jonebone

My take: Extremely soft across the board.  Good for collectors but I assume cosigners are quite disappointed after the July bar was set.

I thought the summer auction was just too loaded but the market didn't care and absorbed it all quickly with ease. This is another long and loaded one, right after Goldin and right after CL.  It appears that the market can only absorb so much and people are getting more selective.

But HA is not only doing their quarterly Signatures, they've expanded their lineup to be more frequent (almost bi-monthly), but splitting them out between showcase auctions (such as NES thru N64 or "Modern" = Xbox/PS2 forward) and Signatures inbetween.  I like that approach more, more frequent but smaller auctions.  This is just too much all at once, especially with more copy cat auction houses coming on and having their auctions.

My personal picks

Most surprising: Tomb Raider 9.4 A+ PS1 $102K, really expected a cooldown on that title like Marios / Zeldas / RPGs / Etc.
Honorable Mentions: 9.8 A++ NBA Jam Genesis $31.2K, 9.8 A++ DKC Made in Japan $52.8K

Biggest letdown from Expectations: RE1 Longbox 9.6 A+ $264K (Expected $500k+ easy)

Good "deals":
Metal Storm NES 9.6 A $3,960
Mario World SNES 9.4 A $144K

If you remember my comments on the last auction, I said that $1.56M Mario 64 9.8 A++ over $360k Super Mario World 9.4 A+ was an absolute travesty.  Mario World in 9.4 or higher box sealed is going to be rarer than 9.6 or higher Mario 64s.  And as suspected, the Mario 64 9.6 A++ barely holds $100k and Mario World 9.4 A still holds $140k.  The Mario World has a much more stable floor indeed.

Sports have been up awhile, remember the Madden Genesis CE went for $50k and made the cover of that HA signature catalog.  Even that original Jordan Vs. Bird $6k or $7k raw sale on eBay is probably close to a year old by now. I still think they have plenty of room to run of course, but it's not like they've still been sitting for peanuts as they were for the longest time.

6 hours ago, OptOut said:

Ugh, I really hate the way that seal is folding down at the top of the 9.4 Sonic, really distractingly ugly IMO.

That's factory issued, not a flaw.  I sold a 85+ Golden Axe 2 a couple years ago with same flaw.  It was even more severe with how much the tube top opening showed on the face of the game.

11 hours ago, KarateBoy2k3 said:

You are correct that this list isn’t 100% comprehensive but I do think it’s statistically significant. I leaned into the  general rule of thumb for the Large Enough Sample Condition is that n≥30 (IIRC the sample was n=46). I would also note that your two additional examples broadly reflect the dollar weight averaged decline: you bought two games for $1900 that previously sold for $3050.

That said I’m happy to update the post with additional example to make it more of a data base vs. representative analysis. 
 

I would also LOVE your feedback on my assumed average mark up by VGA grade. I’m relying on the small sample set that is my own experience and I know you’ve been around for years.  

I just got my hands on HA’s Wata sales database and am working on a cross-grade value analysis to complement your prior work. To be clear: my goal is to see at what grade are values about equal between Wata and VGA (not what they would cross grade at).

Do you think your prior cross grade post still holds true a few years later? Or has the grading criteria changed? My observation is that a VGA 85 and 85+ have a very wide range of outcomes when it comes to condition. Probably a very strong 85+ is the best deal on the market, but there are numerous examples (at this auction) of multi-corner poke 85+s that I doubt would hit the “sweet spot” 

Hey, glad to see the analysis and would love to see it updated.  A few comments to your questions:

1) N >= 30 is a good sample set on a large data set, but if the data set is only 46 items I'd argue it isn't sufficiently large (and the possibility of cherry picking).  You didn't exclude the -76% data point, so I wouldn't exclude +100% data point either.  I'd run the analysis on the entire data set and let people choose if they are excluding anything themselves.

2) VGA markup by grade isn't a science, rule of thumbs aren't that great.  For a game with sealed cases 85 to 85+ is negligible as 90s (or even 90+ / 95) will pull the strong prices.  For a game with little graded copies, the difference between 85 and 85+ could be double or higher.  I get what you're trying to do here, but the best comps will be same grade to same grade.

3) I've heard rumors that the crossover article will be updated at some point as Wata scales.  Not sure how much truth there is to that though.  But remember, the grading criteria is very system specific.  I'd say that article is decent for cardboard crossovers, but disc based systems may have little to no applicability.  The grading metric on PS1 or Gamecube / newer is really night and day at VGA / Wata between manual creasing / centering issues, etc.  VGA Is all wrap on newer stuff but Wata is much more focused on manufacturing flaws.

Hey I work with data for a living too and applaud the effort. Good to see, but I know this isn't an all inclusive population. For example, I won U90 Alien 3 this time for about $1200 that was $2500 last time. Also I won a Starfox Assault 90 last time around $550 that was $700 this time. Not sure what else is missing from the list, and excluding "outliers" here is not fair if being unbiased. You didn't exclude any that bombed...

End of day, analyzing data is easy with time but drawing meaningful conclusions is the more challenging part. My take is that the main consignor is famous for having high grade dupes. This auction showed that many of sales from June were one of multiples, with likely higher or equal grades appearing 3 months from now. Some buyers took notice and prices that had first to market advantage no longer had that.

Lots of great deals and very nice grades, but some head scratchers as well. I'd say it went about as expected overall, no meaningful change in market direction.

On 10/21/2021 at 4:45 AM, austin532 said:

I still have 12 more to open that aren't on the list.

Break Time
Faxanadu
Goal!
Greg Norman: Golf Power
Jeopardy
Jeopardy 25th Anniversary Edition
Krusty's Fun House
Laser Invasion
Rounball
Star Wars
Super Jeopardy
Super Mario Bros. 3.....maybe.
 

You've mentioned some of those titles for over a year plus now.  I even remember passing on Greg Norman's that were sitting on Amazon at $50 new (3 copies) around that time frame.  Are you going to actually open anything or what?

It absolutely affects grade, but can possibly be fixed sometimes.  It also can come loose in shipping (after grading even) so it's a tough one to judge.

8 hours ago, ThePhleo said:

Here. Have two.

No poster in Battleship very disappointed in that one.

Very nice ones for the list.  I'm partial to Battleship myself, I wouldn't have even opened that one!

You just have to use your own eyeball test on the crossovers. Thankfully I collect both scales.  So if I buy a "bad 85" that isn't worth crossing, I'm completely content owning it as an 85.  I don't really like owning 80+ or below on VGA though, and I don't really like owning anything below an A seal on Wata, which can even be suspect at times.

3 hours ago, Dr. Morbis said:

Thanks a bunch for another great addition    Can you please double check the code on the manual: you have the Fun House code listed but I'm assuming it's supposed to be EM with a star...  (the pic it too blurry for me to tell)

Correct, sorry about the typo in the copy / paste...

4 hours ago, SethA said:

They've gone up for different reasons.

Carts have gone up because during the pandemic more people are gaming because they are home more. Carts are clearly not going up because of grading because at this point very few of the games being graded by the six or seven grading houses out there are loose carts.

Talking about whether prices going up is "okay" or not is a red herring—a trap. When I said that prices had gone up for CIB over 150% in 2 years and that that was insane, my point was that it was and is unusual and that it did and is pricing people out of a hobby they have enjoyed for decades. That's what the video the OP was writing about was clearly discussing—not whether he had gotten lucky at conventions in the past or whether he properly appreciates his friends and spending time with them. Because no one specifically has a "right" to any particular hobby (in the legal sense), it is sort of impossible to say whether it is morally okay when prices explode; it is not, however, difficult to say that it is sad for many people, unless you lack empathy—in which case one will simply bathe oneself in self-justifications perpetually.

The gentleman in the video certainly did talk a lot about "eBay plus," and I can't speak to whether it is a good idea to buy games at a convention (though having been to many conventions I will agree that prices obviously should be lower at conventions than outside them, as it is logically absurd when they are higher—it defeats the theory of how/why you can convince people to spend a lot of money to come to a convention in the first place) or how the prices at TMG this year compare to eBay right now. But I don't think any of us doubted this man when he said that prices were higher than they had been previously (pre-2019) and that games he previously could have afforded he now cannot. Even the OP did not call this man a liar.

My nit to pick with the other poster was not about whether it is okay for prices to go up or down but whether he was misrepresenting this man's basis for being concerned about his ability to continue in the game-collecting hobby. You can justify price changes however you like, and you can pretend that extraordinary price changes with an obvious cause are just part of the normal up and down of the collectibles industry even when you know they are not and are specifically caused by speculators, but it's not going to bring back into the hobby people who were priced out of it.

The reason Jonebone and others are struggling to sell many of their games is that there aren't enough low- or mid-range buyers—and the reason there aren't enough buyers of this sort is because everyone but millionaires and resellers is getting priced out of the hobby, even as resellers like Jonebone celebrate every new price record set. They can keep shooting themselves in the foot interminably if they like, that's not my business.

First off, I don't know you, you don' t know me (clearly), and many of your assumptions are way off.  I'll briefly explain some of the woeful inaccuracies here.

1) 150% in 24 months is nothing.  Plenty of times over the past years games have jumped 200 / 300% or more in a month or two in crazy spikes.  If that guy has been collecting for years like he claims, surely he's seen some of them.  Sometimes it was blamed on a Youtube review, sometimes a re-release (think what Pokemon Go did to original Pokemon prices, something like $50 CIB to $150 CIB over night), sometimes an NA hype post, etc. 

2) We're all priced out!  It's hard to feel sympathetic for a guy who can't afford the $100 to $250 CIB when I'm looking at 4 figure sealed games that are now 5 figures or even 6 figures!  One can still afford to collect lower value stuff at a slower pace (save better, liquidate better, budget better, etc.) but in the other case you're making life altering decisions or just changing the direction you collect entirely (CIB vs Sealed, Loose instead of CIB, etc.)  You can't speak to this man in a vaccuum like he's the only one priced out and the rest of us aren't.

 3) Most people aren't struggling to move their games.  Every time I list a wave on eBay at least one is side dealed in 24-48 hours.  Ebay is merely a fraction of my sales and good stuff still moves pretty quickly direct.  Overseas buyers are extremely numerous as well.  You've talked about tracking stuff, but public sales are only a fraction of the market.  Your best attempt to monitor market pulse is watching where the weekly ebay auctions end.  

4) Last but not least, if you think I'm a reseller who hypes the market, you clearly don't know me.  I've been at this since 2008 and I'm a collector who only resells to fund the hobby.  There are so many buyers spread out across the globe and once you make connections, it's very easy to move good stuff.  The only ones truly hyping stuff are the auction houses, I don't get that vibe on social media at all (unless you want to talk VHS, that's a whole nother topic).  A lot of the good stuff still sells privately without prices being disclosed.

1 hour ago, Dumars2001 said:

That my be true, but I do sincerely feel bad for the "Average Joe" collector in today's video game hobby. It seems like they are being priced out of the hobby. This guy (YouTuber/collector) seemed like a nice guy that was genuinely bummed out about the state of the hobby and not buying a single video game at a video game expo.

Yes, you are right about the graded games just being there for marketing purposes. I did read somewhere that Goldin Auctions had a booth there with graded games to promote them for their second video game auction coming in the near future.

But he may have just had unreasonable expectations.  

I'd argue that you go to a game convention for the experience, meeting people, hanging out with friends, etc.  And he did all of that, he showed a car full of his buds and playing arcades, etc.  

If you're just looking for deals, I'm sure those evaporate pretty quickly first thing Friday (underpriced), or maybe have a little bit of haggle room on Sunday with vendors not looking to take stuff home.  But I would never go to a convention expecting to find smoking deals personally.  You're buying from people who know what they have.  Maybe he was spoiled in the past from getting lucky.

21 hours ago, Dumars2001 said:

I came across this fun little video today on Youtube. Thoughts?

 

He's just a loose cart / old school gamer complaining about graded games, what do you expect?

But yes, I wouldn't expect many graded games to actually sell at those conventions.  It's more about a marketing trip for people, they can just expense all of the costs on their taxes and offset income.  Plus you get to hangout / meet some people, have a couple dinners, and life goes on.  

33 minutes ago, mlbfan10 said:

I had my first order from late February pop today, got the deep badge email and both games are 9.0 or higher graded but when I check my grades/grade details, it's empty. Is there a delay in getting grades after getting the deep badge email?

Yes, your items can be in the post grading phase for months. They do not become available until the games ship back.

I'm on a roll, two new adds for the list in two weeks.  Another Hi Tech:

Chessmaster, The (Oval Seal)

Box: NES-EM USA (Date Code 00403 on inner flap)
Cart: NES-EM-USA
Manual: NES-EM-USA*
Nintendo Power advert: PMG-AA-USA
High Tech Expressions Registration Card: HIT-EM-US
Hi Tech Expressions Poster: HIT-NES-US

Textured Black Dust Cover

17 hours ago, madmozz said:

You really think that high? I am kind of new to this& those numbers just seem surreal when an opened one is $200, are they really that kind of rare? I am just trying to educate myself.

Did you see the horrible jewel case sell for $14.6k on eBay?  Rusted staple, multiple cracks, probably a 6.5 to 7 A / A+ at best.  That is a game that no one should have wanted due to condition, believe it was being sold $40K OBO on social media before he had to let it go to auction.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/194390468611

So yes, a game that no one should have wanted went for $15k.  The first print in Mint shape, well listed on an auction house in front of tons of people with 6 and 7 figures of spending?  In a condition that everyone would want?  You'll see where it winds up.

42 minutes ago, madmozz said:

Really? I just looked and it's at 52k already I figure it will top out at 100k at most, but what do I know? My initial thoughts of 20-25k was blown out of the water, I was just hoping everyone was so into MARIO & N64 that the PS1 games might still slip through, I mean it's rare no doubt ( which imho Mario is not) but I didn't think the interest or big money was onto PS1 just yet, seems I was wayyyyyyy off as this game might break a few records...damn!

Yes you're way off.  There's not a snowball's chance in hell it goes under $300k.

9 hours ago, tidaldreams said:

100k for RE longbox? nah, it's going over 1M.

*Should, if the Mario 64 is setting the bar.

At minimum, there is no doubt in my mind that's a $500k game today.

10 hours ago, RegularGuyGamer said:

Idk man, I guess the majority of people who push decent numbers on a yearly basis won't change but there are a ton, 85% of users, that don't get close to the current threshold. 

I know most of the people on here don't go to yard sales or flea markets anymore but if you saw the people who are buying video games, you'd be shocked. They're all basically homeless, clueless, largely over 55 and buying the entire lot regardless of what's included. 

I would saw of the 5 or 6 times I got beat on games this year, it was all to people who are the absolute salt of the earth. Those types of people are definitely out if they need to be bothered to keep records of anything or they're the people who are going to get smacked for the net costs and swear off online sales.

I know a lot of trash people only came around to the idea of selling online in the last 2-3 years. I am willing to bet all of those people are back to cash only and their buying slows down considerably after some high dollar video games sit in the sun for an entire summer 10% under ebay prices. 

For one, of that 85% you mention, how many are up to date with tax law?  Half?  Those people will keep churning as normal and will get a surprise 1099 that they either ignore or make up numbers for if they aren't tracking.

Keeping records isn't required... it's only there to defend you in an audit.  Of course everyone should but I guarantee a lot of people don't and won't.  If you're just going from memory and estimate you paid $50 for a $100 game you sold, no one is going to care.  And an audit isn't guys in black suits showing up at your door, most of them are just via mail.

Sorry to be so brutally honest but it's a simple function of time and people.  This change that everyone is bickering about is going to overload an already extremely strained system where they are woefully understaffed.  Especially in a remote working environment now.  They can't just triple their workforce overnight, so those same core group of people get triple the work.  That means even more reason to only focus on blatantly off stuff (1099 income not reported, extremely high deductions, etc.) or very large income, or severe income swings (making tons more in one year than before).

So if this scares anyone out, so be it.  If you're actually having fun or need any of that side money then you'll have to evolve and after one year you'll see it's not a big deal.  People are always resistant to change but once change is made they adapt pretty quickly. 

Nothing will change.  Just like how people swore they'd quit eBay after they forced managed payments a year ago and guess what, ebay still churning as usual.  And count me in the group that absolutely hated the managed payments change (resisted as long as I could), but once I hopped over I'd never go back.  Set up the separate checking account and it was much easier.

Also, don't be scared of Government workers, they're normal people like you and I who want a 40 hour work week and nothing more.  About 50% of them are just doing the minimum too, or they'd be in private industry making more.

Those people are going to go after big dollar audits to maximize the return on their time, or returns that are obviously wrong (capital gains not reported despite your bank giving you a form, 1099s not reported, people claiming high amounts of deductions (home office use), etc.

If you're more or less honest and reporting fair amounts then you'll be fine.  If you had $10k of sales and reported and $11k of costs (expenses, COG, etc.) you'd be a bigger target (but still severely low percentage).  If you have $10k of sales and report your COG as $1k, $2k, $3k, $4k, etc.  they aren't going to know or care.

End of day we all accept some level of risk.  You have a risk of dying every day you hop in a car.  You have a risk of getting COVID everytime you go out.  And you have a simlarly low level or risk when you self report your 1099 income as long as you are matching top level.  Take that for what it's worth.

On 10/1/2021 at 11:25 PM, Nintegageo said:

Wild Guns

Came to say this one.

2 hours ago, CodysGameRoom said:

@epiczail you eye roll but in all seriousness, I don't think my opinions on the subject are completely invalid. Do you? I feel comfortable continuing to share my opinions here. Anyone is free to debate me, which they have, and I've enjoyed it. I see all sides of this debate, for what it's worth.

It's like explaining collecting to a non-collector.  Are you able to do so or do most non-collectors in your social circle just kind of nod there head and say "okay"?  Non-collectors can't really relate to collecting mentality.

Same concept here, non-graded collectors can't really relate to graded collecting.  You either get it or don't.

In it's most basic form, if you have an eye for condition and titles, the cost of grading more than pays for itself.  You either choose to realize the profit or hold it.

Said another way, let's say you get a kick out of finding a $500 game for $100 and keeping it forever.  You could realize that $400 profit or just keep and enjoy it.

Same concept here, if you can pay for grading on the $100 item and turn it into $500, why not?  The money is more than worth it there.  You keep the graded item and never realize it or you sell it and realize the profit.

It's really as simple as that.  That is why I send games to grading companies that are severely backed up.  Whenever they get back in hand it will always have been worth it due to the condition and type of games I'm sending.

I have one of these and thought I asked you about it a year or two back.  Sign market is hit or miss, probably about 1k plus or minus as retail value.  Though pics don't do it justice, this thing is massive.

I think the 9.6 is a bit generous with multiple corners, but they're small and it's probably generally a 9.4 on their scale.  9.2 is more significant wear than that.

2 hours ago, 0xDEAFC0DE said:

There's usually a date code in the manual as well. It can be found in the bottom corner on one of the last of the pages. Even Zelda usually has a manual date code despite also not having box flap date codes. Here is an example:

Thanks, date code is 01129 in that case.