ExplodedHamster

5 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

I never said finding casepacks is a "normal occurence." I said, and do believe, that there are certainly more that exist and have not come to light (or those that own them are not the type to flash them all over social media).

Yeah, I mean if people have stuff and have not graded them, that is always a possibility. The opportunity for grading has been around a long time, however. 

Just now, CodysGameRoom said:

Oh, when are they coming out?

I have no idea, but hopefully soon. I’ve wanted pop reports for over a year now. There is no need for the speculation. Let the numbers speak for themselves, though VGA’s old numbers do provide some clue.

3 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

So 3/10 received a 9.8? And you just bought this from someone last year? Yeah I will definitely stick to my over 50 in existence odds...

Sure, if you think finding casepacks of Ocarina and Mario 64 maintained in great condition is a normal occurrence (the number of “Uncirculated” designations on VGA’s pop reports suggest otherwise). But let’s see what pop reports say. 

20 minutes ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

Sure. But 90+ and above is more or less equivalent to 9.8 A++ to most COLLECTORS. For speculators and investors, they need that good ole Jimmy Halps Heritage Auction boost so they need a Wata graded game to access that "lucrative" desired auction platform. 

I think it is foolish to say there is no chance that there are at least 50 of these in existence. Yes, casepacks are still coming out. You yourself bought a casepack of Ocarina of Times last year. Weren't nearly all of them either 90+ or 9.8 A++?

I agree, pop reports should be released. Alot of things should have been or shouldn't have been done. Certain people have been making a ton of money at the expense of others. Hence why there has been no urgency to take action. 

I bought 2 Ocarina casepacks from someone who had maintained them meticulously. Three were graded by prior owner as 90+ (one is overgraded imo) and 3 of the remaining 9 got 9.8s. The rest were a mix of 9.4 and 9.6. Maybe one of the 90+ would 9.8 (I’d say 50-50), the other two def not. 

5 minutes ago, AdamW said:

2 also always seems to do "worse" than 3 I think just because of how it's such an odd one out in the series. The really interesting sales to watch should be the 9.8 SM64 in goldin and the 9.6 in the next HA Sig, plus any SMBs that are coming up if they're in comparable grade/print to sales from July...

I think it’s quite possible that Mario 64 sees a dropoff, but the rest grow. Sometimes two aggressive bidders can cause that. I remember when the first sealed Stadium Events like a decade ago went for 41k, and then when the next one came along it was all the way down to like 20. Only so many people are buying games at a certain level and the variation can be huge.

16 hours ago, WalterWhiteJr. said:

This is VGA pop report data from several years ago for Mario 64:

Super Mario 64 (1996): U95+(1), U95(2), 95(4), U90(3), 90+(4), 90(16), 85+(18), 85(19), 80+(11), 80(4), 75+(4), 75(1)

I’m going to say that all the 90+ and above are equivalent to 9.8 A++ and I’ll be generous and say half of the 90s will cross to equivalent. that’s 22 right there. This data is several years old. Given the explosion in popularity since, I don’t think it’s crazy to think that these numbers have doubled since. I’ll be generous yet again and just say 1.5X. Now we are up to 33. Toss in the 2 actual Wata 9.8 A++ and we are at 35. You honestly don’t think that there’s at LEAST 15 9.8 A++ equivalents that are raw or in cases? Not every sealed collector is a social media whore or cares about grading. The more I type this out, the more I’m convincing myself that 50 is actually on the low end. 

Major caveat here is that N64 games generally cross poorly. VGA seems to put a heavy emphasis on seal, WATA is strict on the N64 box grades, and N64 boxes are so prone to indenting and creasing because of the air inside. There is absolutely no chance there are 50 or more of these, or anywhere near it, unless someone has been stashing case packs in their basement (possible, but decreasingly likely as huge numbers hit the news and none come forth). Even then, casepacks you usually see 1-2 9.8 with N64. 

But this is the problem with no pop reports and why they really ought to start THIS WEEK to address that problem. I'm also hoping that WATA has been tracking all the crossovers, such that we can at least try to pinpoint as accurate a count as possible between the companies.

7 minutes ago, darkchylde28 said:

 

So, as convenient as it is for everybody with skin in the game to be making absolutely batshit insane money right now, the way that the bubble WATA and HA are doing things pretty well mirrors what went on the 80s, except that HA seems insulated from where the charges would be applied should the FTC get involved and choose to do so.  If all WATA ever said was they believed that there was the potential for substantial value in the highest graded items, that would be a "gray" statement from them, but not them grading something up then declaring what its value should be, as they're not saying what people would, could, or should be paying for it.  Hertiage (via Jim Halperin) was grading things, then telling their market what they were worth, and were burned for it.  WATA hasn't been, yet, but to see the same sort of practice going on at two different times and declaring the currently un-fined one ok, while the other clearly was illegal A-F... 

PSA and CGC also charge based on valuation, I believe. I see both sides to the argument here, though again WATA would have a better argument for the model if they released a pop report imo.

13 minutes ago, darkchylde28 said:

What "spin?"  You brought up the idea of you either use a traditional business model, and your business grows only slowly, potentially stagnating, naming VGA in your example, or you pull all the shenanigans that WATA/HA did to artificially inflate the market, and grow-grow-GROW your profit$$$$ through whatever gray, potentially morally ambiguous, shady, unethical, etc., means at your disposal, so long as you don't get arrested.  I mean, I filled in some descriptors that you left out, but based on the discussion everyone's been involved in, those are apt.  So if you don't like the taglines associated with how the vast majority of people feel about how WATA/HA are doing business, maybe don't be part of that bandwagon?

Having advisory boards filled with business partners who use and promote a product for mutual profit IS a traditional business model, particularly during start-up. Investors, in fact, often negotiate to be part of advisory boards when signing on. 

My point is more that grading companies, which offer a subjective service, are stuck in a precarious spot off the bat. Either they go it alone and limit their business, or they partner with others and get skewered somewhere along the line for bias. VGA got it all the time too, particularly on NA, it was just a much smaller scale. PSA had their scandal, CGC is getting it now in comics, etc. It’s a very difficult business to grow without controversy.

3 minutes ago, Rhapsody98 said:

TRUE COLLECTORS FILL THEIR HOUSES UP WITH CRAP AND NEVER PART WITH A SINGLE ITEM.  SAY IT AGAIN FOR THE FOLKS IN THE BACK!!

 

Last laugh’s on them when they die and it all gets sold to re-sellers/investors via Estate Sales and Storage Wars .

26 minutes ago, darkchylde28 said:

 

So, you either "go with the flow" and shift your inventory and promotional interests as public interest and demand changes over time, as comic, toy, and hobby shops have done for decades, or, you know, you collude to create unsupported, inflationary "value" in your chosen target, pump that bitch up as high as you can, then sell out to make a killing before it pops and you screw over everybody else who wasn't as cut throat or unethically savvy to get out in time.  And you support option B in that scenario.  Gotcha.  Thanks for making that absolutely crystal clear.

Well…you certainly certainly decided to put your spin on that one lol. As I said, I support there being a pop report, I think it’s the single biggest problem in the market. First year or two, I get not putting one out, but a lot of the concerns people have are satisfied when the data is released. With pop reports, a lot of what you’ve said isn’t even really possible. 
 

As for collector vs investor, I mean investing is largely what graded collectibles is across the board. Hell, it’s the case often with raw games, too. People can also be both, but I doubt you’d accept something like that. Seems like a pretty black/white and good/evil thing to you. That’s fine, to each their own.

25 minutes ago, arch_8ngel said:

Let's bring it back to the primary topic - by your comparison are you suggesting that Wata / HA's conflicts of interest are/were not clearly problematic?

 

 

Here’s the thing, this is literally what the world of collectibles is, due to the subjective nature of grading. Either you become VGA and business is capped, or you partner with auction houses and/or dealers to promote business and it flourishes. The line between “conflict of interest” and “aligned interests” is thin and gray.

Let’s look at the current outlay of collectibles. Major companies are coming in and buying up both grading companies AND auction houses. CU, which just bought WATA and PSA earlier this year, also bought control of Goldin Auctions. It’s been kind of bizarre to see this reaction to information that is largely public and 2-3 years old when nobody seems to bat an eye at other stuff. It’s largely something people who participate in the market know about and accept, because there’s really no easy way to do it. I think the main difference with games and, say, sports cards is that you can’t, like, play sports cards, so there’s not much division within the community. The whole idea of sports cards was to get the rare and high value stuff in packs, even as kids. Games are obviously different and there is much more resentment.

In addition to the above, I’d guess a lot of streamers are jumping in (a few really big streamers livestream Heritage and soon will Goldin) and these titles are in their wheelhouse. Some of these are surprisingly hard to find, others not so much. That Gears of War was actually a steal and will probably get a backdoor attempt. 
 

I also think we need to change perspective on how long it takes for something to become “collectible,” because more younger people are making money (via alternative investments and online services) than ever. The Rule of 25 might need a makeover.

6 hours ago, Driftwood said:

Sorry you had to go through that, it always sucks... small consolation he probably won’t be on ebay much longer with that many negs

Or he can just call Ebay and they’ll delete them lol

QUEST4NES QUEST4NES QUEST4NES

5 minutes ago, AdamW said:

The WATA case I was thinking of is a different and more recent one - not the one where they knowingly graded "interesting" clearly-not-original repros, but one where they seem to have unknowingly graded a repro that really tried to look exactly like an original. I'd have to find the thread again to check the details though.

VGA's response when I and others contacted them about the Pokémon fakes was a stock "we'll tell someone about it" reply from the customer service person and then nothing further. The same fakes have shown up on eBay several times, VGA have taken no apparent action on it. I dunno if WATA were made aware of the PC engine game thing or, if so, what their response was.

Ah ok, I have not seen that one. I didn't even know they were doing PC games lol. I guess just disc jewel cases?

12 minutes ago, Gulag Joe said:

I have a Heritage and Wata question in an auction that's happening right now. The only way I think this game could be a 9.8 A+ is if the scratches all over it are actually from the Wata case and not the seal itself. I do have a Wata case that has scratching inside the case down the left hand spine, but this looks like it's scratched all over. Has anyone seen a slab this bad? I really don't think Wata would grade it this high.

Unfortunately, I have. These things are made in China, ship from China, and sit at docks for like 2-3 months now upon arrival to the US. I'm hoping that Collector's Universe money will offer a solution. The scratched case rate is fairly high, as is the debris rate.

5 minutes ago, AdamW said:

I mean, the VGA Pokemon case was flagrantly obvious. Here's the thread:

those are very well-known fakes and very obvious from the outside. The PC Engine one I wasn't so familiar with but apparently it's well known to those in the know. Some guy who did very accurate unlicensed reproductions, early ones had no intended identifying features, WATA graded one of those...

WATA put on the label it was a reproduction, correct? It still did create a mini firestorm and I believe they agreed to change practice after that because it didn't stand out enough. I personally would like to be able to display some of the great old repros made by the community, but they should probably give them a new label color or something. Or have a label color and the grade area just say "REP" instead of a number grade. In fact, they might have even changed policy to that? I don't know. The only one I ever sent in was a black box Ice Hockey an old NA member made about 7 years ago or so. It has a grade, but I'm never selling it, so I'll either just keep it as is or send it back in to get a new label.

But undoubtedly both VGA and WATA have graded re-seals at some point. There's bound to be some level of human error over the course of tens of thousands of games, long hours, expansion of staff, etc. The question is how grading companies react when such issues are discovered.

11 minutes ago, a3quit4s said:

I never got banned on NA and now I feel left out. 

9 minutes ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

You and me both buddy.

@Gloves, put down that controller again, buddy. Your services have been requested.

6 minutes ago, fcgamer said:

Disagree. Mario 3 was mass-produced, huge selling game, and back in the day even grocery stores and drug stores had video games.

The Micro Genius game, Creatom, for Famicom - how many sealed copies do you think are known to exist? Or Super A'Can games, how many sealed copies?

These items had much, much smaller quantities manufactured, and were much less popular to stock - yet I know XYZ amount to exist sealed. If XYZ quantity of these have been found sealed, something like a f'cking first print Mario 3 is going to be easily many more copies out there, sealed. 

Later prints, definitely. The early “Left Bros” there will be surprisingly few, unless some Nintendo warehouse is unearthed some day. I think VGA pop numbers from a few years ago were like 8-10? A few more have surfaced, but nothing crazy.

2 minutes ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

As far as I know, it was legit.

Just saw the pic now. 
 

Thanks!

Just now, Bearcat-Doug said:

He posted a picture of a sealed 6 pack. It almost seems like he had a second one that he had already split up. 

I thought it was the box, but nobody could tell if it was still factory sealed?

I wouldn’t doubt anything with him, though, he definitely has some crazy shit.

My two cents right now is this:

1. Pop reports really should be out, at least where pre-2000 systems are concerned. There is more than ample time and sample size elapsed to do so. However, I think pop reports (at least for the 8-64 bit eras) will have the opposite effect many speculate. There is a lot of information people like Pat assume (for example, that there are “hundreds of sealed first print Mario 3s because there are a bunch of CIB) that is inaccurate. There’s nothing wrong with the assumptions, and they are often completely rational, but sealed has its quirks. For example, I assumed finding an original run (first release) Skyrim for 360 (less than 10 years old) would be a piece of cake, but it took me somewhere between 6-12 months to finally nab one. One thing a lot of sealed collectors learned quickly the past few years is that what was considered “common” can require a new frame of reference quickly. I’d love pop reports to be out yesterday so we can compare them to, say, comics, Pokemon, or sports cards. Given all this in particular, think it is a massive self-inflicted wound to not release one because it leaves so much room for uninformed (not being used as a pejorative) speculation.
 

2. It would be of tremendous benefit for the buyers of the massive sales to identify themselves. If anyone is looking for 6 figure purchases (or many items at all in graded collectibles) to be “for the love of the game,” they are setting themselves up for disappointment. These are largely investments. Collectibles, crypto, even real estate, different sides of the same coin. But, given the crazy fast rise, the longer buyers remain in the dark, the bigger the risk they will hurt their own value. I do in fact know who one of the large value buyers is, but it’s really up to him/her to make that call on identification. 
 

As @jonebone has said, video games grew too fast in a vacuum, but we are now in an era where other collectibles/bitcoin have shot straight to insanity as well. Jordans and Charizards (both of which have certainly have exponentially larger populations than video games btw), which were already parts of established markets, have also gone nuts. Video games basically skipped established and went straight to insanity, but I believe that’s more a function of timing than anything. Had WATA opened in 2006, this would not have happened as it has.  

4 minutes ago, Bearcat-Doug said:

Is he drinking syrup?

Just now, Bearcat-Doug said:

That sounds like a spell from Shadowgate.

Erectus Gigantis!

Ok Gloves, video game play time is over. Everyone back to fighting.