VGA NES Black box / Silver box population reports over the years [2013, 2016, 2019]

[blarky | 42]

I'm not sure how useful this information is today, but in the spirit of sharing, here is some population report data from VGA I collected in 3 separate eras (2013, 2016, and 2019).

Basically, I sought to track the VGA population reports for all 30 NES Black Box games, plus two of the silver boxes (Kid Icarus and Metroid... apologies to rad Rad Racer!).  

Click here:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1opkt0rSqaabC-fLPv5ScDDu7ryJpwKgiZlf9vCnhxP4/edit#gid=1892999251

Click on the tabs at the bottom of this spreadsheet [2013], [2016], and [2019] to see the snapshots for those years.  Obviously, you'd want the 2019 for the latest, but it's kinda neat to see the changes over the earlier periods.  You might want to set the zoom to 75%.

For those unaware, in the past VGA allowed you to request 3 game population reports per day via email (business days only).  However, each variation counted as a separate game.  i.e. SMB Cardboard hangtab was a variant, white seal was a variant, etc.  And even sometimes the year of release mattered too.  For example, white seal SMB had separate 1988 and a 1989 years, which is why that one seems to be broken up as 2 sets of data.  In fact, looking at this now, I don't appear to have gotten the 1989 SMB white seal data for 2013, only 1988 data.  It's all part of how they had it stored in their database, which I admit I don't really understand.  Putting all that together it meant that a single black box game pop report could burn all 3 of your requests per day, and that might not be even enough to cover a single title!  This process took a while, and I thank VGA for putting up with me during these times lol.  They were pretty responsive most of the time, but sometimes my email got lost in the mix and I didn't get a response for a while, so I had to re-send the request.  Over the course of a few months, I could slowly fill out the complete table.  

The years for 2013 and 2016 are generally complete, but unfortunately, I was only able to finish roughly half of the 2019 data.  Late that year, I started getting the response from VGA that their database was being updated, and that retrieving population reports would not be possible anymore.  As many others have noted, this continues to be their response to this very day.  So this is where the project sort of ended.  If pigs fly and VGA ever gets to finishing their new website, perhaps this and all their other population reports all be available for anyone to see.... but I'm not holding my breath!  

VGA's terminology for the 4 "major" variants of the black boxes:
- Cardboard Hangtab/Hinge sticker      --> these are the sticker sealed games with cardboard hangtab
- Cardboard Hangtab                             --> start of the shrinkwrapped era games, also with cardboard hangtab
- Black/Silver Nintendo Seal                  --> non-cardboard hangtab games, but still have the circular seal of quality
- White Nintendo Seal                            --> oval / white seal of quality

Note: don't ask me why but sometimes VGA called it "Black" Nintendo seal, and sometimes it was "Silver" Nintendo seal.  Key point though is that it's the older / circular seal of quality.  (Kid Icarus and Metroid are "Gold" Nintendo Seal instead of either "Black" or "Silver")

 

Caveat emptors/disclaimers/notes/etc:

- Data is for entertainment purposes only.  I do not guarantee the accuracy of it.  

- This was a manual process, there could be mistakes in the tables, either by myself inputting them wrong, or just getting bad data to begin with.  I actually remember getting one pop report that suddenly had fewer results in the later years than in the earlier one, which didn't make sense.  I pointed it out and then they realized it was their mistake and provided me with the correct data.

- Obviously even the latest data here is rather old by this point.  And some of these games have been crossed over to wata (there have been many public posts of black/silver box wata crossovers).  But the main ideas here were to get a general sense of what was graded over the years, and also to point out how few certain titles had been graded over time since VGA started.  Some variants even as of the last reports still had no graded examples of.  Also, a well known collector has at least one sealed six pack case of each of these games, but it's unknown what variant(s) they are.  While most of those would be pristine examples, even throwing those in, you're still looking at very few sealed black boxes to go around.

-  I left the Q grades in.  To a sealed collector, those really don't mean anything though.  So basically, you could ignore those

Anyway, enjoy!  Hope someone finds these entertaining.  It was fun putting them together, but I don't know if I'd want to do it all over again

[GPX | 1,369]

@blarkyvery nice to see something like this! This should give the general public an idea of what genuine rarity is like, and how hard high grades are to find for most games in the 80s and even early 90s.

Just want to nitpick you with your jibe with the Q grades. In the current era of CIB grading, I think Q grades will become more greatly appreciated by the masses in the following years. We could make a small bet if you like?

[blarky | 42]

3 minutes ago, GPX said:

@blarkyvery nice to see something like this! This should give the general public an idea of what genuine rarity is like, and how hard high grades are to find for most games in the 80s and even early 90s.

Just want to nitpick you with your jibe with the Q grades. In the current era of CIB grading, I think Q grades will become more greatly appreciated by the masses in the following years. We could make a small bet if you like?

Thanks! 

There's a world of difference between Q and sealed though.  The major problem is that I think VGA also purported that Q games are also supposed to be "new but opened".... but please correct me if I'm wrong there.  The one or two Q games I've had clearly had lot of spine wear on the box, and some overall wear in general, indicating it had been opened many times, which doesn't really feel "new" to me.  To me, that really hurt that overall argument.  Also, I really don't know how VGA is/was able to verify the inserts/manuals/contents of the games for completeness/authenticity/chronology/cohesiveness.  i.e. does that manual really go with that game, or is there a variation difference?  In the early days, there's no way VGA had that kind of knowledge to do this reliably.  In general I really think Q was an afterthought at VGA so they could take in more business.  Finally, VGA really made discerning "sealed" from Q games very difficult.  If you look at the label, you have to squint to see the "qualified" text.  A better way I finally realized is that the sealed games have the "pink" background, and the Q games have the "baby blue" background on the VGA label.  In all honesty, I think wata has done a tremendously better job catering to the CIB market.  I would bet that many Q graded games, if crossed to wata, would receive "IMP" status for incorrect married parts.  Wata simply has much better data to decide the wholeness of CIB and if all the parts match up properly.

[Dumars2001 | 164]

22 hours ago, blarky said:

I'm not sure how useful this information is today, but in the spirit of sharing, here is some population report data from VGA I collected in 3 separate eras (2013, 2016, and 2019).

Basically, I sought to track the VGA population reports for all 30 NES Black Box games, plus two of the silver boxes (Kid Icarus and Metroid... apologies to rad Rad Racer!).  

Click here:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1opkt0rSqaabC-fLPv5ScDDu7ryJpwKgiZlf9vCnhxP4/edit#gid=1892999251

Click on the tabs at the bottom of this spreadsheet [2013], [2016], and [2019] to see the snapshots for those years.  Obviously, you'd want the 2019 for the latest, but it's kinda neat to see the changes over the earlier periods.  You might want to set the zoom to 75%.

For those unaware, in the past VGA allowed you to request 3 game population reports per day via email (business days only).  However, each variation counted as a separate game.  i.e. SMB Cardboard hangtab was a variant, white seal was a variant, etc.  And even sometimes the year of release mattered too.  For example, white seal SMB had separate 1988 and a 1989 years, which is why that one seems to be broken up as 2 sets of data.  In fact, looking at this now, I don't appear to have gotten the 1989 SMB white seal data for 2013, only 1988 data.  It's all part of how they had it stored in their database, which I admit I don't really understand.  Putting all that together it meant that a single black box game pop report could burn all 3 of your requests per day, and that might not be even enough to cover a single title!  This process took a while, and I thank VGA for putting up with me during these times lol.  They were pretty responsive most of the time, but sometimes my email got lost in the mix and I didn't get a response for a while, so I had to re-send the request.  Over the course of a few months, I could slowly fill out the complete table.  

The years for 2013 and 2016 are generally complete, but unfortunately, I was only able to finish roughly half of the 2019 data.  Late that year, I started getting the response from VGA that their database was being updated, and that retrieving population reports would not be possible anymore.  As many others have noted, this continues to be their response to this very day.  So this is where the project sort of ended.  If pigs fly and VGA ever gets to finishing their new website, perhaps this and all their other population reports all be available for anyone to see.... but I'm not holding my breath!  

VGA's terminology for the 4 "major" variants of the black boxes:
- Cardboard Hangtab/Hinge sticker      --> these are the sticker sealed games with cardboard hangtab
- Cardboard Hangtab                             --> start of the shrinkwrapped era games, also with cardboard hangtab
- Black/Silver Nintendo Seal                  --> non-cardboard hangtab games, but still have the circular seal of quality
- White Nintendo Seal                            --> oval / white seal of quality

Note: don't ask me why but sometimes VGA called it "Black" Nintendo seal, and sometimes it was "Silver" Nintendo seal.  Key point though is that it's the older / circular seal of quality.  (Kid Icarus and Metroid are "Gold" Nintendo Seal instead of either "Black" or "Silver")

 

Caveat emptors/disclaimers/notes/etc:

- Data is for entertainment purposes only.  I do not guarantee the accuracy of it.  

- This was a manual process, there could be mistakes in the tables, either by myself inputting them wrong, or just getting bad data to begin with.  I actually remember getting one pop report that suddenly had fewer results in the later years than in the earlier one, which didn't make sense.  I pointed it out and then they realized it was their mistake and provided me with the correct data.

- Obviously even the latest data here is rather old by this point.  And some of these games have been crossed over to wata (there have been many public posts of black/silver box wata crossovers).  But the main ideas here were to get a general sense of what was graded over the years, and also to point out how few certain titles had been graded over time since VGA started.  Some variants even as of the last reports still had no graded examples of.  Also, a well known collector has at least one sealed six pack case of each of these games, but it's unknown what variant(s) they are.  While most of those would be pristine examples, even throwing those in, you're still looking at very few sealed black boxes to go around.

-  I left the Q grades in.  To a sealed collector, those really don't mean anything though.  So basically, you could ignore those

Anyway, enjoy!  Hope someone finds these entertaining.  It was fun putting them together, but I don't know if I'd want to do it all over again

Wow! That is an awesome list that you compiled. Interesting to roughly see the population of these sealed blackbox games as of 2019. I would imagine there are even fewer of these Sealed black box games slabbed in VGA cases now, because they have been crossed over to WATA.

This shows that there really aren't too many of these games sealed for almost all titles, but of course some are way more rarer than other titles, but in the grand scheme of things, I think there is much more demand than supply for every single blackbox title out there. 

Thanks so much for the awesome list and taking the time to compile it.

Edited July 15, 2021 by Dumars2001

[Frost271 | 22]

This is awesome Blarky. Biggest issue the community will have is that once (if ever) WATA releases any pop report, *hopefully* they are tracking whats been crossed. Otherwise there will be no real way to tell the true population of a WATA database. 

However, i would find your list / VGA most accurate. Simple reason. Time. They been doing this for 2 decades and the only grading company through that time period. No crossing or questions. True population numbers here. 

Edited July 15, 2021 by Frost271

[Dumars2001 | 164]

Thanks again Blarky for sharing this with the community and the effort that went into it, to obtain the treasure trove of information on these coveted graded sealed blackbox games. Like we both said, their could be more or less now, because of the WATA crossovers and more raw copies getting graded by VGA. But I decided to use your database and count how many sealed (Sorry, no Q grades) VGA blackbox games there were as of 2016 to 2019. Of course, I just counted the exact amount of sealed games for each game and not get into all the other variables. 

In my opinion, the total amount of sealed blackbox games across the board is shockingly low at 490 total VGA graded blackbox games. With all the new people/companies jumping into the video game market, if you own any of these, you got pure gold. The supply of this amount will not be able to satisfy the influx of new money/collectors coming into the hobby. Just my humble thinking.

1. Soccer- 3 total sealed copies

2. Donkey Kong Jr. Math- 4 total sealed copies

2. Slalom- 4 total sealed copies

3. Donkey Kong- 5 total sealed copies

4. Clu Clu Land- 6 total sealed copies

4. Volleyball- 6 total sealed copies

4. Donkey Kong Jr.- 6 total sealed copies

5. Gyromite- 7 total sealed copies

5. Urban Champion- 7 total sealed copies

5. Pro Wrestling- 7 total sealed copies

6. Gumshoe- 8 total sealed copies

6. Mach Rider- 8 total sealed copies

7. Popeye- 8 total sealed copies

8. Mario Bros.- 9 total sealed copies

9. Ice Climber- 10 total sealed copies

10. Wrecking Crew- 11 total sealed copies

11. Tennis- 11 total sealed copies

12. Donkey Kong 3- 11 total sealed copies

13. Balloon Fight-11 total sealed copies

14. Wild Gunman- 12 total sealed copies

15. Duck Hunt- 12 total sealed copies

16. Baseball-14 total sealed copies

17. Stack-Up- 15 total sealed copies

18. 10-Yard Fight-16 total sealed copies 

19. Kung Fu- 36 total sealed copies

20. Excitebike- 38 total sealed copies

21. Golf- 38 total sealed copies 

22. Hogan's Alley- 45 total sealed copies

23. Pinball-58 total sealed copies 

24. Super Mario Bros.- 85 total sealed copies 

 

Edited August 8, 2021 by Dumars2001

[GetTheGreg | 105]

@blarkywas your old avatar...a guy smoking a cigar?  I'm desperately trying to remember haha

[blarky | 42]

2 hours ago, Maertens29 said:

@blarkywas your old avatar...a guy smoking a cigar?  I'm desperately trying to remember haha

Yep, it sure was!  Thanks for the reminder.  It was Arnold smoking a cigar (see below).  I also used the Dragon Quest Cyclops, which was the only one I could recall when I signed up here.

 

Edited July 15, 2021 by blarky

[Foochie776 | 1,052]

Great information! Thanks for sharing. Always good to see an old timer around  

[GetTheGreg | 105]

4 hours ago, blarky said:

Yep, it sure was!  Thanks for the reminder.  It was Arnold smoking a cigar (see below).  I also used the Dragon Quest Cyclops, which was the only one I could recall when I signed up here.

 

hahah I can't believe I couldn't remember it was Arnie.  That's so funny.

Also, really appreciate this info!  It might be dated, but I can't imagine the pops on these games moving by massive numbers.

[3rdStrongestMole | 430]

Even this sample reflects how stingy VGA is with their grading.  Of course,  these are all the earliest run Nintendo games, but still... only a handful of 90s throughout the whole batch. An 85+ could go to WATA for an A+ 9.2 probably. Just tough to know exactly since they don't separate the seal and box categories. 

[blarky | 42]

2 minutes ago, 3rdStrongestMole said:

Even this sample reflects how stingy VGA is with their grading.  Of course,  these are all the earliest run Nintendo games, but still... only a handful of 90s throughout the whole batch. An 85+ could go to WATA for an A+ 9.2 probably. Just tough to know exactly since they don't separate the seal and box categories. 

Perhaps a little yes.  But moreso I think it just reflects just how underwhelming the condition is for many of the sealed black box games that have turned up.  For whatever reason, they are usually beat up, scuffed plastic, dinged corners, etc.  Especially for shrinkwrap,  the black color of the box really highlights ANY shrinkwrap scuffing.  Any other color would hide that a lot better.

[3rdStrongestMole | 430]

59 minutes ago, blarky said:

Perhaps a little yes.  But moreso I think it just reflects just how underwhelming the condition is for many of the sealed black box games that have turned up.  For whatever reason, they are usually beat up, scuffed plastic, dinged corners, etc.  Especially for shrinkwrap,  the black color of the box really highlights ANY shrinkwrap scuffing.  Any other color would hide that a lot better.

Good point. It's pretty eye opening. They never show up on Ebay and I just figured everyone was hoarding them, but now it looks like they may just be few and far between. I guess I shouldn't be surprised.  Wish WATA would get their shit together and release a pop report. That would shed more light on the current scene.  

[Frost271 | 22]

10 hours ago, 3rdStrongestMole said:

Even this sample reflects how stingy VGA is with their grading.  Of course,  these are all the earliest run Nintendo games, but still... only a handful of 90s throughout the whole batch. An 85+ could go to WATA for an A+ 9.2 probably. Just tough to know exactly since they don't separate the seal and box categories. 

I agree with the stinginess. Im not sure how VGA grades today, but back in the early days, you got a 90 for a minor scuff on the cello. Their standards were ridiculous and all revolved around minor scuffs on the plastic. I see A++ WATAs that would easily be 85+ VGA just off the scuffing.  I have about 70 games with detailed VGA grading reports at 90 or higher and its all cello knocks no structure issues.

i’ve picked up a few WATA games and they are definitely not close to how VGA grades. In my opinion, many many early 90s would easily cross to 9.8s A++. At least the very small sample I have seen thus far. Jonebone put together an excellent cross article a couple years back here from his samples.  

What I’ve seen thus far are that 9.4s are 85+s at best in VGA. 9.2s 85 at best.  Note that i stopped getting things graded in 2015 so, again, not sure what VGA is doing these days in terms of knock downs in grading.  Even when it came to cases,  you rarely got 90+s and it was due to scuffing / rubbing of the games to each other in the box. The knockdowns were ridiculously annoying. 

Edited July 16, 2021 by Frost271

[blarky | 42]

In Maertens29 latest youtube video comments, Annie pointed out that the 2016 data for SMB Cardboard Hangtab had a duplicate instance of 85(1) 

I never noticed that, and agree that doesn't make sense.  

So I went back and checked my emails to see how I screwed up.

Turns out, I copied and pasted exactly what they sent me, which has the duplicate entry.  This is the exact text that was sent on June 20, 2016 from VGA:

1985, Nintendo, NES, Black Nintendo Seal, Super Mario Bros., Cardboard Hangtab, NTSC:

Q90(1), Q90+(1), 85+(2), 85(1), Q85+(1), 85(1), 80+(3), 80(3), Q80(1), 75(2).

 

So it could be a copy/paste error on their end, or maybe there is something there.  In any case, it's just 1 copy +/-.   

 

As far as errors on my end, I'm off the hook this time  

Edited August 8, 2021 by blarky

[ThePhleo | 2,185]

I knew about the VGA 80 sticker sealed Super Mario Bros., but I had no idea there was an 85+ out there.

Coupled with formerly-Dan's copy that's three sticker sealed SMB's floating around out there!

Cool data

[blarky | 42]

49 minutes ago, ThePhleo said:

I knew about the VGA 80 sticker sealed Super Mario Bros., but I had no idea there was an 85+ out there.

Coupled with formerly-Dan's copy that's three sticker sealed SMB's floating around out there!

Cool data

No, just 2 sticker sealed copies.  The 85+ was the Dan copy that crossed to Wata.

[ThePhleo | 2,185]

6 hours ago, blarky said:

No, just 2 sticker sealed copies.  The 85+ was the Dan copy that crossed to Wata.

I could have sworn his copy was raw.

Either way, I love this chart.

[CIB_Wholesale | 418]

amazing how low all the numbers are for every game. I was expecting a lot more

most amazing is with all the big numbers flying around, few of the major ones going to auction

Hinge sticker (no dist btw matte or gloss). i know of another pinball and raws of a lot of games so take with a grain of sal

Hinge sticker list:

Pinball	1
Soccer	1
Wrecking Crew	1
Donkey Kong Jr.	1
Gumshoe	1
Balloon Fight	1
Duck Hunt	1
Hogan's Alley	1
Mario Bros.	1
Excitebike	2
Urban Champion	2
Donkey Kong Jr. Math	2
Tennis	2
Golf	2
Super Mario Bros.	2
Baseball	3
Clu Clu Land	3
Wild Gunman	3
Ice Climber	5
Gyromite	7
Stack-Up	7

Edited August 8, 2021 by SealedWholesale

[ThePhleo | 2,185]

Duck Hunt is the big surprise.

Gyromite & Duck Hunt are literally the most common sticker sealed game of any variant. So for Duck Hunt to only have one, while Gyromite has 7 is a real curiousity.

Makes me think that there’s likely way more out there that isn’t graded just because it “wasn’t worth it”

[blarky | 42]

 

3 hours ago, SealedWholesale said:

amazing how low all the numbers are for every game. I was expecting a lot more

most amazing is with all the big numbers flying around, few of the major ones going to auction

Hinge sticker (no dist btw matte or gloss). i know of another pinball and raws of a lot of games so take with a grain of sal

Hinge sticker list:

 

The sealed black box hinge sticker pop list is extremely low, yes.  Some do not even have 1 graded example of as of the pop request dates.

20 minutes ago, ThePhleo said:

Duck Hunt is the big surprise.

Gyromite & Duck Hunt are literally the most common sticker sealed game of any variant. So for Duck Hunt to only have one, while Gyromite has 7 is a real curiousity.

Makes me think that there’s likely way more out there that isn’t graded just because it “wasn’t worth it”

My theory on that is DH was a more appealing game to open and play since it had the light gun, while setting up Gyromite took a lot more work.  i.e people were more willing to try DH and less willing to try Gyromite.  Which might help explain why there were more sticker sealed Gyromites that have been found left over vs DH.

 

One other oddity unrelated.  The 85(2) copies of Gumshoe Black Nintendo Seal shouldn't exist since all variants of Gumshoe had the Cardboard Hangtab.  But I think the explanation is simple.  I believe these were 2 copies graded very early in the VGA days from Brian's toys.  I remember seeing the pictures of them, and thought I saved them, but I just can't find them (if anyone has them, please send!).  Anyway, I don't think the designation of "Cardboard Hangtab" hadn't yet been implemented by VGA at that time.

Edited August 8, 2021 by blarky

[CIB_Wholesale | 418]

49 stickers (no distinction matte vs gloss)

120 hts

241 black seal no ht

~411 total without the white seals

 

 Take out junk like gyromite and stack up and there are about 35 sticker black box... w/ 2+ box variations inside each sticker category

Donkey Kong, Kung Fu, and Mach Rider, Popeye, 10 Yard Fight

all have sticker seal box vars but no examples of sealed AFAIK

dk no ht also missing

 

 

% sticker sealed of total HT count

10-Yard Fight	0.00%
Donkey Kong	0.00%
Donkey Kong 3	0.00%
Kung Fu	0.00%
Mach Rider	0.00%
Popeye	0.00%
Hogan's Alley	14.29%
Super Mario Bros.	15.38%
Balloon Fight	16.67%
Donkey Kong Jr.	16.67%
Gumshoe	16.67%
Wrecking Crew	16.67%
Pinball	25.00%
Wild Gunman	30.00%
Baseball	33.33%
Duck Hunt	33.33%
Golf	33.33%
Soccer	33.33%
Tennis	40.00%
Urban Champion	40.00%
Clu Clu Land	50.00%
Donkey Kong Jr. Math	50.00%
Excitebike	50.00%
Mario Bros.	50.00%
Ice Climber	62.50%
Gyromite	100.00%

Edited August 20, 2021 by SealedWholesale

[CIB_Wholesale | 418]

vga sent a email they are going to do pop reports BETA

 

"While we plan on the incorporation of up-to-date population reports on the new site, we are currently exploring the feasibility of offering a BETA version of population reports on our current .NET website as well. Subsequent website additions will include an improved customer service interface and a streamlined submission process."

Edited August 26, 2021 by SealedWholesale

[CIB_Wholesale | 418]

can you take the pops from Wata and compare the 30 games total populations to guess what the rest of the market looks like

[Gulag Joe | 582]

9 minutes ago, CIBWholesale said:

can you take the pops from Wata and compare the 30 games total populations to guess what the rest of the market looks like

Reserved Investments supported the belief that if you combine the populations of Wata and VGA, it would come out to like 500 some sealed games. I guess he didn't see these numbers, but I'm sure hundreds more poured in for VGA to grade since 2019.