ExplodedHamster

Yeah, I mean if people have stuff and have not graded them, that is always a possibility. The opportunity for grading has been around a long time, however.

I have no idea, but hopefully soon. I’ve wanted pop reports for over a year now. There is no need for the speculation. Let the numbers speak for themselves, though VGA’s old numbers do provide some clue.

Sure, if you think finding casepacks of Ocarina and Mario 64 maintained in great condition is a normal occurrence (the number of “Uncirculated” designations on VGA’s pop reports suggest otherwise). But let’s see what pop reports say.

I bought 2 Ocarina casepacks from someone who had maintained them meticulously. Three were graded by prior owner as 90+ (one is overgraded imo) and 3 of the remaining 9 got 9.8s. The rest were a mix of 9.4 and 9.6. Maybe one of the 90+ would 9.8 (I’d say 50-50), the other two def not.

I think it’s quite possible that Mario 64 sees a dropoff, but the rest grow. Sometimes two aggressive bidders can cause that. I remember when the first sealed Stadium Events like a decade ago went for 41k, and then when the next one came along it was all the way down to like 20. Only so many people are buying games at a certain level and the variation can be huge.

Major caveat here is that N64 games generally cross poorly. VGA seems to put a heavy emphasis on seal, WATA is strict on the N64 box grades, and N64 boxes are so prone to indenting and creasing because of the air inside. There is absolutely no chance there are 50 or more of these, or anywhere near it, unless someone has been stashing case packs in their basement (possible, but decreasingly likely as huge numbers hit the news and none come forth). Even then, casepacks you usually see 1-2 9.8 with N64. But this is the problem with no pop reports and why they really ought to start THIS WEEK to address that problem. I'm also hoping that WATA has been tracking all the crossovers, such that we can at least try to pinpoint as accurate a count as possible between the companies.

PSA and CGC also charge based on valuation, I believe. I see both sides to the argument here, though again WATA would have a better argument for the model if they released a pop report imo.

Having advisory boards filled with business partners who use and promote a product for mutual profit IS a traditional business model, particularly during start-up. Investors, in fact, often negotiate to be part of advisory boards when signing on. My point is more that grading companies, which offer a subjective service, are stuck in a precarious spot off the bat. Either they go it alone and limit their business, or they partner with others and get skewered somewhere along the line for bias. VGA got it all the time too, particularly on NA, it was just a much smaller scale. PSA had their scandal, CGC is getting it now in comics, etc. It’s a very difficult business to grow without controversy.

Last laugh’s on them when they die and it all gets sold to re-sellers/investors via Estate Sales and Storage Wars .

Well…you certainly certainly decided to put your spin on that one lol. As I said, I support there being a pop report, I think it’s the single biggest problem in the market. First year or two, I get not putting one out, but a lot of the concerns people have are satisfied when the data is released. With pop reports, a lot of what you’ve said isn’t even really possible. As for collector vs investor, I mean investing is largely what graded collectibles is across the board. Hell, it’s the case often with raw games, too. People can also be both, but I doubt you’d accept something like that. Seems like a pretty black/white and good/evil thing to you. That’s fine, to each their own.

Here’s the thing, this is literally what the world of collectibles is, due to the subjective nature of grading. Either you become VGA and business is capped, or you partner with auction houses and/or dealers to promote business and it flourishes. The line between “conflict of interest” and “aligned interests” is thin and gray. Let’s look at the current outlay of collectibles. Major companies are coming in and buying up both grading companies AND auction houses. CU, which just bought WATA and PSA earlier this year, also bought control of Goldin Auctions. It’s been kind of bizarre to see this reaction to information that is largely public and 2-3 years old when nobody seems to bat an eye at other stuff. It’s largely something people who participate in the market know about and accept, because there’s really no easy way to do it. I think the main difference with games and, say, sports cards is that you can’t, like, play sports cards, so there’s not much division within the community. The whole idea of sports cards was to get the rare and high value stuff in packs, even as kids. Games are obviously different and there is much more resentment.

In addition to the above, I’d guess a lot of streamers are jumping in (a few really big streamers livestream Heritage and soon will Goldin) and these titles are in their wheelhouse. Some of these are surprisingly hard to find, others not so much. That Gears of War was actually a steal and will probably get a backdoor attempt. I also think we need to change perspective on how long it takes for something to become “collectible,” because more younger people are making money (via alternative investments and online services) than ever. The Rule of 25 might need a makeover.

Or he can just call Ebay and they’ll delete them lol

QUEST4NES QUEST4NES QUEST4NES

Ah ok, I have not seen that one. I didn't even know they were doing PC games lol. I guess just disc jewel cases?

Unfortunately, I have. These things are made in China, ship from China, and sit at docks for like 2-3 months now upon arrival to the US. I'm hoping that Collector's Universe money will offer a solution. The scratched case rate is fairly high, as is the debris rate.

WATA put on the label it was a reproduction, correct? It still did create a mini firestorm and I believe they agreed to change practice after that because it didn't stand out enough. I personally would like to be able to display some of the great old repros made by the community, but they should probably give them a new label color or something. Or have a label color and the grade area just say "REP" instead of a number grade. In fact, they might have even changed policy to that? I don't know. The only one I ever sent in was a black box Ice Hockey an old NA member made about 7 years ago or so. It has a grade, but I'm never selling it, so I'll either just keep it as is or send it back in to get a new label. But undoubtedly both VGA and WATA have graded re-seals at some point. There's bound to be some level of human error over the course of tens of thousands of games, long hours, expansion of staff, etc. The question is how grading companies react when such issues are discovered.

@Gloves, put down that controller again, buddy. Your services have been requested.

Later prints, definitely. The early “Left Bros” there will be surprisingly few, unless some Nintendo warehouse is unearthed some day. I think VGA pop numbers from a few years ago were like 8-10? A few more have surfaced, but nothing crazy.

Just saw the pic now. Thanks!

I thought it was the box, but nobody could tell if it was still factory sealed? I wouldn’t doubt anything with him, though, he definitely has some crazy shit.

My two cents right now is this: 1. Pop reports really should be out, at least where pre-2000 systems are concerned. There is more than ample time and sample size elapsed to do so. However, I think pop reports (at least for the 8-64 bit eras) will have the opposite effect many speculate. There is a lot of information people like Pat assume (for example, that there are “hundreds of sealed first print Mario 3s because there are a bunch of CIB) that is inaccurate. There’s nothing wrong with the assumptions, and they are often completely rational, but sealed has its quirks. For example, I assumed finding an original run (first release) Skyrim for 360 (less than 10 years old) would be a piece of cake, but it took me somewhere between 6-12 months to finally nab one. One thing a lot of sealed collectors learned quickly the past few years is that what was considered “common” can require a new frame of reference quickly. I’d love pop reports to be out yesterday so we can compare them to, say, comics, Pokemon, or sports cards. Given all this in particular, think it is a massive self-inflicted wound to not release one because it leaves so much room for uninformed (not being used as a pejorative) speculation. 2. It would be of tremendous benefit for the buyers of the massive sales to identify themselves. If anyone is looking for 6 figure purchases (or many items at all in graded collectibles) to be “for the love of the game,” they are setting themselves up for disappointment. These are largely investments. Collectibles, crypto, even real estate, different sides of the same coin. But, given the crazy fast rise, the longer buyers remain in the dark, the bigger the risk they will hurt their own value. I do in fact know who one of the large value buyers is, but it’s really up to him/her to make that call on identification. As @jonebone has said, video games grew too fast in a vacuum, but we are now in an era where other collectibles/bitcoin have shot straight to insanity as well. Jordans and Charizards (both of which have certainly have exponentially larger populations than video games btw), which were already parts of established markets, have also gone nuts. Video games basically skipped established and went straight to insanity, but I believe that’s more a function of timing than anything. Had WATA opened in 2006, this would not have happened as it has.

Is he drinking syrup?

Erectus Gigantis!

Ok Gloves, video game play time is over. Everyone back to fighting.