FS Pokémon Blue New and Sealed, Holy Grail Quality, $24,000

[Romiked2689 | 120]

On 3/24/2021 at 8:40 PM, AdamW said:

Right. According to me (and WATA and HA) this is a second print, as it's the one in a y-fold box with a screenshot of Rattata on the back.

The first print is the one in a double-ended box with Sandshrew in the screenshot on the back.

See

and https://comics.ha.com/itm/video-games/pokemon-blue-version-wata-85-a-sealed-sandshrew-blue-text-mid-production-gb-nintendo-1998-usa/a/7239-93038.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515 for HA/WATA's write-up of things.

The copy that sold near $20k on eBay was the "Red text" variant of the Sandshrew print, which is strongly believed to be the earliest identifiable production of Red or Blue, and relatively rare (around 10% of all copies of Blue are that variant, in my survey). I suspect the person who bought it knew what they were buying, at that price. No other copy of Blue has yet sold for more than $9,500 AFAIK.

edit: of course, the current HA auction that ends in a week may set some new bars. There are two copies of this print in that auction, one graded 9.2/A+, the other 8.5/A. They're currently at $5250 and $3100 respectively.

Wata does not confirm this as the second print. Wata’s current stance is that the double ended were made in a different factory at the same time as y fold. 
 

also heritage doesn’t count for anything on video game knowledge just an auction house that would love to label stuff as first print to push their bottom line:) 

also I’ve heard that the double ended boxes were made for the Costco mega bundles. 

[AdamW | 713]

1 hour ago, Romiked2689 said:

Wata does not confirm this as the second print. Wata’s current stance is that the double ended were made in a different factory at the same time as y fold. 
 

also heritage doesn’t count for anything on video game knowledge just an auction house that would love to label stuff as first print to push their bottom line:) 

also I’ve heard that the double ended boxes were made for the Costco mega bundles. 

If you're taking that from https://comics.ha.com/itm/p/7261-44001.s then I think that's actually my stance which WATA/HA are garbling slightly I mailed them about it a couple of weeks back, and that text showed up in the first listing they wrote after that. They didn't quite get it right, though. The post you quoted is several weeks old at this point; this is stuff we've worked out since then (which AFAIK no-one else has talked about before, or if they have, I haven't seen it).

There's a lot more about it in the main thread about this stuff starting here:

and also at efour starting here: https://efour.proboards.com/post/414418/thread

The really short summary is: all first productions are Sandshrews, but not all Sandshrews are first productions. Even ignoring the "Red text" thing for Blue.

The slightly longer version: if you examine Sandshrew boxes carefully, there are actually two slightly different types. They're identical from the outside, but the built-in cartridge holder arrangement is different. On some boxes it has a tab that acts as a 'lid' for the pocket where the cartridge sits; on some it doesn't, the pocket is just open. The 'tab' pocket is also wider and deeper than the 'open' pocket, which I think is significant for a reason I'll get to later.

I did a survey of my recorded listings of Sandshrew prints, and found there's a strong association between the box style and the contents. "Tab" boxes always seem to show up with the white-ESRB cartridge, white-ESRB manual U/DMG-APEE-USA or U/DMG-APAE-USA, and consumer safety U/DMG-USA-6. "Open" boxes sometimes show up with the same manual and cart but also often show up with black-ESRB cart and black-ESRB manual U/DMG-APEE-USA-1 or U/DMG-APAE-USA-1, and they always seem to show up with consumer safety U/DMG-USA-7.

So my conclusion is that there were at least three runs of the Sandshrew print. Earlier runs, including the true first production, came in "tab" boxes with white-ESRB carts and manuals and -6 consumer safety. Middle runs switched to "open" boxes and -7 consumer safety, and the latest runs switched to black-ESRB carts and the -1 black-ESRB manuals. There is supporting evidence for the "tab" box being earlier and the "open" box being later: all double-ended boxes for later games (Yellow and Crystal) have an "open" cart pocket, and every identifiable "Red text" Blue box I've seen - which we're fairly sure are the earliest identifiable boxes because of the text error - was a "tab" box.

We know the first production boxes must be Sandshrew simply because they can't be Rattata. Rattata boxes all have date codes, and I have checked a lot of them now, and never found one earlier than 990705 (July 5, 1999); the games came out in late 1998. There's also the consumer safety revisions to support this; Rattata boxes never show up with anything earlier than DMG-USA-7 (very late copies of black-ESRB boxes have DMG-USA-8), while "early" Sandshrew boxes have U/DMG-USA-6.

However, I think if you actually follow the evidence, it seems pretty clear that not all Sandshrews are first production. It's difficult to be sure, but some Sandshrews are likely later than some Rattatas. As noted, the latest Sandshrews came with black-ESRB carts and manuals; the earliest Rattata we know of is 990705. 990705 would be pretty early for any black-ESRB materials to be produced, I think, so I do think the latest Sandshrews may be later than the earliest Rattatas. This is the point I think WATA/HA picked up from my email.

The obvious question for HA types at this point - if you accept all the above and don't just give up cos stuff is hard - is, how do you tell whether a sealed Sandshrew is the early kind or a later kind?  I actually have a theory about that: you weigh them. Remember that thing about the 'tab' pocket being wider than the 'flap' pocket? The 'tab' pocket fits a cartridge in a protector case. The 'open' pocket doesn't. Early Sandshrew CIB listings also quite often include such a case; later Sandshrew and Rattata listings rarely do. I suspect tab-pocket copies actually included the case; if you were to unseal one and open it, you'd find the cartridge in a protector case in the box. 'Open' pocket copies wouldn't include a case because they can't fit one. And those cases weigh about 15g.

So, I suspect if you have an early and a later sealed Sandshrew next to each other, and you weighed them both, the early one would come out about 15g heavier. My best estimate is that the expected weight for a sealed 'early' Sandshrew is around 125g and the expected weight for a sealed 'later' Sandshrew is 110g. It's hard to confirm this theory, though, as amazingly enough I don't have a dozen or so sealed Sandshrews just lying around. I'm trying to find people who have ungraded sealed Sandshrews and are willing to weigh them, but it's tough sledding.

It's interesting that HA has not yet published the flavor text for the Sandshrew Red they're selling in July, only the Blue; this wrinkle is more important for Red than Blue because for Blue we have the "Red text" thing. We already know the earliest identifiable Blue boxes are the "Red text" ones. I suspect they may be thinking about whether they want to buy my theory before printing the Red description.

I don't buy double-ended boxes having anything to do with bundles for several reasons. Most obviously for Red/Blue, as mentioned above, it seems pretty inarguable that the original release boxes in holiday 1998 must have been double-ended (Sandshrew) boxes; all of them, in all stores. There's no evidence you could buy a Rattata box before fall 1999 anywhere. Additional evidence: there's way too many of them for them to plausibly be unique to a store or a bundle; Sandshrew is the most common print of Red and Blue, there are several million of each. If you talk to people who claim to be the original owners of them, there's no pattern to where they remember buying them. And a few weeks ago I dug out a picture of the no-ESRB print of Yellow (which is a double-ended print) for sale on its own, not in any kind of bundle, in a Toys 'R' Us in mid-2000.

Edited May 25, 2021 by AdamW

[Romiked2689 | 120]

20 hours ago, AdamW said:

If you're taking that from https://comics.ha.com/itm/p/7261-44001.s then I think that's actually my stance which WATA/HA are garbling slightly I mailed them about it a couple of weeks back, and that text showed up in the first listing they wrote after that. They didn't quite get it right, though. The post you quoted is several weeks old at this point; this is stuff we've worked out since then (which AFAIK no-one else has talked about before, or if they have, I haven't seen it).

There's a lot more about it in the main thread about this stuff starting here:

and also at efour starting here: https://efour.proboards.com/post/414418/thread

The really short summary is: all first productions are Sandshrews, but not all Sandshrews are first productions. Even ignoring the "Red text" thing for Blue.

The slightly longer version: if you examine Sandshrew boxes carefully, there are actually two slightly different types. They're identical from the outside, but the built-in cartridge holder arrangement is different. On some boxes it has a tab that acts as a 'lid' for the pocket where the cartridge sits; on some it doesn't, the pocket is just open. The 'tab' pocket is also wider and deeper than the 'open' pocket, which I think is significant for a reason I'll get to later.

I did a survey of my recorded listings of Sandshrew prints, and found there's a strong association between the box style and the contents. "Tab" boxes always seem to show up with the white-ESRB cartridge, white-ESRB manual U/DMG-APEE-USA or U/DMG-APAE-USA, and consumer safety U/DMG-USA-6. "Open" boxes sometimes show up with the same manual and cart but also often show up with black-ESRB cart and black-ESRB manual U/DMG-APEE-USA-1 or U/DMG-APAE-USA-1, and they always seem to show up with consumer safety U/DMG-USA-7.

So my conclusion is that there were at least three runs of the Sandshrew print. Earlier runs, including the true first production, came in "tab" boxes with white-ESRB carts and manuals and -6 consumer safety. Middle runs switched to "open" boxes and -7 consumer safety, and the latest runs switched to black-ESRB carts and the -1 black-ESRB manuals. There is supporting evidence for the "tab" box being earlier and the "open" box being later: all double-ended boxes for later games (Yellow and Crystal) have an "open" cart pocket, and every identifiable "Red text" Blue box I've seen - which we're fairly sure are the earliest identifiable boxes because of the text error - was a "tab" box.

We know the first production boxes must be Sandshrew simply because they can't be Rattata. Rattata boxes all have date codes, and I have checked a lot of them now, and never found one earlier than 990705 (July 5, 1999); the games came out in late 1998. There's also the consumer safety revisions to support this; Rattata boxes never show up with anything earlier than DMG-USA-7 (very late copies of black-ESRB boxes have DMG-USA-8), while "early" Sandshrew boxes have U/DMG-USA-6.

However, I think if you actually follow the evidence, it seems pretty clear that not all Sandshrews are first production. It's difficult to be sure, but some Sandshrews are likely later than some Rattatas. As noted, the latest Sandshrews came with black-ESRB carts and manuals; the earliest Rattata we know of is 990705. 990705 would be pretty early for any black-ESRB materials to be produced, I think, so I do think the latest Sandshrews may be later than the earliest Rattatas. This is the point I think WATA/HA picked up from my email.

The obvious question for HA types at this point - if you accept all the above and don't just give up cos stuff is hard - is, how do you tell whether a sealed Sandshrew is the early kind or a later kind?  I actually have a theory about that: you weigh them. Remember that thing about the 'tab' pocket being wider than the 'flap' pocket? The 'tab' pocket fits a cartridge in a protector case. The 'open' pocket doesn't. Early Sandshrew CIB listings also quite often include such a case; later Sandshrew and Rattata listings rarely do. I suspect tab-pocket copies actually included the case; if you were to unseal one and open it, you'd find the cartridge in a protector case in the box. 'Open' pocket copies wouldn't include a case because they can't fit one. And those cases weigh about 15g.

So, I suspect if you have an early and a later sealed Sandshrew next to each other, and you weighed them both, the early one would come out about 15g heavier. My best estimate is that the expected weight for a sealed 'early' Sandshrew is around 125g and the expected weight for a sealed 'later' Sandshrew is 110g. It's hard to confirm this theory, though, as amazingly enough I don't have a dozen or so sealed Sandshrews just lying around. I'm trying to find people who have ungraded sealed Sandshrews and are willing to weigh them, but it's tough sledding.

It's interesting that HA has not yet published the flavor text for the Sandshrew Red they're selling in July, only the Blue; this wrinkle is more important for Red than Blue because for Blue we have the "Red text" thing. We already know the earliest identifiable Blue boxes are the "Red text" ones. I suspect they may be thinking about whether they want to buy my theory before printing the Red description.

I don't buy double-ended boxes having anything to do with bundles for several reasons. Most obviously for Red/Blue, as mentioned above, it seems pretty inarguable that the original release boxes in holiday 1998 must have been double-ended (Sandshrew) boxes; all of them, in all stores. There's no evidence you could buy a Rattata box before fall 1999 anywhere. Additional evidence: there's way too many of them for them to plausibly be unique to a store or a bundle; Sandshrew is the most common print of Red and Blue, there are several million of each. If you talk to people who claim to be the original owners of them, there's no pattern to where they remember buying them. And a few weeks ago I dug out a picture of the no-ESRB print of Yellow (which is a double-ended print) for sale on its own, not in any kind of bundle, in a Toys 'R' Us in mid-2000.

I’m sorry I haven’t been on vgs lately  

[AdamW | 713]

No probs If you know of anywhere else people are interested in this stuff that I haven't shown up yet, let me know