all cases, what you and others have said is why I chose to give CAS a shot with two of my games. (Then again, I also tried to like UKG. So... Yeah...)

[Amermoe | 150]

4 minutes ago, FenrirZero said:

As for Wata... I was first turned off by the fact NA suddenly favored them over VGA. But I got over that and was planning to try them out before I read @Code Monkey's overall review. In all cases, what you and others have said is why I chose to give CAS a shot with two of my games. (Then again, I also tried to like UKG. So... Yeah...)

I hope no one misunderstands my greater point. I like WATA, and I like VGA. Do they both have flaws? sure, ideally I would want to combine the best of what both have to offer. I just would prefer to see both treated fairly in the open market.

[GPX | 1,369]

23 minutes ago, Amermoe said:

I hope no one misunderstands my greater point. I like WATA, and I like VGA. Do they both have flaws? sure, ideally I would want to combine the best of what both have to offer. I just would prefer to see both treated fairly in the open market.

I would like to point out my envy towards your use of the English language and the eloquence. But back on topic, if someone is fair dinkum about sealed games or graded games, I would hope they pick the game and not the companies behind the grading. 

I bought a UKG N64 game, my one and only, because it got a high grade and would be rare for me to find another one in better condition. I will not hesitate to buy from WATA or any other grading companies if I feel the game is legit and in the best condition anywhere around the world. But obviously depending on whether the price is right.

Grading companies shouldn’t be seen as religion. It’s ok to double or triple dip into other companies when applicable. Unfortunately, the current market is enforcing the newcomers to think “WATA is the gold standard and everything else is below standard”. Are veteran collectors unanimously saying this? I don’t think so.

[GPX | 1,369]

3 hours ago, Code Monkey said:

Nope. Quoted from the Heritage Auctions thread:

  

The Ferrari did the same thing, just a couple of years between sales.

I don’t claim to know any of the other markets very well eg. Ferrari or comics.

However, the key point to consider is that they’ve been in the market for many decades. This is crucial to know of the true scale of rarity and availability of any supposed rare items. With video games, the market is still young in relative terms, and there is a strong potential for a lot more sealed games to pop up from sources such as:

- collectors holding onto factory boxes of sealed games

- undiscovered warehouse of old retail gaming stock

- game shop owner closing down but still keeping the rare gems as part of a collection/investment

So back on topic, if more sealed games pop up from time to time, this will impact on the rarity and price may likely to drop rather than increase. Something to consider if anyone is planning to chuck in a million dollar bid anytime soon.

 

[Code Monkey | 2,006]

33 minutes ago, GPX said:

I don’t claim to know any of the other markets very well eg. Ferrari or comics.

However, the key point to consider is that they’ve been in the market for many decades. This is crucial to know of the true scale of rarity and availability of any supposed rare items. With video games, the market is still young in relative terms, and there is a strong potential for a lot more sealed games to pop up from sources such as:

- collectors holding onto factory boxes of sealed games

- undiscovered warehouse of old retail gaming stock

- game shop owner closing down but still keeping the rare gems as part of a collection/investment

So back on topic, if more sealed games pop up from time to time, this will impact on the rarity and price may likely to drop rather than increase. Something to consider if anyone is planning to chuck in a million dollar bid anytime soon.

 

Action Comics were literally handing stacks of these to the guy delivering pizza. A few more popping up won't have any impact on the price unless the supply outgrows the demand and that will never happen. If 1000 people want something and only 10 exist, then 100 more show up, the price will not drop. There are still 890 people fighting over them.

[YOURTURN | 1,256]

5 minutes ago, Amermoe said:

I hope no one misunderstands my greater point. I like WATA, and I like VGA. Do they both have flaws? sure, ideally I would want to combine the best of what both have to offer. I just would prefer to see both treated fairly in the open market.

In all cases I 100% relate to that, with reasons tied to my not-so-fortunate examples. Which is why I also chose to join both NA and VGS as a supporter of those who collect stuff they graded. I mean... Show me a collector who bought a VGA or Wata graded game, or even used either one to have their graded, and you have a reason why I support the right to use their services.

But when it comes to grading imports, I went with CAS because I want to have one version of every Dragon Quest, Phantasy Star, Pokémon, etc. title that defines what I want when it comes to playing these games. Which includes first print variants, as well as Japan exclusives, which VGA will not note as such. Something I never got to say much about in a different topic.

But besides that, as long as the same hype VGA originally used to promote their brand is used... HA is pretty much going to have an excuse to snub VGA, UKG, CAS, and any potentially short lived game grading companies out there. Which, for me, has them being the "MetalJesusRocks" of all auction houses. 

[AdamW | 713]

Oh sure, I was wondering what to do with this million dollars I found down the back of the couch just now...

Of course that's a possibility, and I agree people paying crazy money right now are taking a risk on it. But then, that's investing/speculation: it's risk/reward. If it turns out there *aren't* any other 9.6 early shrinkwrapped SMBs out there, chances are high that in ten years whoever bought this will turn out to have got an amazing deal. If it turns out someone was sitting on an untouched crate of mint copies, not so much. That's the bet they're making, essentially. It's a risk, but it's not necessarily - depending on their assets and risk tolerance - a crazy one.

[AdamW | 713]

@Amermoe
Re HA and WATA - I mean, I guess to me the thing is, HA isn't the whole of the market, is it? Anyone else can set up in competition to them, and sell games graded by whoever they like, or noone at all. It seems like HA has just done a very smart job of positioning themselves and hyping things and playing the PR game, to the point where they've built up a reputation and a buyer pool. It doesn't appear to be very strongly linked to longstanding enthusiast game collecting communities, but, hey, there's no rule saying it has to be. They saw a gap in a market and filled it. That's free market economics for ya.

If, say, eBay said they'd only list WATA games, I might have a slightly different opinion, simply because of the sheer size of eBay. But HA is hardly at that level, is it? I mean, Sotheby's could start selling games tomorrow and eat a chunk of their lunch. They're certainly not so powerful that noone could possibly compete against them.

I'm honestly having trouble seeing from what angle you can say they have some kinda ethical obligation to sell stuff graded by VGA, or really that they must sell anything at all. They're a business in a free market system, they're nowhere near having monopoly power, so they have the right to choose to sell or not sell really whatever the heck they like. No one is obliged to buy from them, after all.

[Amermoe | 150]

32 minutes ago, AdamW said:

I'm honestly having trouble seeing from what angle you can say they have some kinda ethical obligation to sell stuff graded by VGA, or really that they must sell anything at all. They're a business in a free market system, they're nowhere near having monopoly power, so they have the right to choose to sell or not sell really whatever the heck they like. No one is obliged to buy from them, after all.

Sometimes you have to ask the right questions to get the answers you're looking for. Are they in the business of just making profit, or are they trying to alter/force a specific outcome, and if the latter why? 

But you're right, the market will eventually come around, it's just going to take a while with all of the Heritage frenzy. A video game is still a video game regardless if it's encased in X, Y, or Z. If the market sustains itself in the coming future, my hope is that for those that still remain can see that.